Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh could delay the nuclear trade deal with the United States while seeking to quell stiff domestic opposition to the pact. Parties on both ends of the political spectrum have opposed the agreement (Findlay Kember/Getty Images). India Could Delay Pursuit of U.S. Nuclear Trade Deal Hardening domestic opposition to a nuclear trade deal with the United States could force Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to postpone asking for a change to international nuclear export rules, Bloomberg reported today (see GSN, Aug. 22). Political parties on the left and right have criticized the deal, which would allow India to purchase U.S. nuclear materials and technology if New Delhi agrees to allow international inspectors to monitor its civilian nuclear activities. To take effect, the deal must receive U.S. congressional approval of details finalized last month and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group must agree to exempt India from trade guidelines that ban nuclear exports to nations that have not joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty...Full Story

China, U.K. Compete for “Fewest Nukes” Title China and the United Kingdom are at odds over which country has fewer nuclear weapons, the Federation of American Scientists reported yesterday (see GSN, July 12)...Full Story

Iran Guard Avoiding Nuclear Sanctions, Exile Says An Iranian exile told reporters yesterday that nuclear equipment and weapons are flowing into Iran through front organizations administered by the country’s Revolutionary Guard, Reuters reported (see GSN, Aug. 16)...Full Story

	Thursday, August 23, 2007

Australia Funds Terror-Response Drug Stockpile Australia plans to spend tens of millions of Australian dollars to boost its stockpile of drugs that would be needed to treat victims of a radiological “dirty bomb” explosion or another major terrorist attack, the Adelaide Advertiser reported today (see GSN, Aug. 21). Australian Prime Minister John Howard and his senior Cabinet ministers approved the funds in reviewing of the country’s ability to handle a strike inflicting large casualties. Australia’s emergency medical stores are expected to be depleted by July 2008, leaving the nation unprepared to respond medically to a terrorist attack.  The new funds would extend the country’s medical supplies past that time. Health Minister Tony Abbott is expected to announce the new funds as part of an effort by the Cabinet to shore up its national security record before national elections scheduled for January 2008 (Steve Lewis, Adelaide Advertiser, Aug. 23). Back to top

Lab Develops Game to Train Emergency Responders Emergency responders could receive help training for WMD attacks and other disasters from a computer game being developed by Sandia National Laboratories, the Bay Area News Group reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 14). In the game “Ground Truth,” players watch an animated crash between a speeding car and tanker truck that releases a blanket of chlorine gas over the middle of a city. As a green chlorine cloud spreads, players must deploy road barricades and coordinate responses by police and fire departments, hazardous materials personnel and medical workers.  Meanwhile, a ticker counting the number of deaths climbs steadily upward to the drone of menacing background music. Computer scientist Donna Djordjevich, who has led the game’s development at Sandia's Livermore campus in California for the last year, said it would help prepare emergency responders to handle real-life disasters. “They'll be more experienced than they otherwise would have been because they've played it, albeit virtually, but it's better than nothing,” Djordjevich said. Emergency response workers currently count on seminars, drills, and role-playing exercises to prepare for terrorist attacks and natural disasters.  Djordjevich called such approaches “expensive, time-consuming and just sort of cumbersome.” While the chlorine release is the only disaster in “Ground Truth” so far, the game’s development team plans to create more scenarios during the three-year project with the University of Southern California’s GamePipe Laboratory. “I'm tending to focus on these weapons of mass destruction, large-scale events,” Djordjevich said.  While it remains unclear how the completed game would perform, Djordjevich hopes to develop a simulation that could be distributed to U.S. emergency responders by the Homeland Security Department (Betsy Mason, Bay Area News Group/San Jose Mercury News, Aug. 22). Back to top

India Could Delay Pursuit of U.S. Nuclear Trade Deal Hardening domestic opposition to a nuclear trade deal with the United States could force Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to postpone asking for a change to international nuclear export rules, Bloomberg reported today (see GSN, Aug. 22). Political parties on the left and right have criticized the deal, which would allow India to purchase U.S. nuclear materials and technology if New Delhi agrees to allow international inspectors to monitor its civilian nuclear activities. To take effect, the deal must receive U.S. congressional approval of details finalized last month and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group must agree to exempt India from trade guidelines that ban nuclear exports to nations that have not joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The United States has already exempted India from many of its own nuclear nonproliferation rules (Thomas/Pradham, Bloomberg, Aug. 23). Indian parliamentary approval is not technically required for the deal to advance, but lawmakers’ opposition could threaten Singh’s leadership. On the left, one of four communist parties that have opposed the pact announced today that it would oppose Singh’s government if he pursued the deal. “We will withdraw support to the government if it goes ahead with operationalizing the agreement,” said the members of the central committee of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in a statement released after a two-day meeting. Communist parties are not a formal part of Singh’s ruling coalition, but their lack of support could nevertheless force early elections, according to AFP. The leftist groups have expressed concern that the deal would reduce India’s sovereignty by allowing too much U.S. influence over the nation’s domestic affairs. On the right, the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party has also opposed the agreement, warning that it would threaten the New Delhi’s nuclear weapons programs, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Aug. 23). One political analyst said all the parties needed more time to find a compromise solution. “The problem … is that neither side agrees with the other, but neither wants to break with the other, because that would possibly lead to the government’s fall and elections,” said analyst Pran Chopra.  “So the question over the next few days is how to find a reasonable, acceptable way of continuing to wait while the problem sorts itself out” (Henry Chu, Los Angeles Times, Aug. 23). Despite the prospect of delays, Singh yesterday expressed confidence that the deal would eventually take effect, the Associated Press reported. “It is certainly true that there is political turbulence here in New Delhi, but I am confident we will overcome it,” he said.  “As someone said, if winter comes can spring be far behind” (Rajesh Mahapatra, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Aug. 22). Back to top       China, U.K. Compete for “Fewest Nukes” Title China and the United Kingdom are at odds over which country has fewer nuclear weapons, the Federation of American Scientists reported yesterday (see GSN, July 12). “Among the nuclear-weapon states, China … possesses the smallest arsenal,” China’s Foreign Ministry said in its April 2004 fact sheet “China:  Nuclear Disarmament and Reduction of.” However, British Defense Minister Des Browne in May 2007 said in a statement to Parliament that the United Kingdom has “the smallest stockpile of any of the nuclear weapon states recognized under the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty].” The actual number of nuclear weapons in each country is classified. In December 2006, the United Kingdom said it had cut its “operationally available warheads” from under 200 to “less than 160.”  Given the probable existence of a small number of reserve weapons, the United Kingdom is likely to possess an arsenal of about 200 warheads, the federation said. U.S. intelligence assessments have estimated China to have about 150 operational nuclear warheads and a total inventory of around 200 warheads.  Only about 100 Chinese nuclear warheads might be prepared for delivery, while few to none of them might actually be mated to their delivery vehicles. China in 2004 referred to the size of its nuclear “arsenal” rather than to the total stockpile addressed in the British statement.  That leaves it unclear whether Beijing’s claim referred to the number of operational warheads or its entire stockpile (Hans Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists release, Aug. 22). Back to top       Iran Guard Avoiding Nuclear Sanctions, Exile Says An Iranian exile told reporters yesterday that nuclear equipment and weapons are flowing into Iran through front organizations administered by the country’s Revolutionary Guard, Reuters reported (see GSN, Aug. 16). “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been, consistently over the past few months, violating the United Nations resolutions 1737 and 1747, using different ways to evade the sanctions and import goods and material,” said Alireza Jafarzadeh, who was credited in 2002 with revealing accurate information about Iran’s nuclear activities. The U.N. Security Council has placed two rounds of trade restrictions on Iran for its refusal to stop uranium enrichment activities, a process that could yield a nuclear bomb ingredient. Jafarzadeh identified 15 companies he said were acting as front groups for the Revolutionary Guard, adding that current U.N. sanctions did not cover all companies supplying materials to Iran’s nuclear program. “This is alarming because we have seen an upsurge of activities of the Iranian regime in regards to a whole host of rogue activities — both stepping up their engagement in terrorism in Iraq, but specifically on the weapons of mass destruction (and) the nuclear weapons program,” he said. Jafarzadeh listed the Iranian firms Tose’eh Silo Co. and Sazeh Pardaz Co. as the entities leading construction of the Natanz nuclear facility, identified Iranian-owned companies in Dubai and Italy as collaborators in secret Iranian nuclear and weapons activities, and named other firms as Revolutionary Guard fronts. “A lot of these organizations need to be added, not only to the United Nations Security Council Resolutions … but, specifically, the United States needs to take action,” he said (Paul Eckert, Reuters I/Washington Post, Aug. 22). Meanwhile, a diplomat close to the U.N. nuclear watchdog yesterday accused a U.S. official of embarking on “a deliberate campaign to derail” the agency’s nuclear negotiations with Iran, Reuters reported (see GSN, Aug. 22). Gregory Schulte, the U.S. envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, yesterday criticized a timeline agreed to by Iranian and IAEA officials for clarifying the country’s nuclear intentions. Schulte’s comments were “very unhelpful,” the diplomat said.  “Such immediate downplaying of this development of this development is disingenuous.” “To expect Iran now to comply on the whole package of demands by the Security Council, all at once, when they remain under sanctions, is unrealistic,” the diplomat said. French officials said Iran could not stave off a new round of sanctions with the cooperation it has shown to IAEA officials so far. “Iran must accept a suspension of its sensitive activities, failing which the international community will have no option but to maintain its attitude of firmness, including by passing a third sanctions resolution,” said French Foreign Ministry spokesman Denis Simonneau. Iran continues to have the upper hand over the West in the nuclear standoff, said Gary Samore, an analyst for the Council on Foreign Relations. “The U.S. is bogged down in Iraq, other big powers are loath to impose significant economic penalties on Iran.  But Iran will have to do enough so this process doesn't look like a charade, and make it hard for Russia to argue it should be given time,” he said (Mark Heinrich, Reuters II/Washington Post, Aug. 22). Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday said that international efforts to stop Iran’s nuclear program were going nowhere and urged other countries to allow Tehran to develop nuclear power sources, the Associated Press reported. “Our aim in developing nuclear technology is the improvement of the well being and living standards of our people,” he said during a visit to Azerbaijan. “Certain forces … want to deprive our people of this right,” he added.  “They resort to any methods — economic, psychological and military pressure.  But despite this, they have achieved nothing.  Iran has legally created nuclear technology.” "It would be good if those forces that are hindering us would understand our words and begin to respect the rights of other peoples," Ahmadinejad said. U.S. officials have continued to press the U.N. Security Council to place a third round of sanctions against Iran failing to stop uranium enrichment and its construction of a reactor that would produce plutonium (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Aug. 22). Back to top       U.S.-North Korean Talks Reportedly Set for Next Week Senior officials from the United States and North Korea are expected to meet for two days next week to discuss normalizing diplomatic relations between the two nations, the Yonhap News Agency reported (see GSN, Aug. 22). The session, a working-level meeting linked to the six-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear program, is scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday in Geneva, a source said. A February agreement between the six nations called for five working groups, each addressing a different issue that diplomats hope can propel North Korea toward giving up its nuclear program.  Other recent meetings have addressed issues such as energy aid for Pyongyang and security in Northeast Asia. The top nuclear negotiators from the United States and North Korea, Christopher Hill and Kim Kye Gwan, are expected to attend next week’s meetings.  Both men were in New York in March for the first diplomatic normalization talks (see GSN, March 6) Yonhap News Agency, Aug. 23). Back to top       DOE Approves Design Work for New Y-12 Plant The Y-12 nuclear weapons facility in Tennessee has received the go-ahead from the U.S. Energy Department to design a new uranium processing center that could cost $3.5 billion, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Dec. 20, 2004). The plant, if built, would become Y-12’s primary nuclear weapons parts production site, consolidating “operations from 60-year-old facilities with outdated equipment into a new facility,” said National Nuclear Security Administration spokesman Steven Wyatt. It would “replace the heart of the Y-12 manufacturing complex,” he said.  The project must undergo multiple reviews before construction could begin, and then might not begin operations until 2018.  It would constitute the top upgrade at Y-12 in the history of the complex created during the Manhattan Project of World War II, AP reported. The new facility is presently expected to cost between $1.4 billion and $3.5 billion, at least partly due to “significant consideration for ‘unknowns’ and risk,” Wyatt said. Plans call for placing the facility alongside a $549 million uranium storage warehouse scheduled for completion around 2009 or 2010. Y-12 holds much of the United States’ weapon-grade uranium and supplies the material for all U.S. nuclear weapons (Duncan Mansfield, Associated Press/WKRN.com, Aug. 23). Back to top       NATO Monitors Testing of New Russian Submarine NATO is using ships and submarines from alliance nations in an effort to collect information about Russia’s new Amur-class stealth submarine during its tests in the Baltic Sea, the London Telegraph reported today (see GSN, Aug. 20). The heightened monitoring efforts to some degree served as a response to Russia’s announcement last week that it would begin sending long-range strategic bombers on regular missions near NATO airspace for the first time since the end of the Cold War. In recent weeks, Russian nuclear-capable Tu-95 bombers have entered striking range of a U.S. airbase on the Pacific island of Guam and approached British airspace off of Scotland on two occasions, leading the Royal Air Force to scramble fighter jets in response. The Amur-class submarine can fire torpedoes or missiles at surface vessels. In addition to adding the submarine to its own fleet, it is believed that Russia has agreed to export the submarine to Venezuela and other nations (Harding/Blair, London Telegraph, Aug. 23). Back to top       Southeast Asian Nations Set Up Nuclear Safety Board The Association of Southeast Asian Nations agreed today to continue exploring the growth of nuclear power in the region, rebuffing one activist group’s efforts to discourage interest in nuclear energy, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, July 30). Energy ministers from members of the regional forum established the ASEAN Nuclear Energy Safety Sub-Sector Network.  The decision is one of many energy exploration issues addressed in a joint communique released from today’s meeting in Singapore. The environmental group Greenpeace has questioned whether regional nations — such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam — that have expressed interest in building nuclear power plants have the technical skills to operate the plants safely.  In addition, the group has argued that new facilities would create new nuclear weapon proliferation concerns, AFP reported. “This is a very dangerous pathway if it is followed,” Greenpeace campaigner Nur Hidayati told reporters.  “This is not a solution because it creates more problems and it will last a long time” (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Aug. 23). Back to top

WHO Urges Global Cooperation on Disease, WMD Threats The nations of the world must work together to counter the growing threats posed by new diseases and weapons of mass destruction, the World Health Organization said in a report issued yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 18, 2005). Disease outbreaks, food-borne illnesses, and the intentional or accidental release of biological, chemical or nuclear material are among the threats facing the world today, the organization said in its World Health Report 2007. The report offers six recommendations for countering these dangers, including global enactment of revamped International Health Regulations; sharing of medical expertise, technology and material, including laboratory disease research samples; and worldwide collaboration on monitoring and responding to potential epidemics. “Given today’s universal vulnerability to these threats, better security calls for global solidarity,” WHO Director General Margaret Chan said in a press release. One or more diseases have been identified annually since the 1970s, a rate the report calls “unprecedented,” Agence France-Presse reported.  Older diseases such as influenza, malaria and tuberculosis remain virulent. The report states that trade and passenger air travel reduce the likelihood that health threats could be limited to one nation.  Meanwhile, there are “serious gaps, particularly in health services in many countries,” in the international capability to ward off these threats, it says. Detection of epidemics, new diseases, and acts of biological terrorism would rely on strong health and medical care systems, according to the report. “It would be extremely naive and complacent to assume that there will not be another disease like AIDS, another Ebola, another SARS, sooner or later,” it says (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 23). Back to top

U.S. Conducts Missile Tracking Test The U.S. Missile Defense Agency today conducted the first of two planned 2007 tests of a satellite designed to study the heat produced by ballistic missiles, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 27). The satellite, the Near Field Infrared Experiment (NFIRE), was orbited in April, and the agency conducted the systems first tracking test early this morning by launching an unarmed Minuteman 2 missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, according to agency spokesman Rick Lehner. The test is intended to allow researchers to study the missile’s exhaust plume.  Collected data would aid updates of models and simulations used to develop of missile defense technology, Lehner said in a statement. Technical troubles had forced the agency to postpone the $25 million launch on multiple occasions, AP reported. The agency plans to conduct the next NFIRE test in October (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Aug. 23). Back to top

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