New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson said today that North Korea is ready to quickly begin closing its Yongbyon nuclear reactor after it receives $25 million in funds that had been frozen in Macau (Jung Yeon-Je/Getty Images). North Korea Said Ready to Quickly Begin Closing Nuclear Reactor North Korea would only need a day to begin closing down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor after receiving funds it has linked directly to its willingness to pursue disarmament, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson said today after a visit to Pyongyang (see GSN, April 10). Officials from the United States and Macau yesterday agreed to free $25 million in funds that had been frozen at Banco Delta Asia, Agence France-Presse reported. “The North Korean government told us that with that issue resolved, (it) would move promptly, within a day after receiving the funds,” Richardson said in Seoul, after his delegation spent several days in North Korea.  “And therefore within that day (it would) invite the [International Atomic Energy Agency] inspectorate to Pyongyang to draft the terms for shutting down the Yongbyon reactor.”..Full Story

FBI Analyzes Chlorine Gas Attacks in Iraq By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The FBI and U.S. intelligence agencies are analyzing the trend of chlorine gas attacks in Iraq in hopes of preventing similar tactics in the United States, a Homeland Security Department official said yesterday (see GSN, April 6)...Full Story

Iran’s Claim to Worsen Nuclear Crisis, Experts Say Iranian claims about the nation’s uranium enrichment capability could reduce chances for finding a solution that would ease international concerns over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, April 10)...Full Story

	Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Future Brings Added Weapons Dangers, U.K. Says A British Defense Ministry report says the world 30 years from now is likely to have a greater number of nuclear-armed nations and increasing technologies to deliver weapons of mass destruction, the London Guardian reported Monday (see GSN, Jan. 14, 2005). The 90-page report is intended to illustrate the “future strategic context” for the British military.  It contains an “analysis of the key risks and shocks” and is “probability-based, rather than predictive,” said Rear Adm. Chris Parry, head of the office that developed the document. The findings are given levels of probability:  a development that “will” occur has a greater than 95 percent chance of coming to pass; changes that are “likely” or probable to occur have a greater than 60 percent chance; something with a greater than 10 percent likelihood “may” happen; and anything lower than 10 percent is “unlikely” to come about. The report addresses a wide range of topics, including terrorism, climate change, population growth and technology. Among the possible threats by 2036: — “Accelerating nuclear proliferation will create a more complex and dangerous strategic environment, with the likely clustering of nuclear-armed states in regions that have significant potential for instability or have fears about foreign intervention.  For example, North Korean, Pakistani and potentially Iranian nuclear weapon capability will increase significantly the risks of conflict in Asia if a system of mutual deterrence does not emerge.  In addition, nuclear possession may lead to greater adventurism and irresponsible conventional and irregular behavior, to the point of brinksmanship and misunderstanding.  Finally, there is a possibility that neutron technologies may re-emerge as potential and warfighting options”; — “The variety of potential CBRN delivery systems will increase, to include delivery by advanced cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.  These may become available to well-resourced and terrorist groups and could be deployed from improvised land or sea platforms”; — “Future technological development and a highly competitive arms market are likely to result in weapons that are more cheap, portable, destructive, widely available and easier to use” (Richard Norton-Taylor, London Guardian, April 9). Back to top       Bolton Warns of WMD Threat From Terrorists Following the nuclear threats of Iran and North Korea, the prospect of terrorists acquiring weapons of mass destruction poses the most serious danger to U.S. security, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said yesterday. “Today, we have the comparative luxury that there is no military power in the world — no combination of powers — that constitutes a real threat to the U.S.,” Bolton said in a speech at Miami University in Ohio. “But we do face in the form of these weapons of mass destruction a kind of terrorist instrument that while it possesses no military risk it can be used to hold hostage innocent civilian populations in the U.S. and our friends [and] allies around the world,” he said. “Our future security and the security of our friends and allies, and indeed the entire civilized world depend on preventing the further proliferation of these weapons of mass destruction,” he added (Denise Wilson, Hamilton, Ohio, Journal-News, April 11). Back to top       University of Missouri to Produce WMD Detectors The U.S. Defense Department will pay the University of Missouri nanotechnology center $10 million to produce sensors capable of detecting biological and chemical agents, The Kansas City Star reported yesterday. The five-year collaboration between the university’s College of Engineering and the Picatinny Arsenal in New Jersey is also aimed at developing energy-producing devices. Electrical and computer engineering professor Shubhra Gangopadhyay, who is leading the project, said health and medical benefits could also arise from her microchip-based and nanotechnology devices. “Some breakthrough technologies will result from this unique partnership, and they will have implications far beyond use by the Department of Defense” (The Kansas City Star, April 10). Back to top

North Korea Said Ready to Quickly Begin Closing Nuclear Reactor North Korea would only need a day to begin closing down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor after receiving funds it has linked directly to its willingness to pursue disarmament, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson said today after a visit to Pyongyang (see GSN, April 10). Officials from the United States and Macau yesterday agreed to free $25 million in funds that had been frozen at Banco Delta Asia, Agence France-Presse reported. “The North Korean government told us that with that issue resolved, (it) would move promptly, within a day after receiving the funds,” Richardson said in Seoul, after his delegation spent several days in North Korea.  “And therefore within that day (it would) invite the [International Atomic Energy Agency] inspectorate to Pyongyang to draft the terms for shutting down the Yongbyon reactor.” North Korea in February agreed to make those moves by Saturday in exchange for 50,000 tons of fuel oil and related aid from other nations participating in the six-party talks.  Additional assistance would be supplied once Pyongyang follows through on nuclear disarmament. Progress on implementing the February agreement has been stalled while Pyongyang waited for its money.  Officials there proposed pushing back the deadline by a month due to the delay, Richardson said. “We let them know that this was not acceptable and the issue was dropped,” he said.  No more than a few days would be needed to close the reactor, Richardson added. Banco Delta Asia must now inform North Korea that it can reclaim the money, which the bank froze after it was linked by Washington to counterfeiting and other illicit North Korean activities.  “That should happen late this afternoon, or tomorrow morning,” Richardson said. “So the BDA issue is resolved.  We need to move forward,” he said. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, lead negotiator with North Korea, concurred:  “The D.P.R.K. has access to their accounts now.  We think it is a really important time to get on with the ever urgent task of denuclearization” (Lim Chang-Won, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 11). An IAEA team is ready to travel to North Korea for talks on inspection procedures and the ultimate denuclearization schedule, the Yonhap News Agency reported (Yonhap News Agency, April 11). The frozen funds resulted from a U.S. effort to crack down on suspected North Korean counterfeiting of $100 bills.  The Treasury Department in 2005 said it was ready to move against Banco Delta Asia, which it believed was helping move the currency on to the international system, the Washington Post reported today. The September 2005 announcement that Banco Delta Asia had been linked to money laundering almost killed the bank and led institutions internationally to cut ties with Pyongyang. The move came just as negotiators in the six-party talks announced that North Korea had agreed in principle to nuclear disarmament.  Afterward, officials in the Stalinist state refused to participate in talks for more than a year, angered over what Washington said was a criminal matter that should not be tied to the nuclear negotiations.  Negotiations began again late last year. The Bush administration finally this year had to agree to close the investigation and return the money — half of which it strongly connects to criminal activity — in order to move forward with the nuclear deal.  Transferring the money also proved unexpectedly difficult, with Chinese banks unwilling to accept it and North Korean officials resistant to the plan to put the funds toward humanitarian purposes.  Some of the funds would go back to third parties rather than the government in Pyongyang, the Post reported.  That raises questions in Washington on whether the release of the funds will actually satisfy North Korea. “The United States started on this path not understanding what the impact would be,” said Henry L. Stimson Center senior associate Alan Romberg.  “This should be an object lesson:  Be careful what you do, and play through how you would undo it” (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, April 11). Back to top       Iran’s Claim to Worsen Nuclear Crisis, Experts Say Iranian claims about the nation’s uranium enrichment capability could reduce chances for finding a solution that would ease international concerns over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, April 10). Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this week declared that Iran’s efforts to enrich its own uranium had achieved an “industrial” scale, although the precise meaning of the assertion remains undefined. Some nonproliferation experts were reported yesterday as saying that Ahmadinejad’s announcement could prove to be a face-saving measure by permitting Iran to claim to have mastered nuclear technology.  Iran’s new-found status could make it easier to suspend its enrichment activities to allow international talks to continue. Other experts, however, have suggested that Iran’s declaration would make it more difficult for Tehran to step away from its nuclear activities as part of long-term resolution to the crisis. “I am concerned that exaggerated statements of Iran's progress will make it more difficult for pragmatists in the Iranian leadership to promote a compromise solution,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation. “They're rushing to establish facts on the ground that make it much [more] difficult for anyone to walk back the program,” added Joseph Cirincione of the Center for American Progress (Mostaghim/Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, April 11). Iran’s refusal to heed U.N. Security Council demands to freeze its nuclear activities will probably lead to more economic sanctions, acting U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Alejandro Wolff said yesterday. “I suspect that if this approach continues, we will be back here escalating measures again,” Wolff said. Ahmadinejad’s announcement “makes clear that Iran continues to disregard its obligations, to ignore the will of the council and therefore the international community,” Wolff added.  “I don't recall one speech the president of Iran has ever made that has made things easier” (Evelyn Leopold, Reuters/Washington Post, April 10). Wolff’s predecessor John Bolton, now a private analyst, said efforts to negotiate with Iran have proven useless and that only a change of leadership would steer Tehran away from nuclear weapon ambitions. “The effort to negotiate Iran out of its nuclear weapons program has failed and is failing now and needs to be changed dramatically,” Bolton said in a BBC interview broadcast yesterday.  “What we need to do is decisively increase the pressure economically and politically on Iran, ultimately leading to regime change.” “The fact is we have followed a path of negotiation for 3 1/2 years.  That simply has played into Iran's hands and given them the time to overcome difficulties in the uranium conversion process and now the uranium enrichment process,” he said. Bolton urged European leaders to take a harder line with Iran. “What will it take for Europe to come to the conclusion that Iran is determined to ignore the Security Council, ignore the [International Atomic Energy Agency], ignore the buckets of carrots that Europe has offered up and take a strong stand against this threat of an emergent nuclear power in the Middle East?” Bolton said (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, April 10). Bushehr Dispute Meanwhile, an Iranian-Russian financial dispute continues to linger over a Russian-built nuclear power reactor in Iran that is nearing completion, ITAR-Tass reported yesterday (see GSN, April 3). A group of Russian contractors is visiting Iran this week to try to resolve the dispute that has halted progress at the Bushehr site and delayed the delivery date of the first nuclear fuel for the reactor. Iranian officials said an agreement was near and the reactor would be commissioned by March 2008. “The discussion of financial aspects (of the Bushehr project) is almost over,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. “Despite the recent delays, Iran will apparently join the nations that own nuclear power plant this year,” added Mohammad Saeedi, deputy head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization.  Iran’s calendar year ends March 20, 2008. “Only 8 percent of works are still to be done in Bushehr, and they will be completed this year,” he added (ITAR-Tass, April 10). Back to top       Study Urges U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue Uncertainty over China’s nuclear and other military capabilities should push the United States to seek “a high-level military strategic dialogue” with Beijing that could include talks on limiting nuclear weapons, according to a report issued yesterday by the Council on Foreign Relations. China is actively modernizing its military forces, the report finds, as illustrated by a successful antisatellite test earlier this year (see GSN, March 12). “The test is a vivid example of how China’s emerging military capabilities will complicate the strategic environment confronting U.S. forces for decades to come,” says the report.  The study, U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, a Responsible Course, was produced by a task force led by former U.S. Trade Representative Carla Hills and Dennis Blair, former head of the Institute for Defense Analyses. Other modernization programs of concern include China’s ballistic missile deployments on the Taiwan Strait, now numbering about 800 missiles and growing by 100 missiles per year, the report says (see GSN, Jan. 23).  The report also expresses concern over Chinese plans to upgrade its strategic nuclear missiles (see GSN, Oct. 20, 2005). Despite these concerns, the report emphasizes that U.S. superiority will not be threatened by China’s military modernization. “The task force finds no evidence to support the notion that China will become a peer military competitor of the United States,” the report says.  “The military ‘balance’ today and for the foreseeable future strongly favors the United States and its allies.” Still, more information about China’s capabilities and intentions could help reduce U.S. concerns.  The report recommends a high-level dialogue to discuss a range of strategic issues, including nuclear weapon deployments doctrines, missile deployments and missile defenses. The dialogue could also include initial talks about limits to those programs. “The talks should have a strategic quality, with a strong focus on strategic systems — nuclear arms and missile defenses.  The dialogue should include discussion of what restraints the two sides are prepared to offer each other in the development of their strategic posture” (Council on Foreign Relations report, April 10). Back to top       Worker Triggers Radiation Alarm at Los Alamos A communication problem last month at the Los Alamos National Laboratory enabled a radioactively contaminated worker to leave the site before he was cleared to do so, the Albuquerque Journal reported yesterday.  The incident spurred a watchdog group to complain that safety and security improvements remain lacking at the nuclear weapons research facility (see GSN, March 9). The March 7 incident began when a worker leaving for home triggered a radiation alarm at the New Mexico laboratory’s Neutron Science Center.  The radiological control technician who responded to assess the situation was needed elsewhere, however, and called for another technician to assist with the worker, according to laboratory spokesman Kevin Roark. The worker did not realize that he was supposed to wait for the second technician, and he left site after decontaminating himself, Roark said.   The next day, radiation was detected on the worker’s wrist, and a team was dispatched to test his home and vehicle, where no contamination was found, according to report filed by the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board. The incident was “a symptom of systemic problems that just don’t go away,” said Jay Coghlan, of Nuclear Watch New Mexico.  He said new management was hired last year to address a series of safety and security lapses, but improvements have been lacking (see GSN, Nov. 29, 2006). “Somehow, there was this hope that new management would ride to the rescue,” Coghlan said.  “The names on the contract changed, but I don’t think anything else has changed” (John Arnold, Albuquerque Journal, April 10). Back to top

Canada Tenders Offer for New Smallpox Vaccine Canada has asked vaccine makers for proposals to supply a new type of smallpox vaccine for 10,000 people, with an option to a second batch for 10,000 more, Danish pharmaceutical firm Bavarian Nordic announced yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 14, 2005). The modified vaccinia Ankara-based vaccine is designed to reduce complications caused by the existing smallpox vaccine, according to Bavarian Nordic (see GSN, April 9). The Canadian decision to pursue a new vaccine indicates that the MVA-based vaccine is gaining acceptance, said a company release (Bavarian Nordic release, April 10). Back to top

FBI Analyzes Chlorine Gas Attacks in Iraq By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The FBI and U.S. intelligence agencies are analyzing the trend of chlorine gas attacks in Iraq in hopes of preventing similar tactics in the United States, a Homeland Security Department official said yesterday (see GSN, April 6). “We are truly analyzing the living daylights out of these attacks,” Assistant Homeland Security Secretary Robert Stephen said during a meeting of the National Infrastructure Advisory Council here. The Homeland Security Department and the Defense Department are also involved in studying the attacks that Stephen said have been increasing in sophistication since they began in November. “In the first attacks, there were no demonstrable effects of the chlorine gas,” he said. Victims in the attacks were initially injured or killed by explosives rather than the gas.  Since January, however, the composition of the bombs — the way they are assembled — has begun to change.  Along with casualties caused by the explosions, gas spread by the bombs sickened and sent scores to the hospital, Stephen said. “There’s an increasing sophistication as we see these folks experiment,” he said.  “This is something that is troubling to us” Analysts are studying how insurgents have altered their techniques to achieve more effective release of the chlorine, which has come from chemical depots and industrial sites in Iraq, Stephen said. He said one of the goals is educating local U.S. law enforcement about the hallmarks of the improvised bombs to better protect against such a tactic being used domestically. Back to top       U.S. Army to Ship Chemical Waste to Texas The U.S. Army plans to ship wastewater produced by chemical weapons disposal in Indiana to Texas for incineration, Chemical & Engineering News reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 2). Critics of transporting the waste said are already preparing a legal challenge to the plan. Veolia Environmental Services of Port Arthur is due to receive $49 million to destroy hundreds of thousands of gallons of hydrolysate created during chemical neutralization of VX nerve agent at the Newport Chemical Depot. The Army is halfway through the elimination process of 1,269 tons of VX, which has produced nearly 720,000 gallons of caustic wastewater now being stored at the depot. Efforts to have the waste treated at plants in Ohio and New Jersey have been scrapped in the face of public and political opposition. “This is the Army’s last chance,” a source said.  If it cannot move the waste to Texas, the Army “will have to design, build, permit, test and operate an on-site secondary treatment facility.”  There are no funds designated in coming years for such a plant, the development of which “could extend by three to five years the destruction of VX nerve agent at Newport,” the source said. The Army Chemical Materials Agency hopes to begin waste shipments as soon as April 20.  Two-to-six-truck convoys would pass through Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, C&EN reported. The U.S. interpretation of the Chemical Weapons Convention says that it cannot receive credit for elimination of chemical weapons until any resultant waste is also treated.  Incinerating at least some of the hydrolysate would help the Army meet its treaty obligation to eliminate 45 percent of its total stockpile by the end of this year. However, “the Army is not going to be able to ship all of the stored hydrolysate to Texas before a lawsuit or injunction stops the transport,” a source said. The Chemical Weapons Working Group and other environmental organizations plan “to notify the Army and Veolia of their intent to sue,” said CWWG head Craig Williams.  The federal lawsuit would be based on “the Army’s inadequate environmental review process” and would seek an injunction against waste transport, he said (Lois Ember, Chemical & Engineering News, April 10). Back to top

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