Iranian nuclear envoy Saeed Jalili meets reporters today after talks with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana (Shaun Curry/Getty Images). EU Official “Disappointed” by Iranian Nuclear Standoff Talks European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana expressed disappointment with the outcome of his meeting today with senior Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, Agence France-Presse reported.  The session came as Solana prepared to brief the six world powers on negotiations to resolve the dispute over Tehran’s uranium enrichment program (see GSN, Nov. 29). “I have to admit that after five hours of meetings I expected more, and therefore I am disappointed,” Solana told reporters after the talks. Jalili delivered a more upbeat assessment on the meeting when he emerged from the London meeting minutes before...Full Story

North Korea Could Be Nuclear-Free in 2008, Hill Says U.S. Secretary of State Christopher Hill today set 2008 as a target for fully shuttering North Korea’s nuclear program, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 28)...Full Story

Iraqi Leader Demands Handover of Former Officials Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has asked U.S. President George W. Bush to give Iraqi authorities custody of the man known as “Chemical Ali” and two other former Saddam Hussein regime officials scheduled for execution, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 12)...Full Story

	Friday, November 30, 2007

EU Official “Disappointed” by Iranian Nuclear Standoff Talks European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana expressed disappointment with the outcome of his meeting today with senior Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, Agence France-Presse reported.  The session came as Solana prepared to brief the six world powers on negotiations to resolve the dispute over Tehran’s uranium enrichment program (see GSN, Nov. 29). “I have to admit that after five hours of meetings I expected more, and therefore I am disappointed,” Solana told reporters after the talks. Jalili delivered a more upbeat assessment on the meeting when he emerged from the London meeting minutes before. “For five hours now I have been talking with Mr. Solana and we have had good negotiations,” Jalili said.  “We agreed to continue with our negotiations and we also agreed to arrange for a meeting next month.” Solana also said that further talks would be arranged. “We will be in telephonic contact probably before the end of the month of December and if the circumstances permit we will meet and that will be agreed later on,” he said. Solana is expected to report on the talks to Germany and the five permanent U.N. Security Council members before their political representatives meet tomorrow in Paris to debate strategies for pressing Tehran to halt its uranium enrichment activities (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, Nov. 30). A representative of the Iranian delegation said before the meeting that Jalili would propose new ideas to Solana to address the nuclear standoff, and Solana spokeswoman Cristina Gallach said her boss would keep an open mind in the talks. Some Western observers said Iran was again offering minimal, late compromises to maintain Russian and Chinese reluctance to enact new Security Council sanctions while Tehran pursues its disputed nuclear work. “I fear we might be on a path that might bring us to war.  Diplomacy has not worked,” said Mark Fitzpatrick a senior nonproliferation studies fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “It is very clear that Iran is trying to acquire a nuclear weapons capability. … Most of the world agrees that it is unacceptable,” he said. In an address to religious figures in Tehran, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated again that his nation would not halt its nuclear work.  “Iran today, under the guidance and wisdom of the supreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) and its resistance, has become a nuclear nation,” he said (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Nov. 30). Even as they awaited Solana’s report, some of the six powers meeting tomorrow were already looking toward efforts to issue a third round of sanctions against Tehran, the Associated Press reported. “Work is already under way and will continue” on new penalties, British Foreign Secretary David Milband said yesterday. “There's a lot of discussion going on about the content of a resolution,” he said in apparent reference to differences between China and Russia and Western powers over the timing and severity of new sanctions.  Nonetheless, he said, “the marching orders ... are set out” (George Jahn, Associated Press/Washington Post, Nov. 29). In Russia, International Atomic Energy Agency officials today completed a five-day process of certifying and sealing the first shipment of Russian nuclear fuel bound for Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. Russian officials sealed the nuclear fuel containers under the supervision of the U.N. nuclear watchdog team, according to a statement by the TVEL defense factory in Novosibirsk. “IAEA inspectors, representatives of the Federal Atomic Energy Agency and the Iranian clients … witnessed the preparation of the nuclear fuel,” the statement said.  It did not say when the fuel would be shipped. Iranian Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari is expected to visit Moscow from Dec. 13-14 for discussions that would address the Bushehr plant, Interfax quoted Russian Foreign Ministry officials as saying. Jalili might also meet with Russian officials in Moscow within the next few weeks, RIA Novosti reported (Agence France-Presse III/Spacewar.com, Nov. 30). Independent analysts have questioned Iran’s insistence that its nuclear program exists only for power production when the country has vast oil and natural gas resources, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. Shannon Kile, a nonproliferation expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said Iran is unlikely to face an energy shortage in the near future whether it develops a nuclear energy capability or not. “Most Western experts do not think that there is a compelling, a persuasive economic rush now for Iran to be pursuing nuclear power,” Kile said.  “There is a consensus view among Western experts that it doesn't make economic sense for Iran to produce nuclear energy, and that oil and gas reserves are going to last longer than Iranians say,” Kile added (Farangis Najibullah, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Nov. 29). Meanwhile in Germany, prosecutors said yesterday that authorities had arrested a German-Iranian businessman suspected of transferring equipment “for military or nuclear purposes” to Iran, AFP reported. Police arrested the 48-year-old man Tuesday in Frankfurt, said a statement by the German federal prosecutor’s office. The statement identified the man only as “Mohsen V.” and said he is “strongly suspected” of violating German regulations on foreign trade (Agence France-Presse IV, Nov. 29). Back to top       North Korea Could Be Nuclear-Free in 2008, Hill Says U.S. Secretary of State Christopher Hill today set 2008 as a target for fully shuttering North Korea’s nuclear program, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 28). Hill is scheduled to travel Monday to North Korea, where he plans to review continuing work to disable the three primary facilities at the Yongbyon nuclear complex.  His trip is expected to precede the next full round of six-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear program, which could be held Dec. 6-8 in Beijing. “I would like to have some discussions on how things look for the next phase because I don’t want to do this job all my life,” said Hill, the Bush administration’s top envoy on the nuclear standoff since February 2005. “I sort of have in mind that 2008 is about the time we should finish denuclearization,” Hill said during a stop in South Korea.  He added that “we cannot leave this job unfinished.” North Korea has agreed to denuclearization in return for energy assistance and security and diplomatic concessions from the other nations in the six-party talks — China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States.  It pledged in October to disable the nuclear facilities and provide a full declaration of its atomic activities by the end of 2007.  Pyongyang would follow that by dismantling the plants and relinquishing plutonium stocks and nuclear weapons. “The D.P.R.K. is honestly fulfilling its commitment to disable those facilities within the year according to the agreement reached at the six-party talks,” the official Korean Central News Agency stated today.  “It will follow the moves of the U.S. and all other parties” (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Nov. 30). South Korean nuclear negotiator Chun Young-woo said today that fuel rods would not be removed from the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon until next year, Reuters reported.  The plutonium-producing reactor is one of the facilities undergoing disablement and would move closer to decommissioning once the fuel rods are removed, experts said. “A lot of preparation is needed to get the fuel out of there,” Chun said.  “Technically, it is nearly impossible to finish before the end of the year” (Reuters/Washington Post, Nov. 30). Back to top       Canada to Join U.S. Nuclear Energy Plan After months of reluctance, Canada has decided to join a U.S. initiative to promote nuclear power in the 21st century, Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier announced yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 17). The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership gained momentum two months ago when more than a dozen nations signed onto the effort begun by the United States early last year.  U.S. officials have argued that the global expansion of nuclear power would help combat climate change while meeting growing demands for electricity. Canada and other nuclear exporting nations, however, were noticeably absent from the list of new partners announced in September (see GSN, Sept. 19). Critics of the plan have complained that the program promotes the recycling of nuclear fuel, a practice that has historically meant the production of plutonium, a key nuclear-weapon material. U.S. officials, however, have countered that the partnership would seek to develop resistant technologies that would allow the efficient use of nuclear fuels without creating proliferation concerns (Bruce Cheadle, Canadian Press/Toronto Star, Nov. 29). U.S. arguments have apparently prevailed with Canadian leaders. “As the world's largest producer of uranium and a country taking steps to tackle climate change through the development of clean energy technology, Canada's responsibility is to help shape the safe and secure development of nuclear energy worldwide,” said Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn in a release yesterday. “Canada is recognized for its commitment to (nuclear) safety and nonproliferation,” added Foreign Minister Bernier.  “By joining this partnership, we are making sure Canada can continue to be an effective advocate for those ideals” (Canadian Natural Resources Department release, Nov. 29). Canadian officials had also been concerned that the GNEP plan could compel the nation to reclaim and store any spent fuel generated by its exports, but that issue has been resolved, the Canadian Press reported. “There is nothing in the GNEP statement of principles that compels Canada or any other country to take back spent fuel,” said Louise Girouard, a Natural Resources Department spokeswoman.  “Canada does not import spent fuel and we will not do so” (Cheadle, Canadian Press). Back to top       U.S. Tests Sea-Based Ballistic Missile The U.S. Navy yesterday conducted the 120th consecutive successful test launch of its sea-based Trident 2 D-5 ballistic missile, defense contractor Lockheed Martin said (see GSN, Aug. 17). The USS Henry M. Jackson submarine fired the unarmed missile while submerged in the Pacific Ocean as part of the certification process for deployment after being converted from carrying Trident 1 C-4 missiles to using the D-5. The Defense Department requires testing of the Trident 2 D-5 Strategic Weapon System to ensure its “safety, reliability, readiness and performance,” according to a Lockheed Martin press release. The string of test launches of the Lockheed Martin-built Trident missile dates back to 1989, a year before the missile was deployed.  It is the longest continuous series of successful trials for any large ballistic missile or space launch vehicle, Lockheed Martin said. The D-5 is a three-stage ballistic missile that uses solid fuel to carry multiple warheads to targets within a 4,000-mile range.  The missile is carried by 12 U.S. Trident 2 Ohio-class submarines and four British. Trident 2 Vanguard-class submarines (Lockheed Martin release, Nov. 29). Back to top

Experts Knock Analysis Backing Boston Biodefense Lab A National Research Council report found significant faults with the science used in a federal risk assessment that supported construction of a controversial Biosafety Level 4 laboratory in Boston, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 5). “On a pass-fail basis … it would have failed,” said University of Pennsylvania Veterinary Medicine School public health chief Gary Smith, a member of the council committee that prepared the report for the state of Massachusetts. “If it were a submitted article for a scientific journal, we would have rejected it,” said panelist Gigi Kwik Gronvall, a senior associate at the University of Pittsburgh Center for Biosecurity. The National Institutes of Health is providing funding for the facility at Boston University and three other BSL-4 laboratories around the nation, which would research potential bioterrorism agents and other highly dangerous diseases such as anthrax, smallpox and Ebola.  Residents near the Boston site have objected to the location, worried that an accident could expose them to infectious pathogens. State and federal lawsuits to date have not stopped construction on the laboratory, which is 70 percent complete. The experts’ report addresses the NIH “Draft Supplementary Risk Assessment and Site Suitability” analysis on the laboratory.  Experts knocked the federal agency for using the Rift Valley fever virus to compare the relative danger of the release of microbes in Boston’s Roxbury district versus a rural area.  Rift Valley is spread by mosquitoes and can be carried by cows, so using that particular disease created the impression that a rural area would be a more risky location for the laboratory than an urban site, the report said. The federal document also failed to consider how the poverty-stricken Roxbury district might specifically suffer from a pathogen release at the nearby laboratory.  As an “environmental justice” zone, the district must receive legal safeguards against additional threats to public health, the Post reported. The experts’ report is to be considered part of the “public comments” for the risk analysis for the laboratory.  The analysis itself is one component of the federal case for the laboratory. The report “should not be viewed as statements about the risks of proposed biocontainment facilities in Boston, or in cities more generally,” the experts wrote.  “The committee acknowledges the need for biocontainment laboratories in the United States, including BSL-4 laboratories, and recognizes that BSL-4 facilities are being operated in other major urban areas.” The National Institutes said it would “consider the comments along with all others.” “Kind of lost in all this is how important it is to study and find treatments and cures for infectious diseases,” said Boston University spokeswoman Ellen Berlin.  She said “the research can and will be done safely” (Rick Weiss, Washington Post, Nov. 30). Back to top

Iraqi Leader Demands Handover of Former Officials Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has asked U.S. President George W. Bush to give Iraqi authorities custody of the man known as “Chemical Ali” and two other former Saddam Hussein regime officials scheduled for execution, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 12). An Iraqi court in June convicted Ali Hassan al-Majid, former Iraqi Defense Minister Sultan Hashim Ahmad al-Tai and former Iraqi military deputy operations director Hussein Rashid Mohammed of participating in the deaths of up to 180,000 Iraqi Kurds during the late 1980s Anfal campaign.  They were sentenced to death for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. An appeals court upheld the sentences in September and under Iraqi law the men should have been put to death within 30 days. However, the three-man presidency council has refused to sign off on the executions, hoping to spare the life of al-Tai, whom Iraqi Sunnis largely see as a reputable military official forced to carry out the orders of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein during the Anfal campaign. The council’s failure to green-light the executions has raised questions over whether its approval is required under Iraq’s constitution to carry out the hangings with the government’s legally mandated timeframe. The United States, fearing a violent Sunni backlash in response to al-Tai’s execution, has so far refused to surrender custody of the former regime officials until the constitutional dispute is resolved. The standoff threatens to strain Baghdad’s ties with Washington, which hopes to continue minimizing sectarian violence at a time when it has slowed, AP said (Qassim Abdul-Zahra, Associated Press/Google News, Nov. 29). Back to top       Russian Plant to Begin Burning Chemical Waste Russia’s chemical weapon destruction facility at Maradykovsky is set in two weeks to begin operating three ovens for eliminating waste and empty munitions left over from disposal of chemical weapons agents, Tass reported (see GSN, Oct. 18). The Kirov Region plant uses chemical neutralization to eliminate the nerve agents sarin, soman and VX.  The process creates waste and leaves behind shells that must be cleansed. Maradykovsky began operations in September 2006 and has neutralized more than 21,000 weapons.  The site since 1953 had stored nearly 7,000 metric tons of weapons agents, 17 percent of the total Russian arsenal (Tass, Nov. 30). Back to top       Ex-Blue Grass Depot Chief Criticizes Whistleblower A former employee and whistleblower at the Blue Grass Army Depot in Kentucky was a “hot head” who left the chemical weapons storage site on his own terms, his one-time boss testified yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 28). Former chemical weapons monitor Donald Van Winkle sued for compensation under a federal law protecting whistleblowers, contending that the Army attempted to force him from his post after he publicly alleged that depot inspectors were not properly testing air quality inside munitions storage igloos. Former depot commander Lt. Col. George Shuplinkov told an administrative law judge yesterday that Van Winkle left his post voluntarily when the Army blocked him from working around the nerve agent storage units, the Associated Press reported.  Van Winkle said the military attempted to force him to accept a disability retirement after he broke his back. In the third day of testimony, Shuplinkov said Van Winkle had often approached him to discuss different employment issues, but he never drew attention to improper air testing in storage units holding VX nerve agent. “This was a ruse, a smoke screen for the real issue,” Shuplinkov said. He suggested the weapons inspector had a financial incentive for going public with the storage concerns and was aggrieved over not receiving a promotion. Shuplinkov also maintained that air testing at the Blue Grass facility is accurate in spite of some expert statements to the contrary. Van Winkle’s claims have led to a grand jury investigation and criticism of air testing at the depot by the Kentucky Environmental Protection Department, among other investigations, AP reported (Jeffrey McMurray, Associated Press/Lexington Herald-Leader, Nov. 29). Back to top

Tough to Assess Iran’s Missiles, Experts Say Assessing Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities is a task made difficult by spotty intelligence and international politics, the McClatchy News Service reported today.  The issue has come to the forefront following Iranian claims this week that the nation has developed a 2,000-kilometer-range missile (see GSN, Nov. 27). Confirming that assertion, or similar claims made by U.S. officials to support plans to deploy U.S. missile defenses in Eastern Europe, is nearly impossible, said one missile specialist (see related GSN story, today). “It's all based on conjecture and news stories and leaks from the intelligence community, and quite a bit of that might be right,” said Philip Coyle, a former Defense Department weapons testing official.  “But I don't think that means what the administration says it means, namely that Iran is preparing to attack the United States or Europe.” U.S. congressional analysts have also highlighted the difficulty of assessing Iran’s missile threat. “Some observers argue that although the U.S. position may be based upon a realistic assessment, it is also a worst-case analysis of the potential threat from Iran,” says a report this month from the Congressional Research Service.  “They argue that ‘with rare exception, this level of threat has rarely turned out to be the historical reality.’” While the United States could wish to play up the Iranian threat, so too could Iranian officials, said another analyst. “The Iranians overstate their current capabilities, but we all know this is done for internal propaganda more than for telling the people outside,” said Wael al-Assad, a disarmament specialist at the Arab League in Cairo.  “But, at the same time, this kind of language they are using is being used in turn by the American administration to overblow the necessity of a pre-emptive strike on the Iranians.” “It's extremism feeding extremism,” he added (Hannah Allam, McClatchy News Service/Miami Herald, Nov. 30). Back to top

Iranian Boast Backs Missile Defense Plans, U.S. Says Recent Iranian missile claims simply reinforce U.S. plans to deploy missile defenses in Eastern Europe, a senior U.S. military official said yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 28). “It shows a progression, a continuing progression on greater and greater ranges of missiles,” said Missile Defense Agency head Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.  An Iranian official this week claimed that his nation had developed a 2,000-kilometer-range ballistic missile capable of striking targets in Western Europe (see GSN, Nov. 27). “If what they are announcing is true, it also talks about a qualitative improvement in their capabilities,” Obering added during a visit to Paris (see related GSN story, today).  The Iranian assertion demonstrates “why we need to get on with missile defense,” he said (Associated Press, Nov. 29). Putin Moves to Suspend CFE Treaty Participation The U.S. goal of deploying missile interceptors in Poland and a missile tracking radar in the Czech Republic has triggered sharp Russian opposition. Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law formally suspending his nation’s participation in a European-wide arms control treaty effective Dec. 12, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 16). Russian officials have elected to use the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty as a lever to protest the U.S. plans.  European leaders have protested the linkage of the missile defense plans with the treaty, which restricts deployments of heavy weapons throughout Europe and Western Russia. “The [European Union] regards the treaty as the cornerstone of European security and is deeply concerned by the emerging uncertainties about the future viability of the treaty should Russia cease to implement treaty operations,” Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amada said yesterday in Madrid.  Portugal currently holds the rotating EU presidency. Such protests have so far had little effect. “Russia fulfilled the CFE provisions in good faith while NATO bases sprang up in Romania, Bulgaria, and the United States is prepared to install its antimissile defense system along Russia’s border,” said Sergei Mironov, speaker of Russia’s Federation Council, the upper house of parliament. Despite the formal suspension, Russia would not make any quick moves that would have been limited by the treaty, according to a senior Defense Ministry official. “The entry into force of the moratorium does not mean that Russia will immediately start redeploying troops on its flanks,” the official told Interfax.  “But we reserve the right to move our forces on our territory where we consider them necessary” (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Nov. 30). Back to top

Nuclear Smuggling Persists, Uranium Seizure Shows Nuclear analysts said yesterday the arrests of three men this week for allegedly attempting to sell 1 pound of uranium for $1 million reflects a resilient black market that has persisted in spite of international efforts to secure nuclear materials, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Nov. 29). While U.N. and think tank experts said that the powdered uranium might not have been sufficient to create a radiological “dirty bomb,” those following illicit nuclear trafficking said the attempted sale illustrated the ongoing threat that terrorists could acquire nuclear materials. “A pound here, a pound there, and pretty soon you have enough to assemble a crude radiological weapon,” said one U.N. official. If a terrorist eventually succeeded in their quest for nuclear material, “the consequences would be so catastrophic, the world would be a different place the next day,” said Richard Hoskins, who manages an International Atomic Energy Agency database of controlled nuclear materials that have been stolen or smuggled or gone missing. The agency recorded 252 such cases in 2006, about 85 percent of which involved losses or theft.  Not all missing material could be used in an attack, Hoskins said.  The number of registered cases for 2006 represented a 385 percent boost from 2002, although Hoskins told AP improved law enforcement and reporting efforts probably contributed to the increase. Slovak authorities described the material recovered from two Hungarians and a Ukrainian national as weapon-grade uranium from a former Soviet republic.  However, some nuclear analysts said that police photographs of the uranium’s radioactivity readings indicated that the material was less dangerous than claimed. “Uranium is not very radiotoxic,” said David Albright, a former IAEA weapons inspector who currently heads the Institute for Science and International Security. “The net effect of dispersing half a kilo of uranium — who cares?  Each person would get so little it would have no effect,” he said. Talk of a dirty bomb in reference to this week’s uranium seizure is “off topic,” according to researcher Alexander Glaser of the Science and Global Security Program at Princeton University. “Even naturally occurring uranium would be more effective than this in making a dirty bomb,” he said (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Nov. 30).   Back to top

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