A branch office of Banco Delta Asia in Macau. Difficulties over transferring North Korean funds from the bank have stalled nuclear diplomacy (Mike Clarke/Getty Images). U.S. Says North Korea Not a Nuclear Weapons State The United States does not consider North Korea to be a nuclear power, a South Korean newspaper today quoted CIA Director Michael Hayden as saying (see GSN, March 27). “The United States does not recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons state,” Hayden said during a meeting in Seoul, according to the JoonAng Ilbo newspaper.  “It’s because the nuclear test last year was a failure.”..Full Story

Lawmaker Calls for NATO Talks on Missile Defense By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The head of a U.S. House panel expressed concerns yesterday that the Bush administration is cutting NATO out of talks to establish missile defense bases in Europe (see GSN, March 21)...Full Story

Iran Nuclear Discussions Could Continue Next Week; Ex-IAEA Official Blasts Iran’s Public Diplomacy European and Iranian officials made little progress Monday in talks on resolving the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program, but could speak again next week, a senior EU diplomat said yesterday (see GSN, March 27)...Full Story

	Wednesday, March 28, 2007

DHS Supplies Training, Equipment to Responders Law enforcement and emergency responders around the United States have received $34.6 million worth of equipment and training, the Homeland Security Department announced yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 6). The agency provided more than 2,000 grants through the fiscal 2006 Commercial Equipment Direct Assistance Program.  The initiative has supported nearly $70 million in equipment and training since beginning in 2005, according to a DHS press release. “CEDAP is yet another mechanism for the department to work with our local homeland security partners in strengthening this nation’s ability to prevent, protect, respond and recover from a natural disaster or terrorist attack,” Homeland Security Preparedness Undersecretary George Foresman said in the release. First responder agencies are eligible through the program to receive personal protective gear; thermal imaging, night vision and video surveillance equipment; chemical and biological detectors; information technology and risk management tools; and interoperable communications technology. Grants are focused on smaller municipalities that are not eligible for support from the Urban Areas Initiative grant program (U.S. Homeland Security Department release, March 27). Back to top

U.S. Seeks New Angle to Prevent WMD Proliferation The U.S. Defense Department has commissioned a new study it hopes will provide an additional strategy in the effort to prevent terrorists from acquiring weapons of mass destruction, the Boston Globe reported today (see GSN, Jan. 25). Social scientists and mathematicians from Boston College and Aptima Inc. of Woburn, Mass., over the next three years are to study the links between terror groups, weapons scientists and suppliers.  The ultimate goal of the “social network analysis” is to see “what are the dynamics of a group or network that decides they are going to employ or even build weapons of mass destruction,” said Robert Kehlet, basic university research coordinator at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. “This is really a new investment area for us,” he said.  “We’d like to know how these networks form, how decisions are made, what kind of influence cultural factors have.” Social network analysis involves plotting cultural and other connections between individuals, groups and computers, the Globe reported.  It could supplement the human intelligence and technological efforts now used against terrorist organizations and to prevent WMD proliferation. “Terrorist organizations do not have organizational charts.  They have relationships, and if you can understand those relationships you have gained valuable intelligence,” said former Navy analyst Montgomery McFate. A number of relationships are necessary to operate a WMD black market like that once led by former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan (see GSN, Nov. 27, 2006).  Such a network would need people able to acquire, move or produce those weapons. “Once you’ve mapped out the network you should be able to know who is going to have power and where you need to put your resources to counter that,” said project leader Stephen Brogatti, head of the Boston College Organization Studies Department (Bryan Bender, Boston Globe, March 28). Back to top       Washington-Area Leaders Seek Federal Help for Terrorism, WMD-Attack Response Planning Washington, D.C.-area leaders sought help from the Homeland Security Department yesterday to improve measures to prevent and respond to terrorist attacks in the region, Capital News Service reported (see GSN, March 30, 2006). The governors of Maryland and Virginia joined Washington Mayor Adrian Fenty in an hourlong meeting with Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff. The group established a list of seven areas that should receive additional federal funding:  coordinated regional planning, WMD response, intelligence sharing, citizen readiness, mass casualty preparedness, communications systems, and security for water, power and transportation sites, according to the news service. “Safety is a collaborative effort,” said Virginia Governor Timothy Kaine. The four officials also announced that joint National Guard exercises are scheduled for September (Scott Shewfelt, Capital News Service/Southern Maryland Online, March 27). Back to top

U.S. Says North Korea Not a Nuclear Weapons State The United States does not consider North Korea to be a nuclear power, a South Korean newspaper today quoted CIA Director Michael Hayden as saying (see GSN, March 27). “The United States does not recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons state,” Hayden said during a meeting in Seoul, according to the JoonAng Ilbo newspaper.  “It’s because the nuclear test last year was a failure.” The yield of the Oct. 9 underground blast has been assessed at less than one kiloton.  A blast of five to 20 kilotons would be expected from a plutonium weapon, which Pyongyang is believed to have used (see GSN, Nov. 21, 2006; Reuters, March 28). Meanwhile, another roadblock has arisen to the transfer of $25 million back to North Korea, which Pyongyang is demanding before it begins meeting its obligations under a Feb. 13 denuclearization agreement, the New York Times reported. The funds were frozen for 18 months at Banco Delta Asia in Macau, which is supposed to move the money to a North Korean account at the Bank of China. The leading account holder, the Daedong Credit Bank in Pyongyang, has warned the Monetary Authority of Macau that moving any of its $7 million would result in legal action.  It opposes transferring the funds to the Bank of China or placing them under North Korean control.  The entire $7 million is the property of legitimate foreign firms that conduct business in North Korea, according to Daedong. North Korea, under the agreement, is scheduled to halt work at its Yongbyon nuclear reactor and allow international inspectors back into the country by mid-April.  It would receive 50,000 tons of fuel oil and equivalent aid for taking those steps, which would be followed by more permanent disarmament work (Donald Greenlees, New York Times, March 27). Back to top       Iran Nuclear Discussions Could Continue Next Week; Ex-IAEA Official Blasts Iran’s Public Diplomacy European and Iranian officials made little progress Monday in talks on resolving the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program, but could speak again next week, a senior EU diplomat said yesterday (see GSN, March 27). EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said he had a “constructive” telephone call Monday with top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani and that they could speak again early next week. Solana’s latest diplomatic efforts follow the U.N. Security Council’s imposition Saturday of an expanded set of economic sanctions against Iran that are intended to persuade Tehran to suspend its uranium enrichment program (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, March 27). Meanwhile, a former International Atomic Energy Agency official blasted Tehran yesterday, saying Iranian diplomats were pursuing a campaign of “disinformation.” “Recent statements by Iranian officials may confuse the Iranian people and even leaders of the state, and can only reduce international confidence that Iran is acting in good faith,” said former agency Deputy Director Pierre Goldschmidt in a paper released by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and co-authored by George Perkovich, head of Carnegie’s nonproliferation programs. Goldschmidt described a recent statement by Iranian Ambassador to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh as “a masterpiece of disinformation” that made distorted and simply misleading claims about Iran’s cooperation with the agency (see GSN, March 7). Iran has persistently asserted that it has met its nuclear reporting obligations to the agency and that Western powers wish to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear energy facilities, Goldschmidt said. Those claims, however, are incorrect and misleading he said, citing numerous examples of agency reports complaining of Iran’s lack of cooperation.  He also provided a set of Western statements demonstrating an acceptance of Iran’s right to nuclear power. Iran’s diplomatic strategy might have boxed the nation into a corner, Goldschmidt said. “Iran’s leadership has turned the issue of uranium enrichment into a matter of pride and strength, pretending that even suspending these activities would be tantamount to a defeat of the Islamic revolution,” he said.  “Such slogans are counterproductive and make it more difficult for the Iranian leadership to change course.” Still, “with a little imagination and flexibility on both sides, solutions can be found that would lead to major security and economic advantages for the Iranian people,” Goldschmidt said (Carnegie Endowment release, March 27). Back to top       Potential Egyptian Nuclear Program Sparks Concern Egyptian leaders’ consideration of a renewed nuclear power program is adding to concerns that an atomic arms race could ignite in the Middle East, ISN Security Watch said Monday (see GSN, Jan. 26). The ruling National Democratic Party appears to favor resuming the country’s nuclear energy program, which was suspended more than two decades ago when the Chernobyl disaster led Egypt to halt preparations for a 1,000-megawatt reactor. Egypt continues to oppose WMD proliferation in the region, officials say.  While nuclear reactors, fuel and technology could support a weapons program, one expert said that Egypt’s interest in a program is solely “economic.” Egypt would be willing to import and return reactor fuel, so that it would not develop uranium enrichment expertise that could be used to produce weapons material, said Abdel Hakim Kandil, nuclear and inorganic chemistry professor at Helwan University in Cairo. “You have agreements with the people who supply you with the (nuclear) fuel.  We do not have (uranium) enrichment technology in Egypt,” he said. The most advanced nuclear research programs among Arab states is believed to be Egypt’s.  The International Atomic Energy Agency reported in 2005 that Egypt had performed unreported nuclear research as late as 2003 (see GSN, March 2, 2005).  These “secret nuclear experiments” involved work “that could be used in weapons programs,” diplomatic sources told the Associated Press at the time. A number of Middle Eastern states have recently expressed interest in nuclear power programs (see GSN, Feb. 16).  The United States and other nations suspect that Iran’s effort masks a nuclear weapons program (see related GSN story, today). There is no connection between Iran’s program and Egypt’s renewed interest in nuclear power, Mohamed Shaker, vice president of the Egyptian Foreign Affairs Council, told ISN Security Watch. “I think (the decision) emanates from the fact that we really won’t have oil and gas in 40 years,” he said. “The final decision has not been made yet on reactivating the nuclear power program.  It is a preliminary decision.  It is still be discussed in the ruling party and in the Higher Council of Energy,” Shaker said (Dominic Moran, ISN Security Watch, March 26). Back to top

Sarin Leak Found at Umatilla Trace amounts of sarin nerve agent leaked recently in a U.S. munitions storage building at the Umatilla Chemical Depot in Oregon, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb 26). Workers discovered the gas yesterday while checking on a storage “igloo” that holds some weapons that have leaked in the past, said depot spokesman Jim Hackett.  None of the lethal vapors escaped the igloo or posed a danger to the public, he added. The leak was the first detected since November, Hackett said, adding that fewer incidents have occurred since the site finished incinerating sarin-filled M55 rockets, the most leak-prone munitions (see GSN, Jan. 4). The site is now burning sarin-filled 155 mm artillery shells (see GSN, Jan. 26), some of the 100,000 weapons that remain to be destroyed at the depot as part of U.S. efforts to comply with the international Chemical Weapons Convention, AP reported (Associated Press/KPTV.com, March 27). Back to top

Lawmaker Calls for NATO Talks on Missile Defense By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The head of a U.S. House panel expressed concerns yesterday that the Bush administration is cutting NATO out of talks to establish missile defense bases in Europe (see GSN, March 21). The United States is in discussions to place 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a powerful radar station in the Czech Republic to counter what military officials say is an increasing ballistic missile threat from Iran. The installations would provide additional defenses both to European allies and the United States.  If plans proceed smoothly, development of the bases is expected to begin in 2008.  The U.S. push for the interceptors has, however, alarmed officials in Moscow who say the deployment would damage Russian strategic security (see GSN, March 8).  Russian officials have suggested that bombers could destroy the missile installations if plans were to proceed.  Moscow has also threatened to pull out of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which bans missiles with ranges between 300 and 3,400 miles (see GSN, March 6). House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee Chairwoman Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) called for the United States to engage NATO as a group rather than speaking just to the individual countries in which it hopes to base its missile defense installations. “I’m concerned that the Bush administration’s current proposal — to move forward with the proposed deployment on a bilateral basis with Poland and the Czech Republic — has not been sufficiently coordinated with NATO,” Tauscher  said (see GSN, March 5). NATO encompasses the United States, Canada and 24 European nations — but not Russia.  Tauscher expressed her support for a defensive missile shield, but said the current plan “lacks a strong NATO foundation.”  “Why aren’t we looking for a NATO endorsement of deployment?” she asked Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategic Capabilities Brian Green during a hearing. Green responded that the alliance very rarely develops its own military capabilities.  Rather, an individual country or small group forges ahead, he said. “The bilateral approach is very common in NATO and I think a reasonable one in this circumstance,” Green said. Contending that there is strong support for the missile defense proposal within the defense alliance, Green said working through NATO as a body could pose obstacles the United States would rather avoid. The alliance makes decisions by consensus, so persuading NATO to endorse the U.S. effort would require unanimity among all 26 members.  “I think it’s fair to say there’s strong support in NATO — that support is growing over time — but to achieve unanimity in any organization like NATO is a very difficult challenge,” Green said. Seeking NATO’s endorsement would allow any one nation essentially to veto the proposal, which Green said was critical for U.S. national security as well as security in Europe. “I think we’d be very reluctant to go down that path,” he said. While Tauscher noted that it would be easier to “pick off” a few U.S. allies to support the missile defense plan, she said that could lead to the United States developing one missile shield and other European nations deploying a separate system.  Tauscher suggested there is a chance the systems would not be “interoperable” — meaning they might be unable to work effectively together in the face of a missile threat. “I would feel a lot more comfortable if the administration was negotiating directly with NATO,” she said.  “It is tough to get to 26, I understand that.  But in the end it seems to me that that is really what we want to be doing.” Green was joined by Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.  Obering reiterated intelligence agency estimates that Iran could be armed with an ICBM by 2015. Back to top

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