Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

    Issue for Monday, July 2, 2007

    Week in Review

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  wmd  
UNMOVIC Bids Adieu, Warns of Further Iraq Chemical Attacks Full Story
Australia Opens WMD Intelligence Center Full Story
Recent Stories

  nuclear  
U.S. Awards HEU Downblending Contract Full Story
Pakistan Removes Khan From House Arrest Full Story
Date of Korean Reactor Shutdown Not Known Full Story
Iran Open to Hearing New Nuclear Proposals Full Story
Disgraced Russian Nuclear Chief Wants U.S. Apology Full Story
Energy Department Develops New Policy to Report Nuclear Security Lapses to Congress Full Story
Vanunu Sentenced to Six Months in Jail Full Story
Recent Stories

  biological  
HHS Provides $430M for Mass Disaster Response Full Story
Former Soviet Bioweapons Expert Faces Questions About Iraq Claims, Profit Seeking Full Story
CDC Suspends Some Texas A&M Research Full Story
Recent Stories

  missile2  
Whistleblower Questions Sea-Based Radar Workmanship Full Story
Doubts Grow on European Missile Defense Full Story
Recent Stories

 

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Despite some skepticism from many areas within the international community, in hindsight, it has now become clear that the U.N. inspection system in Iraq was indeed successful to a large degree, in fulfilling its disarmament and monitoring obligations.
UNMOVIC, in its final report.


UNMOVIC leader Demitrius Perricos delivers a press briefing in late 2002 after Iraq allowed his team to re-enter the country for WMD inspections (Salah Malkawi/Getty Images).
UNMOVIC leader Demitrius Perricos delivers a press briefing in late 2002 after Iraq allowed his team to re-enter the country for WMD inspections (Salah Malkawi/Getty Images).
UNMOVIC Bids Adieu, Warns of Further Iraq Chemical Attacks

By Jon Fox
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.N. Security Council voted Friday to shut down an international WMD monitoring team, even as the U.N. inspectors hailed their prewar efforts in Iraq as a success (see GSN, June 18).

The Security Council’s vote to dissolve the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspections Commission — unanimous, except for the abstention of Russia — came more than four years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that was predicated on eliminating a WMD threat.  In the years since the invasion, U.S. inspectors have failed to turn up evidence of any active unconventional weapons programs...Full Story

U.S. Awards HEU Downblending Contract

The U.S. Energy Department has awarded a contract to begin the “downblending” of 17.4 metric tons of U.S. highly enriched uranium into fuel that can be used for nuclear power plants, the agency announced Friday (see GSN, Nov. 9, 2006)...Full Story

Pakistan Removes Khan From House Arrest

Pakistani officials have effectively ended the house arrest of Abdul Qadeer Khan, who once led the nation’s nuclear program and an international nuclear smuggling network, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, June 29)...Full Story

Current Issue Monday, July 2, 2007
wmd

UNMOVIC Bids Adieu, Warns of Further Iraq Chemical Attacks

By Jon Fox
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.N. Security Council voted Friday to shut down an international WMD monitoring team, even as the U.N. inspectors hailed their prewar efforts in Iraq as a success (see GSN, June 18).

The Security Council’s vote to dissolve the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspections Commission — unanimous, except for the abstention of Russia — came more than four years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that was predicated on eliminating a WMD threat.  In the years since the invasion, U.S. inspectors have failed to turn up evidence of any active unconventional weapons programs.

In an enormous report on UNMOVIC activities released last week, the inspection body argued that the intervening years since military forces rolled into Iraq have validated the utility of the U.N. monitoring system used there.

“Despite some skepticism from many areas within the international community, in hindsight, it has now become clear that the U.N. inspection system in Iraq was indeed successful to a large degree, in fulfilling its disarmament and monitoring obligations,” according to the report, posted to the body’s Web site.

UNMOVIC found no evidence of biological or chemical weapons activity in Iraq during inspections between November 2002 and March 2003.  After March 2003, the U.S.-led Iraq Survey Group took over inspection duties.  UNMOVIC was not responsible for looking into nuclear activities. 

The team was created as a successor to the U.N. Special Commission on Iraq, a group deployed by the Security Council following the 1991 Gulf War to investigate and destroy the surprisingly expansive chemical and biological weapons programs discovered after that conflict.  In addition, UNSCOM dismantled Iraq’s ballistic missile program.

In a joint letter addressed to the president of the Security Council, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett stated that “all appropriate steps” have been taken since 2003 to ensure all of Iraq’s unconventional weapons have been destroyed or “rendered harmless.”

The letter does not note the failure of U.S. and British inspectors to find any active WMD programs.

Despite the fact that UNMOVIC failed to find WMD activity prior to the invasion of Iraq, it was also unable to completely allay concerns.  Mistrust of Iraqi declarations became endemic, and “it became almost impossible for Iraq to provide convincing evidence that would remove doubt that even more evidence remained undisclosed,” the final report states.

In a little over three months of activity the U.N. inspection teams conducted 731 inspections at more than 400 sites, 88 or which had never before been examined.  More time would have been useful, however, the team stated in its final conclusions.

“Had UNMOVIC not been under such stringent time constraint, the inspections could have been more detailed and thorough and many issues which emerged could have been pursued to a conclusion allowing greater confidence in the inspection process,” it said.

Since leaving Iraq, UNMOVIC inspectors have analyzed satellite imagery of sites with sensitive equipment in Iraq.  UNMOVIC chief Demetrius Perricos cautioned the Security Council that there remain questions about dual-use items there.

More than 7,900 items that were at known sites in Iraq as of March 2003 are now unaccounted for, he told the 15-member council on Friday.

“Through satellite imagery, UNMOVIC has identified a number of buildings and structures that used to contain such equipment that had been demolished or damaged by 2004.  The fate of this equipment, which can be utilized for the production of small/single batches of chemical weapons or their precursors, and the fate of equipment in buildings that remained intact is unknown,” the team said in its final quarterly report.

Noting that insurgents in Iraq have recently employed industrial chemicals such as chlorine in crude bombs, Perricos warned that terrorists could obtain more toxic materials (see GSN, June 4).

“The possibility of nonstate actors getting their hands on other — more toxic agents — is real,” Perricos said in a speech before the council.

David Albright, who worked with the International Atomic Energy Agency team looking into the Iraqi nuclear program in the 1990s, called the decision to draw the curtain on UNMOVIC “shortsighted.”

Both the U.S. and the Iraqi governments were committed to eliminating the team, said Albright, now president of the Institute for Science and International Security.

On the U.S. side, he said hostility stems from the UNMOVIC position on Iraqi WMD programs in the run-up to the war and its imagery analysis following the invasion.

“They embarrassed us several times after the war,” Albright said.  UNMOVIC inspectors found that “a lot of dual-use items, whole factories, were disappearing,” during the U.S. military occupation in Iraq.  “I see it as a very vengeful move on the part of the U.S. and Iraq.”

Once UNMOVIC staff contracts expire on July 10, the more than $10 million of Iraqi oil money that paid for the 34-member staff and activities are due to revert to the Iraqi government.

It is in the U.S. interest to maintain the weapons inspection expertise at the United Nations, Albright said.  “The people will basically just be fired.”

Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert with the New America Foundation, agreed.  Rather than eliminating the entire 34-member staff, reducing the number of inspectors and creating a sort of “reservists” model could be beneficial,” he said.

Experienced inspectors could offer support and advice in Biological Weapons Convention compliance and efforts to control sensitive missile technology.  Training exercises could be one way to keep a pool of reserve inspectors occupied, Lewis said.


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Australia Opens WMD Intelligence Center


The Australian government today was scheduled to open its Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Data Center in the capital city of Canberra, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported (see GSN, June 21).

Personnel at the facility are assigned to collect information on possible terrorism threats.  The site itself houses two sophisticated laboratories for conducting forensic and scientific analysis, an Evidence Recovery Triage Unit and a mobile unit (Australian Broadcasting Corp., July 2).


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nuclear

U.S. Awards HEU Downblending Contract


The U.S. Energy Department has awarded a contract to begin the “downblending” of 17.4 metric tons of U.S. highly enriched uranium into fuel that can be used for nuclear power plants, the agency announced Friday (see GSN, Nov. 9, 2006).

The contract is part of a U.S. effort to create a fuel supply for nations facing a disruption in their own supplies.  By supplying the emergency fuel at market rates, the Bush administration hopes to discourage nations from developing their own fuel production facilities that could also be used to produce nuclear weapon materials (see GSN, Sept. 27, 2005).

“Setting up the Reliable Fuel Supply program demonstrates U.S. leadership on nonproliferation by setting aside fuel for countries to use if supplies are disrupted so that they don’t have to pursue sensitive fuel cycle programs on their own,” said William Tobey, from the department’s National Nuclear Security Administration, in a press release.

Wesdyne International, a subsidiary of Westinghouse Electric Co., received the contract.  The Tennessee firm is scheduled to begin blending down the material this year and to complete the process in 2010, ultimately creating about 290 metric tons of low-enriched uranium.

The dilution process is to be open to monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, according to the department release (National Nuclear Security Administration release, June 29).


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Pakistan Removes Khan From House Arrest


Pakistani officials have effectively ended the house arrest of Abdul Qadeer Khan, who once led the nation’s nuclear program and an international nuclear smuggling network, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, June 29).

Khan’s confinement ended several months ago, according to two senior Pakistani officials who spoke anonymously because of the case’s sensitivity.

“He is virtually a free citizen,” said one of the officials.

Khan had been placed under house arrest after he reportedly admitted to authorities that he had supplied uranium enrichment technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.

The eased restrictions over Khan’s freedom allow him to meet with government-approved family members and friends, and security forces will continue to monitor him, said the second official.

Reached at home by the Associated Press, the 71-year-old Khan said he is recovering from prostate cancer.  He did not comment on his new-found freedom.

“I am feeling much better, though I can’t say I am 100 percent fit,” he said (Munir Ahmad, Associated Press/Washington Post, July 2). 


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Date of Korean Reactor Shutdown Not Known


The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency team that visited North Korea last week said Saturday that he did not know when the nation would shut down its plutonium-producing Yongbyon nuclear reactor, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 29).

Representatives from Pyongyang and the U.N. nuclear watchdog reached an “understanding” on IAEA monitoring of the reactor shutdown, said agency safeguards chief Olli Heinonen.

“We had fruitful discussions and visits to the Yongbyon site,” he said.

Under a February agreement, North Korea is to halt operations at Yongbyon as the first step toward full dismantlement of its nuclear weapons program.  In return, it would receive energy and food aid and other benefits from the nations participating in the six-party talks.  The shutdown was originally scheduled to occur by April, but was delayed while Pyongyang waited to collect roughly $25 million that had been frozen at a bank in Macau.

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi is expected to discuss disarmament efforts during his trip beginning today to North Korea, AFP reported (Francois Bougon, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 30).

Heinonen said the next step in the process would be for officials from the six nations to consider technical specifics of closing the reactor and the economic aid that would follow, the Associated Press reported.

“The next logical step is that they talk with each other and agree on technical arrangements,” he said Saturday after returning to Beijing.  “The IAEA doesn’t have any role in that” (Alexa Olesen, Associated Press I, June 30).

The IAEA governing board is likely to meet July 9 to discuss sending an agency team to monitor the reactor shutdown, Heinonen said (Veronika Oleksyn, Associated Press II, July 1).

The head of U.S. forces in South Korea said today that North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs continue to pose a threat to the region and beyond, AP reported.

“One of the biggest threats to peace and stability is the potential capability for North Korea to couple its missile technology with its demonstrated nuclear capability,” said Gen. Burwell Bell.  “This is real, it has peninsular, regional and global implications, and we cannot and must not ignore it” (Kelly Olsen, Associated Press III/Washington Post, July 2).


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Iran Open to Hearing New Nuclear Proposals


Iranian officials expressed willingness this weekend to hear new diplomatic standoff with Tehran, Reuters reported (see GSN, June 29).

Major European powers and the United States have been discussing the possibility of dropping their demand that Iran freeze its nuclear activities before any talks can resume, according to media reports.  Instead, they might ask only that Tehran stop adding centrifuges at its uranium enrichment facility in Natanz.

Iran is willing to review all plans and proposals that guarantee Iran’s rights in the process of talks,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini.  Still, whether Iran would accept such a proposal remains unclear, as officials have in the past rejected any limits to the nation’s nuclear fuel production program, Reuters reported (Reuters/Washington Post, July 1).

Officials in Tehran have recently indicated a greater willingness to cooperate with international nuclear inspectors.  International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards chief Olli Heinonen is scheduled to visit Iran from July 11 to 13 to “examine a work plan to respond to all remaining issues over Iran’s nuclear program,” Iranian delegate to the agency Ali Asghar Soltanieh said over the weekend (see GSN, June 1; Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, June 30).

The U.N. Security Council has twice demanded that Iran freeze its uranium enrichment program as well as work on a heavy-water nuclear reactor at Arak.  Such reactors are well-suited to produce plutonium.

Soltanieh cautioned Saturday that if Iran canceled the Arak project, the nation’s centrifuge program would need to produce higher-grade fuel.

The heavy-water reactor is intended to replace a research reactor that was originally fueled with weapon-grade uranium, Soltanieh said.

“At the time, 93 percent fuel was supplied, and the next batch of fuel was 20 percent, it is not possible to go under this level,” he said.

Therefore, “if the United States and the Europeans insist that Iran not have a heavy-water reactor, they should accept that we enrich uranium to a higher level,” he added.

So far Iran has enriched small amounts of uranium to levels below 5 percent, typical of enrichment levels used for light-water nuclear power reactors (Agence France-Presse II/Australian Broadcasting Corp. , June 30).


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Disgraced Russian Nuclear Chief Wants U.S. Apology


Former Russian atomic energy chief Yevgeny Adamov on Friday demanded an apology from the United States for the “baseless accusations” that he embezzled $9 million intended to aid nuclear safety in his country, the Moscow Times reported (see GSN, Jan. 16). 

Adamov said a U.S. court essentially exonerated him Thursday when it cleared a former associate of aiding in the alleged theft of the U.S. nuclear funds.  Mark Kaushansky received a 15-month prison sentence for tax evasion.

The ruling “could not be interpreted in two ways,” Adamov’s lawyer in Russia, Genry Reznik, told Ekho Moskvy radio.  The verdict “completely rehabilitated” Adamov, he added.

Adamov is seeking to have the U.S. charges dropped, and to be compensated for legal costs and losses to his business and reputation, the Times reported.

There has been, however, no indication that the U.S. case will be dropped.  Adamov will not be tried in absentia, said a spokeswoman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Pennsylvania.

After being forced out of his post in 2001, Adamov was arrested in Switzerland in May 2005 but Russia successfully blocked his extradition to the United States.  He is still awaiting trial in Russia on charges of fraud and abuse of office (Natalya Krainova, Moscow Times, July 2).


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Energy Department Develops New Policy to Report Nuclear Security Lapses to Congress


The U.S. Energy Department has developed new guidelines for disclosing nuclear laboratory security lapses to Congress, the Associated Press reported Friday (see GSN, June 27).

The move followed complaints from U.S. lawmakers that they were learning of security breaches from outside sources and major funding cuts approved by the U.S. House of Representatives (see GSN, June 15).

In a June 22 memo to “heads of departmental elements,” Deputy Energy Secretary Clay Sell instructed laboratory officials to tell Congress about any loss of classified information or any security breakdown of classified computer networks, among other security violations.

If there were a question of whether to report or not, “the issue will be resolved in favor of reporting,” the memo says.

Two laboratory critics praised the move.

“This new DOE disclosure policy, if fully implemented, will better enable Congress to obtain the information necessary to fulfill its critical oversight responsibilities and ensure that our nation’s nuclear secrets do not fall into the wrong hands,” said House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell (D-Mich.).

“This recent memo is an indicator that parts of the DOE are listening and we commend Deputy Secretary Sell for issuing this new directive,” added Representative Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), who chairs the committee’s oversight and investigations subcommittee (Sue Major Holmes, Associated Press/Santa Fe New Mexican, June 29).


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Vanunu Sentenced to Six Months in Jail


Israeli nuclear whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu today received a six-month jail sentence for violating the terms of his earlier release from prison, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 30).

Vanunu was released from prison in 2004 after serving 18 years for passing on details of Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor to a British newspaper.  The former nuclear technician was barred from leaving the country or speaking with foreigners, but subsequently talked to reporters and tried to visit Bethlehem in the West Bank, the Jerusalem Magistrates’ Court ruled.

“Although he violated restrictions imposed on him 14 times, the court decided to be lenient and sentence him only to six months in prison,” the court said.  The maximum penalty was seven years, AFP reported.

“The accused said he considered (the restrictions) illegal,” the court added (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, July 2).


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biological

HHS Provides $430M for Mass Disaster Response


The U.S. Health and Human Services Department announced Thursday that it had issued $430 million to help hospitals and health care facilities to prepare for an act of bioterrorism other mass disaster (see GSN, April 27).

The fiscal 2007 funds are being spread among health departments in all 50 states, U.S. territories, and the New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Washington, D.C metropolitan regions.

Hospitals and other sites are to use the money on interoperable communications, systems for tracking open hospital beds, advance registration of medical professionals who could volunteer during a crisis, and fatality management and hospital evacuation planning.

The funding includes $15 million for a program of grants or cooperative agreements with health care partnerships intended to boost community and hospital preparedness.  The agency expects to issue between six and 30 agreements, with funding ranging from $500,000 to $2.5 million.

“These grants are an important addition to national security because our hospitals and other health care facilities play such a critical role in responding to a terrorist attack, an infections disease outbreak, and natural disasters,” said HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt in a press release.  “States and communities can use these funds to improve emergency care during a health crisis.”

The agency over five years has distributed more than $2 billion for local medical preparedness.  California topped the 2007 list of recipients, receiving more than $34 million.  Palau, a U.S. territory, received the least at $275,000 (U.S. Health and Human Services Department release, June 28).


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Former Soviet Bioweapons Expert Faces Questions About Iraq Claims, Profit Seeking


The reliability of a former top Soviet biological weapons scientist who defected to the United States has been called into question by his claims about prewar Iraq’s alleged WMD efforts and his efforts to profit from biodefense efforts, the Los Angeles Times reported yesterday (see GSN, April 30).

Red Army colonel and microbiologist Kanatjan Alibekov — now Ken Alibek — defected to the United States in 1992.  He provided details of the former superpower’s biological weapons program and warned that in the wake of the Soviet breakup some scientists were taking their expertise to nations such as Iraq and North Korea.  Materials such as anthrax and smallpox might also have been handed over to rogue nations, Alibek argued.

Over the years he would become a leading voice on the threats posed by biological weapons in terrorist or state hands.

“It was Alibek’s revelations, when he defected, that really provided the first information about the scope” of the Soviet program and of proliferation to Iran and Iraq, said former U.S. Army biodefense specialist Thomas Monath.

“I think he influenced many people who were in position to make decisions about response,” Monath added.  “Concern about smallpox, in particular, was driven by Alibek.”

While his description of the Soviet biological program remains appreciated in Washington — with reservations about some of his claims, such as insertion of Ebola genes into the smallpox virus — some activities in more recent years have seemed less praiseworthy.

Alibek testified before a U.S. panel in October 2001 that “attempts to wipe out Iraq’s biological weapons capability were probably not successful.”  He said during a 2003 online discussion as the U.S. invasion began that there “is no doubt in my mind that (Saddam) Hussein has WMD.”

The Bush administration promoted Iraq’s potential biological weapons program in making its case for war.  No evidence of functioning Iraqi WMD programs have turned up in the years since the invasion.

Alibek told the Times that he had “talked to people who actually visited the Iraqi sites.  And they said they had no doubt (there) was an offensive biological weapons program. … We need to look for the traces.”

Over the years Alibek has garnered roughly $28 million for his own work or for other entities that were paying him.  His name was attached to a nonprescription drug sold online — “Dr. Ken Alibek’s Immune System Support Formula.”

Alibek has also made scientific claims that have failed to survive peer review.  A 2003 press release from George Mason University in Northern Virginia, where he served on the faculty, indicated that Alibek and another scientist had led research indicating that the smallpox vaccine might boost immunity against the AIDS-causing HIV virus.  Two major medical journals refused to publish their work, which has never been reproduced.  The lead researchers are no longer working on the project.

Alibek left George Mason University in August 2006, following internal troubles related to his directorship of the National Center for Biodefense and Infectious Diseases graduate program, the Times reported.

A university spokeswoman declined to discuss details of his departure.  Alibek said it was due to the university administration’s issues with having his firm, AFG Biosolutions, share in research that received funding grants.  Rather than shutting down or exiting the company, Alibek said he chose to leave the university (David Willman, Los Angeles Times, July 1).


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CDC Suspends Some Texas A&M Research


Texas A&M University could be barred permanently from handling major disease agents if it fails to obey federal guidelines for such research, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Saturday (see GSN, June 29).

The federal health agency in a letter ordered the university to halt federally funded research on certain infectious diseases, the Associated Press reported.  The memo followed reports that the university had twice failed to promptly notify federal authorities of 2006 incidents in which researchers had been infected with potential biological weapons agents.

Federal law demands rapid reporting of any such incident.  The university waited a year to report that a researcher had been infected with brucella bacteria; it has yet to officially report the exposure of three workers to Q fever.

The letter expressed questions on the state of safety standards at Texas A&M and whether it has developed a sufficient security program.

University officials pledged to comply with a joint CDC and Department of Health and Human Services Department investigation, AP reported.  Federal investigators are scheduled to conduct interviews and check records at the school later this month.

“We plan to cooperate fully with the CDC and look forward to resolving this matter in an appropriate manner as quickly as possible, so that we can move forward in our work supporting the nation’s homeland defense initiatives,” A&M interim President Eddie Davis said in a statement.

The school has suspended one brucella laboratory researcher, AP reported.

The university has received $18 million from the federal government to host the National Center for Foreign Animal and Zoonotic Disease Defense.  It is also competing to become the home for the new National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility (see GSN, May 24).

That quest might now be over, said the head of a Texas watchdog group.

“How could any government in good conscience put an institution in A&M’s situation in charge of what’s going to be one of the largest biodefense labs in the world?” asked Edward Hammond of the Sunshine Project (Associated Press/Houston Chronicle, July 2).


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missile2

Whistleblower Questions Sea-Based Radar Workmanship


U.S. officials have begun investigating whether welders in Texas performed substandard work on the Missile Defense Agency’s floating X-band radar, the Brownsville Herald reported Saturday (see GSN, June 11).

The ocean-going radar was modeled after a semi-submersible oil rig and spent more than two years at the port of Brownsville, Texas, for part of its construction.

An informant has told federal investigators that workers at the Keppel AmFELS construction facility falsified quality control documents after doing poor work, the Herald reported.

The Missile Defense Agency has nevertheless expressed confidence in the platform’s solidity.

“[Prime contractor] Boeing and government officials have conducted comprehensive inspections on welds, weld X-rays and weld inspection processes as part of the normal required inspection process,” said agency spokesman Rick Lehner (Emma Perez-Trevino, Brownsville Herald, June 30).


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Doubts Grow on European Missile Defense


Doubts on the Bush administration’s plan for building missile defense installations in Europe are growing in Washington and in the countries that would house the systems, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, June 28).

“The U.S. clearly mismanaged this rollout,” said former Defense Department official Bruce Jackson.  “There weren’t clear talking points, there was no interagency discussion about this, and we blindsided ourselves and also blindsided the governments in question.  It’s embarrassing.”

The White House is seeking to place 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic.  Administration officials have argued that the systems would help protect Europe and the United States from long-range missiles they said are being developed in Iran.

Russian leaders have blasted the plan as a threat to their country’s strategic security.  The House of Representatives cut $160 million from the fiscal 2008 administration budget request for the project, eliminating funds for construction of the interceptor site.  The Senate could take similar action, the Times reported.

While the Czech and Polish governments have supported the plan, they face increasing opposition.  In Poland, there is widespread opinion that Washington has failed to respond to Warsaw’s troop support for the 2003 invasion of Iraq and other matters.

“There is this general idea that Poland has supported the United States in Iraq in 2003 and we got very little in return — or we got nothing in return — and we should not repeat the same mistakes we made then,” said analyst Piotr Maciej Kaczynski of the Institute for Public Affairs in Warsaw.

“This will be the first pro-American decision that I believe the Polish public will simply not take,” said former Defense Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.  “If we get nothing at all … the public and the Parliament will not forgive us.”

Sikorski has argued that Washington must provide incentives, such as boosted defense against potential threats from Russia, which threatened to aim missiles at Europe should the missile defense installations become reality.  Bringing Sikorski on board could be crucial to the success of the initiative, observers say.

More than 25 Czech communities in referendums have opposed bringing the radar base to their country.  A June survey reported that 61 percent of Czech residents oppose the plan.

“As the pressure will continue to increase on the government, I think it will reach a point where they will realize that they cannot go against the will of the majority,” said Jan Tamas, president of the Humanist Party.

The Bush administration says the fight is not finished, according to the Times.  The budget season continues, and Czech and Polish supporters have yet to make a significant push for the plan.

“I don’t think there’s been a lot of informed public discussion about this, which gives me, as someone trying to make this work, a lot of hope,” said one administration official.  “We do think we have good arguments.”

Action is needed soon, according to the White House.  Groundbreaking must occur next year if work is to be completed by 2013.  U.S. intelligence estimates are that Iran could possess long-range missiles by 2015 (Spiegel/Murphy, Los Angeles Times, July 2).

 

 


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