The French reprocessing plant at La Hague would be just one of seven in the world that would need to be monitored if a fissile material cutoff treaty were to be negotiated (Mychele Daniau/Getty Images). Fissile Material Pact Might Be Cheaper Than Thought By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A group of nuclear experts has estimated that the cost of verifying a fissile material cutoff treaty in nuclear-weapon states could be much lower than what the International Atomic Energy Agency estimated in 1995 (see GSN, May 18, 2006)...Full Story

Iran Readies Nuclear Test Site, Newspaper Reports With North Korean aid, Iran is preparing an underground test site where it could explode a small nuclear weapon before the end of the year, a senior European defense official told the London Telegraph (see GSN, Jan. 23)...Full Story

Norway Stops Efforts to Buy Nuclear Technology Norway has detected and rebuffed foreign efforts to secretly acquire nuclear materials and technology from companies in the Scandinavian nation, the head of police intelligence said yesterday...Full Story

	Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Nevada Looks to Build WMD Response Site Nevada Governor Jim Gibbons (R) has proposed spending $21 million to construct a “weapons of mass destruction readiness building” near Las Vegas for the state’s National Guard unit, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, July 26, 2006). The 23,000-square-foot site would be used to store WMD detection equipment and to train personnel to respond to WMD threats, according to AP.  The plan calls for using $7 million in state funds and $14 million in federal support (Amanda Fehd, Associated Press/Las Vegas Sun, Jan. 23). Back to top

Fissile Material Pact Might Be Cheaper Than Thought By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A group of nuclear experts has estimated that the cost of verifying a fissile material cutoff treaty in nuclear-weapon states could be much lower than what the International Atomic Energy Agency estimated in 1995 (see GSN, May 18, 2006). More than a decade ago, the U.N. nuclear watchdog put the cost of a verification regime at $140 million a year to ensure that nuclear-weapon states were not creating any weapon-usable fissile material.  That figure would be more than $180 million today when adjusted for inflation, according to the U.S. Labor Department. Some were concerned at the time that the additional funds would double or triple the IAEA safeguards budget, but “that may not be the case,” Princeton University international affairs professor Frank von Hippel said yesterday. The International Panel on Fissile Materials, a Princeton-based study group, believes that the cost might be much less burdensome. “It looks like that was a great overestimate,” von Hippel, the group’s co-chairman, said during a panel discussion at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In the IAEA estimate, the bulk of the costs would come from inspecting 28 nuclear fuel reprocessing plants worldwide.  However, the treaty would probably need to monitor far fewer sites, according to von Hippel. The United Kingdom plans to shut its civilian plants in 2112 and all military fuel production plants would be closed under a treaty, he noted.  That would leave just seven:  one in China, two in France, three in India and one Russian plant. “So that reduces the problem by a factor of four,” von Hippel said.  He also proposed that there would be no need to detect reprocessing within the two-week timeframe used in the IAEA estimate. Von Hippel proposed 12 one-week, short-notice inspections.  That would reduce costs to roughly $7 million a year, about 8 percent the $90 million needed to inspect reprocessing facilities in 1995, von Hippel said. Inspecting reprocessing plants is much more time intensive and costly than other forms of safeguards, he said. Von Hippel noted that inspecting a reprocessing facility could take as many as 100 inspector days a year versus just one or two inspector days in a  reactor. The five nuclear-weapon states designated by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty — the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France — are currently observing a self-imposed moratorium on the production of fissile material for weapons. “It may be that only Pakistan and India are currently making highly enriched uranium for weapons,” said panelist Zia Mian, a Princeton research scientist with the International Panel on Fissile Materials. The Bush administration is opposed to a verifiable treaty, concluding in 2004 that verification of a treaty was not a realistic or achievable goal. Back to top       Iran Readies Nuclear Test Site, Newspaper Reports With North Korean aid, Iran is preparing an underground test site where it could explode a small nuclear weapon before the end of the year, a senior European defense official told the London Telegraph (see GSN, Jan. 23). The two nations have agreed to share nuclear weapon research data, including the results of North Korea’s first nuclear test last October, according to the Telegraph. “We have identified increased activity at all of Iran's nuclear facilities since the turn of the year,” the official said.  “All the indications are that the Iranians are working hard to prepare for their own underground nuclear test.” While international inspections have found no evidence that Iran has produced stocks of weapon-usable uranium or plutonium, North Korea’s involvement could significantly shorten the timeline to a nuclear-armed Iran. Defense officials have estimated that with North Korean help, Iran could test a small nuclear device, with a yield of less than half a kiloton, by the end of this year, the Telegraph reported (Con Coughlin, The Telegraph, Jan. 24). Meanwhile, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dismissed as ineffectual a growing U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf, including the deployment of a second aircraft carrier battle group (see GSN, Jan. 19). “The United States is unable to inflict serious damage on Iran,” he said in a state television interview yesterday.  “They are not really in a position to carry out this action (of attacking Iran).  I believe there are many wise people in the United States who would not let it happen” (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press I/Washington Post, Jan. 24). Still, Iran has taken defensive measures, including the purchase of Russian-made air-defense missiles, AP reported. Iranian officials disclosed today that they had received components of the Tor-M1 mobile air-defense system.  Russia has said it agreed to sell Iran 29 systems in a December 2005 contract (see GSN, Nov. 27, 2006). Iran is expected to deploy the weapons at major nuclear sites, such as installations at Bushehr and Isfahan, AP reported (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Jan. 24). Back to top       Norway Stops Efforts to Buy Nuclear Technology Norway has detected and rebuffed foreign efforts to secretly acquire nuclear materials and technology from companies in the Scandinavian nation, the head of police intelligence said yesterday. “Like other countries in Europe, Norwegian companies and research institutes are a target for states wanting products, technology and information for use in developing nuclear weapons,” said Joern Holme, head of the Norwegian Police Security Service.  “There have been attempts at hidden purchases from Norwegian countries for the benefit of foreign powers’ nuclear program.” Holme made the disclosure while delivering his service’s annual threat assessment at a press conference. Norway has no nuclear weapons or nuclear power stations, but it does have research reactors and an advanced high-technology industrial capability, the Associated Press reported. Of further concern, Holme said, is nonstate interest in nuclear technology. “It is unsettling that some countries that have developed nuclear weapons can represent a potential source of spreading such capacity to nongovernmental players,” he said (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Jan. 23). Back to top       Bush Gives Few Words to Iran, North Korea in Speech By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Facing a Democratic Congress for his first time in seven State of the Union addresses, President George W. Bush last night outlined a domestic agenda including immigration reform and greater energy independence.  Concerns about weapons of mass destruction that loomed large during addresses early in his presidency were pushed to a rhetorical backseat (see GSN, Feb. 1, 2006). During the past year, North Korea has conducted a nuclear test and Iran has maintained its uranium enrichment program in the face of international disapproval.  Both have been hit with U.N. Security Council sanctions resulting from their atomic intransigence. However, compared to 2002 when the president labeled the two countries — along with prewar Iraq — as parts of an “axis of evil,” they received little mention during last night’s speech. “The United Nations has imposed sanctions on Iran and made clear that the world will not allow the regime in Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons,” Bush said. Regarding a nuclear-armed North Korea, the president said, “Together with our partners in China and Japan, Russia and South Korea, we’re pursuing intensive diplomacy to achieve a Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons.” In previous addresses, the president spoke more expansively regarding the threat to U.S. citizens posed by the acquisition of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons by terrorists or rogue regimes. In 2002, Bush said the specter of a WMD attack on the United States was a “grave and growing danger.”  He returned to the WMD threat in 2003 and in 2004 called it the “ultimate danger.”  In the past two years, concerns about unconventional weapons have been replaced by a broader focus on terrorism.  Bush has addressed what he envisions as a “long war,” pitting U.S. democracy against terrorism and tyranny. He returned to the fight against terrorism last night, telling the nation “we’ve added many critical protections to guard the homeland.” “We know with certainty that the horrors of that September morning were just a glimpse of what the terrorists intend for us, unless we stop them,” Bush said.  “To win the war on terror we must take the fight to the enemy.” Citing successes in U.S. efforts to stymie terrorists, Bush described the discovery of an “al-Qaeda cell developing anthrax to be used in attacks against America.” He did not offer details, but might have been referring to the discovery of documents in Afghanistan in 2001 indicating an al-Qaeda attempt to develop anthrax with the assistance of a Pakistani scientist (see GSN, Oct. 31, 2006). Bush also mentioned plans to double the number of border patrol agents and funding of “new infrastructure and technology” to close gaps along porous borders. In touting his plan for comprehensive immigration reform, he said a temporary worker program would alleviate pressure on border agents, allowing them to “chase down drug smugglers, criminals and terrorists.” Back to top       South Korea to Boost Nuclear Monitoring South Korea intends this year to boost its defenses against North Korea and its monitoring of Pyongyang’s nuclear efforts, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Jan. 23). Seoul’s consolidated defense command “has decided to beef up military countermeasures in parallel with the ongoing efforts to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear programs,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.  “It will step up the around-the-clock monitoring and surveillance over North Korea’s nuclear facilities … (and) beef up the response force at an early date.” Pyongyang’s nuclear and conventional weapons are a significant threat to its southern neighbor, the South Korean Defense Ministry said in December.  It estimated that North Korea had produced 30 kilograms of plutonium in the last three years, which would be enough for five weapons (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Jan. 24). The United States and South Korea have offered an incentives plan aimed to persuading Pyongyang to follow through on its September 2005 pledge to eliminate its nuclear weapons program, Reuters reported. “South Korea and the United States have put forward, through close consultations, an aggressive proposal for the implementation of the Sept. 19 joint statement,” South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon said today.  “North Korea has shown a flexible position on it.” Song would not offer details of the proposal. Lead North Korean negotiator Kim Kye Gwan said he was “satisfied” with the outcome of talks on implementing the agreement with China, Russia, South Korea and the United States, the Xinhua News Agency reported.  Those four nations “reached consensus on many issues,” he said. Song said he hoped to see negotiations move past a major hurdle at the last round of six-party talks in December — North Korea’s demand that the United States lift financial sanctions before it would consider the nuclear issue. “I want to stress that there is a consensus coming together that we need to overcome that issue and need to agree on the initial steps for the Sept. 19 agreement,” he said (Jack Kim, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Jan. 24). Song added that it would take time to fully resolve the nuclear standoff, AFP reported. “It is difficult for the participants to strike an agreement at one stroke that would include all the procedures for the North to dismantle nuclear programs and for others to provide it with what it wants,” he said (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Jan. 24). Back to top       Russia Backs Easing Indian Nuclear Trade Limits Russia plans to back changes to international nuclear trade rules to allow India greater access to nuclear materials and technology, President Vladimir Putin said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 17). “We stand ready to support our Indian friends. We intend to help India directly in the construction of atomic energy facilities for peaceful use,” Putin told reporters in Moscow before a two-day trip to India beginning tomorrow.  “On top of that, some of our companies are very much interested in acquiring large contracts for construction of new facilities.” Russia would also seek to provide nuclear fuel to those facilities, as it has to current Indian reactors (see GSN, Nov. 1, 2006). “On various occasions we provided India with nuclear fuel. And we will help India settle her problems in international affairs with the proviso that Russia will abide by international obligations,” Putin said. He expressed support for multilateral fuel-production institutions that would give developing nations the confidence to pursue nuclear power without raising the proliferation risk of those nations enriching their own uranium. “Within that framework of those centers, it is our position that equal democratic and nondiscriminatory recourse should be ensured and secondly, for all countries this procedure should certainly be done with strict meeting of the requirements and demands imposed” by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Putin said (Press Trust of India/The Hindu, Jan.24). Back to top       Expert Questions British Nuclear Plan A U.S. expert is questioning plans by the British government to replace its Trident nuclear missile system, the BBC reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 17). “The government is hastening into this decision before the facts are really available to it,” said physicist Richard Garwin, one of the designers of the first U.S. hydrogen bomb. British Trident submarines are now due to be decommissioned in 2024.  Prime Minister Tony Blair has argued that the United Kingdom needs to maintain its deterrent in the face of the threats of terrorism and nuclear proliferation.  Work on a replacement must begin now, as the country would need 17 years to design, build and commission a new submarine, according to a government white paper issued in December. British lawmakers are expected to vote on the plan in March, the BBC reported. Garwin said yesterday that U.S. Trident submarines have expected life spans of 45 years.  The U.S. vessels spend a greater amount of time at sea than British Trident submarines, he told the House of Commons Defense Select Committee. He said the British submarines should last until at least the 2030s. “I would expect that the U.K. submarines, from the point of view of wear-out, would last 100 years,” Garwin said.  “I see no reason why they shouldn’t last for 45 years” (BBC News, Jan. 23). Back to top       House Asks GAO to Check Energy Department Security Leaders of a U.S. House committee have asked the Government Accountability Office to review the Energy Department’s cybersecurity efforts (see GSN, Jan. 9). Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell (D-Mich.) and Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chairman Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) sent a letter Friday requesting the review. The Energy Department has suffered a number of electronic security lapses in recent years, Environment and Energy Daily reported yesterday, including an October incident in which a contract worker removed classified nuclear weapon information from the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico (see GSN, Nov. 6, 2006).  That discovery led Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman to dismiss Linton Brooks, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration (see GSN, Jan. 5). “If left unattended, cybersecurity weaknesses at DOE could allow individuals or groups backed by nation-states the opportunity to penetrate DOE’s networks and gain access to sensitive and classified information,” the letter says.  “We know the hackers are out there, and they continue to target DOE assets and stage their attacks on a daily basis” (Mary O’Driscoll, Environment and Energy Daily, Jan. 23). Back to top

Russia Says 19 Percent of Chemical Weapons Destroyed Russia said yesterday that it has destroyed 19 percent of its chemical weapons stockpile, the Russia & CIS Military Newswire reported (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2006). “As of Monday, Russia has disposed of 3,623 tons of blistering toxic agents, and detoxified 4,005 tons of neuroparalytic toxic agents, which amount to over 19 percent of the overall stock of chemical weapons,” Russian Industry Agency deputy chief Viktor Kholstov told Interfax-AVN. Moscow anticipates destroying 8,000 tons of chemical agents by April 29, 2007.  That had been the previous deadline to finish work under the Chemical Weapons Convention; Russia and several other countries received deadline extensions during the December meeting of states parties to the treaty (see GSN, Dec. 11, 2006).  Russia now has until April 2012 to destroy 40,000 tons of weaponized agents. Work at one Russian disposal site has finished, while two are now operating and four are under construction. Russia has budgeted $981 million for chemical weapons disposal in 2007, Kholstov said (Russia & CIS Military Newswire, Jan. 23). Back to top       Audio Tapes Caught “Chemical Ali” Promising Death to all Kurdish Speakers in Iraq Audio tapes played yesterday during the genocide trial of former senior Iraqi official Ali Hassan al-Majid caught him threatening to kill all Kurdish language speakers in the country, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 12). “I will leave no Kurd (alive) who speaks the Kurdish language,” said a man prosecutors identified as al-Majid, who is known as “Chemical Ali” for allegedly ordering the use of chemical weapons against Iraqi Kurds during the 1980s. Al-Majid and five other former Iraqi officials are on trial for orchestrating the Anfal campaign that is believed to have killed up to 180,000 Kurds.  Former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was also being tried until his Dec. 30 execution (see GSN, Jan. 3). In one tape played yesterday, the person identified as al-Majid, rejected an offer of a truce from then-Kurdish guerrilla and present Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, AP reported. “My response is that there will be no truce, no negotiation and no cease of the deportations” of Kurds from their home area, the man said.  He then called Talabani “wicked and [a] pimp because he even wants a truce for one day in order to stop the deportation in order to depict himself as the savior of the Kurds.” Al-Majid argued in court that his statements were “psychological and propaganda” tools meant to dissuade Kurds from aiding Iran during its war with Iraq, AP reported. “All the words used by me, such as ‘deport them’ or ‘wipe them out’ were only for psychological effect,” he said. However, a Kurdish lawyer said that the words “are part of the culture of this man who is ready to attack Kurds with chemical weapons for whatever reason” (Sameer Yacoub, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Jan. 23). Back to top       Arguments Made in D.C. Rail Ban Lawsuit A federal judge yesterday heard arguments in a lawsuit over the District of Columbia’s right to prohibit trains carrying hazardous materials from passing through the nation’s capital, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Aug. 16, 2006). The District Council passed the ban in 2005, concerned that chlorine or other materials carried by rail could become weapons for terrorists.  Rail operator CSX Inc. quickly sued, arguing that the council had exceeded its authority and could be initiating a trend that would cripple the necessary movement of such materials around the country. The ban has yet to take effect.  Proposed federal regulations on shipments of hazardous substances might not come into force for months or years, if ever, and are not as restrictive as those proposed by the District. U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan previously backed the city, but an appeals court overturned his decision. Lawyers yesterday came back before Sullivan.  The major issue in nearly two hours of arguments was whether federal law could pre-empt the D.C. rule, the Post reported.  States are allowed to pass rail safety and security laws until federal regulations are issued covering that area. Critics say that present U.S. rail security rules reject including hazardous materials bans in federal regulations, meaning local governments cannot pass such laws.  Backers of the D.C. ban say that drafters of existing regulations did not consider such a rule and that because the Transportation Department, rather than the Homeland Security Department, issued the regulations, they cannot pre-empt local rules. Sullivan did not say when he would issue his ruling (Henri Cauvin, Washington Post, Jan. 24). Back to top

Chinese Antisatellite Test Took Four Tries to Work China’s successful antisatellite test this month followed three failed efforts over the past two years, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Jan. 23). All four tests used a commercial rocket boost a nonexplosive antisatellite warhead into space.  In the successful Jan. 11 test, the warhead crashed into and destroyed a Feng Yun-1C weather satellite that had been launched in 1999, according to the Times. Afterward, China said other nations should not be concerned by the test. “What needs to be stressed is that China has always advocated the peaceful use of space, opposes the weaponization of space and arms races in space,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao. U.S. officials, however, were surprised and alarmed by the level of technology the test demonstrated. “The ASAT test showed they are not following us [militarily] but trying to leap ahead,” said one defense official (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Jan. 24). Back to top       Czech Republic Agrees to Missile Defense Talks The Czech Republic agreed today to enter talks with the United States on housing components of U.S. missile defenses, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 23). “The building of this antimissile system is in line with NATO intentions,” Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek told Czech radio.  “Its positioning in central Europe should strengthen not only the security of the Czech Republic but also all European allies.” Washington formally announced last week that it hoped to deploy a missile defense radar system in the Czech Republic and missile interceptors in Poland. It is likely to take a year to finish negotiations and obtain approval from both chambers of the Czech Parliament and the country’s president, Topolanek said. Critics of the plan worry that it could make the Czech Republic an early target in a nuclear war, and that it would damage relations with Russia, which has been outspoken in its opposition to placing missile defense systems in Eastern Europe.  There are also objections to accepting a base that could be under U.S. jurisdiction, AP reported (Associated Press I/Kyiv Post, Jan. 24). “In our town we have had bad experiences with foreign military personnel.  A U.S. base would not bring us any good,” said Josef Rihak, mayor of the town of Pribram (Agence France-Presse I, Jan. 23). Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said today that negotiations between the United States, the Czech Republic and Poland would be merely a formality, AP reported. “It’s done mostly to assuage domestic public opinion,” he said.  “The decision already has been made and the talks serve simply as cover.  Like other new NATO members, the Czech Republic and Poland want to show their loyalty” (Associated Press II/New York Times, Jan. 24). Moscow said yesterday it hopes to conduct meetings with U.S. and European officials on the missile defense plans, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Jan. 23). “Russia needs to discuss this with its American and European colleagues,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak.  “We do not understand why the United States wants to deploy an antimissile defense system.  These plans are not inspired by global security interests” (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, Jan. 23). Back to top

About Newswire  |  Contact National Journal  |  Re-Use Guidelines

© Copyright 2008 by National Journal Group, Inc. The material in this section is produced independently for NTI by National Journal Group, Inc. Any reproduction or retransmission, in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of the National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.