Despite more frequent diplomatic exchanges, such as this informal lunch last year with Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee (left) and Pakistani Foreign Minister Kurshid Mahmud Kasuri, India and Pakistan continue to add nuclear capabilities (Prakash Singh/Getty Images). South Asian Nuclear Arms Race Could Be Heating Up Recent information, including satellite imagery, could suggest that both India and Pakistan are adding facilities to enhance their ability to produce nuclear weapons, according to analyses released last week by the Institute for Science and International Security (see GSN, Aug. 7, 2006). The new construction raises “the question of whether the two countries are already engaged in an expanded arms race focused on expanding the size and quality of their nuclear arsenals, including building significant numbers of thermonuclear weapons,” says one of the reports...Full Story

U.S. Makes Missile Defense Offers in Europe The United States last week formally invited the Czech Republic and Poland to participate in its missile defense program, Reuters reported (see GSN, Dec. 14, 2006)...Full Story

Nonproliferation a Major Issue in 2008, Experts Say By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A panel of nuclear nonproliferation experts said Friday that stopping the spread of nuclear technology could emerge as a significant issue in next year’s U.S. presidential election (see GSN, Jan. 19)...Full Story

	Monday, January 22, 2007

Report Raises Canadian Air Security Concerns There is little screening of charter and corporate flights at Canadian airports, which potentially could allow terrorists to “use such aircraft as suicide weapons, or for dispersal of chemical/biological weapons,” according to a report issued last year (see GSN, Nov. 3, 2005). An independent panel prepared the report for Canada’s transportation department, The Ottawa Citizen reported. The panel found that passenger flights carry roughly 70 percent of all air cargo in the country, and that it is essentially not screened before loading (see GSN, Jan. 18). Airport terminals could offer an attractive target to terrorists, the report states.  Terrorists might initiate a small security breach in a secured preboarding area, forcing passengers to return to main concourses to be screened again, according to one scenario.  The large number of people then would “create a target-rich environment” for attackers who could enter the concourse through the front door, the report states. The Canadian Air Transport Security Authority complained in the report of lack of access to government intelligence that could be crucial to securing the country’s airports, the Citizen reported. “CATSA has made clear a degree of dissatisfaction with its access to intelligence that it considers essential to its operations,” the report states.  “CATSA emphasized that intelligence is a necessary tool and a specific type of information that it requires to help it gain a more precise picture of what it on the radar screen.” Airports filed similar concerns.  The complaints were seemingly directed at Transport Canada, which cooperates with intelligence services to provide information to the security authority, airport authorities and air carriers. “Transport Canada consistently mismanages airports when it comes to security,” said Senate National Security and Defense Committee Chairman Colin Kenny.  “Why would the right hand of government hobble the left hand — it makes absolutely no sense.” The panel recommended that the security authority continue to receive all necessary intelligence (Ian Macleod, The Ottawa Citizen, Jan. 20). Back to top

South Asian Nuclear Arms Race Could Be Heating Up Recent information, including satellite imagery, could suggest that both India and Pakistan are adding facilities to enhance their ability to produce nuclear weapons, according to analyses released last week by the Institute for Science and International Security (see GSN, Aug. 7, 2006). The new construction raises “the question of whether the two countries are already engaged in an expanded arms race focused on expanding the size and quality of their nuclear arsenals, including building significant numbers of thermonuclear weapons,” says one of the reports. Images of a Pakistani site suggest the possibility that Islamabad is building a new reprocessing facility that could separate weapon-usable plutonium from spent reactor fuel (Institute for Science and International Security report I, Jan. 18). As for India, industrial orders over the past two years suggest that the nation is seeking to expand its uranium enrichment centrifuge capability, the other ISIS analysis says.  “After many years, India appears to have finally developed the capability to build and operate a centrifuge plant,” the report says.  The new equipment orders “would significantly expand India’s ability to make highly enriched uranium for its military nuclear programs and enable it to add thermonuclear weapons to its arsenal at a rate of at least a few per year,” the report says (Institute for Science and International Security report II, Jan. 18). Meanwhile, India plans to produce its own fuel for a nuclear research reactor, thereby removing the site from international oversight after a planned U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal takes effect, the Press Trust of India reported yesterday. The Apsara reactor is currently fueled with highly enriched uranium from France, but India plans to swap out that fuel with domestically produced low-enriched uranium, according to PTI (Press Trust of India/New Kerala, Jan. 21). Back to top       Nonproliferation a Major Issue in 2008, Experts Say By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A panel of nuclear nonproliferation experts said Friday that stopping the spread of nuclear technology could emerge as a significant issue in next year’s U.S. presidential election (see GSN, Jan. 19). “The first candidate who takes this up is going to enjoy a significant boost in popularity,” Joseph Cirincione, a national security expert with the Center for American Progress, said at a forum hosted by the Arms Control Association.  “I believe this is a winning issue.” “The first candidate that says that he or she will make it a priority to eliminate the possibility of nuclear terrorism in their first four years in office will immediately jump to the front of public attention on this issue,” Cirincione said. In a 2004 presidential debate, both President George W. Bush and Democratic Senator John Kerry (Mass.) declared nuclear proliferation as the paramount threat to the United States (see GSN, Oct. 1, 2004). A recent Wall Street Journal commentary from a former U.S. senator, two former secretaries of state and a former defense secretary was written with an eye toward the next election, said Steve Andreasen, defense policy and arms control director at the National Security Council during the Clinton administration (see GSN, Jan. 4). The piece, published in early January, urged the eventual elimination of nuclear weapons and was timed both as a call to action to the current administration and a suggestion to candidates in 2008, said Andreasen, who was one of 17 additional signatories to the essay. “All of the signatories thought it essential to underscore the urgent need for U.S. leadership for making progress on nuclear issues and to make the case for moving the issue of nuclear weapons once again to the policy front burner,” he said. Andreasen and fellow panelist Matthew Bunn, a senior researcher at Harvard University’s Project on Managing the Atom, called for strong leadership within the White House on nuclear issues.  While Bunn called for establishing a senior nuclear policy coordinator, Andreasen said that in his experience leadership regarding nuclear nonproliferation must come from the president. “It’s a doable mission,” Cirincione said of eliminating the possibility of nuclear terrorism.  “It’s a necessary mission and we have the resources to do it, we just lack the political will to do so.” Back to top       Iranian Nuclear Diplomats Could Lose Jobs as Ahmadinejad Faces Continuing Domestic Pressure Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faced more domestic criticism for his nuclear politics in recent days, and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could toss out the current cast of Iran’s nuclear negotiators, the London Sunday Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 19). Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over Iran’s foreign policy, has not publicly spoken against Ahmadinejad, but a Khamenei-owned newspaper criticized the president in a recent editorial. “Our advice to the president is to speak about the nuclear issue only during important national occasions, stop provoking aggressive powers like the United States and concentrate more on the daily needs of the people, those who voted for you on your promises,” said the Islamic Republic editorial. “Ahmadinejad is under extreme pressure from his own supporters to change policies,” said Sa’id Leylaz, a leading Iranian economist.  “The future of the nation has never been this dark, both economically and politically” (Colvin/Asgharzadeh, The Sunday Times, Jan. 21). Another newspaper, representing Iranian moderates, also joined in yesterday. “It appears that the pressure against Iran is increasing, and, unlike an optimistic view, there is a tangible tendency among the countries in the region and in the international community toward America’s policies against Iran,” wrote Jalal Khoshchehreh, foreign editor of the Kargozaran (Nazila Fathi, New York Times, Jan. 22). Back to top       North Korea Offers Nuclear Freeze North Korea last week indicated that it was willing to suspend operations at its Yongbyon nuclear reactor in return for aid, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Jan. 19). Lead North Korean nuclear negotiator Kim Kye Gwan also told his U.S. counterpart that Pyongyang was willing to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor the site, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported.  These actions would constitute the first moves toward full nuclear disarmament. Kim demanded consideration in Washington of a peace treaty that would formally end the Korean War, once the initial measures are taken, according to the newspaper.  The United States appeared open to the plan (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, Jan. 22). U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, Washington’s lead envoy in the nuclear talks, said he and Kim agreed during last week’s meetings in Berlin to resume multilateral negotiations soon and to seek concrete results, the Associated Press reported. “There was the view that between the two of us that we should try to have the six-party talks as soon as we can,” Hill said. “I can’t tell you at this point when it will be, but I think probably in the next couple of weeks,” he said yesterday in Beijing, according to Reuters (Lindsay Beck, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Kan. 21). The last round of six-nation talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear program in December ended without signs of progress.  The North’s delegation reportedly refused to discuss the nuclear issue, demanding that the question of U.S. sanctions be resolved first. Kim yesterday began meeting with Russia’s top negotiator, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov, AP reported (Associated Press I/International Herald Tribune, Jan. 21). Talks between Pyongyang and Washington on the U.S financial sanctions are also anticipated soon, though a location has not been selected, Hill said.  “They will probably be held before or at the same time as the six-party talks,” he said (Robert Saiget, Agence France-Presse II, Jan. 22). Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon today called for independent audits of all U.N. funds and programs, AP reported.  Ban’s move came after the United States last week indicated it believed that millions of dollars from the U.N. Development Program that was intended to help North Korea’s poor was instead diverted to the Stalinist state’s nuclear weapons program and other activities. The Development Program said there had been no worries expressed in the nearly 30 years it has worked with North Korea that money was going toward the nuclear effort (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/philly.com, Jan. 21). Back to top       Diplomacy With Iran Possible, Says Report Author By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Regardless of the pressure being applied on Iran over its nuclear activities, diplomatic engagement with Tehran should not be abandoned, one of the authors of the Iraq Study Group report told lawmakers Friday (see GSN, Jan. 19). “I think when you’re dealing with a diplomatic relationship as difficult as ours is with Iran, you have to look at all the carrots and all the sticks you can,” former Representative Lee Hamilton (D-Ind.) told the House Foreign Affairs Committee, counseling engagement regarding violence in Iraq. “Sometimes the argument is made that Iran has momentum in the region and the United States should not negotiate until it has more leverage,” he said.  “I do not accept that the United States is too weak to negotiate.  We negotiated with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.” The Iraq Study Group’s report advised the President George Bush to engage both Iran and Syria to get “their commitment to constructive policies toward Iraq” as well as other regional issues.  Iran is believed to wield tremendous influence in Iraq. The administration, however, has rejected the group’s recommendation for diplomatic engagement, arguing that regional stability should be in Iran’s interest. Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) pointed to Iran’s continued intransigence in the face of U.N. demands to halt uranium enrichment in arguing against talks with Tehran.  “I strongly believe it would be a mistake to turn to them in for assistance in Iraq,” she said. Ros-Lehtinen, the ranking Republican on the House committee, also called Friday for the suspension of U.N. Development Program funds to North Korea in the wake of U.S. accusations that the money has been diverted to the Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. North Korean leader “Kim Jong Il has been very clear about his ‘military first’ policy of national development,” she said in a statement.  “As far as anyone knows he is using this money to pay for his nuclear weapons program instead of feeding his people.” U.S. officials called for an audit of the program that they say operated in violation of U.N. rules for years and might have allowed Pyongyang to funnel financial aid to illicit programs (see related GSN story, today). Back to top       Arab Nations Readying Nuclear Talks With IAEA Six Arab nations are planning to hold talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding their plans to develop a nuclear power program, al-Jazeera reported today (see GSN, Dec. 15, 2006). The Gulf Cooperation Council — consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — announced last month that it would begin to pursue peaceful nuclear technology. “There are preparations under way for meetings in the coming weeks with officials from the IAEA about the … nuclear program,” council Secretary General Abdul Rahman al-Attiya said in a UAE newspaper Saturday (al-Jazeera/Tehran Times, Jan. 22). Back to top       Final European Nation Ratifies CTBT Moldova ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty last week, becoming the 138th nation to approve the pact (see GSN, Nov. 17, 2006). The Tuesday ratification means the pact has been ratified by all European nations, according to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization. So far, 177 countries have signed the treaty, but it cannot enter into force until 10 more key nations sign or ratify the pact (CTBTO release, Jan. 19). Back to top

U.S. to Track Rail Cars Carrying Toxic Cargo The U.S. Transportation Security Administration plans to initiate a rail cargo tracking system within a month to monitor how long train cars carrying toxic chemicals sit motionless or unguarded, USA Today reported (see GSN, Jan. 18). The system is intended to measure the rail industry’s plan to reduce such periods of vulnerability by 25 percent this year in 46 metropolitan regions, according to USA Today. Unguarded rail cars with hazardous cargo, such as chlorine, constitute the largest terrorist threat to the U.S. rail system, according to the agency. The plan to cut the idle time of the shipments “immediately reduces the risk of a terrorist attack,” said TSA chief Kip Hawley.  “These cars will not be sitting ducks” (Thomas Frank, USA Today, Jan. 21). Back to top       Malaysia Enforces Chemical Law Malaysia has begun serious enforcement of a 2005 law intended to bring the country into compliance with the requirements of the Chemical Weapons Convention, the New Straits Times reported today (see GSN, June 1, 2005). The Chemical Weapons Convention Act 2005 addresses use, storage, import, export and transfers of chemical that could be used in weapons.  The government this year expects to begin inspections of companies that use toxic chemicals.  Roughly 5,000 companies in Malaysia — ranging from pesticide to pharmaceutical firms — use chemicals that could be used in weapons, said Zainuddin Abdullah, head of the Occupational Safety and Health Department.  Thousands of service sector companies and other nonmanufacturing firms also use toxic chemicals.  Many might not know that the materials could be used by terrorists, the Times reported. Sixteen firms are to undergo inspections this year.  Checks have already been conducted on three entities. Chemicals identified by the law include sarin, soman, tabun, VX, hydrogen cyanide, chloropicrin, sulfur monochloride and dimethyl phosphate. Development, production, acquisition, stockpiling and transfer of chemical weapons in punishable by 30 years in prison, a $286,000 fine, or both. Lesser penalties would be given for failing to report possession or transfer of designated chemicals (Annie Freeda Cruez, New Straits Times, Jan. 22). Back to top       Turkmenistan Designates CWC National Authority Turkmenistan has designated a national authority to implement its internal obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons announced last week (see GSN, Nov. 21, 2006). The Turkmen Defense Ministry will act as the country’s treaty authority. As of Jan. 16, all but nine of the 181 treaty states had established national authorities. Designated agencies act as the main point of contact with the organization and with other member nations regarding the treaty.  Other duties include tracking and confirming compliance with the treaty, facilitating OPCW inspections and preparing required documentation (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons release, Jan. 17). Back to top

U.S. Makes Missile Defense Offers in Europe The United States last week formally invited the Czech Republic and Poland to participate in its missile defense program, Reuters reported (see GSN, Dec. 14, 2006). The offer calls for installing U.S. missile interceptors in Poland and placing a radar system in the Czech Republic.  Negotiations could take months, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried told the Polish Rzeczpospolita daily. “We believe that building infrastructure of the antimissile shield in Poland and the Czech (Republic) will significantly boost the defenses of a united Europe,” he said.  “I want to stress that the antimissile system is not aimed at Russia.” Washington argues that the missile shield would offer protection for the United States and allied nations against missiles from nations such as Iran and North Korea. Russian officials, though, have repeatedly made their displeasure known regarding plans for U.S. missile defense installations in Eastern Europe. “Our analysis shows that the placing of a radio locating station in the Czech Republic and antimissile equipment is a real threat to us,” said space forces chief Lt. Gen. Vladimir Popovkin said, according to Russian news agencies. There is concern in Moscow that the missile shield might undermine Russia’s nuclear deterrent and alter the European military balance, according to Polish and U.S. diplomats. Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski backs the missile defense plan, which has been subject to skepticism in his country, Reuters reported. “I think we want to assure the Polish public that we will approach this issue very seriously,” said Defense Minister Radoslaw Sikorski (Natalia Reiter, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Jan. 22). The issue is “sensitive,” said Czech Defense Minister Vlasta Parkanova.  “But the danger of a ballistic missile attack is, unfortunately, real.” “It would strengthen security in all of Europe,” said Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek (Wolfgang Jung, Deutsche Presse-Agentur/Monstersandcritics.com, Jan. 21). The Czech Republic could face repercussions for allowing the radar station to be placed on its soil, senior Russian lawmaker Andrei Kokoshin said Saturday. “This decision, if taken by the Czechs, will not be without consequences,” he said. The Russian parliament could “recommend, in return, measures which will not necessarily be symmetrical and which will allow us to ensure the strategic stability and national security of Russia” and its allies, he said (Agence France-Presse, Jan. 20).     Back to top

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