EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana (left) and Iranian negotiator Ali Larijani greet each other before starting nuclear talks today in Turkey (Getty Images). EU, Iran Start Nuclear Meeting EU and Iranian diplomats began meeting today in Turkey to search for ways to resume formal negotiations to resolve the crisis surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 24)...Full Story

Experts Offer Limited Support for New U.S. Warhead By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A panel of nuclear weapons experts has called the Bush administration’s push to develop a new warhead a “prudent hedge” against future stockpile-related uncertainties, but the group also concluded that the initiative is difficult to fully assess in the absence of a clear White House-defined nuclear weapons policy (see GSN, April 23)...Full Story

U.S. Alters Nuclear Deal, Indian Officials Say Indian officials believe the United States is trying to backtrack on commitments it made when agreeing to a bilateral nuclear trade deal in 2005, The Hindu reported today (see GSN, April 20)...Full Story

	Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Chinese Firms Deny Sales to Iran, Syria Two Chinese firms facing new U.S. sanctions yesterday denied selling missile or WMD-related technology to Iran or Syria, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 24). China National Precision Machinery Import/Export Co. and Zibo Chemet Equipment Co. were among 14 entities charged with violating the U.S. Iran and Syria Nonproliferation Act.  All those on the renewable sanctions list cannot receive aid, government contracts or export licenses from the United States for two years. “We don’t have any military dealings with either Iran or Syria,” said Wang Qing, secretary of manager at China National.  “We have been on their list for a long time.  The old sanctions are not over yet.  (The sanctions) have hurt our business.” “We used to have a little business with Iran and Syria, but no more now,” said an international trading department official at Zibo Chemet (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 24). Back to top       Lithuania Hosts PSI Exercise Lithuania plans to host a two-day, WMD-response exercise beginning tomorrow as part of the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative, the Baltic News Service reported (see GSN, Feb. 9, 2004). Plans call for participants from more than 20 nations to practice methods interdicting WMD-related cargo being shipped by air.  The exercise would include communications activity, aircraft searches and efforts to identify suspicious materials, according to the news service (Baltic News Service, April 24). Back to top

EU, Iran Start Nuclear Meeting EU and Iranian diplomats began meeting today in Turkey to search for ways to resume formal negotiations to resolve the crisis surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 24). “This time we will be able to move on in preparatory talks that may lead the sooner the better to meaningful negotiations,” said EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana after arriving in Ankara (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 25). Iranian negotiator Ali Larijani told reporters before the meeting that he expected to hear new proposals from Solana, considering that Iran has steadfastly refused to accede to calls to freeze its uranium enrichment program. That demand is “irrational,” Larijani said.  “That's why there are other new ideas.  We are supposed to be introduced (to them). That's why we are here” (Mark Heinrich, Reuters, April 25). However, Solana spokeswoman Cristina Gallach denied that the EU official would make any new offers. There were “no changes in the position of the international community,” she said (Adler, Agence France-Presse). Back to top       Experts Offer Limited Support for New U.S. Warhead By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A panel of nuclear weapons experts has called the Bush administration’s push to develop a new warhead a “prudent hedge” against future stockpile-related uncertainties, but the group also concluded that the initiative is difficult to fully assess in the absence of a clear White House-defined nuclear weapons policy (see GSN, April 23). In attempting to determine the benefits of the administration’s twin plans for a new, invigorated nuclear weapons complex and the first new warhead in nearly two decades, the authors of the report from the American Association for the Advancement of Science struggled with a lack of details. The experts note that there have been no presidential or Cabinet-level statements describing the role of nuclear weapons in the “post-Cold War, post 9/11 world that make the case for and define future stockpile needs.” Most of the benefits of the complex overhaul and the new warhead, dubbed the Reliable Replacement Warhead, would occur in the long term.  “In the absence of detailed plans on scope, schedule and costs, however, it is not possible to make judgments” about the positive effects of replacing some or all of the stockpile with new weapon designs. The Bush administration has offered no description of the size or composition of a future nuclear stockpile.  Nor is there a cost schedule or description of the scope of transformation of the nuclear complex 20 to 25 years in the future.   “These things don’t exist,” said Bruce Tarter a former director of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and chairman of the committee that produced the report. “There are risks in either long-term outcome — a stockpile that would be composed of all or mostly RRWs, or one that would be composed of mostly legacy warheads — and it is difficult today to weigh the pros and cons,” the report states. It would be difficult to individually transform the network of production facilities and laboratories that maintain the nation’s nuclear stockpile, produce new warheads or update the current stockpile of aging weapons, Tarter said.  The current plans call for doing all three at once. “If you’re going to do a really big job, then you ought to have a national policy debate,” Tarter said yesterday during a discussion of the report. The current plans include replacing a number of the W-76 warheads on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the backbone of the U.S. arsenal, with a new warhead that Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California was tapped to design in March. Administration officials say the replacement warhead would include new safety features, be easier to maintain and less likely to fail than Cold War-era weapons that were designed to get the most bang for the buck.  Existing weapons are changed slightly every time they undergo maintenance, and their reliability could be compromised over time, officials say. Accumulation of such minute changes could eventually necessitate a return to underground testing to confirm the viability of the stockpile, administration officials have said.  The Reliable Replacement Warhead would alleviate this concern and could most likely enter the stockpile without testing, they say (see GSN, March 30). Energy Department officials say the new design, which could be followed by new warheads for silo-based missiles or gravity bombs, should also provide the catalyst for the transformation of the production infrastructure, a plan tagged Complex 2030. Both the RRW and Complex 2030 projects have stirred concerns in Congress, but Tarter noted there have been no statements from the White House illustrating the need for either. Clear support has come from both Gen. James Cartwright, head of U.S. Strategic Command, and Energy Department officials, “but there is no current Cabinet-level or higher articulation of a policy framework to fit this program into,” he said.  Debating such policy is not something one wants “to do every year or every five years but with this kind of change we believe you want to do it,” Tarter said. If the Complex 2030 plan is going to survive its more than 20 year scope, the White House must drum up strong bipartisan support, the authors wrote.  “Based on experience, there cannot be a major transformation of the sort envisioned by the Complex 2030 and RRW programs without greater White House leadership,” the report concludes. As much as White House support is necessary, it is also an awkward time for such a move, Tarter said, noting that the Bush administration’s final days are quickly approaching.  Senator Pete Domenici (R-N.M.), a strong supporter of the plans, recently sent a letter to the White House requesting a statement on the RRW and Complex 2030 proposals, according to Tarter Despite certain concerns, the report still concludes that taking the initial steps down the path toward the Reliable Replacement Warhead “could be a prudent hedge against the uncertainties of an all-legacy future and an opportunity that might result in the creation of a better long-term posture.”  It would also present “considerable challenges” for the production complex particularly in producing an accelerated rate of plutonium pit manufacturing. Due to the substantial time it would take to fully carry out the plans, the report concludes that a successful approach would balance weapons program goals and international nonproliferation and arms control concerns.  “It could be an arms control benefit.  It could be an arms control provocation.  In the absence of a policy it’s hard to tell which would be the case,” Tarter said of the program.  The report suggests the United States conduct a comprehensive study of probable impacts and “make a systematic effort to ensure that foreign perceptions are consistent with U.S. intent.” The National Nuclear Security Administration, a semiautonomous division within the Energy Department that is shepherding the RRW program, praised the AAAS report yesterday. “The AAS study provides a valuable contribution to the discussion on RRW,” acting NNSA head Thomas D’Agostino said in a statement.  “Several … recommendations reaffirm our ongoing plans to study the RRW concept and move forward with our modernization and transformation efforts.” The report validates NNSA plans to pursue a detailed cost and schedule plan for the RRW program, D’Agostino said.  The NNSA response also notes that the Bush administration plans to look closely at the reports recommendations. Representative Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.), chairwoman of the House Armed Forces subcommittee that oversees military funding for nuclear weapons, said in a statement the report is consistent with her concerns regarding the program (see GSN, March 21). “If the Reliable Replacement Warhead is going to move forward and we are to realize the program’s full potential, its risks must be identified and clear policy objectives outlined,” she said.  “The Bush administration has to make it clear that RRW will not come at the expense of stockpile stewardship and that a real commitment to not-testing exists.” The panel concluded that the current design proposal for the RRW program could lead to a final design that could enter the stockpile without testing.  Tarter said the laboratories are “quite confident” on this point. Back to top       U.S. Alters Nuclear Deal, Indian Officials Say Indian officials believe the United States is trying to backtrack on commitments it made when agreeing to a bilateral nuclear trade deal in 2005, The Hindu reported today (see GSN, April 20). Legislation exempting India from U.S. nuclear nonproliferation laws includes several measures that would restrict Indian nuclear activities in ways that the two nation’s leaders did not intend, according to Indian officials. The legislation, known as the Hyde Act, cleared the initial path for the United States to sell nuclear technology and material to New Delhi even though India is not party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and would not permit international inspectors to monitor its entire nuclear program. Officials have complained that the Bush administration has accepted the Hyde Act limits as it negotiates a detailed agreement to implement the nuclear deal. “Now that it is clear the Hyde Act itself is inadequate, the U.S. side is trying to reopen and reinterpret the commitments it made in its agreements with us,” said one official. Several issues have spurred Indian concern, in particular a disagreement over the conditions required for the United States to demand the return of nuclear equipment and material it provided to India. The United States proposed in a draft document that if either nation felt that its “supreme national interests” were threatened, consultations would begin that, failing any resolution, could lead to Washington demanding the return of its nuclear supplies, according to the Hindu. This trigger language is too broad, Indian officials said, describing the measure as an effort to restrict New Delhi’s freedom to conduct nuclear tests in the future.  India has observed a testing moratorium since 1998, but has avoided making a permanent commitment to a test ban. The United States has also encouraged other nations to adopt similar “right of return” measures in international nuclear trade guidelines, Indian officials said, thus restricting New Delhi’s ability to seek nuclear aid elsewhere if U.S. relations sour. Aside from limiting India’s testing rights, the “right of return” condition would discourage private industry from investing in India’s energy sector, according to Indian officials. “Which company would like to tie up its investment in a situation where the U.S. may invoke the clause?” said one official.  “Even if the actual return can be stalled, the U.S. would insist at a minimum that the plant be shut down.” In the end India would not agree to the condition, said an official. “They are demanding the return of nuclear fuel stockpiles, which is a no go for us,” the official said. Another issue frustrating Indian officials is a U.S. demand that India agree to place its civilian nuclear sites under permanent international supervision. The bilateral agreement calls for India to open its civilian nuclear facilities to monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, but Indian officials have said the United States has changed its position since 2005 and now requires that those sites could never be switched back to India’s military program. That position is unfair, according to Indian officials, because the United States could terminate nuclear supplies to a site under the “right of return” process, but the site would remain under agency safeguards. Indian officials are also frustrated by the United States seeking to deny New Delhi permission to produce plutonium from spent power plant fuel originally provided by the United States, according to the Hindu. “We were the first country to have reprocessing capabilities in Asia, since 1965,” one official said.  “There is no danger of leakage contributing to weapons program, unlike breakout countries where a little bit of cooperation might make all the difference.” Furthermore, any reprocessing activity would be conducted under international monitoring to ensure the plutonium was not diverted for military purposes, officials said (Siddarth Varadarajan, The Hindu, April 25). Back to top       Second North Korea Nuclear Test Could Follow Breakdown of Negotiations, U.S. General Says If negotiations fail to put North Korea on the path of nuclear disarmament, the Stalinist state would probably detonate another atomic bomb, the U.S. military chief in South Korea said yesterday (see GSN, April 24). “If the six-party talks do not produce a lasting settlement, the North Koreans will likely conduct a second and potentially additional nuclear tests when they see it as serving their purposes,” Gen. Burwell Bell said during a Senate hearing. “Without a diplomatic settlement, Pyongyang’s plutonium production capability and its reported HEU (highly enriched uranium) program places it on track to become a moderate nuclear power, potentially by the end of the decade,” he added. Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test in October, but it was seen as a very limited success due to the surprisingly small yield of the blast (Paul Eckert, Reuters/Yahoo!News, April 24). North Korea has refused to begin meeting its commitments under a February denuclearization deal until it collects $25 million from Banco Delta Asia in Macau.  Bush administration officials sayss the money, which had been linked to illicit North Korean financial activities, is available.  Pyongyang, though, has not yet taken the funds for reasons that remain unclear, the Associated Press reported. The regime is unfamiliar with the international banking system and should receive additional time to resolve the matter, Bell said (Foster Klug, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, April 24). Pyongyang yesterday acknowledged difficulties in moving the money out of the bank in Macau, Agence France-Presse reported. “There have been no results yet.  We have to see them,” Kim Myong Gil, deputy leader of the North Korean delegation to the United Nations, told the Yonhap News Agency.  “Transfer (to other banks) must become possible.” Other banks are seemingly concerned about accepting funds that have been linked to counterfeiting and other illegal activity, AFP reported.  North Korea also wants complete access to the international financial system. “There still exist various procedural matters to sort out and the efforts to resolve them are near the final stage,” said South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon.  “All the participants in the six-party talks are determined to implement the Feb. 13 agreements” (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, April 25). Back to top       Jordanian Parliament Approves Nuclear Power Plans Jordanian lawmakers on Sunday approved legislation authorizing the nation to pursue nuclear power, the Petra state news agency reported (see GSN, April 4). The nation imports 95 percent of its energy and plans to complete its first nuclear power station by 2015, according to Agence France-Presse.  The additional power could be used to operate water desalination stations (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 23). Back to top

Chemical Vials Found in Oklahoma Wildlife Refuge Authorities in Oklahoma found several vials of an unidentified chemical after a Boy Scout accidentally broke one container open in a wildlife refuge, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, March 5). The boy was exposed to a yellow liquid contained in one vial while he was digging Saturday in a crystal formation, according to Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge manager John Brock.  Exposure caused the boy to experience burning eyes, a runny nose and coughing. “It was pungent enough to make him run away from it,” Brock said.  The exposure did not cause the boy any extended health problems, he said. Brock and other officials subsequently found up to 10 additional vials, each 6-7 inches in length and sealed at both ends. “We didn’t know what we were dealing with so we backed out,” Brock said.  “My worse concern is that there may be something else buried out there.” Personnel from the U.S. Army 22nd Chemical Battalion are expected to arrive at the refuge by Friday to determine what is inside the vials and dispose of the material, AP reported. The U.S. military from 1942 to 1946 used the refuge area for bombing practice.  No chemical weapons are known to have been stored at the site, said Ross Adkins, public affairs head for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Tulsa. The vials are likely to be military material, but it is not yet known what they contain and how and when they ended up at the refuge, Adkins said. “There are a number of things that it could be,” he said (Tim Talley, Associated Press/KJRH.com, April 24). Back to top

U.S. Could Compromise on European Missile Defenses Defense Secretary Robert Gates indicated yesterday that the United States might accept compromises to its missile defense plans in Europe in order to gain Russian acceptance of the program, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 24). Moscow is concerned by both components of the plan — the installation of 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic, Gates said during a press conference in Warsaw. Concerns regarding the radar “are questions that we can answer,” he said.  Washington is also willing to address fears that the interceptor base might someday be modified in a fashion that could affect the Russian missile force. “In terms of assurances that the system would not be changed years from now in a way that might be more threatening to the Russian deterrent (force), it seems to me that’s a matter that could be negotiated,” Gates said. The Pentagon chief met yesterday with Polish leaders to discuss the missile defense plans.  Defense Minister Alexander Szczyglo said Poland would only house missile interceptors if they would boost Polish security, AP reported. Recent polls showed majority opposition in both Poland and the Czech Republic to hosting the installations (Associated Press I/New York Times, April 24). U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other foreign ministers from NATO nations tomorrow in Brussels are expected to persuade Russia of the threat from nations such as Iran that must be countered with missile defenses, Agence France-Presse reported. “Where there is a divergence is how quickly the Iranians could acquire the ability to fly further, faster and more reliably,” said a high-level U.S. official.  “We will continue to talk to Russia about why we come to the analysis that we come to, but we don’t think we have the luxury of waiting and seeing” (Lorne Cook, Agence France-Presse, April 25). If the United States does deploy missile defenses in Europe, they could be targeted by Russia, AP reported. “If we see that the facilities pose a threat to Russia’s security, the facilities will be objects for plans of our forces.  Whether strategic, nuclear or otherwise — that’s a technical question,” said Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, chief of the Russian general staff (Associated Press II/Kiev Post, April 24). Back to top       U.S. Launches Missile Defense Sensor Satellite The United States yesterday launched a satellite designed to study the heat emitted by ballistic missiles, the Missile Defense Agency announced (see GSN, Sept. 29, 2005). The Near Field Infrared Experiment (NFIRE) satellite is set to examine different types of heat sources, including aircraft engines, rocket plumes and ground fires.  Plans call for the agency to launch two missiles near the satellite this year, according to a release. “The Missile Defense Agency will use this data to validate and update the models and simulations that are fundamental to missile defense technologies,” says the release (U.S. Missile Defense Agency release, April 24). Back to top

Radioactive Material Found in Lithuania Border police in Lithuania on Sunday found a metal box containing a radioactive material in a car being driven into Belarus, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 14, 2003). The type of material was not immediately released, but the Russian word for uranium was written on the container. Authorities detained the two Belarusian citizens who were in the car, according to city prosecutors in Vilnius (Associated Press/Moscow Times, April 25). Back to top

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