Bush to Call for Continued Pressure on Iran

U.S. President George W. Bush plans to push for more international pressure against Iran over its nuclear program during his first extended trip to the Middle East this week despite regional doubts left by a U.S. intelligence assessment’s conclusion that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Jan. 3).

“Part of the reason I'm going to the Middle East is to make it abundantly clear to nations in that part of the world that we view Iran as a threat, and that the [National Intelligence Estimate] in no way lessens that threat, but in fact clarifies the threat,” Bush told the Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot.

The intelligence analysis released last month has slowed momentum to step up sanctions and other moves to pressure Iran, which the Bush administration has long suspected of pursuing nuclear weapons.

The White House has maintained its position that Iran is interested in acquiring a nuclear arsenal.  However, Israel, which considers Iran a threat to its existence, and Arab Sunni nations such as Saudi Arabia that see Iran as an emerging Shiite threat, have interpreted the U.S. intelligence community’s report as a sign that the United States is losing its will to confront the Islamic republic.

One high-level administration official said that many powers in the region were “confused” by the estimate.  “No Arab regime understands why the United States would publish an intelligence estimate,” the official said.

During his eight-day tour, Bush plans to visit Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia and several small Gulf states (Abramowitz/Knickmeyer, Washington Post, Jan. 7).

Bush is expected to receive a briefing on Israel’s newest intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program and its vulnerabilities, the London Times reported yesterday.

Sources said Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak hopes to convince Bush of the feasibility of an Israeli attack against Iranian uranium enrichment facilities if current diplomatic efforts fail to convince Tehran to halt its enrichment program.

Israeli intelligence officials have been said to possess “rock solid” indications that Iran restarted nuclear weapons development after halting it in 2003.

Israeli officials plan to provide Bush with new details on Iran’s uranium enrichment as well as its development of new nuclear capable missiles, although they fear that leaks could endanger the element of surprise in a potential attack (Uzi Mahnaimi, London Times, Jan. 6).

Some Middle Eastern political analysts have said President Bush is not likely during his tour to build up any political backing for military action against Iran, Agence France-Presse reported.

“It might not spell the end of Iran as a military power, but (merely) spark Iranian reactions against Gulf states which are more than these countries can take,” said Ayed al-Manna of Kuwait.

Anwar Eshki, who leads an independent Saudi think tank, said Israel could attack Iran and “drag the United States” into the conflict.  He said a U.S. strike does not appear likely in the immediate future.

Mohammed al-Roken of the United Arab Emirates said the Bush administration is probably most interested in “nonmilitary means of putting pressure on Iran” such as economic sanctions (Lydia Georgi, Agence France-Presse/Daily Times, Jan. 6).

Meanwhile, Iran’s U.N. ambassador asked the Security Council to end its pursuit of punitive measures against Iran and submit the country’s “nuclear dossier” to the International Atomic Energy Agency, RIA Novosti reported Saturday.

“The time has come to end the illegal consideration of Iran's nuclear issue at the Security Council, and send the case back to a relevant technical forum, specifically the International Atomic Energy Agency,” Mohammad Khazaee said, adding that further involvement by the Security Council would undercut the authority of the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

Late last month, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that “since there is no evidence that Iran has deviated from (the peaceful nature of) its nuclear program ... the time has come for the parties dealing with the (Iranian) nuclear issue to make a bold and logical decision and return the matter to the IAEA” (RIA Novosti, Jan. 5).

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei plans to visit Iran next week to address outstanding concerns about the country’s nuclear program, an IAEA spokeswoman said today. (Reuters I, Jan. 7).

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said yesterday that the country has expelled a German diplomat for carrying out “nondiplomatic activities,” Reuters reported.

An Iranian envoy was expelled from Germany last summer after attempting to obtain systems control equipment from a Bavarian company for Iran’s nuclear program, the German publication Der Spiegel reported last month.  Iran’s suspension of a German official might have been a retaliatory gesture for that incident, according to Deutsche Presse-Agentur (Reuters II, Jan. 6).

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