U.S. national security adviser Stephen Hadley, shown in July, said a new intelligence report indicates that the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program could be solved without the use of force (Freddie Lee/Getty Images). Iran Stopped Nuclear Weapons Program, U.S. Intel Finds Iran has not operated an active military nuclear program for four years but its ongoing uranium enrichment efforts would allow it to produce a weapon between 2010 and 2015, according to a U.S. intelligence analysis released today (see GSN, Nov. 30). The latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which represents the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, represents an apparent change in opinion from the last report, according to the Associated Press.  The intelligence community argued then that Tehran was maintaining nuclear weapons development. “Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005,” according to the unclassified summary of the report...Full Story

U.S. Envoy Returns to North Korea U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill today returned to North Korea for bilateral talks on efforts to close down the Stalinist state’s nuclear program, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 30)...Full Story

War Game Finds Few Options for U.S. to Secure Pakistani Nuclear Arsenal During Crisis A secret war game conducted in 2006 by U.S. intelligence officials and military analysts found no acceptable options for the United States to forcibly intervene to secure Pakistan’s nuclear weapons stockpile if that country descends into political and military turmoil, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Nov. 26)...Full Story

	Monday, December 3, 2007

Iran Stopped Nuclear Weapons Program, U.S. Intel Finds Iran has not operated an active military nuclear program for four years but its ongoing uranium enrichment efforts would allow it to produce a weapon between 2010 and 2015, according to a U.S. intelligence analysis released today (see GSN, Nov. 30). The latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which represents the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, represents an apparent change in opinion from the last report, according to the Associated Press.  The intelligence community argued then that Tehran was maintaining nuclear weapons development. “Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005,” according to the unclassified summary of the report. One official said the report’s conclusions illustrate the success of international diplomatic efforts to constrain Iran’s nuclear program, AP reported. “This is good news in that U.S. policy coupled with the policies and actions of those who have been our partners appear to have had some success,” the official said.  “Given that good news we don’t want to relax.  We want to keep those pressures up. The estimate states, though, that Iran might ultimately move ahead with weapons development as a perceived boost to its national security and foreign policy goals (Pamela Hess, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Dec. 3). Iran appears to be “keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons,” the report states. The report “confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons,” national security adviser Stephen Hadley said in a statement.  “It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen.” “The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically — without the use of force — as the administration has been trying to do,” he added (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Dec. 3). Meanwhile, the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany have agreed to develop a third sanctions resolution against Iran over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment efforts, a French diplomat said Saturday “The six have agreed to examine the elements of a new resolution on sanctions,” the diplomat said after representatives from the six nations met in Paris. The diplomat said that Western powers decided this weekend to push for a compromise with China and Russia, which have questioned the need for new punitive measures against Tehran, AFP reported. “A compromise text will be worked out and should circulate between the capital cities concerned next week,” the diplomat said in reference to the governments of China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The French diplomat said the text of the resolution would be brought before the Security Council in New York for final approval once the countries agree on its details.  That could occur within the next several weeks, the official said (Christophe de Roquefeuil, Agence France-Presse II/Google News, Dec. 1). U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said today that U.S. and Chinese officials have moved closer toward agreement on sanctions against Iran, Reuters reported. “We were able, with the Chinese government, to focus on a number of areas where we would agree to sanctions,” Burns told reporters in Singapore.  “Now if we can bring the Russians on board, I think we'll have the makings of a third Security Council resolution,” he said. Snow in Canada prevented Moscow’s representative from reaching the meeting in Paris (Reuters/Washington Post, Dec. 3). The Saturday meeting came one day after nuclear talks in London between EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and new top Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.  The session was a “disaster,” according to the French source. “Solana left asking himself what the future of the negotiations could be,” the diplomat said (AFP II, Dec. 1). Jalili demanded that the sides scrap all past agreements made in the effort to resolve the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program, which the nation claims is intended only to generate energy but which Western nations suspect masks a weapons effort, the New York Times reported. Solana had expected the talks to proceed from the basis he established with Jalili’s predecessor Ali Larijani, who drove a hard bargain but remained open to substantive negotiations over nuclear issues. “Jalili said, ‘Everything in the past is past, and with me, you start over,’” one official said.  “He said, ‘None of your proposals has any standing.’” Several officials close to the discussions said Jalili began the meeting with a 90-minute diatribe invoking theology, God, his doctoral dissertation and the popular support by Iranians for the country’s uranium enrichment drive. “There is no longer an Iranian nuclear problem,” the official quoted Jalili as saying, adding that Jalili had declared that Iran would recognize only the International Atomic Energy Agency as a mediator in addressing nuclear disputes. “We have in front of us the real Iran,” the French diplomat commented, calling Iran’s new stance a clear signal that it is not open to compromise over its uranium enrichment program. “We can’t do business with these guys at this point,” said another official involved in the talks (Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, Dec. 2). Jalili defended his position at the meeting with Solana after he returned to Tehran Saturday, arguing that international powers should acknowledge Iran’s right to pursue nuclear work, AFP reported. “If some people have become disappointed because they cannot deprive Iran of its natural rights then this is another matter,” Jalili said (Agence France-Presse III/Google News, Dec. 2). Jalili was scheduled to meet with Russian officials today in Moscow, AFP reported. “Mr. Jalili will be traveling to Moscow tomorrow,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini.  “He will meet with senior officials about strategic affairs” (Agence France-Presse IV/Spacewar.com, Dec. 2). Back to top       U.S. Envoy Returns to North Korea U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill today returned to North Korea for bilateral talks on efforts to close down the Stalinist state’s nuclear program, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 30). The Bush administration’s top envoy to the six-party nuclear talks arrived in Pyongyang, where he is scheduled to meet with chief North Korean negotiator Kim Kye Gwan.  The two are expected to discuss Pyongyang’s declaration of its nuclear programs, which is due to be submitted in a matter of days. Hill said he is “looking forward to seeing the declaration soon,” the Xinhua News Agency reported. North Korea agreed earlier this year to issue the declaration and to disable primary facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex by the end of 2007, significant steps on its path to full denuclearization.  For relinquishing its nuclear program, Pyongyang stands to receive energy aid and diplomatic and security benefits from the other nations in the six-party talks — China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Dec. 3). A Japanese report yesterday indicated that disablement of North Korea’s only operating nuclear reactor would not be finished until the end of February, the Associated Press reported.  Sources told public broadcaster NHK that the delay would be caused by safety issues related to removal of fuel rods from the facility (Associated Press I/International Herald Tribune, Dec. 2). Hill reaffirmed Washington’s stand that the declaration should address North Korea’s suspected uranium enrichment program, AFP reported. “We’ll continue to have a discussion on that, with the understanding that I think we can resolve this matter by the end of the year,” Hill, who made his first trip to North Korea in June, told Xinhua. North Korea might indicate its commitment to complete denuclearization through what it declares in the document, AFP reported.  “Giving up an old facility like Yongbyon is not a huge concession,” said one diplomat.  “They may feel they can sacrifice it.” The amount of plutonium extracted by Pyongyang is a key piece of information expected to be released.  “The hardest part for the North will be to say what they have done in the way of explosive devices,” the diplomat said (AFP I, Dec. 3). The next full round of six-nation negotiations had been anticipated later this week in Beijing.  However, a high-level Japanese official said today negotiators are not likely to meet given the absence so far of the North Korean nuclear declaration, AFP reported. “The United States and North Korea have just started talks,” said Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi.  “It’s not a situation that would allow the next round to start on the sixth” of December (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Dec. 3). North Korea’s alleged uranium enrichment program and reports that the nation aided a suspected Syrian nuclear program (see GSN, Nov. 20) are significant obstacles to denuclearization negotiations, the Associated Press reported Saturday. Pyongyang has publicly denied operating a uranium program alongside its known plutonium-based weapons effort.  It has also rejected reports of nuclear involvement with Damascus. “Chris Hill’s credibility is really tied to the North Koreans coming clean on some type of uranium program,” said Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS think tank.  “If they don’t do that, it’s going to be extremely difficult” for the White House to garner approval for the denuclearization agreement (Foster Klug, Associated Press II/International Herald Tribune, Dec. 1). Providing details of any uranium enrichment efforts and support for nuclear programs in nations such as Syria are among the conditions that North Korea must meet in order to be removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, Agence France-Presse reported Saturday. The other new condition is detailing the amount of plutonium it has extracted, sources told the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper.  Washington had already listed North Korean nuclear disablement as a requirement for removal from the list, which would give Pyongyang greater access to the global financial market (Agence France-Presse III/Yahoo!News, Dec. 1). Present and former U.S. officials told the Washington Times that uranium enrichment centrifuges North Korea received through a Pakistani nuclear black-market operation might have ended up in Syria or elsewhere. The ring led by former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan provided Pyongyang with centrifuges in the 1990s, according to officials in Islamabad.  There are suspicions in Washington that North Korea might have passed the equipment to another nation (Kralev/Salmon, Washington Times, Nov. 30). Back to top       War Game Finds Few Options for U.S. to Secure Pakistani Nuclear Arsenal During Crisis A secret war game conducted in 2006 by U.S. intelligence officials and military analysts found no acceptable options for the United States to forcibly intervene to secure Pakistan’s nuclear weapons stockpile if that country descends into political and military turmoil, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Nov. 26). The United States has conducted several such exercises in recent years.  War planners used the event to consider questions such as the number of troops that might be necessary to secure the nuclear facilities and whether the sites would be effectively isolated or further endangered if U.S. bombers dropped tens of thousands of high-powered mines loaded with antitank and antipersonnel munitions on their surroundings. The 2006 game concluded that no satisfactory options exist to secure Pakistan’s nuclear holdings by force, according to a former Pentagon official who participated in the exercise.  “It's an unbelievably daunting problem,” said a former Defense Department official who participated in last year’s game. Participants in last year’s war game also concluded that the active consideration of such scenarios could hinder Pakistani cooperation with the United States.  The exercise was carried out without official oversight from any U.S. agency. The former Pentagon official added that existing contingency plans for such a scenario are in “very close hold” at U.S. Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Fla, but they do not address how to secure nuclear weapons stored in Pakistan’s rugged, mountainous areas or major cities. Former U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Robert Oakley said that U.S. officials continue to express confidence in existing nuclear security safeguards.  He said, though, that officials see no good options as they continue to examine the risks.  “Everybody’s scrambling on this,” Oakley said. The United States has spent tens of millions of dollars since 2001 to improve the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, but Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s recent moves to declare of a state of emergency and suspend Pakistan’s constitution has increased concern among U.S. officials about the country’s nuclear security. “The bottom line is, it's the nightmare scenario," said retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson, who participated in an earlier exercise that simulated a Pakistani governmental collapse.  “It has loose nukes, hard to find, potentially in the hands of Islamic extremists, and there aren't a lot of good military options.” Pakistani officials have concluded from the war games that the possibility of U.S. intervention in Pakistan “is a real threat now,” said retired Pakistani Brig. Feroz Khan, adding that Pakistan’s military has most likely created phony nuclear bunkers and mock nuclear warheads to discourage such intervention.  Khan estimated that Pakistan holds between 80 and 120 real nuclear warheads, about twice the number usually estimated by outside analysts. “It may actually make things worse, to attempt that sort of thing,” said Zia Mian, an expert on nuclear proliferation in South Asia and a physicist at Princeton University.  He added that U.S. military action to secure Pakistan’s stockpile “would really increase anti-Americanism,” among other negative side effects. Some proliferation analysts have expressed concern that one of Pakistan’s internal factions could move to obtain nuclear warheads, seeking them as symbols of authority rather than weapons likely to be used, if the Pakistani state collapses. “There is a lot of concern about this, and the less stable the government and the society become, the greater the concern,” said a senior U.S. intelligence official, adding that the U.S. intelligence community does not currently consider such a possibility to be an immediate threat.  “The good news is that Pakistan … takes this very, very seriously.” Exercises conducted in and outside the U.S. government have repeatedly concluded that cooperation of Pakistan’s government and military is necessary to keep its nuclear weapons secure, the Washington Post said. “Our best bet to secure Pakistan’s nuclear forces would be in a cooperative mode with the Pakistani military, not an adversarial one,” said Scott Sagan, a counterproliferation specialist at Stanford University (Thomas Ricks, Washington Post, Dec. 2). Back to top       U.S. Nuclear Modernization Plan to be Released The U.S. Energy Department plans this month to reveal its long-anticipated plan for reducing and modernizing the nuclear weapons complex, the Amarillo, Texas, Globe-News reported Friday (see GSN, Nov. 1). The department intends to operate a smaller, more efficient system of nuclear weapon plants and research laboratories, said Tom D’Agostino, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration. The new U.S. plutonium research and “pit” production center is expected to be located at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, although the Energy Department has not formally announced the selected site (see GSN, Nov. 16). The Pantex weapon assembly plant near Amarillo is expected to assume greater responsibility for taking apart aging U.S. nuclear warheads. “We expect the preferred alternative to be announced shortly in the month of December,” D’Agostino said.  “When we do that, we are going to describe the type of workload, the type of improvements we think we need to see in the complex that will sustain the complex at a reasonable size, at the right type of modernization level over the many years to come.” The Energy Department’s plan to eliminate 80 percent of the U.S. nuclear arsenal in future decades would create an expanded role for the Pantex facility, D'Agostino said. “That doesn't mean Pantex goes down by 80 percent,” he said.  “On the contrary, when you decrease the size by 80 percent, you're left with a chunk of warheads you've got to do something with.  Pantex touches every single one of those” (Jim McBride, Amarillo Globe-News, Nov. 30). Back to top

U.S. Looks to Limit Missile Defense Delay in Europe A senior U.S. Defense Department official expressed hope last week that budget complications could be resolved so that deployment of missile defense elements in Europe would be delayed by only six months, Defense News reported (see GSN, Nov. 7). Congress appears set to cut $85 million from the fiscal 2008 defense budget for construction of a missile interceptor site in Poland.  Lawmakers are expected to approve funding for the interceptors themselves, along with missile defense equipment and the planned radar base in the Czech Republic.  The price tag for the entire system has been estimated at $3.5 billion. Lawmakers have cited the absence of agreements with the Czech Republic and Poland on housing the installations as the basis for slicing the Bush administration’s funding request. However, the head of the Missile Defense Agency suggested the money could be reinstated if Washington can reach agreements with the two nations by the end of 2007.  That would limit the deployment delay to six months, said Lt. Gen. Henry Obering last week in Paris.  Interceptors could undergo flight tests in 2009 or 2010, he said.  The first interceptor could be declared service-ready in 2011 followed two years later by full system integration. To allay Russian concerns, the system might remain nonoperational until an Iranian missile threat can be proven (Pierre Tran, Defense News, Dec. 3). Should the system fail to materialize, one option for protecting Europe against missile attacks would be a sea-based shield involving a significant number of U.S. ships equipped with the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, Defense Daily International reported Friday. Rear Adm. Alan Hicks indicated, though, that he would not favor that option. “Certainly by the near-term capability, between now and 2015, that’s a lot of ships, and I wouldn’t recommend it,” Hicks, program director for the Aegis system, said last week in Washington. Given the location of the ships, their interceptors could “run out of juice” before hitting enemy missiles, Hicks said.  He said that Aegis-equipped ships could be deployed when available to support the planned ground-based European system (Defense Daily International, Nov. 30). Back to top       More Realistic U.S. Missile Defense Tests Planned The U.S. Missile Defense Agency plans more rigorous, realistic testing of missile shield elements following a spate of successful target missile interceptions, Aviation Week reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 15). “It is absolutely remarkable how far we’ve come,” said agency chief Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, who has overseen the multilayered system’s development since 2004.  “What we have to do now is to turn our attention to make sure we can fully wring out the system in a variety of operational and realistic scenarios.  And that is what we will be doing over the next couple of years.” Obering said the agency concentrated on conducting more thorough quality control and testing of its systems after it experienced malfunctions during field tests of prototypes as well as other technical shortfalls earlier in the decade.  In one botched test, the missile interceptor being vetted was unable to even launch from its silo. However, a former testing chief for the U.S. Defense Department has warned that the missile defense system’s development has been unacceptably slow. “At the rate they are going, ... it could take them 50 years” to test many of the system’s capabilities, said Philip Coyle, now a senior adviser for the Center for Defense Information. The missile detection systems and interceptors have not been proven operational at night, when they cannot depend on a targeted re-entry vehicle’s increased infrared signature in the light and heat of the sun, Aviation Week reported. The Pentagon has also not completed testing the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system’s ability to combat countermeasures that North Korea and Iran might have already incorporated into their ballistic missile technology.  Obering said the next test of the system would take place in spring 2008 and would be the first in five years to include countermeasures.  Out of 10 tests conducted since 1999, the system has completed six successful interceptions that destroyed their ballistic missile targets using the force of impact. Obering said that U.S. missile defenses can now stop a ballistic missile attack, although the system has shifted repeatedly between an operational configuration and a testing setup that would prevent commanders from responding to an attack using operational interceptor missiles. Coyle said a ballistic missile attack against the United States is likely to employ many more missiles than the system could stop in its current state.  U.S. missile defenses currently incorporate 20 interceptors at Fort Greely, Alaska, and three interceptors at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California (Amy Butler, Aviation Week, Dec. 2). Back to top       India Tests Missile Interceptor India’s military yesterday conducted a test launch of a new interceptor missile, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Nov. 27). The missile was fired off of India’s coast from Wheeler Island, 110 miles from the capital of the eastern state of Orissa, one official said. Indian sources said that yesterday’s test did not employ a target missile, but within the next few days the military plans to target a nuclear-capable Prithvi 2 in a final test of the interceptor (Agence France-Presse, Dec. 2). Back to top

Uranium Bust Investigation Could Last Months It could take several months to close the investigation on the attempted sale of 1 pound of uranium, Slovak police said Friday (see GSN, Nov. 30). Slovak and Hungarian authorities said last week that they had arrested a Ukrainian national and two Hungarians who attempted to sell 481.4 grams of a substance containing uranium 235, which is used in nuclear weapons, and naturally occurring uranium 238. Officials indicated the material came from a former Soviet state but would not say which governments would be approached as investigators try to determine the uranium’s source country, Agence France-Presse reported.  “That is internal information,” said Slovak police spokesman Martin Korch. The suspects are due to appear in court when the investigation is complete, Korch said.  They could face up to two decades in prison if convicted. The International Atomic Energy Agency is seeking information on this most recent attempted sale of radioactive material in Eastern Europe, AFP reported.  A Czech court in 2004 convicted two Slovak army officers of trying to sell uranium. Slovak authorities last week said the powdered uranium seized during the arrests was weapon-grade material, though experts have questioned that claim (Agence France-Presse I/NASDAQ.com, Nov. 30). One expert said he doubted the material could even be used for a radiological “dirty bomb,” which would use conventional explosives to disperse lower-grade radioactive material, the Czech News Agency reported Friday. “Preliminary examinations showed it was low-enriched uranium,” chemical laboratory chief Peter Novotny told Reuters (Czech News Agency, Nov. 30). The arrests have renewed discussions regarding the potential threat posed by dirty bombs. “The interest in a dirty bomb is to frighten,” emergency response doctor and WMD specialist Marc Lemaire told AFP.  “It is designed to hurt, of course, like all attacks, but the goal most of all is to terrorize.” Experts have said that such a weapon might cause little immediate harm to humans but could have long-term effects on the attack site.  “You can have an effective result by contaminating an area,” Lemaire said.  “But in what proportion?  It’s difficult to know beforehand.  But certainly you can create a huge panic.” Even when the panic wears off, the affected area could be placed off-limits for decades due to residual radiation contamination. “No one really knows the true effectiveness of that type of device,” as one has not yet been used, said researcher Georges La Guelte of the Institute for International and Strategic Research in France. Material for a dirty bomb could be easily found, experts warn. “Significant amounts of radioactive materials are stored in laboratories, food irradiation plants, oil drilling facilities, medical centers and many other sites,” Federation of American Scientists head Henry Kelly told the U.S. Senate (Michel Moutot, Agence France-Presse/China Post, Dec. 3). Back to top       Israel Guards Against “Dirty Bomb” Israel is increasing efforts to prevent material that could be used in a radiological “dirty bomb” from being brought into the country, the Yedioth Ahronoth reported yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 8, 2005). There is heightened security at Israeli airports, seaports and border sites, according to the newspaper. Authorities are using new detectors to scan containers and freight cargo at seaports for nuclear material.  Security has also been raised at Israeli facilities that could provide material for a dirty bomb, which would combine conventional explosives with radioactive material. “There is growing concern regarding ‘dirty bombs’ among Israeli antiterrorism units.  They work at thwarting such potential attacks on a daily basis,” said a high-level Israeli security official (Arieh Egozy, Yedioth Ahronoth, Dec. 2).   Back to top

About Newswire  |  Contact National Journal  |  Re-Use Guidelines

© Copyright 2008 by National Journal Group, Inc. The material in this section is produced independently for NTI by National Journal Group, Inc. Any reproduction or retransmission, in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of the National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.