Iranian authorities have accused former top nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian of releasing classified information (Robert Newald/Getty Images). IAEA to Report Some Progress on Iran, Diplomats Say Diplomats close to the International Atomic Energy Agency said a highly anticipated report on Iran’s nuclear program is expected to note some cooperation from Tehran in disclosing its past nuclear activities but that some important questions might be left unanswered, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 13)...Full Story

Pakistani Military Likely to Secure Nuclear Arsenal if Musharraf Government Collapses, Analysts Say Analysts say U.S. prospects are poor for securing Pakistani nuclear weapons in the event of a government collapse, but the nation’s military would almost certainly prevent Islamic extremists from acquiring the weapons, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Nov. 13)...Full Story

U.S. Reports Progress on North Korean Uranium Issue U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said today that work continues to resolve Washington’s suspicions that North Korea has operated a uranium enrichment program for nuclear weapons purposes, Reuters reported (see GSN, Nov. 13)...Full Story

	Wednesday, November 14, 2007

IAEA to Report Some Progress on Iran, Diplomats Say Diplomats close to the International Atomic Energy Agency said a highly anticipated report on Iran’s nuclear program is expected to note some cooperation from Tehran in disclosing its past nuclear activities but that some important questions might be left unanswered, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 13). The report from IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei was expected as early as today. The U.N. Security Council is likely to use the agency report on Iran’s nuclear transparency and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana’s separate report on continued Iranian uranium enrichment efforts in determining the timing and severity of new sanctions against the country. Diplomats said Solana would almost certainly report that Iran has continued to refuse to halt its uranium enrichment program, which Western powers suspect is producing nuclear weapons fuel but Tehran insists is aimed solely at power production. IAEA diplomats said ElBaradei’s report would probably find that Iran has made some progress on boosting nuclear transparency. Western powers fear that such a finding could bolster an argument put forward by China and Russia that new Security Council sanctions would compromise Iran’s cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog.  The West has worried that Tehran might seek to sustain Chinese and Russian opposition to a third round of sanctions by offering a certain level of cooperation, Reuters reported.  Iranian leaders, theoretically, could then delay responses to IAEA inquiries while they stockpile weapon-grade uranium. “We may well see some clear cooperation from Iran but it's unclear whether it will be enough to actually move forward in the ‘work plan,’” said one Western diplomat in reference to details on Iran’s nuclear program that Tehran promised to gradually disclose in August. Diplomats also said Iran might have handed IAEA officials classified documentation on its uranium-enriching centrifuges that could allude to Iranian attempts to use its enrichment process for military ends.  The diplomats were uncertain whether IAEA officials were allowed to interview leaders in Iran’s nuclear program thought to be connected to the country’s military establishment, or whether the officials viewed laboratories developing a new line of high-speed P-2 centrifuges.  To date, Iran has relied on older, less reliable P-1 centrifuges for its uranium enrichment work. “Whether everything was put on the table (by Iran) that needs to be there remains to be seen,” said an EU diplomat. Meanwhile, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Iran did not turn down a request by ElBaradei to meet with Iranian nuclear officials this week before completing his report. “This is false.  He has a standing invitation to meet senior officials. He contemplated accepting it but due to conflicting schedules he decided to do this visit at a later time,” said IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming (Mark Heinrich, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Nov. 13). Iranian Concession Iran has given IAEA officials a long-sought document that describes shaping uranium into hemispheres to form the “pit” of a nuclear weapon, the New York Times reported today. Iranian nuclear officials did not explain why they held the document or their plans for its use.  U.N. nuclear watchdog officials had previously examined the document inside Iran, but have pushed for two years to obtain a copy to study in detail. The nuclear core instructions are not likely to flesh out the agency’s understanding of Iran’s two-decade nuclear history, but Iran is likely to refer to their release as an example of its full cooperation with the nuclear agency, the Times said. The Iranian move is expected to be included in ElBaradei’s report. Iran obtained the instructions as part of a 1987 transaction with the nuclear smuggling ring run by Abdul Qadeer Khan, who was then a top Pakistani nuclear scientist.  The deal also included uranium enrichment equipment (Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, Nov. 13). U.S. Intelligence Review In Washington, U.S. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell said yesterday that an intelligence estimate on Iran’s nuclear program would be completed by the end of November, the Washington Post reported. He said the report’s completion has been delayed by information obtained in late spring that required officials to rethink some of the estimate’s conclusions. “We had more information that inserted some new questions, so the effort has been to sort that out,” McConnell said, adding that the government would not release an unclassified report of the estimate’s primary findings under a new administration policy (see GSN, Oct. 29). McConnell said he aimed “to present the clinical evidence and let it stand on its own merits with its own qualification,” implying that it would include dissenting opinions.  “There are always disagreements on every national intelligence estimate,” he said. When asked how he would react if the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush misused the estimate for political purposes, he said, “If it were cherry-picked in an inappropriate way, then for me there's a professional obligation to object, and I would submit my resignation” (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Nov. 14). Mousavian Iran’s intelligence minister said today that Hossein Mousavian, a former top Iranian nuclear negotiator, has been accused of turning secret information over to the British Embassy and other foreign entities, the Associated Press reported. Mousavian worked as Iran’s chief nuclear envoy during the tenure of reformist President Mohammad Khatami.  He was detained for a short time in May on espionage suspicions, Iranian state media said. “He has been informed of the charges that he has given the British Embassy information contrary to the security of the country,” Iranian state media quoted Intelligence Minister Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehi as saying. The report did not give the starting date for his trial (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press/Google News, Nov. 14). Back to top       Pakistani Military Likely to Secure Nuclear Arsenal if Musharraf Government Collapses, Analysts Say Analysts say U.S. prospects are poor for securing Pakistani nuclear weapons in the event of a government collapse, but the nation’s military would almost certainly prevent Islamic extremists from acquiring the weapons, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Nov. 13). A growing political crisis in the nation has raised international concerns that terrorists could gain a nuclear capability if Pakistan’s domestic security deteriorates, and some reports have indicated that Washington has explored ways to secure endangered weapons (see GSN, Nov. 12). Some U.S. analysts, however, said such action would be difficult. “There's no good military option at all," said Daniel Markey, a former U.S. State Department official now with the Council on Foreign Relations.  Such an operation would create an "incredibly ugly scenario," he said. “Having some certainty of finding them is just, I think, out of the realm of reality,” he added. A better solution to ensuring nuclear security is to maintain “a good working relationship" with Pakistan’s army, Markey said.  “We shouldn't kid ourselves that we can work with Pakistan without working with their army and that doesn't mean we have to back a dictator.” Another expert said that the chances of extremists landing the nuclear weapons were slim, even if Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf falls. “Only if there's a complete breakdown in society, would there be an issue.  Even then, I think you'll find a cadre, a very loyal military who protect the assets because it's the patrimony of the country," said Leonard Spector, deputy director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. “The idea that somehow we're going to step in, I think that's a very remote possibility," he added. For his part, Musharraf yesterday insisted that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal was safe, thanks to special security measures installed in 2000. “We created a strategic planning division and we have a national command authority which is [the] overall organization institution into development and employment of strategic assets," Musharraf told Fox News radio.  The nation’s weapons were under “total custodial controls,” he added (Lachlan Carmichael, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Nov. 14). Back to top       U.S. Reports Progress on North Korean Uranium Issue U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said today that work continues to resolve Washington’s suspicions that North Korea has operated a uranium enrichment program for nuclear weapons purposes, Reuters reported (see GSN, Nov. 13). As part of its denuclearization agreement, Pyongyang is expected before the end of 2007 to provide details of all nuclear operations.  The Washington Post last week reported that North Korea hoped to prove that it never had a secret uranium program operating alongside its known plutonium weapons effort. “I can say we have made some progress but by no means have we solved the issue up to now,” said Hill, top U.S. negotiator at the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program. “We are continuing to work with them to resolve the matter.  I don’t think it’s very helpful to get into details at this point.  We are very much in the middle of a process,” he added.  “But I think (North Korea) understands very well that this matter must be resolved to mutual satisfaction.” The declaration of North Korean nuclear materials and technology is expected in the near future, Hill said.  “We want to make sure this list is very complete and we will be working very closely with the [International Atomic Energy Agency] on that matter,” he said (Mark Heinrich, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Nov. 14). Meanwhile, the prime ministers of North and South Korea began three days of talks today in Seoul, the Associated Press reported.  Before today premiers from the two nations had not met for 15 years. The session is part of South Korea’s ongoing reconciliation efforts with its neighbor to the north, which Seoul hopes will aid the denuclearization effort. The prime ministers are expected to discuss furthering a peace and economic cooperation agreement reached during an October meeting between South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il (Jae-Soon Chang, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 14). Elsewhere, six Japanese lawmakers left today for Washington, where they are expected to press the Bush administration against removing North Korea from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, Agence France-Presse reported. Pyongyang has sought to be taken off the list as one reward for its denuclearization efforts.  The move would allow it to receive U.S. economic aid and loans from organizations such as the World Bank. Tokyo argues that North Korea should resolve the issue of its abductions of Japanese citizens before coming off the list. “President [George W.] Bush has said the United States won’t ignore the abduction issue,” said senior lawmaker Takeo Hiranuma. State Department spokesman Tom Casey said yesterday that the terrorism list and abduction issue “are not specifically linked.  On the other hand, as Chris (Hill) has said repeatedly, we are very sensitive to this issue for the Japanese government.  It’s an important one.” Bush is scheduled to meet Friday with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Nov. 14). Back to top       South African Nuclear Site Attacked by Gangs Security officers exchanged gunfire with members of two groups of armed gangs making simultaneous attacks on South Africa’s primary nuclear research site last week, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Sept. 19). One guard was wounded in the attack on the Pelindaba Nuclear Research Center, said South African Nuclear Energy Corp. Chief Executive Rob Adam. The first gang group stole a computer after entering the facility.  The second group retreated under fire from a security guard. “My sense is that it must have been coordinated but there is no evidence of that yet,” Adam told the South African Press Association. Adam said the break-ins did not compromise the nuclear research reactor or any other equipment at the facility, but his agency has suspended the site’s security managers as it completes an internal investigation of the incident (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Nov. 13). Back to top       Israeli Target in Syria Continues to Raise Questions Uncertainty persists over the nature of a Syrian facility bombed by Israel in September, and international nuclear officials are examining the possibility that the site was a radar station, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 1). U.S. officials have suggested the Israeli air strike destroyed an incomplete nuclear reactor built with North Korean assistance, but Syria razed the site following the attack, making future investigations far more difficult. Satellite images acquired by one private expert suggested the site could have been intended to be a nuclear facility (see GSN, Oct. 26), but other analysts have demurred. “There hasn’t been anything that constitutes a definitive smoking-gun proof that this facility the Israelis attacked was indeed a nuclear facility,” said David Hartwell, an editor for Jane’s Country Risk in London. The International Atomic Energy Agency has tried to investigate the nuclear claims, but is also examining whether the attacked building could have been a radar base, according to a diplomat familiar with agency affairs (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Nov. 13). Back to top

Bus Driver Threatened With Tuberculosis Police in Nashville, Tenn., filed an assault charge against a man who apparently tried to infect a bus driver with tuberculosis, United Press International reported today (see GSN, Oct. 23). The man fell asleep on the bus, forcing the driver to wake him up as she neared the final stop, Metro Transit Authority safety manager Earl Rhodes told WSMV-TV. “He got upset and then he just got up and told her, ‘You know I have TB, and I have AIDS.’  She said he went into a coughing spell,” Rhodes said. The driver stopped the vehicle and evacuated all other passengers and herself.  The man was seen afterward coughing near the driver’s seat, UPI reported. It would have taken several hours of exposure to the man to have put anyone on the bus at risk of infection, health officials said (United Press International, Nov. 14). Back to top       Ex-Walter Reed Chief to Command Biodefense Research The U.S. Army said yesterday it has reassigned the general fired from his leadership post at the Walter Reed Army Medical Center to supervise biological defense research at Fort Detrick in Maryland, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 23). Maj. Gen. George Weightman lost his job as head of the Army’s top hospital March 1 following a series of Washington Post reports that uncovered widespread neglect of wounded U.S. soldiers at the Washington, D.C. facility.  During Weightman’s six-month tenure at Walter Reed, families of wounded personnel said they grew increasingly frustrated with the hospital’s unresponsive administration as soldiers suffered inside deteriorating buildings. The Army said earlier this year that top officials “had lost trust and confidence” in Weightman’s leadership following the revelations of neglect. However, Army spokesman Paul Boyce said that senior Army officials reconsidered their judgment of the two-star general when they examined his attempts to improve care for soldiers, veterans and families at Walter Reed and at the Army surgeon general’s office in Falls Church, Va., where he currently works as a physician. Weightman is expected before the end of November to take charge of Fort Detrick and of the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command, which operates at the Frederick, Md., installation. It was a widespread assumption that being fired from Walter Reed would bar Weightman from assuming another high-level post, said Paul Rieckhoff, executive director of Iran and Afghanistan Veterans of America. “The way Walter Reed turned out should be a career killer,” he said.  “If Weightman's getting a second chance here, I think the Army needs to explain why the turnaround happened” (David Dishneau, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Nov. 14). Back to top

Lawmakers Demand Safety Improvements at Blue Grass “Immediate and decisive action” is needed to guarantee that personnel at Kentucky’s Blue Grass Army Depot receive adequate training to prevent a release of dangerous chemical agents, three U.S. lawmakers said yesterday in a letter to the head of the Army Chemical Materials Agency (see GSN, Nov. 5). The letter follows reports last week that the Army site could face a criminal investigation related to storage of chemical warfare material.  The state Waste Management Division cited the depot for several operating failures, including improper labeling of waste and inadequate employee training on preventing chemical releases into the environment. “We are gravely concerned by the findings contained within this report.  As you well know, the weapons stored at the depot are among the most lethal in the entire U.S. stockpile and they are located in the heart of the local community.  This is a public safety issue of the highest order; for the local community and for the employees at the depot,” Kentucky Senators Mitch McConnell (R) and Jim Bunning (R) and Representative Ben Chandler (D) said in their message to acting CMA chief Dale Ormond. “We believe that these findings call for immediate and decisive action on your part.  We believe that you must put in place proper procedures to rectify the situation, as well as take what actions are necessary against any supervisors responsible for these egregious violations,” the letter adds. The lawmakers also expressed concern about “the culture at the [Blue Grass] Chemical Activity, one that allegedly stifles internal discussion and punishes those who raise concerns about depot safety practices.”  They called on Ormond to prevent retaliation against whistleblowers and dissenters and to ensure that their safety concerns are considered. “With so much at risk, ‘business as usual’ will not suffice,” the letter states (McConnell release, Nov. 13). Back to top

Russia Threatens Missile Deployment A top Russian general said today that U.S. deployment of missile defenses in Europe could lead his nation to place Iskander tactical missiles in Belarus, Reuters reported (see GSN, Nov. 9). “Why not?  Under the right conditions and with the corresponding agreement of Belarus, it is possible,” said Maj. Gen. Vladimir Zaritsky, Russian artillery and missile forces chief, according to ITAR-Tass. “Any action inevitably causes a reaction,” he added.  “And this is just the case with the elements of U.S. air defense in the Czech Republic and Poland.” Moscow has repeatedly said that its strategic security could be threatened by the Bush administration’s proposal to install 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic.  Washington counters that its plan is aimed at Iran rather than Russia. The Iskander has a range of 250 miles and can carry a conventional payload of more than 1,000 pounds. “Should Russia take a political decision to quit the [Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty], we will boost the military capabilities of these missiles, including their range,” Zaritsky said (see GSN, Oct. 18). The bilateral treaty bans Russia and the United States from stockpiling ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles with ranges between 300 and 3,400 miles.  When asked if the Iskander’s range might eventually top 300 miles, Zaritsky replied:  “Who knows that the motherland may order?” Reuters reported (Dmitry Solovyov, Reuters/Washington Post, Nov. 14).  Back to top       U.S. Considers Taiwanese Missile Defense Upgrades The U.S. Defense Department said yesterday it is considering a deal to make nearly $1 billion in upgrades to Taiwan’s Patriot missile defense systems, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 18). China criticized the possible sale before its formal announcement as giving the “wrong signal” to the administration of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, which has pushed for greater independence its mainland neighbor. Upgraded Taiwanese fire units would be able to launch either Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missiles or Patriot Guidance Enhanced Missiles, according to the Pentagon’s Defense Security and Cooperation Agency. PAC-3 interceptors employ “hit-to-kill” warheads designed to destroy targets using only the force of their impact, while GEM missiles use blast fragmentation warheads to eliminate enemy ballistic missiles.  Missiles would not be included in the upgrades. “The proposed sale will help improve the security of the recipient and assist in maintaining political stability, military balance and economic progress in the region,” the agency said in a message to Congress. The upgrades would also provide the Taiwanese fire units with new radios, radars, electricity-generating power plants and target identification and remote interceptor launch systems. “The total value, if all options are exercised, could be as high as $939 million,” the Defense Security and Cooperation Agency said in a statement. Nearly 1,000 Chinese short-range ballistic missiles are aimed at Taiwan, AFP reported.  China is also working on means to prevent an outside power from intervening in the early stages of a military conflict between the two sides. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao called the proposed missile defense upgrades a breach of an.assurance by the United States that it would reduce its weapons sales to Taiwan.  The Chinese government considers Taiwan subject to its authority. “We urge the U.S. side to implement with real actions its solemn commitments on the Taiwan issue … and stop sending wrong signals to Taiwan,” Liu said in a statement (Agence France-Presse/Google News, Nov. 13). Back to top

“Dirty Bomb” Requires Joint Response, U.K. Says The radiation poisoning of former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko in the United Kingdom has led one of the country’s leading health advisers to conclude that “no country is going to be able to cope by itself” with a radiological “dirty bomb” attack, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 5). Nigel Lightfoot, chief adviser to the head of the British Health Protection Agency, said the response to a dirty bomb incident in his nation would involve the European Union and the Group of Seven industrialized nations.  He added that France might provide treatment for some victims of radiation poisoning in the United Kingdom. More than 750 people were tested for exposure to polonium 210 last year after the highly radioactive element was slipped into tea consumed by Litvinenko, who died three weeks later.  Authorities reported that 130 people likely came into contact with the ex-KGB agent and that 17 people had a slightly elevated long-term cancer risk due to exposure. “With a dirty bomb, you'll find there will be more people exposed and requiring screening,” Lightfoot said. “It's become clear to most of us internationally, working through all this in international planning, that we'd all have to work together and help each other,” he said. The U.S. Homeland Security Department stated in 2005 that three dirty bombs detonated in neighboring cities could kill 180 people, injure 270 others and expose as many as 20,000 to radiation.  Such an attack could cost “up to billions of dollars,” the paper said. Lightfoot suggested British victims of a dirty bomb attack could be treated across national boundaries if their injuries are not life-threatening. “You might want to think about moving patients to somebody else's facilities,” he said, referring to France as a possible destination for contaminated patients.  “Why not?  They've got a very big radiation hospital in Paris” (Mark Trevelyan, Reuters, Nov. 13).   Back to top

About Newswire  |  Contact National Journal  |  Re-Use Guidelines

© Copyright 2008 by National Journal Group, Inc. The material in this section is produced independently for NTI by National Journal Group, Inc. Any reproduction or retransmission, in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of the National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.