Gholamreza Aghazadeh, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, today reaffirmed Iran’s goal of building 50,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges (Behrouz Mehri/Getty Images). Iranian Nuclear Claims Questioned Nonproliferation experts have questioned the meaning of Iran’s declaration yesterday that it has achieved a major milestone in its uranium enrichment program, with some analysts doubting that any technical leap has been achieved, the Los Angeles Times reported (see GSN, April 9). “With great honor, I declare that as of today our dear country has joined the nuclear club of nations and can produce nuclear fuel on an industrial scale,” Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said yesterday at a ceremony at the nation’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz...Full Story

U.S. Aims for New “Standoff” Radiation Detector By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Homeland Security Department is offering $25 million in grants it hopes will produce mobile radiation detectors able to sniff out nuclear material at distances beyond what is now possible (see GSN, March 26)...Full Story

India to Ramp Up Nuclear Fuel Production India intends to double its nuclear fuel production in anticipation of operating new power plants, the Indo-Asian News Service reported yesterday (see GSN, March 30)...Full Story

	Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Iranian Nuclear Claims Questioned Nonproliferation experts have questioned the meaning of Iran’s declaration yesterday that it has achieved a major milestone in its uranium enrichment program, with some analysts doubting that any technical leap has been achieved, the Los Angeles Times reported (see GSN, April 9). “With great honor, I declare that as of today our dear country has joined the nuclear club of nations and can produce nuclear fuel on an industrial scale,” Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said yesterday at a ceremony at the nation’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. Outside experts, however, doubted that Iran had made a significant breakthrough beyond its well-reported installation of up to 1,000 centrifuges at the site. “To call this an industrial capability is a gross exaggeration,” said Joseph Cirincione, of the Center for American Progress.  “It’s a milestone, but it’s far short for the kind of capability you need to produce either fuel for a reactor or a weapon.” “Most people believe they have not mastered enrichment technology,” agreed Harvard University proliferation expert Matthew Bunn.  “Nothing we heard today changes that” (Mostaghim/Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, April 10). Iranian officials have offered vague accounts of how many centrifuges are now operating. Atomic Energy Organization head Gholamreza Aghazadeh yesterday refused to confirm that Iran had achieved its target of installing 3,000 centrifuges by May, but top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said that goal had been reached, the Financial Times reported (Financial Times I, April 9). Today, however, Aghazadeh criticized the western media for reporting that 3,000 centrifuges have been installed at Natanz, but reaffirmed Iran’s long-range goal for a large centrifuge program, the Financial Times reported. “When we say we have entered industrial-scale enrichment, (it means) there is no way back,” he told Iran’s state-run news agency.  “Installation of centrifuges will continue steadily to reach a stage where all 50,000 centrifuges are launched.” The question will probably be resolved in the next report from the International Atomic Energy Agency, due by mid-May.  Two agency inspectors arrived today in Iran for a previously scheduled visit, according to the Financial Times (Gareth Smyth, Financial Times II, April 10). If not technically accurate, then Iran’s announcement could be intended to strengthen the nation’s negotiating position with European powers over a long-term solution the nuclear crisis, or it could be designed as a face-saving effort for domestic political purposes, according to some nonproliferation experts. “It’s very clever,” said George Perkovich, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  “They’re keeping their options open.  They’re saying, ‘We’ve defied everyone.  We’ve done it.’  They’re declaring victory. … That way they can suspend later and come into compliance. Or they can blast forward” (Mostaghim/Daragahi, Los Angeles Times). “Now they can claim (success) and you could turn it into an argument that says:  ‘Fine, congratulations, you did what you set out to do, now you can take a break,’” he added. “The purpose today was to publicly state that they had the centrifuges,” said David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security.  “It would be a big surprise though if they did start to enrich,” he added, saying that such a move would “seriously reduce their chances of having any meaningful negotiations with the Europeans” (David Millikin, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 10). Back to top       U.S. Aims for New “Standoff” Radiation Detector By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Homeland Security Department is offering $25 million in grants it hopes will produce mobile radiation detectors able to sniff out nuclear material at distances beyond what is now possible (see GSN, March 26). The department has asked all comers — universities, national laboratories and private industry — to leap a technological stumbling block, leading to a “dramatic improvement in national capabilities,” according to a description of the grant program. The effort is being spearheaded by the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office.  Homeland Security launched the division two years ago to improve and coordinate the nation’s post-Sept. 11 efforts to catch at borders and ports nuclear material that might be used in an atomic device or radiological “dirty bomb.” The detection office expects to award two or more grants later this month for development of a new breed of detectors and expects a prototype to be delivered within two years, according DNDO spokeswoman Jenny Burke and an outline of the program posted on a government Web site. It is all part of a bid to address a number of gaps in the nation’s defense against smuggled nuclear materials — what DHS officials like to call a “global nuclear detection architecture.”  Holes in that defense include inadequate radiation monitoring along unattended borders, mobile radiation detection systems, and monitoring of cargo and transports while they are still in transit. “Standoff” radiation detectors, or systems that can identify radioactive materials from a distance, could “address multiple challenge areas within the global nuclear detection architecture,” the department writes in its solicitation for prototypes. Work on several technologies has shown that small amounts of radioactive material can be detected traveling at speeds up to 20 mph from a distance of more than 65 meters, DNDO chief Vayl Oxford told Congress during testimony last month.  Such a demonstrated capacity represents “a tremendous improvement over previous and current capabilities,” he said. While the research program makes no reference to a minimum detection distance required of the planned technology, Oxford told lawmakers he hopes to increase detection ranges to 100 meters. The standoff systems developed under the program are expected to be incorporated into deployment scenarios to protect large areas and could perhaps create a network of detection to protect what are currently sparsely guarded borders. The department’s vision for this type of detector is a unit that could be manufactured in the hundreds to form “an essential part” of the defense network.  It would be used on land, air or sea, ideally fit into the back of a large sport utility vehicle and cost somewhere shy of $300,000 a unit. The Homeland Security Department is currently testing a next-generation fixed nuclear detector that could scan cargo containers and identify not only the presence of radiation but also the nature of its source.  Congress, however, has questioned the efficacy and cost of the new technology (see GSN, March 15). The next-generation portal monitors, as well as the push for mobile detector prototypes, are part of an aggressive move by the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office to advance the science of nuclear detection.  The detectors undergoing testing, however, remain unable to detect highly enriched uranium concealed behind a layer of shielding such as lead. Late last month, the detection office awarded 10 contracts totaling $8.8 million to nine companies for advanced nuclear detection research as part of its Exploratory Research Program.  Earlier in the year, the office awarded seven universities grants totaling $3.1 million to advance nuclear detection research.  Back to top       India to Ramp Up Nuclear Fuel Production India intends to double its nuclear fuel production in anticipation of operating new power plants, the Indo-Asian News Service reported yesterday (see GSN, March 30). “The plan is to step up power production by next year,” said nuclear power official S.K. Jain. India has extensive nuclear power growth plans, but would manage that growth based on its fuel supply, Jain said. “We do not want to begin setting up all the reactors at the same time.  Our uranium production will double next year and we want to link the reactors to uranium availability,” he said (Indo-Asian News Service/Yahoo!News, April 9). Back to top       Clock Ticking on Nuclear Deal, North Korea Told There is a limited amount of time left for North Korea to begin meeting its obligations under the February denuclearization deal reached at the six-party talks, a U.S. official said today in Pyongyang (see GSN, April 9). Lead White House adviser on North Korea Victor Cha passed the message on to top North Korean nuclear negotiator Kim Kye Gwan during a meeting, a U.S. official said.  Kim did not say whether Pyongyang would meet the 60-day deadline Saturday to shut down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor or allow international inspectors back into the country.  North Korea has demanded the return of $25 million in frozen funds before making any moves. All nations in the six-party talks are “working in good faith to meet” the deadline, said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.  He did not say what might happen if the date passes without action. The money matter “was more complicated than anyone could have imagined,” McCormack said, indicating the White House might accept a deadline extension. North Korea would receive 50,000 tons of fuel oil and equivalent aid for taking the initial disarmament steps.  It would receive another 950,000 tons upon full denuclearization (Foster Klug, Associated Press/Washington Post, April 10). Authorities in Macau are expected to soon release the funds held by Banco Delta Asia, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a release today. “Now we need to move on from this banking issue to the real purpose of our February agreement, which is to get on with denuclearization,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said in Seoul. The Macau Monetary Authority, however, only “noted” the Treasury Department announcement and indicated that the matter was not yet resolved.  Authorities from China, Macau, North Korea and the United States have spent weeks negotiating over the release of the funds, which Washington had linked to illicit North Korean financial activities, the Washington Post reported. “The Monetary Authority of Macau will continue to coordinate all parties concerned in Macau to properly deal with this issue within the parameters of existing legislation,” the agency said in a statement.  “Simultaneously, it expects all parties concerned to come up with appropriate and responsible arrangements, respectively” (Edward Cody, Washington Post, April 10). Officials from countries involved in the six-nation negotiations today again acknowledged the difficulty in meeting the deadline, Agence France-Presse reported. “We are getting into a situation where it’s extremely difficult to do it within the 60 days as agreed,” said Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso (Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 10). The Japanese Cabinet today approved extending by six months the sanctions placed on North Korea following its October nuclear test, AP reported.  Japanese ports will remain closed to North Korean ships and the ban on imports maintained (Klug, AP, April 10). Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met today in Seoul with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, for talks on the nuclear standoff and other issues, Kyodo News reported. “The two sides agreed to further strengthen the two countries’ cooperation to continue to achieve progress in the process of the six-party talks,’ according to a statement from Roh’s office (Kyodo News/Yahoo!News, April 10). Back to top       Russian Strategic Submarine to be Launched Russia’s first post-Soviet strategic nuclear submarine is scheduled to be launched Sunday, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Feb. 8). The Yuri Dolgoruki is set to enter the White Sea from the Severodvinsk naval base. “This is the first time in 17 years that we are building such a submarine,” said Foreign Minister Sergei Ivanov.  “Another year will be needed to technically equip it in water and to arm it.” The submarine would be armed with new Bulava-M ICBMs, which can carry 10 nuclear warheads with a range of 4,970 miles, AFP reported. Three more submarines of this type are planned.  Construction is under way on the Alexander Nevski and the Vladimir Monomakh (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, April 9). Back to top       U.S. Purchases New Trident Missiles Lockheed Martin has received a $135 million contract to continue its program to provide upgraded strategic missiles for U.S. Trident submarines, the company announced yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 14, 2005). The deal adds to the $655 million contract awarded earlier this year for missile production. The Navy has ordered up to 108 Trident 2 D5 missiles, scheduled to be completely delivered by 2017, as part of an effort to extend the life of the missile submarines to 2042, according to Lockheed Martin (Lockheed Martin release, April 9). Back to top       Disarmament Situation “Unacceptable,” U.N. Head Says The continuing obstacles to global disarmament are “unacceptable,” U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said yesterday (see GSN, March 16). “Unfortunately, we seem to be in a rut where setbacks in the field of disarmament have become the norm, not an exception,” he said at the opening of the three-week session of the U.N. Disarmament Commission in New York.  “This situation is unacceptable.” “The threat of weapons of mass destruction, and the daily suffering inflicted by small arms and light weapons, antipersonnel mines, and cluster munitions have to give us pause,” Ban added, according to the Associated Press.  “They should prompt a re-examination of the foundations of our international security regime.” The lack of progress on disarmament and nonproliferation at the 2005 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference (see GSN, May 31, 2005) is one example of the “disheartening trend” in this sector, Ban said. He expressed home that the new U.N. Disarmament Affairs Office would provide impetus for movement on disarmament and nonproliferation, AP reported.  There is as yet no undersecretary general leading the office. The first preparatory session for the 2010 NPT review conference is to be held next month in Vienna. Indonesian Ambassador Adiyatwidi Adiwoso Asmady, speaking for the 118 Nonaligned Movement nations, addressed “the slow pace of progress, as well as reversal in certain instances towards nuclear disarmament.”  She recommended a “phased program” that would set a schedule for the total elimination of atomic weapons (Lily Hindy, Associated Press/NASDAQ.com, April 10). Back to top

Global Missile Tests Increasing, U.S. Says The number of global ballistic missile flight tests is growing, leading to U.S. concerns about China and Iran in particular, Aviation Week and Space Technology reported this week (see GSN, March 6). The number of nations with ballistic missile forces has climbed to more than 20 and they are testing those missiles more than ever, according to Gen. Patrick O’Reilly, deputy director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.  Not counting U.S. tests, more than 100 missile flight tests are conducted annually, a 10 percent increase each year, he said. China and Iran have the most active programs, and all their tests are monitored by U.S. space-based sensors known as Defense Support Program satellites. “The Chinese and Iranians (each) have very vigorous test programs and the number of (ballistic missile launch) events we are seeing with DSP are increasing,” said DSP program consultant Edward Tagliaferri.  “And it's not just new missiles, but also new tactics and all kinds of new capabilities.” “China's missile testing is surpassing anything since the Soviet Union's missile buildup of the 1960s,” concurred John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org.  “It's as if China was in near wartime production of missiles … in what amounts to the largest missile production and test rate since the Cold War.” China has been flight testing missiles as frequently as once per week, he said. The United States has been launching upgraded versions of its DSP satellites since 1989 (see GSN, May 26, 2005), and it ultimately plans to replace those with a new system called Space-Based Infrared System, Aviation Week reported (see GSN, Sept 22, 2006). The new DSP satellites are capable not only of detecting the fiery plumes of rocket launches but also the afterburner exhaust of jet aircraft, according to Aviation Week.  In addition, the satellites carry a special sensor that can detect small space-based nuclear explosions (Craig Covault, Aviation Week and Space Technology, April 8). Back to top

South Korea to Boost Missile Defenses South Korea plans to deploy high-altitude missile interceptors by 2011, the Yonhap News Agency reported today (see GSN, Oct. 2, 2006). Medium-range ground-to-air missiles would be converted into interceptors for use against North Korean ballistic missiles, a source said. “The military will also develop an advanced early warning radar for precise interception,” he said. By 2015, Seoul wants to possess sophisticated electromagnetic pulse or powerful microwave weaponry capable of eliminating an enemy digital command system while causing no harms to humans (Yonhap News Agency, April 10). Back to top       PAC-3 Software Upgrades Delayed Software intended to boost the accuracy of U.S. Patriot Advanced Capability 3 air-defense missiles might not be installed until 2009, Inside the Army reported yesterday (see GSN, May 18, 2004). Army Space and Missile Defense Command chief Lt. Gen. Larry Dodgen said last year he expected installation to occur by late fiscal 2007, which ends in September. The software is among nine responses to three friendly fire incidents involving the PAC-3 system during the war in Iraq.  All fixes are now expected to be made by the end of fiscal 2009. Two British airmen were killed in March 2003 when their Tornado fighter jet was hit by a Patriot missile.  An F-16 pilot fired on a Patriot radar three days later after it locked on to his jet, Inside the Army reported.  A Patriot battery in April 2003 brought down a Navy F/A-18 Hornet. The system’s “combat identification capability … performed very poorly,” the Defense Science Board said in a January 2005 report.  “This is not exactly a surprise; the poor performance has been seen in many training exercises.” “The task force remains puzzled as to why this deficiency never garners enough resolve and support to result in a robust fix,” the report said (Marina Malenic, Inside the Army, April 9).   Back to top

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