FBI chief Robert Mueller yesterday told a Miami conference that nuclear terrorism can only be prevented with greater international cooperation (Marc Serota/Getty Images). U.S. Urges Cooperation to Battle Nuclear Terrorism By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire MIAMI — International cooperation is imperative to address the threat of nuclear terrorism, FBI chief Robert Mueller said yesterday, opening a weeklong conference here (see GSN, June 8). Mueller also stressed the importance of securing nuclear materials before terrorists can get obtain them...Full Story

Even Tiny Nuclear Explosion Could Be Terrorist “Success,” Homeland Security Scientist Says By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire MIAMI — A nuclear device assembled by terrorists is likely to have a “relatively low yield,” much smaller than the 10-kiloton weapon dropped on Hiroshima at the end of World War II, the chief nuclear scientist with the U.S. Homeland Security Department said yesterday (see GSN, May 11)..Full Story

Libya Pulls Back on Chemical Weapons Disposal Libya has threatened to cancel a contract this month with the United States to eliminate its small stockpile of mustard agent, Reuters reported Friday (see GSN, March 31, 2006)...Full Story

	Tuesday, June 12, 2007

U.S. Urges Cooperation to Battle Nuclear Terrorism By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire MIAMI — International cooperation is imperative to address the threat of nuclear terrorism, FBI chief Robert Mueller said yesterday, opening a weeklong conference here (see GSN, June 8). Mueller also stressed the importance of securing nuclear materials before terrorists can get obtain them. “Nuclear terrorism is a global threat that requires a global response,” he said.  “No one country can prevent a nuclear terrorism attack on its own.” Mueller, who became FBI director one week before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, called the specter of nuclear terror one of the world’s most serious and deadly threats. Terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, have demonstrated their desire to acquire and use weapons of mass destruction, and it is just a matter of time before someone sells such devastating weapons to the highest bidder, he said. Deploying radiation detection equipment at ports and borders around the world is just one part of necessary security measures, Mueller said. “It is safe to assume there are many individuals who would not think twice about using such a weapon,” Mueller told the crowd of foreign and domestic defense and law enforcement officials attending the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism Law Enforcement Conference (see GSN, May 11).  “We must start with the source.  We must secure loose nuclear material.” “Each and every country must safeguard its own nuclear material,” he said.  “Our safety can only be secured with the help of the international community.”  The United States has provided relevant training to more than 5,000 individuals from more than 23 countries through the International Counterproliferation Program, an initiative involving the FBI, the Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the Homeland Security Department.  The training has included instruction in WMD detection, border security, undercover investigations, crisis management and nuclear forensics (see GSN, June 1). The United States in September, in conjunction with four foreign partners — Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova and Georgia — plans to conduct an exercise responding to an incident involving a radiological weapon, “from start to finish to see where we are solid and where we need to improve,” the FBI chief said.  “By training together we can work better together.” Intelligence gathering, information sharing and collaboration are essential, he said.  “We all face the prospect in the near future that a terrorist will steal, smuggle, buy or build a nuclear weapon, and we must focus on prevention.  We cannot afford to wait for a calling card to announce an attack.” Before Mueller’s address, the Miami conference was linked via satellite with a conference in the Kazakh capital of Astana, where officials are meeting this week to discuss the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. The program was announced during the 2006 Group of Eight summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, as a joint initiative between the United States and Russia.  Since then, 52 nations have joined the program, committing to secure nuclear facilities and materials (see GSN, July 17, 2006). It was the third such meeting regarding the Global Initiative and representatives from 40 countries were in attendance, said John Rood, assistant secretary of state for international security and nonproliferation.  The International Atomic Energy Agency and the European Union sent officials as observers. Rood, who was attending the Kazakh conference as a U.S. representative, said delegations discussed individual efforts to counter nuclear terrorism, including Morocco which “gave us a fine presentation that was very rich in substance.” Speaking to reporters later in the day in Miami, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales called international cooperation the “unsung story” in the fight to prevent nuclear terrorism. “We have to be working together.  We have to share information.  We have to be sharing best practices,” he said before reporters promptly turned the questions to the lingering scandal surrounding the firing of nine federal attorneys, which critics have called politically motivated. Back to top       Even Tiny Nuclear Explosion Could Be Terrorist “Success,” Homeland Security Scientist Says By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire MIAMI — A nuclear device assembled by terrorists is likely to have a “relatively low yield,” much smaller than the 10-kiloton weapon dropped on Hiroshima at the end of World War II, the chief nuclear scientist with the U.S. Homeland Security Department said yesterday (see GSN, May 11) Nevertheless, even a small nuclear explosion would probably be viewed as a “success” by any nonstate actor, Clyde Layne said during the first day of a weeklong nuclear terrorism conference here. “I would have to think that a 100-ton nuclear explosion would be a real success for al-Qaeda or whoever chose to attack us that way,” he said. Such a blast would be on the order of some of the largest conventional explosions ever set off and might not even bear the huge, tell-tale mushroom cloud.  It would nevertheless release the radiation associated with fission, said Layne, who works with the DHS intelligence office (see GSN, Feb. 23). Producing fissile material, either the plutonium or highly enriched uranium that would fuel any improvised nuclear device, remains out of the reach of even a sophisticated terrorist group, he said.  “Essentially the nonstate actors will need to buy or steal that material, and that is the main focus of our activities to combat nuclear terrorism.” A terrorist group with enough plutonium or uranium for a weapon could acquire the scientific and mechanical know-how to build the bomb, Layne said. “It is something that’s doable with reasonable machine shops and casting facilities,” Layne said.  “It’s not trivial but, as the intelligence community has said, it’s not an insurmountable task.” There is enough information on the Internet to piece together a workable nuclear weapon design, Layne said, describing the posted designs as “all over the map.” “Some of them are ridiculous.  Some of them have some things right,” he said. Given the technical difficulties involved, however, a device crafted in a machine shop without the testing available to nuclear weapon states is likely to produce a much smaller detonation than even the first atomic weapons.  “A successful terrorist nuclear device might be relatively low yield.  There’s no way to speculate what that yield would be,” Layne said.  “There could even be instances where first responders are aware there’s been a very large explosion, but they didn’t see the whole mushroom cloud and devastation that you’d expect from a 10-kiloton device.” Arriving at the scene, emergency personal would encounter radiation, but it is possible they would be unable to immediately determine if it was a nuclear explosion or a very large “dirty bomb” radiological dispersal device. A number of terrorist groups have the capabilities to produce a crude radiological weapon, which would combine conventional explosives with radioactive material, Layne said.  Given the relative ease of creating a dirty bomb, the fact that one has never been set off is slightly puzzling, he said. “The RDD seems to be fairly simple, so why haven’t we seen some of these?” Layne said. Back to top

Next British PM Pledges to Improve Post-Iraq Intel British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s successor yesterday addressed his strategy for avoiding intelligence failures like those that occurred in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, The Scotsman reported (see GSN, March 12). Officials in the prime minister’s office in a 2002 dossier essentially revised British intelligence reports regarding prewar Iraq’s alleged WMD efforts, according to the newspaper.  Finance Minister Gordon Brown, visiting Baghdad, said he intended to prevent repeat episodes.  Upon taking over at Downing Street, he plans to ask civil service chief Gus O’Donnell to develop new rules ensuring that ministers have no role in the publication of intelligence material. “I would like to see all security and intelligence independent of the political process and I have asked the Cabinet secretary to do that,” Brown said. “I think we can do more to reassure people both about the information and the use of the information,” he added.  “I think it’s important to learn all the lessons, just as Tony Blair has said he acted in good faith but mistakes were made.” Investigators have found no evidence since the March 2003 invasion that Iraq had existing WMD programs.  Brown said, though, he would not back away from his support for the war.  “We made the decision.  I take responsibility for that decision,” he said (James Kirkup, The Scotsman, June 12). Back to top

IAEA Chief Predicts Iranian Nuclear Progress Iran is on pace to install 8,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges by the end the year, the top U.N. nuclear official has privately told U.S. and European diplomats, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, June 11). If those machines were to operate at full capacity they could produce enough material for three nuclear weapons every year, according to nuclear experts. In a report issued last month, International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohamed ElBaradei indicated that Iran has so far installed more than 1,300 centrifuges at its underground nuclear facility near Natanz.  Also last month, ElBaradei suggested that Iran’s technical expertise has probably reached a point that Western nations might need to accept Tehran as having a uranium enrichment capacity. Some analysts believe that ElBaradei could be using worst-case scenarios to pressure the Bush administration to negotiate with Iran before the Natanz site advances further, the Times reported.  U.S. officials have said they would talk with Iran, but only after it suspends its enrichment activities. ElBaradei has exaggerated Iran’s potential, said one expert. “The Iranians would have to demonstrate that they can really make these centrifuges work,” said David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security.  “So far they have been cautious — they have run them very slowly because they don’t want to see hundreds and hundreds of them crash.” He called ElBaradei’s 8,000-centrifuge estimate “aggressive,” saying that Iran “would have a lot of work to do to get them all up and running” (David Sanger, New York Times, June 12). Meanwhile, cancellation of a meeting between IAEA officials and Iranian diplomats has implied that there is disharmony within Iran’s leadership, diplomats said yesterday. Iranian nuclear negotiator Javad Vaidi had been scheduled to meet yesterday with agency inspections chief Olli Heinonen, but canceled at the last minute, Agence France-Presse reported. Vaidi had planned to discuss improving Iranian cooperation with the agency, a move suggested May 31 during a Madrid meeting between his boss, top nuclear envoy Ali Larijani, and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana (see GSN, June 1). Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, however, stepped in to stop the diplomats from moderating his hard-line nuclear positions, AFP reported. The Iranian nuclear officials “no longer have the authority to discuss any issue,” one diplomat told AFP (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, June 12). Back to top       U.S. Wants North Korea to Come Clean on Centrifuges The Bush administration has demanded that North Korea, under its February denuclearization pledge, provide an accounting of the nearly 24 centrifuges it received from the nuclear smuggling network once led by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, June 11). “We know they acquired … close to two dozen centrifuges, P-1 and P-2 design, with P-2s being the most sophisticated,” a senior U.S. official said. Khan led an operation that sold the centrifuge designs to Iran, Libya and North Korea.  Centrifuge “cascades” could be used to produce weapon-grade uranium. North Korea also acquired aluminum tubing for centrifuges and uranium enrichment, the Times reported.  “When you put all those pieces together, it spoke to a clear intent to have basically a production-scale capability to enrich uranium,” the official said.  Pyongyang has denied having a uranium-based nuclear weapons program. There has been no progress on carrying out terms of the deal reached during six-party talks in February.  North Korean officials have said the nation must receive $25 million held by Banco Delta Asia in Macau before meeting its first commitments — to shut down the Yongbyon nuclear reactor and allow international inspectors back into the country. Washington is set to soon eliminate one obstacle to the transfer, by promising not to prosecute any institution that handles the money it has linked to illicit North Korean financial activity. A Treasury Department spokeswoman confirmed yesterday that the agency is working with Russian officials to move the money. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Pyongyang is ready to “abide” by its commitment to the first part of the deal, for which it would receive 50,000 tons of fuel oil and equivalent aid, the senior official said.  Problems could arise in the second part of the agreement, the Times reported. “When you talk about then looking at all nuclear programs, disabling and eventually dismantling all those nuclear programs in a verifiable comprehensive way, I think that’s where the assessment is less concrete,” the official said.  “I think there are a number of people who say it’s going to be very heavy lifting and it will be somewhat arduous.” North Korea might have reverse-engineered between 12 and 20 centrifuges while developing sets of hundreds or even a few thousand of the machines, said Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, lead U.S. negotiator in the nuclear standoff. “They’ve got to stop it,” he told C-SPAN.  “They’ve got to abandon the program.  And get rid of all the equipment.  And we’ll work with them on that” (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, June 12). Hill met yesterday in Washington with top South Korean negotiator Chun Young-woo, who expressed caution regarding the likelihood of a breakthrough in the financial dispute, the Associated Press reported.  “I’ll believe it when I see it,” he said. A reliable source told New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson that the matter could be concluded within the next couple days, said Richardson spokesman Gilbert Gallegos.  The former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and current Democratic presidential candidate has visited North Korea as recently as April and maintains contact with high-ranking officials in Pyongyang, AP reported (Desmond Butler, Associated Press/Time, June 12). The money is expected to move through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Russia before ending up in North Korean hands, the New York Times reported. Wachovia Bank and other institutions in the United States and China had refused to handle the money, citing a Treasury Department order in March prohibiting U.S. banks from aiding dollar transactions with Banco Delta Asia (Steven Weisman, New York Times, June 12). Back to top       SIPRI Warns of Growing Nuclear Risks The five major nuclear weapon nations are reducing their arsenals, but all have programs to modernize their remaining stocks that could produce new hurdles for nonproliferation efforts, a Swedish think tank reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 22, 2005). In its annual report on global military developments, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute counted nine nations as possessing nuclear weapons and estimated that Iran could join the group no earlier than five years from now, the Associated Press reported. The nine are China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.  Those nations together had 11,530 warheads deployed on missiles or aircraft at the start of 2007, the report estimates.  More than 10,000 of those weapons are held by the United States and Russia The continuing modernization of nuclear weapons — giving them small yields and placing them on new missiles — could increase their chances of being used, said SIPRI’s Ian Anthony. “The concern is that countries are starting to see these weapons as usable, whereas during the Cold War they were seen as a deterrent,” he said (Karl Ritter, Associated Press/Houston Chronicle, June 11). Back to top       USEC Nears Centrifuge Demonstration A U.S. company is just weeks away from demonstrating its ability to enrich uranium using centrifuges, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, April 23). USEC Inc. currently produces low-enriched uranium fuel for nuclear power plants using a decades-old gaseous diffusion process which consumes enormous amounts of electricity.  The diffusion facility, located in Paducah, Ky., is the only uranium enrichment site in the United States. Using centrifuges would consume just 5 percent of the energy the diffusion facility uses, AP reported.  Workers have been building the new facility at Piketon, Ohio. USEC hopes to demonstrate the new technology as part of an effort to persuade investors to fund the full project, said USEC spokeswoman Elizabeth Stuckle. “Investors are always more comfortable when they can kick the tires,” she said. USEC plans call for starting commercial operations in late 2009, ramping up to full capacity in 2012.  When completed, the facility would hold 11,500 centrifuges, each one 12 meters tall, AP reported. The project is critical for U.S. energy security, said steelworker union leader Dan Minter. “This must succeed.  The risk is too great of not having a viable enrichment operation," he said. "We should have learned our lesson from our dependency on foreign oil and gas.  To rely on another nation would be irresponsible” (Terry Kinney, Associated Press/Kentucky.com, June 12). Back to top

Anthrax Suit Query Directed to Florida Supreme Court The Florida Supreme Court yesterday received a request from a federal court to help answer a legal question in the lawsuit filed by the widow of one of the victims of the 2001 anthrax mailings, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 23). Following exposure to a tainted envelope at the American Media Inc. offices in Boca Raton, Robert Stevens died on Oct. 5, 2001.  A lawsuit filed by his wife, Maureen, claims that the anthrax came from the federal government and the Battelle Memorial Institute in Columbus, Ohio, and that the material was not properly secured.  The anthrax could be tracked backed to the U.S. Army’s Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md., according to the lawsuit. It is not yet known who sent the anthrax that killed five people. A federal trial judge ruled that the U.S. government and the institute failed in their duty under Florida law to safeguard the public from anthrax used in their research. The case was appealed to the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which could not find case law that would represent a controlling precedent on the issue, AP reported.  It has asked the Florida Supreme Court for assistance in the matter (Bill Kaczor, Associated Press/The Daily Comet, June 11). Back to top

Libya Pulls Back on Chemical Weapons Disposal Libya has threatened to cancel a contract this month with the United States to eliminate its small stockpile of mustard agent, Reuters reported Friday (see GSN, March 31, 2006). Tripoli in 2003 pledged to eliminate its WMD programs.  More than 1,000 metric tons of nuclear and missile equipment have since been shipped out of the country, and 3,500 munitions that could have carried chemical agent have been destroyed. Libya is still believed to possess 23 metric tons of mustard agent and 1,300 metric tons of precursor chemicals.  Under a December agreement, the United States would provide Libya with $45 million — 75 percent of the destruction cost. However, in a recent letter to the State Department, Libya cited “dissatisfaction with the U.S. refusal to pay for the entire (chemical destruction) effort as well as unacceptable legal requirements raised during contract negotiations between the private contractor (hired to do the destruction work) and the Libyan government,” one U.S. official told Reuters. The letter said Libya would pull out of the contract on June 14. Libya might simply be seeking more money, according to some experts and officials.  There might also be liability issues or questions of accountability given U.S. involvement in the project, others said. “The bottom line is, I don’t know what the Libyans are up to,” said one U.S. official. Others said they believed Tripoli is intent on eliminating its chemical stocks. “I don’t think there is any question they will get rid of the chemical agent,” another official said. U.S. officials have questioned whether the United States could afford to pay for the entire project, which would include building a special incinerator.  Defense Department officials have noted the effect the project could have on their finite threat reduction money, Reuters reported. The stored chemicals are less a proliferation danger than an environmental concern, U.S. officials said. A senior State Department official might meet soon in Vienna with a Libyan official to discuss the issue (Carol Giacomo, Reuters/Yahoo!News, June 8). Back to top

Poland Moves Closer to Missile Defense Cooperation A visit from President George Bush last week has moved Poland closer to accepting 10 U.S. missile interceptors on its soil, Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski said today (see GSN, June 11). “There was talk of an honest agreement and I hope that it will be reached,” he said, following Bush’s meeting with President Lech Kaczynski, the prime minister’s twin brother.  A requirement of any deal would be that it strengthen Polish security, he said. The prime minister also accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of “playing a game” by suggesting that the United States use a Soviet-era radar base in Azerbaijan for tracking potential missile flights, rather than installing a new radar in the Czech Republic, the Associated Press reported. “Not so long ago President Putin claimed that the installation itself was something incredibly dangerous and threatened nuclear bombs,” Kaczynski said.  “But the fact that he’s playing some sort of game is nothing new.” Moscow can not be allowed to win the fight over European missile defenses, the prime minister said. “If the Kremlin succeeds in winning, its position toward Europe would be incomparably stronger than at this moment,” he said (Ryan Lucas, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 12). Back to top

About Newswire  |  Contact National Journal  |  Re-Use Guidelines

© Copyright 2008 by National Journal Group, Inc. The material in this section is produced independently for NTI by National Journal Group, Inc. Any reproduction or retransmission, in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of the National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.