Iranian nuclear energy chief Gholamreza Aghazadeh. Iran next month is set to begin installing 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges in an underground facility, the International Atomic Energy Agency said (Dieter Nagl/Getty Images). IAEA Says Iran to Install Thousands of Centrifuges Underground Iran next month plans to begin installation of thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges in an underground facility, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said today (see GSN, Jan. 25). Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mohamed ElBaradei said, “I understand they are going to build up their 3,000 centrifuge facility … sometime next month,” the Associated Press reported. Other U.N. officials said Iran has not said officially it would install the 3,000-centrifuge cascade at Natanz but that senior Iranian representatives have indicated that work would proceed next month (George Jahn, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Jan. 26)...Full Story

Iran Poised to Launch Satellite on Ballistic Missile Iran is set to launch a satellite into space using a modified 30-ton ballistic missile, Aviation Week and Space Technology reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 2, 2006)...Full Story

Bust Shows Lack of Radioactive Materials Control The arrest in Georgia of a Russian man trying to sell highly enriched uranium illustrates the lack of controls on radioactive material in former Soviet republics, and how easily it can be smuggled, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 25)...Full Story

	Friday, January 26, 2007

Key Parts of House Security Bill May Die in Senate Provisions in a House bill requiring that all U.S.-bound containers be scanned for radiation at overseas ports and that all cargo on passenger planes be screened for explosives are not expected to pass the Senate, the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee said Wednesday (see GSN, Jan. 10). As part of their “100 hours” agenda, the House Democrats produced legislation that implemented a number of recommendations made by the Sept. 11 commission, along with the port and air cargo mandates.  The bill passed earlier this month by a vote of 299-128. However, critics questioned the feasibility of scanning all sea cargo heading to the United States within a five-year deadline.  Late last year, Homeland Security Director Michael Chertoff called such a goal admirable but unrealistic, suggesting it could cut the flow of international trade to the United States by three quarters (see GSN, Sept. 27, 2006). The head of the Transportation Security Administration has also questioned the air cargo plan, saying it would produce a “very small, incremental benefit for security” (see GSN, Jan. 18). Speaking to reporters this week, Representative Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) said that the provisions that drew the most criticism are unlikely to appear in a Senate version of the bill, the Associated Press reported. “With the exception of ports and cargo screening,” he said, “everything else should go through.” Thompson cited conversations his staff has had with Senate staffers about what could be expected to appear when the Senate takes up the legislation. Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) expects his committee’s version to “be compatible with the goals and spirit of the House bill,” his office said in a statement. Thompson said he hopes that by March — the anniversary of the Madrid train bombing of 2004 — his House committee would be able to advance legislation to provide rail security grants (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Jan. 24). Back to top

IAEA Says Iran to Install Thousands of Centrifuges Underground Iran next month plans to begin installation of thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges in an underground facility, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said today (see GSN, Jan. 25). Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mohamed ElBaradei said, “I understand they are going to build up their 3,000 centrifuge facility … sometime next month,” the Associated Press reported. Other U.N. officials said Iran has not said officially it would install the 3,000-centrifuge cascade at Natanz but that senior Iranian representatives have indicated that work would proceed next month (George Jahn, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Jan. 26). Iran insists its nuclear program is for purely peaceful, energy-production purposes, but the United States and other nations suspect that the uranium enrichment effort is part of a weapons program. The United Nations has demanded Iran halt its enrichment program and imposed sanctions in response to Tehran’s rejection of that order. ElBaradei also said a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be “catastrophic” and galvanize it to make atomic weapons.  While noting that western intelligence pegs Iran just four years from the capacity to make a nuclear weapon, he said the U.N. nuclear watchdog has uncovered no evidence of such aims. “They have the knowledge; sure they have the knowledge,” he said regarding the Iranian nuclear program.  “Are you going to bomb the knowledge?” ElBaradei said the Iran issue was not yet a case requiring U.N.-sanctioned force as a final option against a rogue regime.  “In the case of Iran, we are absolutely far from away it,” he said (George Jahn, Associated Press II/MSNBC.com, Jan. 25). Meanwhile, Tehran has demanded that the IAEA official in charge of inspections in Iran be removed, Reuters reported. A diplomat said Friday that Iran sent a letter to the agency in Vienna requesting Chris Charlier be removed as Iran section head.  Iran last year had barred the Belgian official from entering the country. “Both Iran and the (IAEA) are informed that this inspector has passed confidential Iranian nuclear information…to inappropriate countries and their media,” an Iranian diplomat told the IRNA news agency (Mark Heinrich, Reuters, Jan. 26). The request follow Iran’s ban on 38 IAEA inspectors from Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and United States.  Those are nations that developed or supported the U.N. sanctions. The agency has asked that Iran rethink that decision, a spokeswoman said Thursday, according to Agence-France Presse.  Only a “few” of the 38 inspectors “are actually working on Iran, the rest are not,” a diplomatic source said. Another diplomat said that the nuclear watchdog was “pushing back” as “no country has ever de-designated so many inspectors in one go. “This is not the type of action that facilitates resolving issues,” the diplomat said on the condition on anonymity (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/The Independent, Jan. 25). Back to top       Bust Shows Lack of Radioactive Materials Control The arrest in Georgia of a Russian man trying to sell highly enriched uranium illustrates the lack of controls on radioactive material in former Soviet republics, and how easily it can be smuggled, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 25). There are four enrichment plants in the former Soviet Union.  However, they have produced hundreds of tons of material that has been spread around more than 50 separate sites. Russia has received billions of dollars from Western nations to improve monitoring of radioactive material.  Due to poor accounting, though, it is not known how much material has disappeared from those sites since the communist superpower collapsed, AP reported. In addition, highly enriched uranium is used by the nuclear power programs of more than 50 nations. It might not be possible to determine where Oleg Khinsagov obtained the 100 grams of weapon-grade uranium he tried to sell to undercover agents in Georgia. Chemical analysis “could possibly only tell you where it was initially produced,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported numerous cases in the last few years of small-level smuggling of nuclear material.  While Khinsagov carried only a small amount, he indicated he had more. “It could be a significant amount was taken this time and 100 grams was just the sample,” Albright said. “Given the serious consequences of the detonation of an improvised nuclear explosive device, even small numbers of incidents involving HEU or plutonium (the two main explosive materials for atom bombs) are of very high concern,” IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming told Agence France-Presse. “Trafficking incidents involving nuclear material point to possible weaknesses and may be indicative of the illicit availability of larger undetected quantities,” she said (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/Sunday Times, Jan. 25). A terrorist organization with the right expertise could create a nuclear weapon with just 30 to 40 pounds of highly enriched uranium.  It would take at least 100 pounds to produce a more primitive weapons, according to AP. Plans for a nuclear weapon could be found on the black market, Albright said (Matt Crenson, Associated Press I/New York Times, Jan. 25). Georgian officials have claimed that Russia has not assisted efforts to determine the origin of the uranium and whether Khinsagov actually had more, AP reported. Moscow has rejected that criticism, saying the Georgia has failed to provide information regarding the case and delivered a uranium sample so small that its place of origin could not be determined. “If this uranium did come from Russia, the Russian authorities need to take this problem very seriously,” said Moscow-based defense analyst Alexander Pikayev.  “There is work going on in this direction but this incident shows that all is not well” (Henry Meyer, Associated Press II/Contra Costa Times, Jan. 26). A senior Russian scientist acknowledged today that the material confiscated in Georgia was weapon grade, AP reported (Associated Press II/New York Times, Jan. 26). Back to top       Budget Proposal Contains $300 Million For RRW A U.S. Defense Department budget proposal for the next two fiscal years includes $300 million for a controversial plan to update  the nuclear warheads in the nation’s stockpile, Inside the Pentagon reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 16). The Pentagon’s anticipates spending $80 million over two years for early work on the Reliable Replacement Warhead, which calls for producing a new, sturdier weapon for the U. S. arsenal, according to the internal documents obtained by InsideDefense.com.  The research and development money would be allocated in a $30 million chunk in fiscal 2008 and a $50 million allotment in fiscal 2009 and would fall under the Navy’s budget. The Navy would also receive between $52 million and $58. 9 million annually over the next four years for strategic weapons modernization. Administered by the National Nuclear Security Administration, the Reliable Replacement Warhead program has been promoted as a way to reduce the maintenance required to safely sustain the aging nuclear stockpile. The early goal is to develop a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (Jason Sherman, Inside the Pentagon, Jan. 25). Back to top       North Korea Talks Said Ready to Resume There were continued indications today that the next round of six-nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear program would resume in early February, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 25). South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon, following meetings with Chinese officials in Beijing, said he expected the talks would resume before Feb. 10. Unidentified officials in Tokyo told Kyodo News that negotiators were considering reconvening on Feb. 8. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov, Moscow’s envoy to the negotiations, said he believed that participants would meet from Feb. 5 to 8 in Beijing.  “Concrete details on the agenda” remain to be determined, he said, according to ITAR-Tass (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Jan. 26). Meanwhile, the United States today officially prohibited the export of luxury items to North Korea, Reuters reported.  The move was a response to U.N. Security Council sanctions approved following Pyongyang’s Oct. 9 nuclear test. Items now denied to the North Korean elite include luxury automobiles, yachts, perfumes, furs, tobacco, designer clothing and electronic software (Reuters I/Yahoo!News, Jan. 26). Japan is also considering increasing economic sanctions intended to push North Korea to end its nuclear weapons efforts, Reuters reported.  Tokyo might extend the ban on Japanese imports to the Stalinist state and its prohibition on use of Japanese ports by North Korean ships, one senior official said. “No further development has taken (place) yet but there is no doubt we will continue our sanctions.  If these sanctions don’t work we have to think about doing something more, probably heavier sanctions,” said national security adviser Yuriko Koike (Reuters II/New York Times, Jan. 26). Elsewhere, South Korea today denied that money from the two main economic cooperation programs it conducts with North Korea is used to fund Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program, Reuters reported.  The statement follows U.S. allegations that North Korea has used money from the U.N. Development Program to further its nuclear ambitions. “The most frequently raised criticism of Seoul’s policy toward the North is that cash transferred to North Korea through inter-Korean cooperation projects has been diverted to the development of its nuclear weapons,” said Unification Minister Lee Jae-Jong. “However, this criticism is based on unidentified assumptions (rather) than on firm grounds” (Reuters III/New York Times, Jan. 26). Back to top       U.K. Needs Nuclear Deterrent, Defense Chief Says The United Kingdom must replace its Trident nuclear missile system in order to ensure it maintains a functioning nuclear deterrent, Defense Secretary Des Browne said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 25). “While right now there is no nuclear threat, we cannot be sure one will not re-emerge,” he said during a speech at King’s College in London.  “There is no realistic prospect of a world without nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future.” “Many countries that are trying to acquire nuclear weapons … are in unstable zones that will become more unstable in the future,” he said, according to Agence France-Presse. The British government says its four Trident nuclear submarines will reach the end of their life spans around 2025.  The nuclear warheads themselves would remain usable until 2042, AFP reported. “The question is, given that this power exists, is it wrong for us to have it, to deter others from using it against us?” Browne said (Agence France-Presse, Jan. 25). Browne said British nuclear weapons “should not be used for anything other than deterring extreme threats to our national security,” the Financial Times reported.  That means using them for self-defense or in defense of allies, and only during a major crisis, he indicated.  That does not rule out first use of nuclear weapons, according to the Times (Stephen Fidler, Financial Times, Jan. 26). Back to top       Middle East Nuclear Programs a Decade Away, Blix Says It would take at least 10 years for Egypt or Jordan to launch nuclear energy programs, former U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix said Thursday in Cairo (see GSN, Jan. 19). He urged Egypt to sign the Additional Protocols allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct more intrusive inspections of any nuclear sites, the Associated Press reported.  Jordan has already pledged to allow such measures, Blix said. “I think it is desirable for world confidence that nuclear power is being used for peaceful purposes.  A good and effective inspection system is needed.  I hope Egypt joins as soon as possible,” he said. In the shadow of Iran’s continued push for nuclear-enrichment technology, which many suspect is part of a weapons program, Egypt, Jordan and other Gulf states have expressed their own desire for nuclear energy programs. While Blix noted that Iran has the right under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to enrich uranium, he stressed that that capacity could create tension in the Middle East.  Iran has to date ignored the U.N. Security Council’s demand that it halt uranium enrichment (see related GSN story, today). Blix said he was supportive of the Egypt’s and Jordan’s expressed goals.  “I am positive to Jordan and am also positive to Egypt for nuclear power,” he said according to AP. He cautioned, however, that concerns about nonproliferation, operational safety, and waste disposal would have to be addressed before those countries begin their efforts. “We will need then to have a system … of commitments on nonproliferation and a system of inspection in place to give the confidence,” he said. The International Atomic Energy Agency in 2005 scrutinized Egypt’s nuclear activities, concluding that Egypt had been conducting atomic research for up to 40 years (see GSN, March 2, 2005).  The agency determined, however, that that research was not directed toward a nuclear weapon and did not involve enrichment. Both Egypt and Jordan are signatories to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and have made calls for Middle East free of unconventional weapons. Pressed on the Iran standoff, Blix said Tehran should be offered as inducements normalized relations with the international community and security assurances (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Jan. 26). Back to top

Umatilla to Finish off Sarin Weapons The Umatilla Chemical Depot in Oregon by Monday is scheduled to begin destroying its last stockpile of weapons containing the nerve agent sarin, the U.S. Army announced yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 4). Workers yesterday began moving 155 mm shells to the Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal Facility. The sarin weapons disposal campaign is expected to be finished by mid-2007. Munitions carrying VX nerve agent and bulk containers of mustard agent remain to be destroyed.  It will take several years to completely eliminate the Umatilla chemical weapons stockpile, according to the Army. The depot to date has incinerated more than 108,000 bombs, rockets, 8-inch projectiles and 8-inch containers.  Eliminated items contained 860 tons of chemical agent, roughly 24 percent of the total amount stored at Umatilla (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Jan. 25). Back to top

Iran Poised to Launch Satellite on Ballistic Missile Iran is set to launch a satellite into space using a modified 30-ton ballistic missile, Aviation Week and Space Technology reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 2, 2006). The launch could also function to test Iranian missile technology for use in a long-range strike.  There are concerns that space launches could eventually give Iran the capacity to field an ICBM. The launcher has been assembled and “will lift off soon” according to Alaeddin Borujerdi, chairman of the Iranian parliament’s foreign policy and national security committee. Iran’s space launch and continued missile development programs, U.S. intelligence agencies say, expose intimate technological ties between North Korea and the regime in Tehran. A missile with a 2,500-mile range, a type of weapon the space launch might allow Iran to perfect, would give the government the ability to strike central Europe, Russia, China and India. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency has told Congress that by 2015 Iran could build a missile with a 3,000-mile range, Aviation Week reported. Analysts believe that is the launcher is adapted from an Iranian Shahab 3 missile, and that changes in the weapon might be the first steps to creating a Iranian version of the North Korean long-range Taepodong 2 ballistic missile. Pyongyang in July conducted a test-launch of that missile — believed to be able fly at least to Alaska — only to see it crash in less than a minute (Craig Covault, Aviation Week and Space Technology, Jan. 25). Back to top

Russia Should not Fear Missile Defense, U.S. Says The head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency said yesterday Russia should not fear damage to its security from placement of missile interceptors in Eastern Europe, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 25). “There is no way, shape or form that 10 interceptors can neutralize the hundreds of missiles in the Russian arsenal,” said Lt. Gen. Henry Obering.  “I can’t be any more plain than that.” Washington hopes to place the interceptors in Poland, along with a radar system in the Czech Republic.  The intent is to counteract missiles from Iran or other unidentified “rogue nations” that could reach Eastern Europe, Obering said. U.S. and Russian officials have met to discuss the missile defense proposal, and more talks are expected, Obering said.  Russian officials might even be allowed to visit the sites. “We have nothing to hide.  But any invitation would be subject to consultations with the host governments,” Obering said. Deployment of interceptors to Poland is scheduled for completion in 2011 or 2012, at a cost of $3.5 billion.  Poland has not yet agreed to house the interceptors (George Gedda, Associated Press I/The Olympian, Jan. 25). The radar base in the Czech Republic would be placed in the Jince military area, roughly 30 miles southwest of Prague, AP reported.  It would begin operations in 2011, and have a staff of about 200 specialists (Associated Press II, Jan. 25). Leaders from Poland and the Czech Republic plan consultations as they decide whether to accept the U.S. offer, AP reported. “I think that our action on the matter will be coordinated,” Polish President Lech Kaczynski said yesterday. As for the final decision, “only God knows in the future,” he said (Associated Press III, Jan. 25). Obering said there are other potential sites in Europe if negotiations fail with Poland and the Czech Republic, Reuters reported. “There are other options and alternatives that we could fall back to if the negotiations were to be not successful,” he said.  Obering did not identify those alternatives. Hungary and the United Kingdom have previously been mentioned as possible sites. A senior Defense Department official said Washington believes that the fallback options would not be necessary (Jim Wolf, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Jan. 25). Russia today continued to blast the plan, AP reported. “We believe that plans for the creation of U.S. missile defenses in Europe are a mistaken step with negative consequences for international security,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said in a prepared statement. Moscow might seek talks to kill the plan, Kamynin indicated.  It will be “a subject of serious analysis and discussion with the United States and its partners,” he said. Russia could be forced to respond to “such a base near our borders,” according to Kamynin.  He did not give details of the potential response, AP reported (Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, Jan. 26).   Back to top

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