Masked executioners place a noose on former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein moments before his death last week, ending the possibility of learning more about Hussein’s past possession and uses of weapons of mass destruction (Getty Images). Hussein’s Death Leaves WMD Questions Unanswered Questions surrounding Iraq’s one-time WMD programs might never be answered following the execution of former President Saddam Hussein, the Los Angeles Times reported Monday (see GSN, Dec. 22, 2006). Hussein was hanged Saturday after being convicted last year of ordering the deaths of 148 people in the town of Dujail, where he survived a 1982 assassination attempt...Full Story

U.S. Plans Economic Push Against Iran In the wake of a U.N. Security Council resolution to impose sanctions against Iran, the United States plans to push other nations and their financial institutions to curb their cooperation with Tehran, Reuters reported Dec. 23 (see GSN, Dec. 22, 2006)...Full Story

North Korea Open to Nuclear Freeze, South Says At six-party talks last month, North Korea indicated that it might suspend operations at its nuclear facilities and allow international inspectors back into the country, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Dec. 22, 2006)...Full Story

	Wednesday, January 3, 2007

Hussein’s Death Leaves WMD Questions Unanswered Questions surrounding Iraq’s one-time WMD programs might never be answered following the execution of former President Saddam Hussein, the Los Angeles Times reported Monday (see GSN, Dec. 22, 2006). Hussein was hanged Saturday after being convicted last year of ordering the deaths of 148 people in the town of Dujail, where he survived a 1982 assassination attempt. At the time of his death, Hussein was being tried on genocide and other charges for orchestrating the Anfal campaign, in which up to 180,000 Iraqi Kurds were killed during the late 1980s.  Witnesses have testified that Hussein’s forces used chemical weapons against their villages; their accounts have been supported by videos and government documents. The trial will continue for Hussein’s six co-defendants, Reuters reported (Reuters/AlertNet, Dec. 30, 2006). Kurdish lawmaker Mahmoud Othman said he had hoped that Hussein would be forced to testify about the campaign.  He expressed worry that the former dictator’s death would damage the case against his fellow defendants and the trials still to be held, the Times reported. Othman also wanted to see Hussein testify on other crackdowns carried out by his regime, including the gas attacks on the Kurdish town of Halabja that are believed to have killed 5,000, assassinations of political opponents, and actions against towns in Southern Iraq following a 1991 Shiite uprising. “Had these cases been brought to trial, a lot of information would have been revealed … about the bad policies of the old regime,” Othman said. It also remains unknown why Hussein continued to indicate to his own military and to the outside world that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction in the buildup to the war.  No evidence of active WMD programs has come to light in the years since the March 2003 invasion. Another unanswered question is to what level Western governments and companies colluded with the regime in Baghdad, according to Joost Hiltermann, Middle East director for the International Crisis Group. One example is that of Frans van Anraat, a Dutch businessman sentenced to 15 years in prison for supplying Iraq with materials used in chemical weapons (see GSN, Oct. 10, 2006).  The United States was also tracking Iraq’s chemical weapons program by 1983, even as Washington provided support for the regime when it went to war with Iran (Solomon Moore, Los Angeles Times, Jan. 1). Back to top

U.S. Plans Economic Push Against Iran In the wake of a U.N. Security Council resolution to impose sanctions against Iran, the United States plans to push other nations and their financial institutions to curb their cooperation with Tehran, Reuters reported Dec. 23 (see GSN, Dec. 22, 2006). The council agreed unanimously Dec. 23 to ban international trade in nuclear and missile technologies with Iran and to freeze the foreign-held assets of 12 individuals and 10 Iranian organizations.  The sanctions would be suspended if Iran freezes its nuclear development programs that could give the nation a nuclear weapon capability. The United States announced quickly, however, that it would pursue additional measures that would be based on the new council resolution. “We don’t think this resolution is enough in itself,” U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns told reporters.  “We’d like to see countries stop doing business as usual with Iran” (Leopold/Arieff, Reuters I/Washington Post, Dec. 23, 2006). In pursuit of that goal, U.S. officials plan soon to begin visiting international capitals to urge other nations to interpret the resolution aggressively by reducing their ties to Iran, the New York Times reported. Some European economic powerhouses, such as France and the United Kingdom, are willing to support Washington’s goal.  Others are more reluctant, including Germany, which has greater economic dealings with Iran, according to the Times (Cooper/Weisman, New York Times I, Jan. 2). Iran has vowed to press on with its nuclear activities. “The Iranian nation is wise and will stick to its nuclear work and is ready to defend it completely,” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said yesterday.  “The U.N. resolution against Iran’s atomic work has no validity for Iranians” (Reuters II/New York Times, Jan. 2). Iran’s parliament last week approved a bill calling for the nation to “revise its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency based on the interests of Iran and its people.” The bill did not define how to modify Iranian cooperation. Some lawmakers said the language reflected a moderate tone by rebuffing conservative legislators who sought to pull the nation from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the Times reported (Nazila Fathi, New York Times II, Dec. 28, 2006). Iranian Nuclear Needs Legit, U.S. Researcher Finds Meanwhile a recent U.S. study appears to bolster Iran’s claims that it needs nuclear power to diversify its energy supply, Reuters reported last week. A report by Johns Hopkins University researcher Roger Stern found that Iran could run out of oil to export within eight years.  The study, published last month in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that Iran’s need for revenue from oil sales could drive it to try to reduce oil consumption at home by developing nuclear power. “It therefore seems possible that Iran’s claim to need nuclear power might be genuine, an indicator of distress from anticipated export revenue shortfalls,” Stern wrote (Jim Wolf, Reuters III/Washington Post, Dec. 26, 2006). Back to top       North Korea Open to Nuclear Freeze, South Says At six-party talks last month, North Korea indicated that it might suspend operations at its nuclear facilities and allow international inspectors back into the country, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Dec. 22, 2006). However, North Korean officials said the United States must eliminate financial sanctions against Pyongyang before they could discuss specifics, according to South Korean nuclear negotiator Chun Young-woo. “What North Korea said it would do is halt the operation (of its nuclear facilities) and allow monitoring by” the International Atomic Energy Agency, Chun told KBS Radio last week. “But the North said it would discuss (specific) issues like what it would demand in return” once Washington had lifted the economic penalties imposed in response to suspected counterfeiting and money laundering by Pyongyang. The latest round of talks in Beijing closed Dec. 22 with no signs of progress in ending the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.  Chun said he could not be sure that negotiators would meet again this month (Kwang-Tae Kim, Associated Press I, Dec. 27, 2006) The United States during the talks said North Korea must take “concrete initial steps” toward nuclear disarmament within two months, RTT News reported last week.  Those steps included suspending work at the Yongbyon nuclear reactor and the resumption of IAEA monitoring, according to Kyodo News (RTT News/NASDAQ.com, Dec. 27, 2006). North Korea said last month it would not immediately suspend its nuclear work even if U.S. economic sanctions were lifted, AP reported. “The U.S. is trying to win a nuclear freeze at once just by lifting the financial sanctions, but that’s not possible,” head North Korean nuclear negotiator Kim Kye Gwan told the South Korean Dong-a Ilbo newspaper. The elimination of sanctions would allow only for the beginning of talks on a nuclear freeze, Kim said (Associated Press II/International Herald Tribune, Dec. 24, 2006). Kim also told the newspaper that North Korean officials would not travel to New York for further negotiations on the sanctions, Agence France-Presse reported.  U.S. Commerce Department officials had hoped to meet their counterparts there following meetings in Beijing last month alongside the six-party talks. “We have no intention to go to New York.  The two sides should find another place,” Kim said.  He said the sanctions issue should be dealt with before the six-party talks resume (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Dec. 25, 2006). Pyongyang on Monday lauded its Oct. 9 nuclear test and pledged to increase its deterrent force, which is code for its nuclear program, Reuters reported. “The D.P.R.K.’s access to a nuclear deterrent was an auspicious event in the national history as it meant the realization of the Korean people’s centuries-old desire to have national strength no one could dare challenge,” the government said in a year-opening editorial published in three newspapers (Reuters I/Yahoo!News, Dec. 31, 2006). South Korea in a white paper published last week designated its neighbor as a grave threat, Reuters reported. “Considering the seriousness of the North’s nuclear test and its WMD threat, this edition of the white paper specified the North as a grave threat,” the South Korean Defense Ministry said in a statement. Seoul called Pyongyang a “direct military threat” in its last white paper published two years ago. North Korea since 1994 is believed to have extracted more than 50 kilograms of plutonium, a Defense Ministry official told Reuters.  More than 30 kilograms of that came amidst negotiations over the last three years aimed at ending the North’s nuclear program (Reuters II/Yahoo!News, Dec. 29, 2006). Fifty kilograms of plutonium could produce up to seven nuclear weapons, according to the South Korean Defense Ministry, AP reported. Pyongyang is also believed to possess the capability to produce anthrax and other biological weapons, and could have up to 5,000 tons of toxic agents stored at various sites (Associated Press/The Australian, Dec. 30, 2006). South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon is in Washington this week for talks with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other Bush administration officials on North Korea’s nuclear program, the Yonhap News Agency reported. “I will be discussing how to move forward the efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue and how to advance the ongoing efforts to improve the South Korea-U.S. alliance,” he said Monday before leaving Seoul (Yonhap News Agency, Jan. 1). Back to top       U.S. Study Finds More Nuclear Trafficking Than IAEA A U.S. review of nuclear trafficking incidents in 2005 has shown that there were twice as many reports of smuggling and mishandling as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Reuters reported last week (see GSN, Aug. 22, 2006). The Homeland Security Department found 215 reports of illicit nuclear trafficking and related activity around the world in 2005, up from 100 incidents in 2000, said department spokesman Jarrod Agen.  The number of reports was more than double the 103 incidents reported by IAEA officials in August. The increase since 2000 was mostly due to improved awareness and reporting, and does not necessarily mean that trafficking has increased, Agen said. “What has doubled is the number of reported events,” he said.  “This is due mainly to an increase in awareness, more comprehensive reporting and an increase in the number of detection devices.” “Only a handful of the known illicit nuclear/radiological trafficking incidents involved weapons-usable nuclear materials,” Agen added.  “Of the known smuggling incidents to date, the vast majority were profit-motivated scams involving bogus materials” (Reuters, Dec. 26, 2006). As part of its efforts to combat nuclear smuggling, the United States announced plans last week to install radiation detectors at multiple border crossings in Slovakia.  U.S. experts have been working with the Slovakian customs officials to survey potential sites, according to a release from the National Nuclear Security Administration. “We are continuing to address terrorist threats around the globe,” said Assistant Deputy Administrator Dave Huizenga in the release.  “Through this program in Slovakia, and through other NNSA nonproliferation programs, we are helping to stop terrorists and criminals from smuggling nuclear and radiological material” (National Nuclear Security Administration release, Dec. 29, 2006). Back to top       Uranium Prices Spur IAEA Monitoring Concerns Growing market prices for uranium have increased concerns that the International Atomic Energy Agency might have difficulty monitoring greater supplies of the material as miners pursue it more aggressively, the London Times reported last week (see GSN, July 21, 2006). Since the beginning of last year, the price of uranium yellowcake has doubled to $72.50 per pound, and some market analysts have predicted the price will hit $100 per pound this year, according to the Times. The price jump has spurred the number of “junior” uranium prospectors to increase by 10 times in recent years, the Times reported. International nuclear inspectors could find it more difficult to monitor a larger mining industry. “The fear is that you don’t know what is going out of a country and in that case you cannot determine whether there might be sufficient material around for someone to start a secret enrichment program,” said a source familiar with the agency’s concerns (David Robertson, The Times, Dec. 26, 2006). Back to top       Feds Move Some Operations Beyond D.C. “Blast Zone” The FBI and other federal agencies are moving some operations into rural Virginia, beyond the anticipated “blast zone” of a nuclear strike on Washington, D.C., the Washington Post reported last week (see GSN, June 24, 2005). Winchester, Va., is about 75 miles away from the nation’s capital, along Interstate 81.  That puts it well outside the 50-mile area in which fallout would be expected following an atomic blast. “There’s a certain distance they need to be out from the strike zone — and Winchester is outside of that,” said city economic redevelopment head Jim Deskins. The FBI plans to open by 2009 a large centralized archive in Winchester that would house 1,200 or more employees.  The Federal Emergency Management Agency plans to build an operations center with 700 employees on a farm near the city, the Post reported. Such moves offer security, planning and financial benefits, according to federal officials. Critics say the federal relocations could promote sprawl in the Shenandoah Valley, and question whether federal workers need to be moved that far away from Washington. “This level of dispersal didn’t even happen at the height of the Cold War,” said Stewart Schwartz, director of the Washington-based Coalition for Smarter Growth.  “We ought to have an open dialogue about what the real threats might be and whether this dispersal is necessary” (Alec MacGillis, Washington Post. Dec. 26, 2006). Back to top       South Asian Rivals Exchange Nuclear Data India and Pakistan exchanged data Monday about their nuclear facilities as part of a confidence-building agreement signed in 1988, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Jan. 3, 2006). The agreement calls on both nations to refrain from attacking each other’s nuclear sites in any military conflict. “Lists of nuclear sites were exchanged between Pakistan and India today,” said Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Jan. 1). Back to top

Umatilla Prepares to Finish Off 8-Inch Projectiles The Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Oregon this week could finish destruction of 8-inch projectiles carrying the nerve agent sarin, the East Oregonian reported (see GSN, Dec. 11, 2006). Disposal of the final weapons in storage was tentatively set to begin today or tomorrow. “As always, no promises because we never know what might stop processing, but that’s our best estimate right now,” Umatilla Chemical Depot spokesman Bruce Henrickson said last week. The facility by last Thursday had eliminated 13,018 8-inch projectiles. This project will be followed by a six-week preparation period ahead of disposal of 47,406 155 mm projectiles filled with sarin.  Those are believed to be the last sarin weapons in Oregon and should be gone by June or July of this year. The facility would then undergo an extensive preparation for disposal of rockets carrying VX nerve agent, the Oregonian reported. “When you change over from one agent to another it takes more time.  You have to clean the whole plant of [sarin],” Henrickson said.  “You don’t want to mix agents.” The changeover is expected to be finished in October.  Elimination of VX nerve agent rockets is due to finish in 2009, followed by disposal of weapons filled with mustard agent.  All weapons are likely to be eliminated by 2012, the international deadline, followed by several years of work cleaning and dismantling the plant (Phil Wright, East Oregonian/Chemical Weapons Working Group, Dec. 29, 2006). Meanwhile, the Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Arkansas expected to resume operations this week following a maintenance period that began Dec. 13, the Pine Bluff Commercial reported. The plant has eliminated 74,405 sarin-filled rockets in 21 months of operations.  That is nearly 83 percent of the sarin rockets stored at the Pine Bluff Arsenal (Rick Joslin, Pine Bluff Commercial, Dec. 31, 2006). Back to top       Researcher Receives $2.7M to Study Mustard Treatment The U.S. National Institutes of Health has awarded a University of Colorado researcher $2.7 million over five years to study whether a dietary supplement could be used to treat people exposed to mustard agent, the Rocky Mountain News reported today (see GSN, Nov. 2, 2006). The milk thistle plant-derived supplement silibinin might be used to block or treat blisters caused by the gas, according to pharmaceutical sciences professor Rajesh Agarwal. “Our long-term strategy is to develop some type of ointment that can be applied to the skin immediately after exposure,” he said. Milk-thistle extracts have previously been shown to help keep mice from developing skin cancer following exposure to ultraviolet radiation.  Skin cells react similarly to ultraviolet radiation as to mustard gas, leading Agarwal to suspect that the extracts might be valuable in treating chemical agent exposure. He will not work with actual mustard gas, instead exposing mice to a less harmful material known as half mustard, the News reported (Jim Erickson, Rocky Mountain News, Jan. 3). Back to top

Canada Warns of “Dirty Bomb” Threat Terrorists seeking to disperse radiation are most likely to use a crude “dirty bomb” that combines conventional explosives with radioactive material, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service said in a report issued last year (see GSN, Oct. 24, 2006). “The technical capability required to construct and use a simple RDD is practically trivial, compared to that of a nuclear explosive device or even most chemical or biological weapons,” according to the October study obtained by The Canadian Press. “Indeed, it is quite surprising that the world has not yet witnessed such an attack,” the study says.  “It appears that we are positively overdue for one.” Material that could be used in such a weapon is used at universities, industrial sites, and medical and research laboratories.  Following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Canada has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on safeguarding nuclear reactors, mines, research sites and laboratories that use radiological material. While the initial casualties from a dirty bomb attack would be limited, the explosion could spread radiation over several city blocks.  Panic and economic damage could follow. The report states that “a determined and resourceful terrorist group” could pull off a larger-scale strike involving nuclear or radiological materials.  That could include obtaining an actual nuclear weapon, putting together an improvised device from illicit material or attacking a nuclear reactor in hopes of releasing radiation, CP reported. One expert said the study fails to assess the likelihood of a terrorist attack involving nuclear or radioactive material. “They need to have an idea of how to prioritize their responses to threats based on their probabilities,” said criminologist Wade Deisman, director of the national security project at the University of Ottawa (Jim Bronskill, Canadian Press/CTV.ca, Jan. 3). Back to top       Nuclear Industry Questions Regulators’ Plan to Put Off Power Plant Security Improvements Measures to protect U.S. nuclear power reactors from large explosions, such as those caused by deliberately crashed aircraft, should be required for new reactor designs to be approved, an industry group urged last month (see GSN, Nov. 9, 2006). In November, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission elected to keep current design standards, ones that do not address the aircraft threat, and to require security improvements later, the Associated Press reported. The Nuclear Energy Institute, however, responded in a Dec. 8 letter that such security improvements should be included during the design phase, not later. “If you need to change the design to accommodate greater security, particularly for large fires and explosions, you want to do that up front in the design process, not after you build the plant,” said institute spokesman Scott Peterson (Kasie Hunt, Associated Press/San Diego Union-Tribune, Dec. 25).   Back to top

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