Israel in June conducts an exercise in preparation for a potential attack on Syria. Israel has been gathering intelligence indicating that Syria is building a nuclear facility with support from North Korea (Israeli Defense Force/Getty Images). North Korea, Syria Possibly Building Nuclear Installation Satellite images and other intelligence acquired by the United States over the last six months has suggested to some U.S. officials that North Korea might be helping to build a nuclear installation inside Syria, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Sept. 12). Provided largely by Israel, the intelligence has been restricted to a handful of high-level officials under orders from national security adviser Stephen Hadley, leaving other members of the U.S. intelligence community unsure of its implications, according to sources. Some satellite images indicate development of a plant for production of material that could be used in nuclear weapons, according to some U.S. officials. Some of the sources expressed skepticism that North Korea and Syria would work together on nuclear development although they have collaborated in the past on missile programs.  They warned that analysts frequently re-evaluate early indications of unusual activity...Full Story

Experts Wrap up North Korea Inspection Inspections this week of North Korea’s nuclear complex were “useful,” the head of the U.S. team said today (see GSN, Sept. 12)...Full Story

Bill Sets 2017 Deadline for Chem Weapons Disposal An amendment approved yesterday by the Senate Appropriations Committee requires the U.S. Defense Department to complete disposal of chemical weapons stored in Colorado and Kentucky by the end of 2017, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 12)...Full Story

	Thursday, September 13, 2007

Blair Wanted to Avoid Iraq War, U.K. Envoy Says British envoy David Manning said yesterday that former Prime Minister Tony Blair had hoped to see Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein deposed without military intervention in Iraq, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, June 12). Blair “was always in favor of regime change, but that did not mean he always wanted regime change through military means,” said Manning, who was Blair’s foreign policy adviser before the 2003 invasion of Iraq and now serves as British ambassador to the United States.  “He must have known it might come to military action, but I have always believed he hoped and probably believed there was a way of getting there by using the U.N. to put pressure on Saddam,” Manning told New Statesman magazine. “I don't think he ever wanted to go by the military route.” Manning said that in late 2002, Blair told U.S. President George W. Bush that invasion might be avoidable if top U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. “He believed the WMD story,” Manning said, dismissing claims that the United Kingdom and the United States had devised claims of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction to justify invading the country. “Was it wrong?  Yes.  But the idea that he somehow sat down and confected this story and that was the justification for the policy he opted for is not true,” Manning said (David Stringer, Associated Press/Google News). Back to top       Defense Dept. Board Pushes $4B WMD Protection Plan The U.S. Defense Department should devote $4 billion each year to a “full spectrum” WMD protection program for the United States, an advisory panel said in a report made public last month (see GSN, Jan. 26, 2005). The Defense Science Board task force made the recommendation in a May 2007 report.  The 66-page document included recommendations to reduce chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons threats by improving intelligence collection, formulating new retaliation policies, developing disaster mitigation and response capabilities, improving efforts to deny U.S. enemies access to weapons of mass destruction and creating a Pentagon pilot program to develop plans for responding to catastrophes. “These recommendations reflect opportunities for the nation that are very high payoff at relatively low cost,” the report says.  “Yet, despite the high payoff and low cost, the task force found no evidence that these efforts are being aggressively pursued.” In order to improve intelligence, the task force called for the national intelligence director and defense undersecretary for intelligence to monitor “key individuals and entities with WMD expertise and their links to radical states and groups,” and also “increase fielding of deep penetration intelligence programs.” The United States should “strengthen and broaden international cooperative efforts in nonproliferation” and “remove easy access” to U.S. chemical and radiological substances that could be used in an attack, the report said. The panel also recommended developing U.S. tactical forensics capabilities and establishing a “WMD-retaliation planning structure to develop military options” for retaliation. A counter-WMD czar is needed within the executive branch, the panel said. “The task force believes that one single individual must be charged with this responsibility — someone who is positioned to see the whole WMD picture and who can provide the president an assessment of the nation’s capabilities and readiness to address the threat from WMD.  Today, no one has that visibility,” the board said (Jason Sherman, Inside Missile Defense, Sept. 12). Back to top

North Korea, Syria Possibly Building Nuclear Installation Satellite images and other intelligence acquired by the United States over the last six months has suggested to some U.S. officials that North Korea might be helping to build a nuclear installation inside Syria, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Sept. 12). Provided largely by Israel, the intelligence has been restricted to a handful of high-level officials under orders from national security adviser Stephen Hadley, leaving other members of the U.S. intelligence community unsure of its implications, according to sources. Some satellite images indicate development of a plant for production of material that could be used in nuclear weapons, according to some U.S. officials. Some of the sources expressed skepticism that North Korea and Syria would work together on nuclear development although they have collaborated in the past on missile programs.  They warned that analysts frequently re-evaluate early indications of unusual activity. One North Korean negotiator threatened the “transfer” of nuclear materials to other countries in a private talk with his U.S. counterpart on the sidelines of March 2003 discussions in Beijing.  U.S. President George W. Bush has warned against such a transfer. Israel conducted an air strike inside Syria last week.  While Israeli officials have not disclosed any details of the raid, a former official reported being told that the strikes were carried out against a facility able to produce unconventional weapons. Others have said that the Israeli air strike aimed to destroy weapons bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon or that it was intended to test Syrian air defense capabilities ahead of a strike on Iran. While Syria has signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, it has not agreed to more extensive inspections by the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency under the Additional Protocol. “Although Syria has long been cited as posing a nuclear proliferation risk, the country seems to have been too strapped for cash to get far,” said GlobalSecurity.org, a Web site that covers weapons of mass destruction-related issues (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Sept. 13). “The suspicion is that North Korea is outsourcing uranium enrichment to Damascus,” a U.S. diplomatic source told the New York Post. An Israeli-Arab newspaper reported that the Israeli air strike destroyed a joint Iranian-Syrian missile installation in northern Syria, the Post reported today.  The base, which was reportedly financed by Iran, appeared to be “completely destroyed,” the newspaper a-Sinara said (Andy Soltis, New York Post, Sept. 13). Back to top       Experts Wrap up North Korea Inspection Inspections this week of North Korea’s nuclear complex were “useful,” the head of the U.S. team said today (see GSN, Sept. 12). Experts from China, Russia and the United States viewed the primary facilities at the Yongbyon complex, according to State Department chief Korea expert Sung Kim.  He did not provide additional comment, the Associated Press reported. U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Vershbow said the two-day inspection would “facilitate tangible progress” on the U.S. intention to have nuclear facilities at Yongbyon fully disabled this year. “We hope it means that the North Korean leadership is making the strategic decision to denuclearize and join the international community,” he said today during a forum in Seoul.  “All eyes are on the North Korean leadership’s next steps.” North Korea has halted operations at Yongbyon as part of a denuclearization agreement reached during six-nation negotiations in February.  The next phase of the agreement calls for Pyongyang to fully declare and disable its nuclear complex.  In return, it would receive energy aid and diplomatic and security concessions from the other nations. Experts during this week’s trip were expected to consider strategies for carrying out nuclear disablement (Associated Press/USA Today, Sept. 13). The experts were expected tomorrow to discuss the matter with officials in Pyongyang, Agence France-Presse reported (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Sept. 13). A U.S. document indicates Washington could provide $25 million worth of heavy fuel oil to North Korea, due to progress in the nuclear negotiations, Reuters reported today. “Although these discussions remain ongoing, the administration deems the initial progress as sufficient justification to begin preparations for a first shipment by the United States,” according to the document. Pyongyang stands to receive a total of 1 million tons of fuel oil or equivalent aid if it follows through on its pledge (Reuters/Straits Times, Sept. 13). Seoul and Washington are also discussing a peace treaty with Pyongyang to formally end the Korean War, AFP reported. “I think that we have already begun consultations with the South Korean government to develop a common approach to these talks,” Vershbow said. A significant amount of time is needed to address “all aspects of a peace agreement that is not just a brief declaration that says the war is over, but also will involve all kinds of provisions including military confidence-building measures,” he said. The peace treaty is one issue being considered alongside the nuclear negotiations.  The peace talks could begin before North Korea carries out full denuclearization, Vershbow indicated (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Sept. 13). Back to top       LANL Lacks Full Accounting of Plutonium, Report Says A government audit found that the Los Alamos National Laboratory has not conducted a full accounting of stored plutonium, enriched uranium and other nuclear weapons materials for at least 13 years, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 30, 2005). Instead, there has been a regular series of partial counts of material, according to Energy Department Inspector General Gregory Friedman. It has been “perhaps 13 years or more” since the last full inventory, Friedman wrote in his report.  That means it has been well over a decade since all of the material has been physically proven to be present. “The capability to deter, detect and assist in the prevention of theft or diversion of this material is critical,” Friedman stated.  “We were unable to find anyone with knowledge or documentation of the last time the vault was completely inventoried.” The report calls for an improved inventory system. Los Alamos spokesman Kevin Roark said that no material has disappeared from the laboratory and that statistical sampling functions well as the inventory method.  Highly enriched uranium and plutonium are generally stored “in a tamperproof container inside a vault in the most secure facility … down a road you can’t drive down without a lab badge,” Roark said. The audit noted that in one case it took eight days to document arrival of a shipment of nuclear material in a laboratory sector that stores limited amounts of plutonium and uranium.  The designated documentation time was within four hours. “Under the circumstances, the nuclear material could have been diverted without any record showing that it had ever existed,” Friedman stated. It would cost too much and not be practical to perform a full inventory, Roark said.  Material at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California undergoes full inventories on a semiannual basis, AP reported.  However, the nuclear weapons material stockpile at the laboratory is much smaller than Los Alamos’ holdings (Jennifer Talhelm, Associated Press/San Luis Obispo Tribune, Sept. 12). Back to top       Iranian President Warns U.N. Against Intervention Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday demanded that the U.N. Security Council refrain from intervening in Iran’s nuclear program as the International Atomic Energy Agency seeks to clarify the country’s nuclear ambitions, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 12). “The work should be continued with [the] agency, others should not intervene,” Ahmadinejad said.  “We do not have any problem with the agency.” “We are ready to do all our commitments in the framework of the agency,” he said. Chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani warned yesterday that a third round of Security Council sanctions against Iran would endanger the country’s cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. “Cooperation will be in danger.  The cooperation which is currently taking place with a positive outlook will be halted,” Larijani said.  “One side should not be smiling and the other side answer with a frown” (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press I/Live-PR.com, Sept. 12). Ahmadinejad in an interview yesterday dismissed suspicions that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, Agence France-Presse reported. “We don’t want a bomb.  We are against bombs, actually,” he told the United Kingdom’s Channel 4.  “From a political point of view, it’s not useful … Why do we want a bomb? … What’s the use of it?  We don’t need it.” His assertion came amid continued international controversy over Iran’s refusal to halt uranium enrichment, which could yield a nuclear bomb ingredient (see GSN, Sept. 12; Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Sept. 12). Meanwhile, Iran’s IAEA envoy said yesterday that Western powers were “poisoning the environment” at a meeting of the agency’s 35-nation governing board by drawing attention away from Iran’s recent cooperation with an investigation of its past nuclear activities, AP reported (Associated Press II/China Daily, Sept. 12). The U.S. State Department yesterday announced Sept. 21 as the date of the Washington meeting for the five permanent member nations of the Security Council and Germany to review a draft sanctions resolution against Iran, AFP reported. The meeting is expected to involve policy coordinators from the nations’ foreign ministries, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns “is going to be hosting next week here in Washington a political directors’ meeting of the P5+1 and I expect the meeting will be centered largely on discussion of what sanctions would be in the next resolution,” McCormack said. “We are confident that we are going to be able to move forward, get a new Security Council resolution that includes new sanctions,” he said (Agence France-Presse II/Google News, Sept. 12). Elsewhere, Iran’s foreign minister met in Moscow yesterday with the head of Russia’s nuclear agency, but a Russian official said they did not discuss the disputed timeline for Russia to finish constructing the Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran, Reuters reported (see GSN, Sept. 7). “It was decided to leave this off the agenda because there is a separate working group of experts who are handling this issue,” the official said (Reuters/Moscow Times, Sept. 13). Meanwhile, Iranian Atomic Energy Organization head Gholamreza Aghazadeh said Tuesday that the Bushehr nuclear plant is 95 percent complete, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported yesterday. Aghazadeh said that Iranian officials expect to announce in one month when Russia plans to deliver fuel for the plant and when the facility will begin operation. Disputes between Iran and Russia’s state-run contractor over the project are not “contractual,” he said, but rather are owed to the project’s long-term nature. “The contractor is saying it cannot continue to work according to the contract due to financial losses,” he said (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Sept. 12). Back to top       Nuclear Proliferation a Top Threat, Group Says Nuclear proliferation remains among the top threats facing the world today, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said yesterday in its annual review of global issues (see GSN, Sept. 11). The 400-page “Strategic Survey” also identified rising levels of Islamic extremism and climate change as primary dangers facing the world, Agence France-Presse reported. “In Europe, the United States and Asia big powers will talk to each other about … status, alliance, deterrence, containment, balance of power,” the London think tank said in a statement on the report. “In the meantime, groups around the world will fight those states and alliances. … In this ‘nonpolar’ world, the space for aggressive nonstate actors to advance their particularist strategic aims has grown,” the group said. It said there would be a “dawning of a new nuclear age” next year if it is confirmed that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons and other nations respond by seeking their own weapons, AFP reported (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Sept. 12). Back to top       Indian Communists Issue Ultimatum Over Nuclear Deal Communists in India yesterday threatened to withdraw support from the administration of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh if it continues to pursue a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with the United States, Reuters reported (see GSN, Sept. 12). Experts said the statement by the head of the country’s largest communist party hurt Singh’s chances of completing his five-year term in power.  If he continues to back the nuclear deal, Singh could have to decide whether to call elections before the end of his term in May 2009 or continue leading India with minority support. “We won't be there to help this government conclude this agreement,” said Communist Party of India (Marxist) chief Prakash Karat.  “That’s final.” Karat said that to maintain the communists’ support, Singh’s government must not pursue planned negotiations with the U.N. nuclear watchdog for carrying out inspections of Indian civilian nuclear facilities.  Such inspections are one requirement for gaining access to U.S. nuclear technology and materials. “Don't go.  Wait for some time.  Listen to our objections.  Examine these objections.  Let parliament opine on it,” he said.  “But they have not so far agreed.” “This is not a normal matter of differences between us.  The question is, why this determination to go ahead despite the fact that the main parties on which the government depends on for its majority say no” (Kamil Zaheer, Reuters/Washington Post, Sept. 13). Back to top       U.S., Vietnam Sign Civilian Nuclear Energy Deal The United States will assist Vietnam in developing its nuclear energy program while reducing potential proliferation dangers, the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration announced yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 17). “This cooperative arrangement will help Vietnam to adopt civilian nuclear energy so that it can meet its growing energy demands, and it helps Vietnam do it in ways that will reduce potential nuclear proliferation concerns,” NNSA deputy head William Tobey said in a statement. Under the agreement, U.S. nuclear scientists from the Lawrence Livermore and Oak Ridge national laboratories will work with Vietnamese technicians to develop standards for safe reactor operation and radiation protection as well as measures for disposing of nuclear waste and monitoring for environmental radiological hazards. In the future, U.S. and Vietnamese officials are expected to collaborate on nuclear safeguards and regulatory controls (National Nuclear Security Administration release, Sept. 12). Back to top

Bill Sets 2017 Deadline for Chem Weapons Disposal An amendment approved yesterday by the Senate Appropriations Committee requires the U.S. Defense Department to complete disposal of chemical weapons stored in Colorado and Kentucky by the end of 2017, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 12). The language in a fiscal 2008 defense appropriations bill would essentially set 2017 as the end date for complete elimination of the U.S. stockpile of nerve and blister agents.  Depots at Blue Grass, Ky., and Pueblo, Colo., are the only facilities that have yet to begin destruction of chemical munitions. Chemical neutralization plants have yet to be built at the two sites, which have been delayed by issues including funding and design.  The existing schedule has operations beginning in 2014 at both locations, with weapons disposal ending in 2020 at Pueblo and 2023 at Blue Grass. Under the Chemical Weapons Convention, the United States is required to destroy all covered munitions and agents by 2012. “Without a firm deadline, DOD will continue to drag its feet,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who sponsored the amendment with Senator Wayne Allard (R-Colo.), said in a press release. More than 2,600 tons of mustard agent is stored at Pueblo in projectiles and cartridges, AP reported.  There are 532 tons of nerve and blister agents contained in rockets and projectiles at Blue Grass. The defense bill still has to be approved by the full Senate.  It would increase funding for weapons disposal at the two locations, according to Allard (Associated Press, Sept. 12). The committee this week also boosted the Bush administration’s $132 million request for work at the two sites by $10 million, the Pueblo, Colo., Chieftain reported.  The money would be used for additional equipment purchases, Allard said (John Norton, Pueblo Chieftain, Sept. 13). The Defense Department remains “committed to its responsibility to destroy these outdated weapons safely and efficiently.  Destroying these weapons is not a fast or simple process,” said Pentagon spokesman Chris Isleib (Warren/Abdullah, Lexington Herald-Leader, Sept. 13). Back to top       Cambodia Designates CWC National Authority Cambodia has designated a government agency to implement provisions of the Chemical Weapons Convention within the nation, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said yesterday (see GSN, July 20). The Cambodian National Authority for the Prohibition of Chemical, Nuclear, Biological and Radiological Weapons is the chosen agency, according to an OPCW press release. The treaty requires that each member state establish a national authority “to serve as the focal point for effective liaison with the organization and other states parties.”  Duties of a national authority include helping a country facilitate inspections by the organization, remain in compliance with the treaty’s requirements and cooperate on peaceful chemical activities. Only eight of the 182 convention states parties have yet to designate a national authority (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons release, Sept. 12). Back to top

SBIRS Exceeds Budget, Schedule Plans, GAO Says Development of the U.S. Space-Based Infrared System for tracking enemy missiles has cost billions of dollars more than planned and is years beyond its original schedule, the Government Accountability Office said yesterday (see GSN, July 10). The Defense Department began the program in 1996.  It expected to spend $4.2 billion to deploy SBIRS satellites by 2004, according to a GAO document.  “However, over the past 11 years, SBIRS has proven to be technically challenging and substantially more costly.  In an effort to stem cost increases and schedule delays, DOD has restructured the program multiple times, including revising program goals,” GAO acquisition and sourcing management chief Cristina Chaplain said in a letter to the ranking members of the House and Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces subcommittees. The project is now expected to cost more than $10.4 billion, with the first satellite launched next year, Chaplain stated. “Since its inception, SBIRS has been burdened by immature technologies, unclear requirements, unstable funding, underestimated software complexity, poor oversight, and other problems,” she said.  It has been more than a year since the program was last restructured, but it “still faces challenges in meeting cost, schedule and performance goals.” The Government Accountability Office also expressed doubts about the Alternative Infrared Satellite System program, which began in 2006 “to compete with SBIRS and ensure that the nation’s missile-warning and defense capabilities are sustained, or possibly provide a follow-on capability to SBIRS.” The Air Force has not allowed enough time for developing the system before the scheduled 2015 launch of the first satellite, the letter says.  The program might also be “optimistic in its assumptions about technology risk,” according to Chaplain.  Data from a planned 2010 launch of a small-scale demonstration satellite would not be ready in time to provide information on development of the first full-scale satellite, she added. The GAO letter calls for the Pentagon to “reassess its investment in AIRSS and [to find] alternative ways of reducing the risk posed by the SBIRS program, to … assure the current missile-warning and defense capabilities are sustained” (U.S. Government Accountability Office letter, Sept. 12). Back to top

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