International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammed ElBaradei, shown in July, today defended his agency’s plan for resolving concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear activities (Tengku Bahar/Getty Images). ElBaradei Defends Nuclear Plan With Iran By Greg Webb Global Security Newswire VIENNA — The world’s top nuclear official today defended his controversial plan to resolve international concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions (see GSN, Sept. 5). Mohamed ElBaradei, chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, responded to recent criticism — from the United States, other Western nations and even nongovernmental nonproliferation advocates who normally back the agency — that an agreement reached last month capitulated to Iranian demands (see GSN, Aug. 22). “This is the first time that Iran has agreed on a plan to address all outstanding issues, with a defined timeline, and is therefore an important step in the right direction,” he told a meeting of the agency’s governing board, which began its quarterly session here today...Full Story

Al-Qaeda Leadership Said Growing in Strength Al-Qaeda’s central leadership has revitalized its organization after suffering heavy losses following the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, July 26)...Full Story

TB Case Sheds Light on Security Gaps, Report Says The U.S. failure to prevent a man infected with tuberculosis from leaving the country in May illustrates numerous security vulnerabilities to other biological threats, according to a congressional report issued today (see GSN, June 20)...Full Story

	Monday, September 10, 2007

Al-Qaeda Leadership Said Growing in Strength Al-Qaeda’s central leadership has revitalized its organization after suffering heavy losses following the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, July 26). Referred to as al-Qaeda Central by intelligence analysts, al-Qaeda’s central organization led by Osama bin Laden has reconstituted itself by drawing from its experience surviving attacks from enemies that have included the Soviet military, the Saudi royal family and the CIA, said counterterrorism officials in Pakistan, Europe and the United States. After the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks deprived al-Qaeda of its safe haven in the country, the organization regrouped around the Pakistani border city of Peshawar.  U.S. and Pakistani authorities caught many high-level al-Qaeda leaders in the first years following the Afghanistan invasion, but no top level operatives have been detained or killed in the last 18 months. To recoup from its leadership losses, al-Qaeda Central promoted bin Laden loyalists who had years of experience, and the organization resumed fundraising, recruiting and training efforts.  It also boosted propaganda operations. Al-Qaeda’s core leadership is now organized much as it was before 2001.  A shura, or leadership council, meets periodically and reports some of its major decisions to bin Laden for approval, said one senior U.S. intelligence official. The core organization is made up of about 200 people, many of whom receive regular salaries, said another U.S. intelligence official. “They do appear to meet with a frequency that enables them to act as an organization and not just as a loose bunch of guys,” said the second official. The group’s operatives are assigned to isolated cells that carry out separate organizational functions, such as fundraising or logistics.  To safeguard against infiltration, operatives often know the identities of only a few other members, said Pakistani officials. While most of the leaders are based in Pakistan, they often travel to Afghanistan and sometimes to Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Africa and the Caucasus region. Intelligence and counterterrorism officials did not immediately realize that al-Qaeda Central was making a comeback, the Post reported. Today, however, officials in Pakistan, Europe and the United States say that the invasion of Afghanistan did not hinder al-Qaeda’s ability to coordinate operations around the world as much as they had once believed.  According to recent investigations, al-Qaeda’s leadership directly ordered sleeper cells in Saudi Arabia in 2003 to carry out a series of car bombings and assassination attempts that the Saudi government has only recently begun to halt. According to court testimony and interviews, bin Laden’s subordinates instructed operatives to attack a Tunisian synagogue in 2002, a British consulate in 2003 and London’s transit system in 2005. U.S. officials attributed other failed attacks to al-Qaeda, including a plan to blow up flights from the United Kingdom to the United States in August 2006. “All this business about them being isolated or cut off is whistling past the graveyard,” said Michael Scheuer, a former CIA analyst who led a unit assigned to track bin Laden.  “We're looking at an organization that is extraordinarily adept at succession planning.  They were built to survive, like the Afghans were against the Russians” (Craig Whitlock, Washington Post, Sept. 9). Back to top       Virginia Conducts Three-Day Terrorism Drill The Virginia National Guard cooperated with civilian and military authorities in a three-day exercise simulating a series of terrorist attacks around the Washington, D.C. region, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported Saturday (see GSN, Aug. 13). The exercise, which involved more than 300 Virginia Guard soldiers, began with explosions destroying the Woodrow Wilson Memorial Bridge and a pipeline in Fairfax County, Va.  Next came the detonation of a radiological “dirty bomb.” The attacks forced the faked closure of school and federal offices and caused major traffic problems on already congested roadways. Fifty uniformed soldiers and a few civilians in one room worked at laptop computers to analyze the developing situation and send assistance to areas where it was needed. “I'm 100 percent convinced that when the next (terrorist) event happens, it will be right up here,” Maj. Gen. Robert Newman Jr., the Virginia National Guard's commander, told soldiers last week at Fort Belvoir. “Lives are going to be at stake when you come on duty,” he said. “Vigilant Guard” was designed to assess the Guard’s ability to work alongside various federal, state and local agencies during a homeland security crisis.  The $1 million exercise involved military and civilian personnel in Richmond and at Fort Belvoir, Fort Pickett and Fort A.P. Hill. “We had some coordination issues,” said state Guard Col. Tom Wilkinson.  “That's the point, so we don't have to do it for real and find we've got problems” (Peter Bacque, Richmond Times-Dispatch, Sept. 8). Back to top

ElBaradei Defends Nuclear Plan With Iran By Greg Webb Global Security Newswire VIENNA — The world’s top nuclear official today defended his controversial plan to resolve international concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions (see GSN, Sept. 5). Mohamed ElBaradei, chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, responded to recent criticism — from the United States, other Western nations and even nongovernmental nonproliferation advocates who normally back the agency — that an agreement reached last month capitulated to Iranian demands (see GSN, Aug. 22). “This is the first time that Iran has agreed on a plan to address all outstanding issues, with a defined timeline, and is therefore an important step in the right direction,” he told a meeting of the agency’s governing board, which began its quarterly session here today. The work plan is intended to resolve outstanding questions about Iran’s past nuclear activities.  In 2003, Tehran acknowledged concealing nuclear activities for nearly two decades and promised to cooperate with agency efforts to understand the program’s history. The agency, however, has regularly complained of Iran’s poor cooperation.  Late last month, ElBaradei reported to the board that “the agency remains unable to verify certain aspects relevant to the scope and nature of Iran’s nuclear program.” The new plan calls for a sequential set of disclosures from Iran about seven sets of issues.  Each issue is to be resolved in succession, not simultaneously, leading to the possibility that an early snag could delay the entire process. Issues requiring resolution include, among others, clarifying the full scope of Iranian efforts to develop two types of uranium enrichment centrifuges; explaining Iran’s possession of a document describing how to shape uranium into hemispheres that would only be useful for nuclear weapons; and detailing the source of highly enriched uranium found in some equipment. The agreement also says the seven issues comprise the entirety of the agency’s concerns and that no other matters need to be explained.  “These modalities cover all remaining issues and the agency confirmed that there are no other remaining issues and ambiguities regarding Iran’s past nuclear program and activities,” the plan says. That assertion has drawn fire from nonproliferation expert David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security. “This is a sweeping statement that sets an unfortunate precedent regarding Iran’s past nuclear activities, about which little is known in important areas,” says a recent ISIS statement. The IAEA-Iran agreement also appears to limit the number of questions the agency would be allowed to ask and to require that no questions be submitted after Feb. 15. “The agency agreed to provide Iran with all remaining questions according to the above work plan,” it says.  “This means that after receiving the questions, no other questions are left.” That language also drew Albright’s criticism. “The document’s language appears to reflect an effort by Iran to preclude the IAEA raising questions in the future about inconsistencies or troubling developments in its nuclear program,” says his statement. Ambassador Gregory Schulte, head of the U.S. delegation at this week’s board meeting, also criticized the deal but expressed support for the agency’s goals of understanding Iran’s past nuclear behavior. “Cooperation that is partial, conditional and only promised in the future is not enough,” he told reporters today.  “Cooperation that gives Iran the wherewithal to build nuclear weapons is not enough.” “If Iran’s leaders truly want the world’s trust, rather than slow-rolling the IAEA they will start to cooperate fully and unconditionally and suspend activities of international concern,” he added. ElBaradei today said with Iranian cooperation the work plan could provide invaluable data about the country’s past nuclear activities.  He also encouraged Tehran to implement its Additional Protocol to the nuclear safeguards agreement with the agency. Iran has signed but not ratified the protocol, which would enable the agency to cast a wider net for nuclear information.  Iran voluntarily adhered to the protocol before suspending that cooperation last year to protest U.N. Security Council efforts to impose economic sanctions against the nation. To abide by the protocol, Iran would need to “include access to locations, documents and individuals, as well as answers to all questions the agency may need to ask in order to reach a technical conclusion on a particular issue,” ElBaradei said. Responding to U.S. and Western criticism of the plan, ElBaradei also lashed out last week. "There have been back-seat drivers putting in their 5 cents saying this is not a good working arrangement,” he told Reuters and other wire services Friday. "Iran can never get a pass (on their nuclear behavior) until we decide to give them a pass.  They may say (in public statements) that their file is now closed, but that is up to us. "My advice is to bear with us until we go through this process ... We have a timeline which will enable us by November-December to check clearly whether Iran is ready to work with us in good faith, or whether, as some like to say, Iran is just buying time ... which would absolutely backfire (for them)." ElBaradei also warned Washington to resist making any short-notice decisions. "We don't see based on evidence we have that (Iran poses) a clear and present danger requiring you to go beyond diplomacy." he said   “I see war drums (being beaten) by those basically saying the short solution is to bomb Iran, which makes me shudder because the rhetoric reminds me of pre-Iraq war.” U.S. State Department spokesman Tom Casey objected to that characterization in a Friday press briefing. “People speak in interesting language all the time.  I would certainly hope that those kinds of comments wouldn't be referring to the United States because they certainly wouldn't be true,” he said.  “Look, I think the United States, first and foremost, appreciates the efforts that the IAEA has made in trying to help us all answer those questions that exist about Iran's nuclear program.” Today, ElBaradei reaffirmed his call for all sides to step back and allow time for diplomacy to work. “A double time-out of all enrichment-related activities and of sanctions could provide breathing space for negotiation to be resumed,” he said.  “The earlier we move from confrontation and distrust to dialogue and confidence building, the better for Iran and for the international community.” For their part, Iranian leaders over the weekend reaffirmed their intention to press forward with nuclear plans they describe as entirely peaceful. “The Iranian nation has no atomic bomb and has no plans to create this deadly weapon,” Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said yesterday in a speech to a group of Revolutionary Guards, the Associated Press reported. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad voiced a similar refrain, although with harsher rhetoric. “The Iranian people have climbed over difficult mountain passes on their path of progress.  The enemies need to step aside from our path and give up their satanic ideas,” he said yesterday, Agence France-Presse reported. “One or two countries are refusing to accept that Iran is now mastering nuclear technology,” he added.  “Some countries are racing towards hell.  But this makes us sad and, for the good of their people, we will resist." Back to top       U.S. Team Prepares to Enter North Korea A team of experts from the United States today was preparing to join their Chinese and Russian counterparts on a five-day inspection of North Korean nuclear sites, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 7). The U.S. officials arrived today in South Korea and are expected to cross into North Korea tomorrow. “The purpose (of my visit to North Korea) is to survey the nuclear sites,” said delegation chief Sung Kim.  He was scheduled to meet today with deputy South Korean nuclear negotiator Ling Sung-nam. Pyongyang appears to be trying to begin meeting its pledge to declare and disable its nuclear complex by allowing the inspection by the three nations, according to AP. Inspections are expected to cover a 5-megawatt reactor, a nuclear fuel fabrication facility and a reprocessing site at the Yongbyon nuclear complex.  North Korea closed the site under international monitoring earlier this summer, the first step in meeting its commitments under a February denuclearization deal. Talks between the nuclear experts and North Korean officials are expected to cover “the scope and technical feasibility of specific actions” of nuclear disablement, according to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill.  The United States has sought to have that occur this year (Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 10). South Korea’s chief nuclear negotiator said today he would like to see the process finished next year, Bloomberg reported. “The biggest challenge is to work out the elimination of fissile materials, including the existing plutonium, as well as the explosive devices,” said Chun Young-woo.  This should occur “before the end of 2008, hopefully by the summer of 2008.” He also explained the reason why Japan and South Korea — the other two nations involved in the six-party talks — were not sending experts to North Korea this week. “South Korean and Japanese experts do not need to be there because we wanted the experts from nuclear nations, who would know what they are looking at,” Chun said.  “We will hear from these experts after they return from their visit” The next round of full negotiations is expected to be held this month (Heejin Koo, Bloomberg, Sept. 10). Back to top

TB Case Sheds Light on Security Gaps, Report Says The U.S. failure to prevent a man infected with tuberculosis from leaving the country in May illustrates numerous security vulnerabilities to other biological threats, according to a congressional report issued today (see GSN, June 20). Atlanta attorney Andrew Speaker’s unchallenged trip to Europe reflects a lack of reliable means for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to bar carriers of dangerous biological agents from entering or leaving the country, said the report by the Democratic staff of the House Homeland Security Committee. The U.S. government has investigated how to best track and contain biological agents as a part of its wider antiterrorism strategy since the Sept. 11 attacks, the Associated Press reported. “How we address these gaps now will serve as a direct predictor of how well we will handle future events, especially those involving emerging, re-emerging, and pandemic infectious diseases,” the report said. “If we can’t counter [tuberculosis], how can we counter terrorism?” asked Representative Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.). The report found that while public health officials raised alarms about Speaker’s condition, delays in notification and convoluted reporting systems within government agencies enabled the attorney to fly from Atlanta to Europe for his wedding and honeymoon. After Speaker arrived in Europe, CDC officials barred him from returning to the United States because the agency did not have necessary equipment to safely carry him on an airplane for longer than eight hours. CDC officials asked the Transportation Security Administration to add Speaker to its “no-fly” list.  However, it took four hours for his name to be placed on the list, AP reported. Speaker ultimately returned to the United States through Canada in spite of orders to U.S. Customs and Border Patrol officials to stop him from re-entering the country.  The officer who allowed Speaker to enter has since retired following 18 years in the service. “This was a real world incident and there was a breakdown at the intersection of homeland security and public health,” Thompson said.  “The government has numerous plans and policies in place to secure our communities, but they just didn't follow the playbook.” The Centers for Disease Control is preparing its own review of the incident, said spokesman Tom Skinner (Eileen Sullivan, Associated Press/Google News, Sept. 9). Back to top       Boston to Conduct Drug Distribution Drill More than 23,000 residences in Boston are expected to receive empty cardboard boxes on Sept. 23 during a drill testing the city’s ability to quickly distribute antibiotics following an anthrax attack, the Boston Globe reported Friday (see GSN, June 25). This would be the third such exercise involving police, health officials and the U.S. Postal Service.  Similar drills have been conducted in Seattle and Philadelphia. Using results from the drill, officials aim to learn how to best distribute medicine during a public health emergency. “We feel that it is a way to get an initial push of life-saving medications out to residents on a very fast basis and allaying, hopefully, any sense of panic among the public,” said John Jacob, acting director of Boston’s Public Health Preparedness Office. Boston and other large cities have been developing means to combat attacks using deadly biological agents such as anthrax, plague and tularemia since the Sept. 11 attacks and subsequent anthrax mailings that killed five people (see GSN, July 18).  Antibiotics are often very effective in treating infections involving such bacteria if patients receive the drugs within 48 hours of exposure. “Normally, we prefer to have a health professional do it, but when we're dealing with the prospect that there could be thousands or tens of thousands of deaths and speed could mitigate that, for me and many of my colleagues, the ethical calculus is pretty clear,” said William Raub, science adviser to U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt. Cities plan to respond to biological attacks by setting up sites in community centers and schools for distributing drugs.  Boston would open 30 such centers around the city.  As opening the distribution points would take some time, however, public health officials have become interested in having Postal Service personnel deliver initial supplies of antibiotics (Stephen Smith, Boston Globe, Sept. 7). Back to top       Progress Reported in Experimental Ricin Vaccine Mice treated with an experimental ricin vaccine survived inhalation or ingestion of the biological toxin, the Dallas Morning News reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 31, 2006). Researchers at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas have already found that the vaccine provides protection against the injected form of ricin.  However, terrorists are more likely to deliver the deadly castor bean-derived poison by spraying it into the air or on to food. The vaccine has also been proven to produce an immune system response in humans.  Additional research is planned. The latest study was published recently in the journal Vaccine (Sue Goetinck Ambrose, Dallas Morning News, Sept. 9). Back to top

U.N. Names Panel to Investigate Substance in Office The United Nations on Friday assigned three investigators to determine how a substance first thought to be a chemical weapons agent came to be stored by the U.N. weapons inspection office, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 6). The material is believed to have been taken in 1996 from the remains of an Iraqi chemical weapons site.  Rather than going to a chemical laboratory, the substance more than a decade ago ended up at U.N. administrative offices, according to police. It was found Aug. 24 in the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission office, marked only with an inventory number that referred to records indicating it might be phosgene, a World War I chemical warfare agent. Workers evacuated from the New York office and hazardous materials crews removed the substance for laboratory analysis.  Police and U.N. officials said Thursday that the substance appeared to be a nontoxic cleaning solvent. “(The panel) will be tasked with ascertaining the circumstances under which the substances in question were brought to U.N. headquarters, the reasons why the items were discovered only recently and the safety procedures in place and the extent to which they were followed,” said U.N. spokeswoman Michele Montas. The team plans to submit its report on the incident next month to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon (Justin Bergman, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Sept. 7). Back to top       Qatar to Aid Chemical Weapons Convention Efforts Qatar has agreed to help other Chemical Weapons Convention member nations in the Middle East meet their obligations under the international pact, Gulf News reported Friday (see GSN, April 27). The request for assistance came from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the convention’s monitoring body, said Brig. Gen. Hasan Al Ali. “Qatar is in the forefront with regard to the fulfillment of the convention’s conditions and we have been asked to provide other countries in the region with advice and help to complete implementation,” said Al Ali, chairman of the Qatar’s National Committee for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Each state party must designate a national authority to oversee treaty implementation and enact laws and administrative guidelines to put the pact’s requirements into place within the nation. Legislation recently passed in Qatar bans production or trade of chemical weapons.  Al Ali also leads a committee charged with overseeing the country’s adherence to treaties on biological, chemical, nuclear and conventional weapons, along with nuclear testing and antipersonnel mines. “Our work envisages coordination with regional and international agencies.  We have six subcommittees tasked with following up on the implementation of each treaty,” he said. Al Ali said Qatar would not press additional nations in the region to join the Chemical Weapons Convention.  Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon and Syria are among the 13 nations that have not joined the pact (Barbara Bibbo’, Gulf News, Sept. 7). Back to top

U.S. to Send Officials to Azerbaijan, Putin Says Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that the United States plans to send a team of military officials to Azerbaijan to inspect a radar facility that could be used as a missile defense site (see GSN, Sept. 7). Putin made the announcement after meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush in Sydney, Australia, the Financial Times reported. The trip to the Gabala radar has been set “in principle,” according to a senior White House official. Putin and other Russian leaders have loudly opposed U.S. plans to deploy a radar base in the Czech Republic and 10 missile interceptors in Poland.  While Washington says its European missile defense plans are aimed at Iran, Moscow has called them a threat to its strategic security.  Moscow has offered the Gabala site and another facility in southern Russia as alternatives to the Czech radar.  U.S. deputy national security adviser Jim Jeffrey said, though, that the experts would be looking at the role the Russian-operated radar could play in a “continent-wide missile defense system” (Andrew Ward, Financial Times, Sept. 8). Putin expressed hope today that Russia and the United States could resolve their dispute over the missile defense plan, Interfax reported. “There is still time, and we are optimistic,” he said. “We can start a confrontation and rattle the saber or we can seek compromises and reach agreements.  We would prefer the latter,” Putin added (Interfax, Sept. 10). Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on Saturday reaffirmed his opposition to the U.S. plan, Reuters reported. “From my point of view, the missile defense system is politically dangerous.  It is perceived as an attempt to isolate Russia, which is not in Europe’s political interests,” he said while promoting a book in Moscow. “It is Germany’s responsibility … to persuade the United States to abandon these plans,” Schroeder added (Reuters/Moscow Times, Sept. 10). Back to top

LAPD Helicopter to Get Radiation Detector The Los Angeles Police Department is using part of a $3 million federal grant to equip a helicopter with a detector capable of detecting a radiological “dirty bomb” brought into the city, the Los Angeles Times reported yesterday (see GSN, June 13). The department also used a portion of the Homeland Security money to buy six hand-held detectors to be carried by officers. The device to be placed on an LAPD helicopter is the size of a suitcase and capable of detecting gamma rays from potential radiological weapons at a range of 800 feet, according to Police Chief William Bratton. “Terrorism is all about getting them before they get us,” he said (Richard Winton, Los Angeles Times, Sept. 9). Meanwhile, the New York Police Department by the end of 2007 plans to start purchasing equipments for its “ring of steel” security system, the New York Daily News reported yesterday. The system would include license plate readers, roadway barriers and hundreds of cameras intended to protect the lower Manhattan financial district from a terrorist attack.  The department plans to gradually put it into place in 2008. A system of radiation detectors around the city is being developed alongside the “ring of steel” (see GSN, June 14).  The detectors would be deployed at all major entryways into the city, at distances of up to 50 miles (Alison Gendar, New York Daily News, Sept. 9). Police officers in Suffolk County on Long Island, N.Y., are set to receive more than 100 small radiation detectors, Newsday reported Friday. The New York Police Department is providing the detectors, which are capable of detecting radioactive substances inside passing vehicles.  The devices, which could be worn on belts, would be an addition to 400 older detectors now in use in the county. Terrorists could use Suffolk County as a storage or transportation site for radioactive weapons material on its way to New York City, officials said. “Every avenue into New York City has got to be covered, and covered thoroughly,” said Suffolk police Special Patrol Bureau commander Deputy Inspector Stuart Cameron (Christine Armario, Newsday, Sept. 7).   Back to top

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