IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, shown in March, has said Iran’s uranium enrichment prowess could force Western nations to modify their goals regarding Iran’s nuclear program (Samuel Kubani/Getty Images). Iranian Centrifuges Running Better Than Expected Iran has begun to operate its uranium enrichment centrifuges at higher speeds, moving the nation closer to producing nuclear fuel at the “industrial scale” already claimed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, May 14)...Full Story

U.S. Nonproliferation Experts Urge Bush Administration to Keep Limits on Nuclear Trade With India The Bush administration should resist Indian efforts to modify the U.S. law setting conditions for a planned U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal, a group of nuclear nonproliferation experts said yesterday in a letter to Congress (see GSN, May 8)...Full Story

Rice, Putin Discuss U.S. Missile Defense Plans in Europe, Agree to Tone Down Aggressive Rhetoric The United States and Russia did not resolve a dispute over U.S. plans to deploy missile defenses in Eastern Europe, but top officials agreed today to back off using inflammatory language, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 14)...Full Story

	Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Canada to Provide WMD Response Aid to Indonesia Canada agreed yesterday to provide Indonesia with equipment to respond to a terrorist WMD attack, the Indonesian Antara news service reported (see GSN, May 5, 2004). The grant deal was signed by Canadian Ambassador John Holmes and Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Agustiadi S.P.  The agreement followed a 2004 bilateral joint statement, Antara reported. Agustiadi said the new equipment was needed to meet a growing threat of terrorists acquiring chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons. “It is believed the terrorists have become more progressive and are continuing to develop various CBRN devices which have greater impact and are more lethal than conventional equipment,” he said (Antara I, May 14). Furthermore, “biological and chemical materials in the country can easily be made available,” added antiterrorism official Ansyaad Mbai.  “We have a lot of chemical factories and enough bio-diversities that could be utilized to produce weapons” (Antara II, May 14). Back to top

Iranian Centrifuges Running Better Than Expected Iran has begun to operate its uranium enrichment centrifuges at higher speeds, moving the nation closer to producing nuclear fuel at the “industrial scale” already claimed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, May 14). Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency visited Iran’s underground enrichment facility Sunday, giving Iranian officials just two hours to allow the inspectors into the site, according to the Times. What they found were about 1,300 centrifuges operating at higher speeds, thus more productively, than previously expected.  Iranian officials have steadfastly claimed their efforts are intended to produce fuel for a future Iranian nuclear power program, but the United States and other nations fear that Tehran could use the same equipment to make nuclear weapon materials (David Sanger, New York Times, May 15). “They are speeding up some centrifuges (the machines which spin rotors at supersonic speeds to enrich uranium) and beginning to enrich towards an industrial level” said one diplomat (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, May 15. “We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich,” added agency head Mohamed ElBaradei.  “From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that’s a fact.” The development could affect U.S. strategy toward resolving the nuclear crisis, the Times reported. U.S. diplomatic efforts have sought to prevent Iran from operating any centrifuges, but Tehran has pushed its program forward while Washington, the European Union and the U.N. Security Council have made repeated demands for an Iranian freeze. The Bush administration may need to adjust its goals by seeking to deny Iran the ability to rapidly convert its civilian program to a military one, said a senior European diplomat. The aim of suspending Iran’s enrichment activities is probably obsolete, agreed ElBaradei, who has advocated finding a face-saving solution for all sides. “Quite clearly suspension is a requirement by the Security Council, and I would hope the Iranians would listen to the world community,” he said.  “But from a proliferation perspective, the fact of the matter is that one of the purposes of suspension — keeping them from getting the knowledge — has been overtaken by events.” “The focus now should be to stop them from going to industrial-scale production, to allow us to do a full-court-press inspection and to be sure they remain inside the [Nuclear Nonproliferation] Treaty,” ElBaradei added. The Sunday inspection indicated that Iran is operating about 1,300 centrifuges in eight 164-centrifuge “cascades,” the Times reported.  Technicians were testing another two cascades and installing two others. “They are at the stage where they are doing one cascade a week,” said a diplomat familiar with the analysis of Iran’s activities.  That rate could allow Iran to have 8,000 centrifuges installed by the end of the year. The current batch of centrifuges has been enriching uranium to nuclear fuel-grade levels, containing less than 5 percent of the uranium 235 isotope that suits nuclear weapons.  Weapon-grade uranium typically contains more than 90 percent of the key isotope (Sanger, New York Times). Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said yesterday that he expects to meet with lead Iranian nuclear diplomat Ali Larijani within two weeks, Agence France-Presse reported. “I don’t know the exact date, but we are working on it,” he said in Brussels.  The meeting “will probably take place at the end of the month,” he said (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, May 14). The latest U.N. Security Council deadline for Iran to freeze its enrichment program arrives May 23, and IAEA head ElBaradei is expected to issue an assessment of the Iranian program early next week, according to the Times (Sanger, New York Times). Back to top       U.S. Nonproliferation Experts Urge Bush Administration to Keep Limits on Nuclear Trade With India The Bush administration should resist Indian efforts to modify the U.S. law setting conditions for a planned U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal, a group of nuclear nonproliferation experts said yesterday in a letter to Congress (see GSN, May 8). U.S. President George W. Bush signed the measure late last year to exempt India from U.S. nuclear nonproliferation rules, thus enabling the sale of nuclear technology and materials to New Delhi.  India is not party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and U.S. laws until now have denied Indian access to U.S. nuclear aid. The December law set the stage for what has proven to be a difficult negotiation to hammer out the details a subsequent agreement specifying what India will receive. India has objected to some of the limits set by the December law, but those provisions must remain, said the nonproliferation experts. “If the administration concludes the negotiation by conceding to the Indian position in certain areas, the result could be reduced accountability, increased Indian nuclear weapons production capacity, further damage to the credibility of U.S. nonproliferation efforts, and a proposed agreement for nuclear cooperation that is inconsistent with minimal conditions for trade established in law by Congress,” says the letter delivered yesterday and today to House and Senate offices. The letter is signed by 14 experts, including former U.S. nonproliferation officials George Bunn, Hal Bengelsdorf and Fred McGoldrick. “We respectfully urge you to communicate to the White House that you will oppose any proposed agreement for nuclear cooperation with India that does not explicitly meet all the requirements outlined in U.S. law and other well-established U.S. policies for civil nuclear cooperation,” the letter adds. The authors identify three provisions of the new U.S. law that they say must be retained, including: — a measure giving the United States to recover nuclear equipment and material if India conducts a nuclear test — a requirement that Indian facilities opened to international inspection as part of the deal must remain allow such monitoring in perpetuity; and — a ban on providing India with technology to produce its own nuclear fuel, such as uranium enrichment or plutonium separation equipment. Indian View Meanwhile, a former India nuclear official yesterday urged his government to abandon the deal unless the United States modifies its current restrictions. “If the U.S. administration is not willing to approach its Congress to amend the act suitably, the only recourse India must take is to outright reject the nuclear deal,” said A. Gopalakrishnan, former chairman of India’s Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, in an online commentary. He said India needs to preserve its right to test nuclear weapons and to produce its own nuclear fuel. “In the rapidly changing global strategic environment, the maintenance of a reliable and adequate nuclear deterrent may necessitate future Indian nuclear weapon tests,” he said. Aside from expanding its domestic nuclear facilities, India hopes to sell its nuclear technology abroad, a senior industry official told the Indian Economic Times yesterday. “There is demand for our reactors from abroad and we are hoping we will be able to export them soon,” said Harsh Kapoor, of the Nuclear Power Corp of India Ltd.  “We have received requests from a few countries for building them on turnkey basis.” India would export a version of its 220-megawatt reactors at Kaiga that are fueled with natural uranium and moderated with heavy water. Such reactors have often raised concerns among nonproliferation advocates because the design is more suitable to producing plutonium which could be diverted to a weapons program (Greg Webb, GSN, May 15). Back to top       Russia, Myanmar Sign Reactor Deal Russia signed an agreement today to build a 10-megawatt nuclear research reactor in Myanmar, RIA Novosti reported (see GSN, May 16, 2002). The reactor would use 20-percent enriched uranium fuel and would be open to international monitoring, according to a statement from Russia’s nuclear power agency.  Myanmar would use the facility to produce medical isotopes and to conduct research into silicon alloying, according to RIA Novosti. The deal also entails Russian training for as many as 300 technicians from Myanmar who will operate the reactor (RIA Novosti, Mary 15). Back to top       Switzerland to Join Nuclear Terror Prevention Group Switzerland plans to join a U.S.-Russian led effort to prevent nuclear terrorism, ITAR-Tass reported today (see GSN, May 4). The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terror was announced at last summer’s Group of Eight summit in St. Petersburg. “We welcome Switzerland’s decision to join the Global Initiative and hope that it will make a weighty contribution to its realization,” according to a Russian Foreign Ministry statement.  “We also hope that the initiative will be joined by other countries who share its general aims and are committed to fighting nuclear terrorism. Switzerland was the 31st nation to announce its intention to join the initiative (ITAR-Tass, May 15). Back to top

Global Health Officials Debate Smallpox Plans The question of whether to destroy the last known samples of the smallpox virus would be discussed at a major international health meeting that began yesterday in Geneva, according to a U.S. release (see GSN, April 17). Earlier this year a World Health Organization leadership board approved a draft resolution recommending delaying any decision until at least 2010.  The only two known smallpox samples are kept at Russian and U.S. laboratories (see GSN, Jan. 30). The World Health Assembly’s 60th annual meeting, which began yesterday, would consider the resolution. The Bush administration has advocated keeping the samples of the lethal disease for research even though the last case of smallpox occurred 30 years ago. “The United States and the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] take very seriously the trust that we hold in being the custodians of the smallpox virus,” said CDC Director Julie Gerberding. “We also take very seriously our responsibility to conduct the research that the global community has deemed necessary to be sure that we have the best possible means of protecting people should that virus ever be re-released into our society” (U.S. State Department release, May 14). Back to top

Rice, Putin Discuss U.S. Missile Defense Plans in Europe, Agree to Tone Down Aggressive Rhetoric The United States and Russia did not resolve a dispute over U.S. plans to deploy missile defenses in Eastern Europe, but top officials agreed today to back off using inflammatory language, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 14). “I have said while I am here that the rhetoric is not helpful,” said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice following a Moscow meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  “It is disturbing to Americans who are trying to do our best to maintain an even relationship.” “We are going to have our differences, there is no doubt about that. There are going to be old scars to overcome, there is no doubt about that. But the relationship needs to be free of exaggerated rhetoric,” she added. Russia has strongly objected to U.S. efforts to place 10 missile interceptors in Poland (see GSN, Feb. 22).  U.S. officials have said the move is designed to defeat a growing missile threat from Iran, but Russian officials have expressed concern that the site could be the first piece of a larger system that could engage Russian strategic missiles (Matthew Lee, Associated Press/Chicago Tribune, May 15). The two sides continued their disagreement today. “The United States needs to be able to move forward to use technology to defend itself and we're going to do that,” she said after meeting with Putin (Arshad Mohammed, Reuters/Washington Post, May 15). For Russia’s part, “our stance on missile defense was reaffirmed,” said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who attended today’s meetings. Lavrov agreed, however, to ease up on the harsh language. “The president supported the American side's understanding that it's necessary to tone down the rhetoric in public statements and concentrate on concrete business,” he said. Prior to today’s meeting, Rice said there were U.S.-Russian tensions, but they did not compare to those of the Cold War era. “I don't throw around terms like 'new Cold War,’” Rice said.  “It is a big, complicated relationship, but it is not one that is anything like the implacable hostility” of the Cold War. “It is not an easy time in the relationship,” she added, “but it is also not, I think, a time in which cataclysmic things are affecting the relationship or catastrophic things are happening in the relationship” (Lee, Associated Press). Back to top       Pentagon Orders Missile Interceptors The U.S. Defense Department has awarded Raytheon Corp. with a $140 million contract to acquire the materials needed to build 36 ballistic missile interceptors, a Pentagon release announce yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 17, 2006). The Standard Missile 3 Block 1A systems would be deployed on U.S. Aegis cruisers (Defense Department release, May 14).   Back to top

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