IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei, shown in March, expressed concern over Iran’s nuclear program in a report released today (Samuel Kubani/Getty Images). IAEA Understanding of Iran’s Nuclear Program Has “Deteriorated” Top U.N. nuclear inspector Mohamed ElBaradei set the stage today for the Security Council to impose another round of sanctions against Iran.  In a report distributed to the council and the International Atomic Energy Agency’s governing board, he complained that the agency’s understanding of Iran’s nuclear program has “deteriorated” (see GSN, May 22). On March 24, the council imposed a second batch of sanctions against Iran and set a 60-day deadline for Tehran to freeze its uranium enrichment and other nuclear fuel-related programs (see GSN, March 26).  Today’s report from Vienna made clear that Iranian leaders have chosen to ignore the deadline...Full Story

Latest U.S.-Indian Nuclear Talks Produce No Deal U.S.-Indian talks this week failed “to bridge the remaining gaps” between the nations’ efforts to conclude a nuclear trade agreement, an Indian spokesman said (see GSN, May 22)...Full Story

U.S. Could Test Missile Interceptor Tomorrow The United States plans to conduct a major missile defense test this week by trying to shoot down a ballistic missile launched over the Pacific from Alaska with an interceptor fired from California, Inside Missile Defense reported today (see GSN, May 11)...Full Story

	Wednesday, May 23, 2007

New York Seeks Added WMD-Response Team U.S. lawmakers from New York are seeking a second National Guard team trained to respond to WMD emergencies, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, April 9). The U.S. Congress has previously approved the creation of 55 Civil Support Teams to be fielded by the Guard.  Original plans called for one team per state, plus additional units for District of Columbia and U.S. territories, but New York merits another team, the lawmakers said. “Because New York City is such a target for would-be terrorists, it is vital to have an additional Civil Support Team located downstate,” in addition to the first team based in Albany, said Representative Peter King (R-N.Y.). Chances for receiving the team were good, King said (Associated Press/Newsday, May 22). Back to top

IAEA Understanding of Iran’s Nuclear Program Has “Deteriorated” Top U.N. nuclear inspector Mohamed ElBaradei set the stage today for the Security Council to impose another round of sanctions against Iran.  In a report distributed to the council and the International Atomic Energy Agency’s governing board, he complained that the agency’s understanding of Iran’s nuclear program has “deteriorated” (see GSN, May 22). On March 24, the council imposed a second batch of sanctions against Iran and set a 60-day deadline for Tehran to freeze its uranium enrichment and other nuclear fuel-related programs (see GSN, March 26).  Today’s report from Vienna made clear that Iranian leaders have chosen to ignore the deadline. “Iran has not suspended its enrichment-related activities.  Iran has continued with the operation of [its pilot enrichment site].  It has also continued with the construction of [its main, underground centrifuge facility at Natanz] and has started feeding cascades with uranium hexafluoride,” ElBaradei’s four-page report says (Greg Webb, GSN, May 23). “Obviously, the bottom line is that they haven’t accepted a suspension of enrichment.  That’s all the Security Council needs to take further sanctions,” said proliferation expert Gary Samore of the Council on Foreign Relations (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, May 23). Agency inspectors conducted their first unannounced visit to the Iran’s centrifuge facility May 13 as part of a verification plan introduced after the facility’s scale had enlarged considerably, the report says. Inside the site, the inspectors found Iran eight 164-centrifuge cascades in operation with uranium gas.  Two additional cascades were undergoing testing without uranium, and three more were under construction, according to the report.  The numbers suggest Iran has made strong headway toward its initial goal of installing 3,000 centrifuges. Iranian officials told the agency that their equipment was enriching uranium to contain up to 4.8 percent of uranium 235.  Agency officials were “in the process of verifying” that figure, the report says. Light-water nuclear power reactors, such as the one Russia is building for Iran at Bushehr (see GSN, May 17) and the one Iran says it has begun to build independently (see GSN, May 21), typically use fuel enriched to below 5 percent uranium 235. Western nations have pressed Iran to stop its enrichment program, fearing that Tehran could use the same equipment to create material containing 90-percent, or nuclear weapon-grade, uranium 235. Iran’s reduced cooperation with the agency over the past year has undermined the agency’s ability to demonstrate Iran’s peaceful intentions, the report says. “The agency’s level of knowledge of certain aspects of Iran’s nuclear-related activities has deteriorated,” it says. Frustrated by agency probes and Western pressure, Iran has reduced the amount of information it once voluntarily provided.  It has moved toward supplying the minimum amount of data required by its safeguards agreement with the agency.  Iran has signed, but not ratified, its Additional Protocol to that agreement, and Tehran no longer offers all the information to the protocol would require if it were in force. With that weak cooperation, as well as other unresolved questions, the agency would have trouble removing international suspicions over Iran, the report says. “Unless Iran addresses the long outstanding verification issues, and implements the Additional Protocol and the required transparency measures, the agency will not be able to fully reconstruct the history of Iran’s nuclear program and provide assurances about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran or about the exclusively peaceful nature of that program,” it says (Webb, GSN). One U.S. official blasted Iran’s refusal to curb its nuclear program “Iran is out of compliance and Iran is once again thumbing its nose at the international community,” Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said today at the Heritage Foundation.  He predicted a “strong” drive toward a third round of Security Council sanctions, but said Iranian cooperation could end the crisis. “We want to get to negotiations because we want Iran to know that it does not have a right to develop nuclear weapons, that we will oppose it in its drive to have a nuclear weapons future,” he said.  “Instead we want to help Iran create an opportunity to create a civil nuclear capacity for energy production.” “Iran can’t have it both ways,” he added.  “They can’t pretend to be a member of the international community, the IAEA and U.N., and yet violate the rules of both the IAEA and the U.N” (John Fox, GSN, May 23). U.S. to Lodge Protest Meanwhile, U.S. officials would probably lodge a formal complaint with ElBaradei over his recent comments suggesting that the world might have to accept Iran’s enrichment program, a diplomat told Agence France-Presse (see GSN, May 15). “From a proliferation perspective, the fact of the matter is that one of the purposes of suspension — keeping [Iran] from getting the knowledge — has been overtaken by events,” ElBaradei told the New York Times last week.  “The focus now should be to stop them from going to industrial-scale production, to allow us to do a full-court-press inspection and to be sure they remain inside the [Nuclear Nonproliferation] Treaty.” Vienna-based U.S. Ambassador Gregory Schulte met with ElBaradei today, shortly before the agency report was released (Agence France-Presse). Bush administration officials have consistently charged Iran with planning to develop nuclear weapons and have therefore insisted that Iran not be allowed to have any uranium enrichment capacity. “We’re not going to agree to accept limited enrichment,” Burns said today.   “We not going to agree to accept that the 1,300 centrifuges can continue to spin at their plant in Natanz” (Fox, GSN). France would support the U.S. protest of ElBaradei, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said today. “Our permanent representative in Vienna will take part in the American initiative,” said Jean-Baptiste Mattei. “We were indeed surprised by several comments from Mr. ElBaradei over the weekend,” he said.  “We share the gist of concerns expressed by our American partners — along with several other partners, for that matter” (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, May 23). Back to top       Latest U.S.-Indian Nuclear Talks Produce No Deal U.S.-Indian talks this week failed “to bridge the remaining gaps” between the nations’ efforts to conclude a nuclear trade agreement, an Indian spokesman said (see GSN, May 22). Technical experts from both countries met Monday and Tuesday in London to discuss solutions to the impasse that has stalled a U.S. effort to sell nuclear technology and materials to India.  Indian officials have objected to some of the nuclear nonproliferation measures contained in a U.S. law enabling the deal. “We clarified certain concepts and exchanged ideas on making further progress toward a mutually agreed text,” Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Navtej Sarna said in New Delhi. U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns had planned to finalize the deal this month in New Delhi, but that visit has been postponed and the next meeting has not been scheduled, the Associated Press reported (Matthew Rosenberg, Associated Press, May 23). Meanwhile a top Indian nuclear official said the nation would not budge from its insistence to pursue plutonium production from spent nuclear power plant fuel, the Hindu reported today. One of the U.S. demands for the bilateral agreement is to have the right to prevent India from separating plutonium from U.S.-supplied fuel.  Washington would probably accede to India’s wish on this issue, said Anil Kakodkar, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission. “Recycling had been followed as a consistent policy since the beginning of India's nuclear program as it reduces waste to a very small amount and makes it possible to derive 60 to 80 per cent more energy from the same,” he said. Construction of an Indian “breeder” reactor, designed to produce greater amounts of plutonium in its spent fuel than other reactor designs, would be completed by 2011, Kakodkar said (see GSN, March 10, 2006; Antara Das, Hindu, May 23). Elsewhere, a senior Australian vowed not to sell uranium to India until the South Asian nation joins the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the Press Trust of India reported. “The answer is no,” said Federal Resources Minister Ian Macfarlane.  “The Australian uranium industry can prosper without India, that’s my answer.” “We have a prohibition on the basis they have not signed the NPT,” he added. The statement appeared at odds to earlier remarks by Prime Minister John Howard, who suggested earlier this year that he was open to considering uranium sales to India (see GSN, March 29; Press Trust of India, May 23). Back to top       U.S. to Allow START Pact to Lapse The Bush administration will seek to negotiate a follow-on agreement to a major nuclear weapons treaty with Russia, but will not seek to extend the pact’s rigorous verification measures, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, March 6). The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty is set to expire in 2009, ending the mutual verification provisions that have allowed the parties to confirm the destruction of nuclear weapon delivery vehicles that once carried thousands of nuclear warheads (see GSN, May 18). The 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty calls for the United States and Russia to further reduce the number of warheads they deploy, but it has no verification or monitoring provisions. START “has been important and for the most part has done its job,” Assistant Secretary of State Paula DeSutter told Reuters, but the treaty compliance provisions “are no longer necessary,” no are further reductions to warhead levels (see GSN, May 17, 2005). “We don’t believe we’re in a place where we need to have to have the detailed lists (of weapons) and verification measures,” she added. Still, crafting a follow-on agreement to START is “one of my top priorities” this year, DeSutter said. Under START, the United States and Russia reduced the number of deployed warheads to less than 6,000 each.  In a recent data exchange, Russia declared that as of Jan. 1 it had 4,162 deployed strategic warheads and the United States declared having 5,866 (Carol Giacomo, Reuters/Washington Post, May 22). Back to top       North Korean Money Remains Tied Up Despite some progress in enabling North Korea to recover once-frozen bank funds, the problem continues and no timeline for its resolution can be predicted, South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon said today (see GSN, May 17). North Korea has said it will not begin to implement a February nuclear freeze agreement until it receives the $25 million in assets formerly frozen by the Macau-based Banco Delta Asia.  The United States has permitted the bank to release the money, but so far no bank has agreed to accept a transfer. “The process of resolving technical problems is moving toward the direction we are aiming at, but its pace is not as fast as we had hoped,” Song told reporters today.  “I think it is too early to say when it will be resolved” (Agence France-Presse/ChannelNewsAsia, May 23). Back to top       South Korea Joins Antinuclear Terror Initiative South Korea plans to participate in a U.S.-Russian-led effort to prevent nuclear terrorism, the Foreign Ministry announced today (see GSN, May 22). “The country decided to join the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism as of May 22, depositing its approval letters with the United States and Russia,” according to a ministry statement. The nation expected its participation would result in better security over South Korean nuclear facilities and improved cooperation with other countries, the statement said (Agence France-Presse, May 23). Back to top

U.S. Could Test Missile Interceptor Tomorrow The United States plans to conduct a major missile defense test this week by trying to shoot down a ballistic missile launched over the Pacific from Alaska with an interceptor fired from California, Inside Missile Defense reported today (see GSN, May 11). The test, which could take place as soon as tomorrow, would be the first intercept attempt by the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system since a September success (see GSN, Sept. 5, 2006). Critics have accused the Missile Defense Agency of creating unrealistic conditions in past tests, and this week’s effort would try to increase the realism by launching from Alaska. “In our flight tests, we haven’t launched our targets from North Korea,” agency Executive Director Patricia Sanders said last week (see GSN, May 18).  The next test would be more realistic “by mimicking the same geometry” of a potential North Korean attack, she said (John Liang, Inside Missile Defense, May 23). “This will be as realistic as it can be, based upon what we are allowed to do within various safety regulations,” agency spokesman Richard Lehner said. Missile defense critics doubted that statement. “The test is highly choreographed, and much simpler than what the system would face in a real battle engagement,” said Frederick Lamb, a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Illinois. He expressed concern that a successful test would be used by the agency to claim that “the system has a substantial capability in a real battle situation,” he said. “That would be a gross exaggeration,” added Lamb, who participated in a major missile defense study by the American Physical Society (see GSN, July 15, 2003). The pending test would also serve as an opportunity to test U.S. ship-based and sea-based radars, the New York Times reported (Thom Shankar, New York Times, May 23). Back to top       U.S. Promotes European Missile Defense Plans A senior U.S. official has begun a trip to Poland and the Czech Republic to discuss U.S. plans to deploy missile defenses there, the Baltimore Sun reported today.  Washington asked to deploy 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a missile defense radar in the Czech Republic (see GSN, May 14). Assistant Secretary of State John Rood met yesterday with Czech Deputy Prime Minister Tomas Pojar (Baltimore Sun, May 23). Rood was scheduled to meet Polish officials tomorrow, Agence France-Presse reported. Czech and Polish citizens have broadly opposed the U.S. deployment, according to AFP (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, May 22). Russian President Vladimir Putin today reaffirmed his opposition as well during a visit to Vienna. “It will lead to nothing else than a new arms race and find this completely counterproductive,” he said (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, May 23). Back to top

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