U.S. Could Lose Proliferation Battle, Experts Say

Bush administration efforts to hold nuclear weapons proliferation in check could ultimately prove unsuccessful, analysts said in an Associated Press article published today (see GSN, Jan. 10).

While U.S. officials and diplomats continue to push against nuclear weapons development, North Korea has delayed declaring its nuclear assets while Iran has not betrayed any sign of intimidation in the face of new international sanctions over its nuclear program, AP said.

“It is clear to everyone that the Bush strategy has failed,” said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear analyst at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank.  “The only question is whether he can adjust quickly enough to salvage something from this mess.”

Cirincione said yesterday that North Korea offered the “best hope” for disarmament “provided Bush sticks with negotiations.”  North Korea vowed last year that it would give up its nuclear programs in exchange for diplomatic, security and energy incentives.

“We have U.S. scientists in North Korea actually dismantling plutonium reactors,” Cirincione said.  “We are a lot better off than we were two years ago when they were testing weapons.”

Cirincione said that Iran poses a more difficult challenge for the Bush administration. 

“The president doesn't want to abandon his confrontational approach and engage Iran directly in negotiations to curtail their program in exchange for the kind of agreement we are offering North Korea,” he said.

The Bush administration’s momentum in confronting Iran was slowed last month with the release of a U.S. intelligence assessment concluding that Tehran had halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003.

Since then, White House officials have contended that Iran continues to defy two U.N. Security Council resolutions by pushing ahead with a uranium enrichment program it could tap for nuclear weapons development.

Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton told AP that the U.S. intelligence estimate ruined the Bush administration’s strategy on Iran.  “It is shredded at this point,” he said.

Brookings Institution senior fellow Michael O’Hanlon said the Bush administration has done a “reasonable job” dealing with Iran by slowly intensifying economic pressure against the country and working with other Western powers on diplomacy with Tehran.

 “It has not been a dramatic failure,” he told AP.  “I would give him a gentleman’s B.”

However, O’Hanlon criticized the administration for not pursuing a nuclear disablement agreement with North Korea years earlier.  That could have prevented the country from quadrupling its nuclear arsenal and conducting a 2006 nuclear bomb test, he said.

O’Hanlon said he would grade the White House’s performance on North Korea “in the realm of a D” (Barry Schweid, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Jan. 24).

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