U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill fields questions today in Seoul where he traveled after three days of talks in Berlin with lead North Korean nuclear negotiator Kim Kye Gwan (Kim Jae-hwan/Getty Images). North Korea Could Be Open to Nuclear Suspension Deal There were indications this week during meetings between U.S. and North Korean officials that Pyongyang might be interested in a proposal aimed at eliminating its nuclear program, the Washington Times reported (see GSN, Jan. 18). The plan, supported by the United States, would require Pyongyang to halt its nuclear program and to allow verification inspections.  It would be the first move toward full dismantlement of the country’s nuclear program, diplomats said...Full Story

Former Defense Secretary Advises Warning North Korea By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry yesterday urged the Bush administration to warn North Korea of “grave consequences” should a North Korean bomb detonate in the United States, South Korea or Japan (see GSN, Jan. 17)...Full Story

China Tests Antisatellite Weapon China successfully destroyed an orbiting satellite last week in a demonstration that could threaten U.S. missile defense plans and a wide range of other satellite-supported technologies, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, June 11, 2004)...Full Story

	Friday, January 19, 2007

Law Enforcement Troubled by Terror Hoaxes Fake terrorism threats continue to waste authorities’ time and resources, undermining their ability to track actual national security threats, USA Today reported today (see GSN, Oct. 23, 2006). There was a significant increase in hoaxes immediately following the Sept. 11 attacks and anthrax mailings in 2001 (see GSN, July 19, 2005).  They still occur today on a nearly daily basis, according to senior federal officials. Hoaxes are a “serious drain” on police stations and FBI offices, said Ken Wainstein, who leads the Justice Department’s National Security Division.  “These terror hoaxes distract law enforcement,” he said. Most go unpublicized.  Otherwise, “people would be in a constant state of hyper-anxiety,” Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said yesterday. Some have received national media attention. A Wisconsin grocery store clerk was charged last year with posting online threats to detonate radiological “dirty bombs” at seven National Football League stadiums.  The hoax “caused a massive mobilization of every resource you can think of,” said Michael Drewniak, spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s office in Newark, N.J. “You cannot possibly quantify the amount of dollars this cost in manpower and resources all because (someone) decided to scream fire — scream terrorism — in essentially seven football stadiums,” he told USA Today. A Mexican man pleaded guilty last year to calling 911 to say that he had helped two Iraqis and four Chinese chemists enter the United States, and that they were taking nuclear material to Boston (see GSN, May 8, 2006).  More than 30 government agencies responded to the hoax, which prompted a nationwide manhunt and a public alert. “We’re on the front lines of keeping the country safe, and when you’re distracted by these false threats, it goes right to the heart of our ability to protect the country,” said Dan Dzwilewski, who heads the FBI office in San Diego (Mimi Hall, USA Today, Jan. 19). Back to top       Full Study Needed of Passenger Rail Danger, GAO Says The U.S. Transportation Security Administration has yet to finish a full-scale assessment of threats to the U.S. passenger rail system, the Government Accountability Office said yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 3, 2006). “Until TSA does so, the agency may be limited in its ability to prioritize passenger rail assets and help guide security investments,” the agency said in a study. TSA risk assessments of passenger rail assets are under way, and it is preparing “a methodology for analyzing and characterizing risks,” according to the GAO report. The agency since its inception has prepared rail security directives, tested new rail security technology and prepared training tools for rail personnel.  In December, it submitted a proposed rule for passenger and rail security, the GAO report states. “However, federal and rail industry stakeholders have questioned the extent to which TSA’s directives were based on industry best practices and expressed confusion about how TSA would monitor compliance with the directives,” according to the report. The report recommends that U.S. rail operators consider implementing some security practices conducted in other nations.  These include random screening of passengers and covert testing to ensure that employees remain alert to potential dangers.  “TSA has reported taking steps to identify foreign best practices for rail security,” the report states. The U.S. Homeland Security Department has also assessed the risks to rail assets such as stations and bridges that are vulnerable to terrorist attack. “DHS has also begun developing a framework to help agencies and the private sector develop a consistent a consistent approach for analyzing and comparing risks among and across different transportation sectors,” according to the GAO report.  “However, until this framework is finalized, it may not be possible to compare risks across different sectors, prioritize them, and allocated resources accordingly” (U.S. Government Accountability Office report, Jan. 18). Back to top

U.N. to Keep Disarmament Department Newly seated U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has stepped back from an effort to consolidate two major U.N. departments, including one dedicated to disarmament issues, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, April 20, Nations of the Nonaligned Movement protested strongly to Ban’s proposal to merge the Political Affairs and the Disarmament Affairs departments, according to AP. Past, present and future NAM leaders complained to Ban that the move would de-emphasize efforts to urge world powers to reduce their nuclear and WMD stockpiles. Ban responded yesterday with a new plan that would keep the departments separate but downgrade the disarmament office somewhat, AP reported. In addition to their concerns over the pace of disarmament, the NAM countries were upset that the merged department could be headed by a U.S. diplomat, Lynn Pascoe, who is currently the U.S. ambassador to Indonesia. A merger “is going to overpoliticization,” said Egyptian U.N. Ambassador Maged Abdelaziz, “and particularly if somebody from a nuclear-weapon state will occupy the Department of Political Affairs.” “This will … further politicize the issue of nuclear disarmament and affect the balance between nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation,” he added. Abdelaziz said NAM nations might support Ban’s new plan if the disarmament department retains its current budget and work agenda (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/FoxNews.com, Jan. 19). Back to top

North Korea Could Be Open to Nuclear Suspension Deal There were indications this week during meetings between U.S. and North Korean officials that Pyongyang might be interested in a proposal aimed at eliminating its nuclear program, the Washington Times reported (see GSN, Jan. 18). The plan, supported by the United States, would require Pyongyang to halt its nuclear program and to allow verification inspections.  It would be the first move toward full dismantlement of the country’s nuclear program, diplomats said. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill met three days this week in Berlin with lead North Korean nuclear negotiator Kim Kye Gwan.  Kim asked Hill what Washington might offer were Pyongyang to shut down its nuclear reactor.  There was no immediate word of a U.S. response. A North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said the meetings were “sincere and positive” and resulted in “a certain agreement.”  It did not elaborate. The plan first arose last month during six-nation talks in Beijing on the North Korean nuclear standoff, the Times reported.  It was said to have included written security guarantees and come from Washington.  However, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said China offered most of the ideas. “The Chinese really are the ones who put forward ideas in the last round of the six-party talks, and part of what the North Koreans are responding to is that,” she said. Negotiators reported no progress following the December negotiations in moving Pyongyang toward disarmament. North Korean officials this week discussed their views on implementing the plan, diplomats said   There was talk of “certain steps toward dismantling,” a U.S. official said (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, Jan. 19). Hill indicated today that no agreement had resulted from his meetings with Kim, Agence France-Presse reported. “I’m sorry, I’m not really sure what he’s referring to,” Hill said of the Foreign Ministry spokesman.  He said the six-party talks could resume before the Lunar New Year holiday, which begins Feb. 18 in Korea. “I hope we kind of pick up the pace in the next session,” Hill said (Agence France-Presse I/Financial Express, Jan. 19). The United States also denied yesterday that it was breaking with its policy against direct negotiations with North Korea, AFP reported. “This is not an instance of bilateral negotiations,” White House spokesman Tony Snow said of this week’s meetings. No new ground was broken in the meetings, according to Snow and other officials.  They characterized the talks as a component of the six-party negotiations involving China, Japan, Russia, the United States and North and South Korea. The talks “certainly don’t represent anything particularly new or different from what we’ve done before,” said State Department deputy spokesman Tom Casey (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Jan. 18). The meetings this week might lead to additional six-party talks, experts said.  They saw no quick resolution, though, to the nuclear crisis, AFP reported. “I remain pessimistic that the six-party talks can make progress during the Bush administration’s last year,” said Brookings Institution analyst Richard Bush.  “It is just that ) North Korean leader Kim Jong Il can see that there is a finite amount of time left and he sees that there is a possibility of regime change in the United States and he might think he could get a better deal from the Democrats” (P. Parameswaran, Agence France-Presse III/Spacewar.com, Jan. 17). Back to top       Former Defense Secretary Advises Warning North Korea By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry yesterday urged the Bush administration to warn North Korea of “grave consequences” should a North Korean bomb detonate in the United States, South Korea or Japan (see GSN, Jan. 17). Whether that bomb was delivered by North Korea or a third party would not matter in terms of the U.S. response, he said.  The aim is to deter what Perry called one of the primary dangers of a nuclear North Korea:  that Pyongyang would transfer a working nuclear device or fissile material to a terrorist group. “The statement should be as unambiguous as the one [President John F.] Kennedy made at the time of the Cuban missile crisis,” Perry, defense secretary under President Bill Clinton, told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Without specifying precisely which statement he was referring to, he invited committee members to review Kennedy’s language.  Perry might have been pointing lawmakers to Kennedy’s 1962 statement indicating that any missile launched by Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere would be regarded as an attack by the Soviet Union and Moscow could expect a full retaliatory response. On Oct. 9, 2006, shortly after North Korea detonated a nuclear test device, President George W. Bush appeared to set such a red line for a nuclear transfer without making an explicit reference to retaliation (see GSN, Oct. 16, 2006). “The transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or nonstate entities would be considered a grave threat to the United States,” he said then (see GSN, Oct. 20, 2006).  “We would hold North Korea fully accountable for the consequences of such action.” The prospect of a nuclear bomb or plutonium making its way out of North Korea is more pressing than the prospect of a Pyongyang marrying a nuclear warhead to a missile and firing it at the United States or an ally, Perry said. “They are still far from having that capability, and even if they did get it, deterrence would still be effective,” he said.  “The North Korean regime is not seeking to commit suicide.” In June 2006, Perry along with former Assistant Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, published an opinion piece in the Washington Post calling for the United States to destroy any long-range ballistic missiles on their launch pads before North Korea could conduct a flight test (see GSN, June 22, 2006).  The following month, Pyongyang conducted a failed test of the long-range Taepodong 2 missile and six shorter-range missiles. At the hearing, Perry drew attention to the potential for North Korea to sell a grapefruit-sized ball of plutonium that could fuel a nuclear device.  He suggested the Proliferation Security Initiative, the U.S.-led effort to prevent smuggling of weapons of mass destruction and WMD materials, is unlikely to stop such a transfer. “We should never believe that [the Proliferation Security Initiative] has a high probability of preventing an experienced smugger like North Korea from transferring enough plutonium to make a bomb,” he said. North Korea has a record as a proliferator of missile technology as well as a trafficker of counterfeit U.S. currency and illicit drugs. The second major concern regarding North Korea, Perry said, is that it would complete work on an additional nuclear reactor, giving it the capability to produce enough plutonium for an additional 10 nuclear bombs a year. In his prepared testimony for the committee, Perry wrote that he believes “we are in a very deep hole today with North Korea.”  Persuading Pyongyang to give up a capability it already has will be “very hard.” “Because of past inactions on the part of the United States and the international community,” he wrote, there remain “no attractive options” to stop North Korea from developing its nuclear capacity. He called for the United States to return to the six-party talks with a negotiating strategy that involves a “credible coercive element,” including cooperation from China and South Korea.  Those countries, Perry said, could threaten to cut off the supply of fuel oil and grain to North Korea.  “I would return to China and South Korea and lay this on them rather heavily,” he said. Coercive diplomacy backed by the credible threat of force is critical, although if the United States is compelled to use military action there could be “dangerous unintended consequences,” he told the committee. A possible inducement for China and South Korea to back the United States in its push could be the concern “that if they did not provide the coercion, the United States might take the only meaningful coercive action available to it — destroying” a nuclear reactor now under construction, Perry said. Republican and Democratic committee members agreed on the dire nature of the North Korea nuclear situation and said they planned to devote more attention to the problem in the coming months.  Committee Chairman Tom Lantos (D-Calif.) said he plans a trip to North Korea this spring. Members sent verbal barbs across party lines, with Democrats accusing the Bush administration of a “dithering” and failed North Korea policy.  Republicans pointed fingers at President Bill Clinton’s negotiated Agreed Framework with Pyongyang and said today’s situation with North Korea is a legacy of inherited problems. “The initiation of the six-party talks was smart policy, but the deep divisions within the administration have hobbled the negotiations from day one,” Lantos said. The Democratic chairman said he was concerned that Pyongyang has already stopped seriously considering negotiations, preferring instead to wait out the final years of the Bush administration. “It is my hope that this is not the case, but North Korea’s decision to test a nuclear device just three months ago would seem to indicate that a deal may not be in the offing,” he said. Lantos said he was heartened by a statement from U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill that bilateral negotiations with Pyongyang could be normalized after the nuclear issue has been resolved (see GSN, Jan. 18).  “We must work assiduously to keep the door open for diplomacy,” Lantos said.  “The stakes are enormous.” Democratic lawmakers on the committee called for the Bush administration to further engage China in the negotiations process and to talk directly with North Korea. “In the interest of defusing a dangerous situation we should not fear dialogue,” said Eni Faleomavaega, a Democratic nonvoting delegate from the U.S. territory of American Samoa. “We need more carrots.  We also need more sticks,” said Representative Brad Sherman (D-Calif.).  Inducements could include increased trade with North Korea and a nonaggression pact, he said. Senior committee Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Fla.) expressed concerns that any additional nuclear tests in North Korea could spark an arms race in the region, spurring Japan, South Korea and maybe Taiwan to rethink their security needs. She also highlighted the risk of Pyongyang spreading nuclear technology.  “Kim Jong Il’s past eagerness to engage in illicit activities, including drug trafficking in Japan and counterfeiting of U.S. currency, indicates that the Dear Leader would have no hesitation in striking a proliferation deal for profit,” Ros-Lehtinen said. While Ros-Lehtinen called the Agreed Framework a “disaster,” Perry said the negotiated freeze at the Yongbyon nuclear reactor from 1994 to 2002 prevented the production of enough plutonium for 50 to 100 nuclear weapons. That negotiated freeze broke down when the Bush administration took control of North Korea policy.  The White House said officials in Pyongyang admitted to a having a suspected uranium enrichment program.  North Korean officials later denied having such a program or making such an admission. Back to top       Jordan Wants “Peaceful” Nuclear Program, King Says Jordan wants to develop a peaceful nuclear program in order to generate energy, and has approached Western nations with the plan, King Abdullah II said today (see GSN, Dec. 18, 2006). “The rules governing the nuclear issue have changed in the entire region,” Abdullah told the Haaretz newspaper.  “The Egyptians are looking for a nuclear program (see GSN, Sept. 25, 2006).  The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) are looking for one (see GSN, Dec. 15, 2006), and we are actually looking at nuclear power for peaceful and energy purposes.” Countries that develop a nuclear power infrastructure should follow international law and allow inspections, Abdullah said. “What’s expected from us should be a standard across the board.  We want to make sure this is used for energy.  What we don’t want is an arms race to come out of this,” he said. One expert said Jordan lacks the resources to develop nuclear power.  Abdullah’s statement is likely to be a message that a regional nuclear arms race could result if Iran becomes an atomic power, Shlomo Brom, a researcher at the Israeli Institute for National Strategic Studies, told the Associated Press. “Abdullah might be saying that if the Iranians aren’t prevented from getting a nuclear program, Jordan and everyone else will want one of their own,” he said (Matti Friedman, Associated Press/USA Today, Jan. 19). Back to top       Iran Ready to Begin Centrifuge Installation Iran is prepared to begin installation of up to 3,000 centrifuges at its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, according to diplomats familiar with a recent visit by international nuclear inspectors (see GSN, Jan. 18). “Everything has been prepared for assembling the centrifuges at Natanz for the beginning of the industrial phase of enrichment,” said one European diplomat.  “The hardware is now in place” (Mark Heinrich, Reuters/Haaretz, Jan. 18). Iran has finished “putting down the cabling, the air conditioning and all the other hardware,” another diplomat told the Associated Press (George Jahn, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Jan. 19). Although it was ready to begin installation, Iran has apparently not made the decision to proceed, Reuters reported. The Natanz facility has been testing two 164-centrifuge cascades in recent months, but these test groups have not yet run smoothly, according to Reuters. “It doesn’t make any technical sense to install 3,000 until they can get the test cascades running well,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.  “If they did, it would be a political decision trumping the science.” If Iran were to begin the major installation soon, it would take at least several months to put the centrifuges in place, Reuters reported (Heinrich, Reuters). Meanwhile, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad fired back yesterday at domestic critics of his nuclear diplomatic strategy. Reformist lawmakers and newspapers in Iran have recently argued that Ahmadinejad’s policies have led to Iran facing greater international isolation (see GSN, Jan. 16). “Unfortunately, certain people at home are falsifying information in a bid to tarnish the great pride of the Iranian people,” Ahmadinejad said in a speech.  “They favor compromise and repeat the slogans of the enemies, but this will have no effect” (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, Jan. 18). Despite repeated U.S. calls for Iran to return to the nuclear negotiating table, one top U.S. official expressed doubt yesterday that diplomacy could help resolve the nuclear crisis or Washington’s concerns about Iran’s involvement in Iraq. “Frankly, right at this moment there’s really nothing the Iranians want from us, and so in any negotiation right now we would be the supplicant,” said Defense Secretary Robert Gates during a visit to Bahrain. The United States recently deployed a second aircraft carrier battle group to the region, possibly as a show of force to Iran, according the New York Times (David Cloud, New York Times, Jan. 19). Saying they were concerned that the Bush administration was preparing a military strike against Iran, some U.S. lawmakers introduced a bill yesterday in the U.S. House to require the president to get congressional approval before any attacks on Iran. “Congress will not stand idly by — it won’t be railroaded into another war that will only make America and the world less safe,” Representative Martin Meehan (D-Mass.) told reporters yesterday.  “I’m not here to tell you that I trust Iran, but I am here to say that I don’t trust the administration” (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, Jan. 18). Back to top       France Contracts for New Strategic Missile France has awarded a contract for development of an improved submarine-launched ballistic missile that would carry a new type of nuclear warhead, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Nov. 10, 2006). France has begun the process of replacing its M-45 missiles with newer M-51 missiles.  This week’s contract calls for developing a subsequent version of the M-51 that could be armed with an updated sea-based nuclear warhead, according to AFP. Astrium Space Transportation, a division of EADS, won the nearly $350 million contract that would run through 2009, according to a Defense Ministry spokesman (Agence France-Presse, Jan. 18). Back to top       India, Pakistan Near Signing of Nuclear Risk Pact India and Pakistan plan to sign a nuclear risk reduction agreement next month at a planned meeting of foreign ministers in New Delhi, the Pakistan Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 15, 2006). The agreement, called “Reducing the Risk From Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons,” was approved in India this week at a Cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (Pakistan Times, Jan. 19). Back to top

Canadian Lab Recreates 1918 Flu Virus The National Microbiology Laboratory in Canada has recreated the 1918 influenza virus that killed up to 50 million people, renewing fears that such research could be conducted for harmful purposes, the CanWest News Service reported today (see GSN, Oct. 6, 2005). Research at the Winnipeg facility builds upon the 2005 U.S. recreation of the extinct virus. “This is the second time 1918 influenza virus A has been reconstructed,” said Harvard University Medical School virologist Jens Kuhn.  “Therefore, the study demonstrates that this, albeit difficult, task could be recreated anywhere, including in laboratories in hostile countries or terrorist groups who might not have public health at heart.” Studying the 1918 virus could help improve researchers’ understanding of the lethality of some flus, Kuhn said and others said. “You have to work with the devil somewhat to figure out what is going on,” said University of Ottawa virologist Earl Brown. Kuhn said, though, that the Canadian research “raises some concerns.”  There is no indication that international review and approval was given before experiments began, he said. “Indirectly, this paper therefore legitimizes similar experiments in any laboratory of the world, with the risk of laboratory accidents or virus release into the environment increasing with every new laboratory undertaking them,” he said by e-mail. The Canadian project received approval from the Public Health Agency of Canada and the Canadian Council on Animal Care, scientists said. Researchers injected the virus into monkeys in order to study its virulence.  Further experiments are planned, but the virus will not be allowed to leave the Biosafety Level 4 laboratory, scientists told the News Service (Margaret Munro, CanWest News Service, Jan. 19). Back to top       States Fail to Spend Millions in CDC Funds U.S. states are failing to spend a significant portion of the roughly $1 billion they receive each year from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to prepare for acts of bioterrorism and other health crises, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 9). The U.S. Health and Human Services Department inspector general reported that more than $157 million went unspent in the program year that ended Aug. 30, 2005.  That is almost 16 percent of the distributed funds. Money for laboratory upgrades, equipment and new staff is meant to be used quickly in order to boost national security.  However, one likely terrorist target, the District of Columbia, spent roughly half of the CDC money it received in 2004 and 2005. “We’re very concerned that these funds are used in a timely fashion for preparedness,” said Richard Besser, head of the CDC terrorism preparedness office.  Some of the problems might be due to state contracting bureaucracies that are slow to take action and temporary halts on local hiring, he said. Since 1999, the center has distributed roughly $4 billion among state health agencies.  The full amount that was not used in 2006 was not yet known, as the agency had not yet received required reports from 18 state health departments, the Journal-Constitution reported. While funds usually can be carried over to the next year, the Centers for Disease Control this year withheld $9.9 million from a number of departments.  Those agencies were required to use unspent funds. The District of Columbia’s carry-over balance stands at $11 million.  It is using $7 million of that for a new laboratory, a city Health Department spokeswoman said (Alison Young, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Jan. 18). Back to top

China Tests Antisatellite Weapon China successfully destroyed an orbiting satellite last week in a demonstration that could threaten U.S. missile defense plans and a wide range of other satellite-supported technologies, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, June 11, 2004). The antisatellite test was China’s first and the only one conducted since the United States performed a similar test in 1985.  The United States and the Soviet Union had active antisatellite programs prior to the mid-1980s, but stopped testing then, partly because of the large amount of orbital debris created by destroyed satellites, according to the Post. The Jan. 11 Chinese test involved a medium-range ballistic missile crashing into an aging weather satellite orbiting 537 miles above the Earth’s surface.  U.S. satellites at that altitude include some spy satellites and missile-launch detection satellites, the Post reported. “The U.S. believes China’s development and testing of such weapons is inconsistent with the spirit of cooperation that both countries adhere to in the civil space area,” said National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe.  “We and other countries have expressed our concern regarding this action to the Chinese” (Kaufman/Linzer, Washington Post, Jan. 19). The test was unusual in part because China has long sought to negotiate a ban on space weapons, but U.S. presidents of both parties have resisted the talks, arguing that they didn’t want to limit U.S. space options, the New York Times reported (see GSN, June 14, 2006). China could be using the test to try to reinvigorate space arms control, said two arms control experts. “For several years, the Russians and Chinese have been trying to push a treaty to ban space weapons,” said Theresa Hitchens of the Center for Defense Information.  “The concept of exhibiting a hard-power capability to bring somebody to the negotiating table is a classic Cold War technique.” “It puts pressure on the U.S. to negotiate agreements not to weaponize space,” agreed Gary Samore, director of studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (Broad/Sanger, New York Times, Jan. 19). Back to top

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