Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

    Issue for Tuesday, May 1, 2007

    Week in Review

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  terrorism  
Terrorism Deaths Rose in 2006 Full Story
University to Offer Terrorism Studies Degree Full Story
Recent Stories

  nuclear  
Iran Throws Early Curveball at NPT Conference Full Story
Incentives Needed for North Korea, Group Says Full Story
U.N. Powers to Discuss Iranian Nuclear Crisis Full Story
Recent Stories

  biological  
University Set to Lead New Smallpox Vaccine Study Full Story
Recent Stories

  chemical  
More Chemical Vials Found in Oklahoma Full Story
Plant Burns 15,000 Gallons of VX Disposal Waste Full Story
Recent Stories

  missile1  
Syrian Missiles Underground, Israeli Paper Reports Full Story
Recent Stories

  missile2  
U.S. to Boost Missile Defense Dialogue With Russia Full Story
Recent Stories

  other  
U.S., Canada Conduct Disaster Preparedness Drill Full Story
Recent Stories

 

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It is most curious that the areas where we have military operations have the most attacks.  These statistics suggest that our war on global terrorism is not going very well.  It suggests we need to try a new approach.
—Naval Postgraduate School defense analysis professor John Arquilla, regarding sharp increases in terrorism incidents in Afghanistan and Iraq.


A Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty meeting at the Vienna International Center (above) saw trouble on its first day.  Iran objected to wording in the agenda regarding the “need for full compliance with the treaty”  (International Atomic Energy Agency photo).
A Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty meeting at the Vienna International Center (above) saw trouble on its first day. Iran objected to wording in the agenda regarding the “need for full compliance with the treaty” (International Atomic Energy Agency photo).
Iran Throws Early Curveball at NPT Conference

An early dispute has threatened to derail an international meeting designed to strengthen the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, April 30).

About 130 nations are participating in the first preparatory session for the treaty’s 2010 review conference, but the Vienna meeting could stall over a first-day disagreement on the agenda text (Veronika Oleksyn, Associated Press/Canada.com, May 1)...Full Story

Terrorism Deaths Rose in 2006

The number of deaths worldwide caused by terrorist strikes on civilian targets rose to 20,498 last year from 14,618 in 2005, the U.S. State Department said in its annual terrorism report issued yesterday (see GSN, May 1, 2006)...Full Story

More Chemical Vials Found in Oklahoma

More than 100 additional glass vials containing diluted chemical agents have been found at an Oklahoma wildlife refuge, The Oklahoman reported today (see GSN, April 30)...Full Story

Current Issue Tuesday, May 1, 2007
terrorism

Terrorism Deaths Rose in 2006


The number of deaths worldwide caused by terrorist strikes on civilian targets rose to 20,498 last year from 14,618 in 2005, the U.S. State Department said in its annual terrorism report issued yesterday (see GSN, May 1, 2006).

The number of attacks on nonmilitary targets increased from 11,153 to 14,338.  Almost half of the strikes and roughly two-thirds of the deaths occurred in Iraq, the New York Times reported. 

The number of terrorist attacks in Iraq rose by 91 percent, while the number of strikes in Afghanistan was up by 53 percent.  There was a 3-percent drop in terrorist incidents in all other countries.

“It is most curious that the areas where we have military operations have the most attacks,” said John Arquilla, a defense analysis professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif.  “These statistics suggest that our war on global terrorism is not going very well.  It suggests we need to try a new approach.”

The 2003 invasion of Iraq “has been used by terrorists as a rallying cry for radicalization and extremist activity that has contributed to instability in neighboring countries,” the report states.

Terrorists adapt their methods of attack over time, State Department acting terrorism coordinator Frank Urbancic said during a press briefing.  Suicide strikes like those seen in Iraq are increasingly seen in Afghanistan, and insurgents are finding new ways to make improvised explosives to overcome U.S. defensive measures, according to the Times.

“The terrorists, there’s no question, are intelligent people, and they learn from one another,” Urbancic said.  “The people in Afghanistan are watching the people in Iraq, the people in Iraq are watching the people elsewhere, and there’s a snowball effect.  And they work through the Internet, they communicate” (Scott Shane, New York Times, May 1).

The State Department report says the use in Iraq of chemical materials in attacks beginning late last year “signaled a dangerous strategic shift in tactics,” the Associated Press reported.

The report links the 25-percent increase in suicide bombings of crowds that did not involve vehicles to the higher casualty rate.  The number of suicide bombings involving vehicles was down by 12 percent.

Urbancic pointed to some antiterrorism successes.  Cooperation with a number of countries has improved, and authorities have foiled various terrorism plans, he said.

“Serious challenges do remain, there’s no question about that,” he said.  “This is not the kind of war where you can measure success with conventional numbers.  We cannot aspire to a single decisive battle that will break the enemy’s back, nor can we hope for a signed peace accord to mark victory” (Matthew Lee, Associated Press/RedOrbit.com, May 1).

Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Sudan and Syria remain on the list of state sponsors of terrorism.  Libya is no longer designated as a terrorism sponsor (see GSN, May 16), and Washington agreed as part of the February nuclear agreement with North Korea to “begin the process of removing” Pyongyang from the list (Shane, New York Times).

The report says North Korea has not been linked to an act of terrorism since the 1987 bombing of a South Korean airliner that killed 115, the Yonhap News Agency reported.  The section of the report focusing on North Korea is roughly half the size of previous editions, eliminating details regarding abductions of Japanese citizens (Yonhap News Agency, May 1).


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University to Offer Terrorism Studies Degree


The University of Maryland plans to offer its students a minor undergraduate degree in terrorism studies, the first U.S. such degree available to civilians, program officials announced Friday (see GSN, May 23, 2006).

The goal of the program would be “to better understand the origins, dynamics and social and psychological impacts of terrorism,” according to promotional literature.

Funded by the U.S. Homeland Security Department, a consortium of 16 institutions has been offering coursework over the past two years, but the Maryland program would be the first to offer a minor.  The program is scheduled to begin next fall.

Due to funding constraints the program would be available only to students who have completed at least 30 credits with a 3.0 grade point average or higher, said consortium assistant director Katherine Worboys.  Students would likely aspire to become intelligence analysts, operatives and security experts, the University of Maryland Diamondback reported.

Students attending an informational session Friday expressed enthusiasm for the program.

“I’m really gung-ho, conservative, ‘Yay, America,’” said freshman criminology major Brandon Patrick, who said he enjoys television shows such as “24,” “Numb3rs” and “Navy NCIS.”  “I’d be happy with a job at any of the (federal) agencies.”

“I’m interested in biological weapons, too,” added sophomore biology major Gabriel Band (see GSN, May 9, 2005; Theodore Sawchuck, The Diamondback, April 30).


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nuclear

Iran Throws Early Curveball at NPT Conference


An early dispute has threatened to derail an international meeting designed to strengthen the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, April 30).

About 130 nations are participating in the first preparatory session for the treaty’s 2010 review conference, but the Vienna meeting could stall over a first-day disagreement on the agenda text (Veronika Oleksyn, Associated Press/Canada.com, May 1).

Iran has objected to language in the meeting’s proposed agenda “reaffirming the need for full compliance with the treaty.”  Iranian officials said the wording was targeted at Iran, Reuters reported (Mark Heinrich, Reuters, May 1).

Meetings rules call for the agenda to be agreed by consensus, so Iran’s opposition could force the planned two-week session to recess while diplomats work out differences, according to AP (Oleksyn, Associated Press).

Session Chairman Yukiya Amano of Japan said he would try to persuade Iran to allow the current agenda language.

“I intend to stick to the agenda because things have changed.  North Korea exploded a nuclear device so we really must reaffirm the need for compliance,” he said.

“All parties want to start discussions on substance as quickly as possible.  No one wants a repeat of 2005,” Amano said, citing the failure of the last review conference to reach a consensus decision (see GSN, May 31, 2005).

The unexpected Iranian move disappointed fellow nations of the Nonaligned Movement who had planned to use the meeting to call on nuclear powers to speed their disarmament efforts, Reuters reported.

“We were surprised by Iran’s objections,” said one NAM diplomat (Heinrich, Reuters).


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Incentives Needed for North Korea, Group Says


The nations negotiating with North Korea must offer a specific mix of incentives buttressed by potential sanctions to persuade the regime in Pyongyang to end its nuclear weapons program, one organization said yesterday (see GSN, April 30).

Despite legitimate concerns over Pyongyang’s willingness to dismantle its nuclear program, “a phased negotiation process remains the only strategy with any chance of success,” according to a report from the International Crisis Group think tank.

Under a February agreement, North Korea would receive 50,000 tons of fuel oil or equivalent support in exchange for closing its Yongbyon nuclear reactor and allowing international inspectors to enter the country to monitor the process.  Another 950,000 tons of oil and aid would follow when Pyongyang shutters its nuclear weapons program, Agence France-Presse reported.

North Korea missed the April 14 deadline to take the initial steps toward denuclearization.

The International Crisis Group noted that the agreement fails to specifically demand an accounting of North Korea’s existing nuclear arsenal, does not address a potential highly enriched uranium program, and does not offer an overarching schedule for denuclearization.

“The U.S., South Korea, China and Japan now need to put forth a detailed, comprehensive offer for the second and subsequent phases, and back that offer with a credible threat of coercive measures should Pyongyang renege on the deal,” the report states.

Sanctions should be the focus of potential penalties, but military force could be an option should North Korea attempt to pass on nuclear material to a group or nation, the report states.  Among the incentives for fully meeting its commitments should be the pledge of regime survival.

North Korean denuclearization would have to be kept under constant scrutiny, according to the group.  Nuclear weapons are Pyongyang’s “trump card, and it may try to cheat and hide one in one of its countless tunnels,” according to the report (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, May 1).

Meanwhile, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said yesterday that there needs to be consideration now of measures to be taken against North Korea should it fail to follow through on its commitments under the February deal, the Associated Press reported.

“We cannot wait for a long time,” Aso said after meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Washington (Foster Klug, Associated Press/Northwest Florida Daily News, May 1).

South Korean Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung today pressed Japan to focus on the nuclear standoff rather than on North Korean abduction of Japanese citizens, United Press International reported.

“Now is the time to make joint efforts to establish a peace on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia,” he told Japanese lawmakers.

Japan has tied any provision of support under the nuclear deal to resolution of the abduction issue (United Press International, May 1).


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U.N. Powers to Discuss Iranian Nuclear Crisis


Officials from leading U.N. Security Council nations plan to meet tomorrow in London to discuss their strategy for pressuring Iran to suspend its nuclear program, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 30).

Senior officials from the five permanent council members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — and Germany would discuss what actions to take if Iran defies a council demand to freeze its uranium enrichment program and other nuclear activities, according to AFP.

“This is part of a pattern of discreet discussions on the next steps,” a Foreign Office spokesman said today (Agence France-Presse/EUbusiness.com, May 1)


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biological

University Set to Lead New Smallpox Vaccine Study


Saint Louis University plans to lead a major efficacy study of a new smallpox vaccine designed to have fewer side effects than the one used to completely eradicate the disease, school officials announced yesterday (see GSN, April 17).

Under the study plan, the new vaccine would be tested on 215 subjects throughout the country, including 30 in St. Louis.  The volunteers would receive the new vaccine — called Imvamune and produced by Danish-based pharmaceutical firm Bavarian Nordic — by itself and in combination with the existing Dryvax vaccine (see GSN, April 17).

“The main point of the study is to see if it takes less time to make antibodies against Imvamune as compared to Dryvax and will the antibody response be at least as good,” said principal investigator Sharon Frey.

“If there was a release of smallpox today, and we vaccinated today, how rapid would the immune response have to be in order to prevent the person from developing the disease?” asked Frey.   “Historically, it’s been three days.”

Six other U.S. research institutions are expected to participate in the study (Cheryl Wittenauer, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, April 30).


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chemical

More Chemical Vials Found in Oklahoma


More than 100 additional glass vials containing diluted chemical agents have been found at an Oklahoma wildlife refuge, The Oklahoman reported today (see GSN, April 30).

Several vials were found last month after a Boy Scout broke one open while digging for crystals at the Great Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge.  Personnel from the Army’s 22nd Chemical Battalion since Friday have since found at least another 130 of the containers.  The search is continuing.

The vials are believed to have come from kits once used to prepare soldiers for a chemical attack.  The military made more than 200,000 of the sets over several decades, before ending production in 1969.

Most kits have been destroyed.  However, the location of some sets that were buried remains unknown, said U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency spokeswoman Karen Drewen.

Materials used in the kits included mustard gas and lewisite diluted by chloroform, along with weakened samples of phosgene, cyanogen chloride and chloropicrin (Josh Rabe, The Oklahoman, May 1).


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Plant Burns 15,000 Gallons of VX Disposal Waste


Veolia Environmental Services in Port Arthur, Texas, by the end of last week had incinerated 15,000 gallons of waste produced by VX nerve agent disposal in Indiana, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 30).

There had been 23 shipments of hydrolysate from the Newport Chemical Depot at that point.  Burning began April 22.

Some local residents and environmental groups said there was no advance notice of the transport plan until after the $49 million contract had been finalized.  They have tried to organize opposition to wastewater burning at the Veolia plant, one of a number of refineries and chemical facilities that surround Port Arthur.

The Environmental Defense Fund lists Port Arthur, an economically depressed, majority black city near the Louisiana border, among the top 10 percent of the country’s dirtiest communities, AP reported.

“We didn’t even get a warning that it was coming,” said Hilton Kelley, head of the Port Arthur Community In-Power Development Association.  “We’re being used as guinea pigs because we are the area of least resistance.  How are you going to go out and protest for clean air when you are just trying to get food for your family to eat?”

The U.S. Army says the wastewater is safe to burn.  There was no need for a warning, said Port Arthur Mayor Oscar Ortiz.

“Why create a big scare thing if there’s nothing there to be afraid of?  Why do something about a project that’s safe and creating a lot of work?” he said (Monica Rhor, Associated Press/Las Cruces Sun-News, April 30).


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missile1

Syrian Missiles Underground, Israeli Paper Reports


Syria has moved its ballistic missile arsenal to a deeply buried storage complex consisting of bunkers, production facilities, laboratories and command posts, the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot reported yesterday (see GSN, June 3, 2005).

The “missile city” contains more than 250 Scud missiles, all of which can be armed with chemical warheads that are stored at a separate site, according to the paper.

The missile site also houses about 100 antiship cruise missiles purchased from China, the paper reported (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 30).


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missile2

U.S. to Boost Missile Defense Dialogue With Russia


U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that he hopes increased dialogue can help persuade Russia that missile defense elements in Europe would be “a friendly force,” the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 30).

Moscow has publicly and repeatedly objected to Washington’s plans to deploy 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic.  President Vladimir Putin last week noted the missile defense effort among his reasons for suspending Russia’s commitments under the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (see GSN, April 26).

 “Our intention of course is to have a defense system that prevents rogue regimes from holding Western Europe and/or America hostage,” Bush said.  “Evidently, the Russians see it differently.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who met yesterday with Bush at the White House, has pushed the administration to better make its case to Russia for missile defense deployment in Europe.  She yesterday said Moscow should be involved in producing an analysis on whether the system is necessary, AP reported.

Bush asked Putin to meet with Defense Secretary Robert Gates in Moscow last week to allow for a direct discussion of the proposal (see GSN, April 24).

“We have started a dialogue, as a result of Secretary Gates’ visit, that hopefully will make explicit our intentions, and hopefully will present an opportunity to share with the Russians so that they don’t see us an antagonist force, but see us as a friendly force,” Bush said (Desmond Butler, Associated Press/Forbes.com, April 30).

Negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic should finish this year, the London Guardian reported.  However, the two nations are increasing their demands for U.S. support in exchange for hosting the missile defense elements.

“We want legal guarantees.  I can’t go into details but it is to do with how the base is protected and also about the base agreement,” said a senior Czech official.

Poland has reportedly requested Patriot air defense missiles that would provide protection against Russian short- and medium-range missiles (Ian Traynor, The Guardian, April 30).


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other

U.S., Canada Conduct Disaster Preparedness Drill


The United States and Canada yesterday began a 19-day disaster preparedness drill that includes responses to a nuclear detonation and terrorist attacks, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Dec. 12, 2006).

Thousands of U.S. military personnel, along with officials from local and state agencies, are participating in Ardent Sentry-Northern Edge 07.

U.S. Northern Command called the event “the largest and most complex exercise” that it has ever conducted.

“The intent obviously is to stress the system,” said Northern Command spokesman Mike Kucharak.

Exercise scenarios include a hurricane hitting Rhode Island, terrorist actions at sea and against aircraft in Alaska, and the explosion of a 10-kiloton atomic bomb in Indiana.

Military personnel trained to respond to nuclear events are set to participate in the Indiana scenario, Kucharak said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 30).


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