International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei said today he sees improvement in the North Korean nuclear standoff, but that the stalemate persists with Iran (Greg Webb/Global Security Newswire, March 5). Iran, North Korea Nuclear Cases Diverging, Says IAEA Chief By Greg Webb Global Security Newswire VIENNA — The Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises appear to be headed in different directions, the top U.N. nuclear official said today, offering a grim assessment of the Iranian situation and some hope for resolving the North Korean standoff (see GSN, March 2). On Iran, “the current situation remains somewhat of a stalemate,” International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei told diplomats in Vienna at the start of a meeting of the agency’s governing board...Full Story

New Warhead Faces Uncertain Path Forward in Congress By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Having announced a design for the nation’s first new nuclear weapon in decades, the Bush administration must now prepare to fight for the Reliable Replacement Warhead on Capitol Hill (see GSN, March 2)...Full Story

U.S., North Korean Nuclear Negotiators to Meet The lead nuclear negotiators from the United States and North Korea are scheduled to meet on U.S. soil today for the first time in New York, Reuters reported (see GSN, March 2)...Full Story

	Monday, March 5, 2007

Terror Hearing Begins in Australia Australia today began what is expected to be a lengthy process of determining if there is sufficient evidence to try nine members of a suspected Islamic terror cell for planning to attack Australia’s sole nuclear reactor, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 14). A judge in Sydney began hearing evidence from prosecutors planning to show that the nine men were stockpiling chemicals, digital timers, detonators and batteries.  Among the possible targets was the Lucas Height reactor on the outskirts of Sydney, according to police. The group’s members were arrested in 2005 and face charges related to explosives production and terrorism. The hearing is expected to last three months (Meraiah Foley, Associated Press/Washington Post, March 5). Back to top

U.S. Intel Reform Not Taking Root, Lawmaker Says Poorly implemented bureaucratic reforms have degraded the quality of U.S. intelligence on key international security issues, a leading Republican lawmaker complained yesterday (see GSN, March 2). “We still don’t have the intelligence community overall to give us, as policy-makers, the information that we need to make good decisions in North Korea, Iran and other places,” said Representative Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.), his party’s senior member of the House Select Committee on Intelligence. “We’ve had problems in standing this up and developing more bureaucracy, and it’s a concern about the leadership in the intelligence community, not the folks who are working this 24/7,” he added (Eric Pfeiffer, Washington Times, March 5). Back to top

Iran, North Korea Nuclear Cases Diverging, Says IAEA Chief By Greg Webb Global Security Newswire VIENNA — The Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises appear to be headed in different directions, the top U.N. nuclear official said today, offering a grim assessment of the Iranian situation and some hope for resolving the North Korean standoff (see GSN, March 2). On Iran, “the current situation remains somewhat of a stalemate,” International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei told diplomats in Vienna at the start of a meeting of the agency’s governing board. He reminded them that “the agency has been verifying Iran’s nuclear program for the past four years.”  However, he added, “quite a few uncertainties still remain about experiments, procurements, and other activities relevant to our understanding of the scope and nature of Iran’s program.  This renders the agency unable to provide the required assurance about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.” ElBaradei often limits his comments to the agency’s technical responsibilities, or to general support for negotiations.  His remarks today appeared to show his continuing frustration with Iran’s political decisions, which he criticized strongly at the previous board meeting (see GSN, Nov. 28, 2006). Iran’s diplomatic strategy “is difficult to understand,” he told the board.  “Only through full cooperation with the agency … can Iran dispel the doubts about its nuclear program Iranian officials in Vienna were unswayed, reiterating their demand that U.N. Security Council sanctions be waived before Tehran will improve its cooperation with the agency. “We are prepared … to deal with the few remaining outstanding questions, which are of course beyond our legal obligation, provided that this nuclear dossier is [sent] back to the IAEA where it belongs,” Iranian delegation leader Ali Asghar Soltanieh told reporters today after ElBaradei delivered his statement to the board. Soltanieh sought to make the best of Iran’s diplomatic situation, praising ElBaradei’s recent assessment of Iran’s nuclear program that was circulated late last month to the 35 nations on the board. He highlighted that report’s finding that “the agency is able to verify the nondiversion of declared nuclear material in Iran.” “This is the best document to prove our assertion that our activities are exclusively for peaceful purposes,” Soltanieh said.  “This is a good result.” He did not cite other features of that report, which said that without more Iranian transparency, “the agency will not be able to provide assurances about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran or about the exclusively peaceful nature of that program.” Above all, Soltanieh reaffirmed Iran’s never-compromise position in the nuclear crisis. Speaking slowly for emphasis, Soltanieh said, “Iran will never give up its inalienable right for peaceful uses of nuclear energy.” Until Iran reaches agreement with the Security Council, however, its nuclear pursuits will require increasing amounts of independent work.  The IAEA board is expected this week to ratify cuts to technical assistance the agency once provided Tehran, but was required to reduce earlier this year to comply with economic sanctions the council approved in December (see GSN, Jan. 3). On North Korea, ElBaradei offered more optimism that a long-term solution could be in sight. He announced that he would be traveling to North Korea next week — a two-day visit starting March 13, according to agency officials here — to begin implementation of the six-party agreement reached Feb. 13 in Beijing.  That deal calls for the agency to verify a North Korean freeze of its plutonium production activities at Yongbyon. “This file has been going from bad to worse in the last five to 10 years and this is the first time that we’ve seen now a concrete step to reverse course and to hopefully work collectively as an international community toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” ElBaradei said in a press briefing today. “I hope that within the coming few weeks we’ll be able to reach an agreement that could be blessed by our Board of Governors here,” he said.  A special meeting of the board could be called after his return to formally approve the return of agency inspectors to North Korea, which kicked out the last batch in late 2002 (see GSN, Dec. 31, 2002). Meanwhile, leading U.N. nations have continued efforts to begin drafting a new Security Council resolution to ratchet up pressure on Tehran.  The December resolution imposed limited economic sanctions and set a February deadline for Iran to freeze its sensitive nuclear activities.  With Iran having ignored the deadline, the five permanent council members and Germany have held what-to-do-next consultations, most recently by conference call Saturday, according to Reuters. “There is still some work to be done on a few outstanding issues, but all parties remain committed to a second resolution in the near future,” said U.S. State Department spokesman Kurtis Cooper. A draft resolution could go before the whole council as soon as this week, according to the council’s president, South African Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo, Reuters reported. “Between Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, they expect us to have some draft, depending on the discussions [of] the political directors,” Kumalo said, Reuters reported. Back to top       New Warhead Faces Uncertain Path Forward in Congress By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Having announced a design for the nation’s first new nuclear weapon in decades, the Bush administration must now prepare to fight for the Reliable Replacement Warhead on Capitol Hill (see GSN, March 2). Discussion of the controversial program is all but assured Wednesday when Gen. James Cartwright, head of U.S. Strategic Command, appears before the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee. Subcommittee Chairwoman Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) said Friday’s announcement of an initial design “is only an early step in what will be a long evaluation process.” “We will further examine the proposed path forward on RRW, through hearings that start next week with an appearance by General Cartwright before our subcommittee,” she said in a joint statement Friday with ranking panel Republican Terry Everett (Ala.). Officials from the National Nuclear Security Administration and the Defense Department last week tapped a team from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California to lead the effort to replace the W-76 submarine-launched warhead with a new design. The decision of the Livermore design over an entry from Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico was made primarily because the California design draws on nuclear elements that had previously undergone underground explosive testing, officials said. That means the Livermore design would be able to enter the nation’s nuclear stockpile without nuclear testing, acting NNSA Administrator Thomas D’Agostino said Friday.  That the Livermore entry was more closely linked to previous testing makes officials more confident in the ability to certify the design without ever detonating it, he said. Concerns about testing were and remain central in the debate over the Reliable Replacement Warhead program.  If approved by Congress, the program could result in the eventual replacement of the entire U.S. stock of aging nuclear warheads with weapons officials say would be easier and safer to maintain. Some experts have argued that the program, which would see a more than threefold increase in funding to $88 million through the president’s proposed fiscal 2008 budget, could not produce an acceptable warhead without testing (see GSN, Feb. 6).  That could pose a problem with Congress, where the program faces a potentially rocky path forward. Tauscher supports the effort but has said if the new warheads require testing she would see no alternative but to pull funding from the program. The United States has signed but not ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. House Appropriations Energy and Water Subcommittee Chairman Peter Visclosky (D-Ind.), whose panel oversees funding of nuclear weapons facilities, has criticized the lack of a coherent policy supporting the RRW program.  He has called for a comprehensive outline describing the mission and size of stockpile necessary for the nation’s strategic nuclear goals and has also called for hearings on the program. “This announcement puts the cart before the horse,” he said in a statement Friday.  “Although a lot of time and energy went in (to) determining a winning design for a new nuclear warhead, there appears to have been little thought given to the question of why the United States needs to build new nuclear warheads at this time.” While Lawrence Livermore is set to lead development of the nuclear components of the new design, scientists from Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico would be in charge of the weapon’s non-nuclear parts.  Cost estimates for the new weapons, along with engineering and production plans, are scheduled to be developed over the next year and then presented to Congress. There are features of the Los Alamos design that NNSA officials called “highly innovative” and will be developed in parallel with the Livermore design program.  Elements from the New Mexico facility’s entry might be incorporated into the new warhead intended to be fitted on the Navy’s submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The announcement was originally expected in January.  It was delayed in part by concerns from the Navy, which will oversee the RRW project team, over funding control of the project, officials said. Officials within the U.S. nuclear complex argue that the program is needed to maintain the safety and reliability of the nation’s stockpile despite the arsenal being certified as safe and reliable each year.  The current Stockpile Stewardship Program results in minor alterations to the warheads that over time could require a return to underground testing to ensure their continued viability, official say. In justifying the program, officials say the new warheads would incorporate more modern parts and simplify stockpile maintenance.  The new weapons would also incorporate insensitive high explosives and more sophisticated safeguards, making them less vulnerable to accidents or possible detonation by terrorists. Rather than representing an increase in the number of nuclear weapons maintained by the United States, officials argue that the RRW program would allow the nation to eventually decrease its atomic arsenal.  The sheer size of the current arsenal, which was maintained as a hedge against a possible failure of weapons, could be reduced as more robust warheads are brought online, according to officials. The Moscow Treaty requires the United States and Russia to both reduce the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads to between 1,700 and 2,200 by 2012. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, called the RRW program unnecessary.  “The existing stockpile is reliable,” he said. If the administration is truly concerned about reducing the size of the stockpile, its options include reassessing the role of the arsenal and the current set of targets, Kimball said.  With its huge arsenal of warheads, the United States is still postured to fight the Cold War, he noted.  “I don’t think these arguments add up under closer examination.” Back to top       U.S., North Korean Nuclear Negotiators to Meet The lead nuclear negotiators from the United States and North Korea are scheduled to meet on U.S. soil today for the first time in New York, Reuters reported (see GSN, March 2). The meeting is aimed at beginning normalization of diplomatic relations, following the Feb. 13 deal in which Pyongyang agreed to nuclear disarmament in exchange for fuel and other aid from its negotiating partners. On the agenda for the two-day meeting are North Korea’s place on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism and Washington’s economic sanctions against the Stalinist regime. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill is expected to press for assurances from Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan that North Korea plans to meet its commitment to shut down in Yongbyon nuclear facility and allow nuclear inspectors back into the country.  That is to happen within 60 days of the agreement; Pyongyang would then receive 50,000 tons of fuel oil. “They certainly will have to tell Hill what they are doing, what is the timetable, and the results of that will indicate how far and how fast this process is going to move,” said Don Oberdorfer, a Korea expert at Johns Hopkins University (Reuters I/New York Times, March 5). North Korea is ready to follow through on its pledges for the first stage of denuclearization, said South Korean negotiator Chun Young-woo said Saturday in New York following a meeting with Kim. “I don’t think there’s any doubt about the North’s readiness to execute the initial steps,” he said.  “The North has agreed to the initial steps and has the intention to fully do its part” (Reuters II/New York Times, March 4). The Bush administration diplomatic team is expected to inform their counterparts from Pyongyang about U.S. doubts on the extent of North Korea’s uranium enrichment program, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 28).  Officials hope that the move would provide the North with an option for giving up the equipment without losing face.  North Korean officials could offer up the equipment as leftovers from a failed energy program, rather than a weapons effort (David Sanger, New York Times, March 5). The official whose comments last week sparked scrutiny regarding the U.S. assessment of North Korea’s uranium program yesterday complained of “considerable misinterpretation of the intelligence community’s view of North Korean efforts to pursue as uranium enrichment capability,” Agence France-Presse reported. “We have continued to assess efforts by North Korea since 2002,” said Joseph DeTrani, North Korea mission manager for the national intelligence director.  “All intelligence community agencies have at least moderate confidence that North Korea’s past efforts to acquire a uranium enrichment capability continue today.” DeTrani said last week that intelligence officials had “mid-confidence” that Pyongyang continued to seek a uranium enrichment capability, as opposed to the “high confidence” that U.S. officials expressed when they made the allegation in 2002. He later said that his statement did not revise the earlier assessment, but rather stating that there was less certainly on whether the North Korean program continued today, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, March 4). Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei is scheduled to visit North Korea for two days beginning March 13, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, March 4). The U.N. Development Program has halted work in North Korea, following U.S. allegations that Pyongyang had diverted funds to its nuclear effort, Reuters reported. “As of 1 March 2007, UNDP has no choice but to suspend its operations in D.P.R.K.,” the agency said in an online statement.  “UNDP’s position in D.P.R.K. could be reconsidered if these circumstances change.” The agency was unable to meet revised conditions for operations of 20 economic, social, environmental and food management programs in North Korea, Reuters reported.  It denied any subversion of funds (Reuters III/New York Times, March 5). Back to top

U.S. Lawmaker Seeks Hearings on Anthrax Case U.S. Representative Rush Holt (D-N.J.) said congressional hearings are needed on the status of the FBI investigation of the unsolved 2001 anthrax mailings that killed five people, the Trenton Times reported Saturday (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2006). “It seems to me this investigation is not making progress.  I can’t say for sure.  They won’t brief me,” Holt said.  “Not briefing Congress on the status of the probe into the biggest biological attack in United States history is inexcusable.” On Friday, he urged four committee chairmen and a subcommittee head to schedule oversight hearings on the case. Attorney General Albert Gonzales rejected a December request from more than 30 House and Senate lawmakers to have the FBI update Congress on the investigation, the Times reported.  Two earlier briefing requests from Holt were also rejected. The investigation remains a priority, according to FBI spokesman Richard Kolko. Letters contaminated with anthrax were sent from a post office in Hamilton, N.J.  Five Postal Service personnel became sick after exposure to the biological agent.  The facility remained closed for more than three years in the wake of the mailings (Jeff Trently, The Times, March 3). Back to top       Contractor Takes Over U.S. Biodefense Facility A private U.S. firm was scheduled today to begin a five-year management contract for a U.S. biological defense laboratory at Fort Detrick, Md., the Frederick News-Post reported (see GSN, Dec. 21, 2006). The U.S. Homeland Security Department announced the $250 million contract late last year to manage the National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center.  The agency awarded the contract to the Battelle National Biodefense Initiative, a unit of the Battelle research institute headquartered in Ohio. The new $128 million Maryland facility is set to open in a year.  It would contain two centers, one to perform research on biological agents and the other to produce assessments of threats posed by biological agents, the News-Post reported (Alison Walker-Baird, Frederick News-Post, March 4). Back to top       Ricin Could Aid Young Leukemia Patients Researchers say the biological agent ricin could be used to help children with leukemia who must receive a bone marrow transplant in which the donor is not a perfect match, the London Sunday Telegraph reported yesterday (see GSN, April 14, 2005). In cases of last resort, young patients receive “half-matched” transplants from a parent in treatment of the blood or bone marrow cancer.  The success rate for such procedures is one in three. A successful halt-match transplant requires that immune cells be removed from the donated marrow to prevent the potentially lethal condition “graft versus host disease.”  However, the absence of those immune cells greatly reduces the patient’s ability to counter infection or a revival of the disease.  There is a 30 percent survival rate for half-match transplants, compare to as much as 70 percent for full matches. Tests on 16 patients in London and Houston found that a chemical containing ricin could be combined with immune cells from the donor and the patient’s cells.  The ricin kills immune cells that that cause graft versus host disease, leaving other cells that could be used in the transplant. Five of the original 16 patients tested 2 1/2 years ago have survived.  However, most of the deaths have been attributed to the return of leukemia, rather than infection, the Telegraph reported. “The approach improved immune system responses and this is a major step forward.  We still have the problem of relapse so we are trying to refine our approach to put in more immune cells and hopefully get an anti-leukemic effect too,” said Persis Amrolia, a consultant at the Great Ormond Street Hospital in London (Jasper Copping, The Sunday Telegraph, March 4). Back to top

Chemical Agent Traces Found in Washington State Contractors for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have found 18 cylinders containing minute amounts of chemical agents such as mustard, phosgene and lewisite during cleanup of a shuttered military storage site in Washington state, the Everett Herald reported Thursday (see GSN, Feb. 27). “That sounds bad, but it’s not,” said Corps spokeswoman Andrea Takash.  “What were there was very low-level.” A vapor containment tent covered the work site at the Tulalip Indian Reservation, preventing any escape of weapons agent, she said. A 700-acre area of the reservation was used during World War II to store and test ammunition, including chemical weapons.  The military buried surplus weapons and containers after permanently closing the site following the Korean War. Cleanup began in May 2006.  Workers in August found broken glass vials that might have one been filled with liquid mustard agent.  Some workers were taken to a hospital that day after noticing an odd smell, the Herald reported (Krista Kapralos, The Herald, March 1). Back to top

Pakistan Tests Nuclear-Capable Missile The Pakistani military on Saturday conducted a successful test of its Abdali short-range, nuclear-capable missile, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 23). The launch of the surface-to-surface missile with a reported range of 200 kilometers came just a more a week before Pakistan is scheduled to host a round of peace talks with neighbor India. The missile was launched from an unspecified location within Pakistan, according to the military statement. Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, with India first testing a weapon in 1974 and Pakistan following in 1998 (Associated Press/Taipei Times, March 4). Back to top

U.S. Missile Defense System Could be Integrated with NATO, German Defense Minister Says The United States should consider integrating its plans for missile defense installations in Europe with NATO defenses on the continent, German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung said Friday (see GSN, March 2). “I think it would be smart to integrate this whole system into NATO,” he said.  “In the development of such a system, we should try to tie it into the alliance.” Washington is seeking to deploy 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic.  There has also been talk of placing new missile shield sites in the United Kingdom and Caucasus. The alliance found last year in a preliminary study that a missile threat existed and that development of a defense system was technically feasible, the Associated Press reported.  An additional report is expected in June regarding a missile defense system to cover the 26 NATO countries (see GSN, July 7, 2006; Paul Ames, Associated Press/Helena Independent Record, March 2). The head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency said Thursday that NATO approval was not necessary for Washington to move ahead with its European missile defense plans, Reuters reported. “It’s important that we get the understanding and what I would consider to be as much partnering as we can do with our NATO allies,” he said.  “We are not looking for approval per se” (David Brunnstrom, Reuters/Yahoo!News, March 1). If Poland and the Czech Republic agree to house the installations, “we hope to begin major construction in these countries in 2008 and … (begin) missile defense operations by 2012,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State John Rood said on Feb. 27 The missile defense sites in Central Europe would be integrated with missile interceptor bases in Alaska and California and with radar systems in Greenland and the United Kingdom, the State Department said.  The system would be a “purely defensive” measure against missile threats from the Middle East, Rood said in a department release. “We will continue to keep Russia informed about the status of our programs and decisions,” he said (U.S. State Department release, March 2). Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich on Friday expressed interest in talks between his nation, the United States and the European Union over the missile shield plans, United Press International reported. “European security should not be divided in a way that benefits certain countries only,” he said.  “If we’re talking about a global security system, Ukraine can make a contribution” (United Press International I, March 2). A U.S. missile defense supporter last week warned against deploying missile interceptors in the United Kingdom, UPI reported. “A missile defense site in Great Britain or outside of Central Europe would be unable to protect all U.S. interests in Europe from an intermediate or long-range Iranian missile and thus would not be a viable option,” said Riki Ellison, head of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (United Press International II, March 2). Back to top

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