Top U.S. Intelligence Official Backtracks on Wording of Iranian Nuclear Threat Assessment

U.S. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell distanced himself yesterday from an intelligence report’s conclusion that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, the New York Sun reported (see GSN, Feb. 5).

“If I had 'til now to think about it, I probably would change a few things,” McConnell said in his testimony to the Senate Select Intelligence Committee, referring to a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate released late last year that was intended to represent the U.S. intelligence community’s consensus view on Iran’s nuclear activities.

“I would change the way we describe the Iranian nuclear program.  I would have included that there are the component parts, that the portion of it, maybe the least significant, had halted,” he said, referring to an Iranian nuclear warhead design program the assessment said was dropped several years ago.

McConnell also used Iran’s ongoing uranium enrichment program to question Tehran’s stated nuclear ambitions.  Iran has insisted that its nuclear program is intended solely to produce civilian power, but the enrichment process can produce a nuclear weapon ingredient.

“Declared uranium enrichment efforts, which will enable the production of fissile material, continue.  This is the most difficult challenge in nuclear production.  Iran's efforts to perfect ballistic missiles that can reach North Africa and Europe also continue,” McConnell said.

“We remain concerned about Iran’s intentions and assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons,” he said (Eli Lake, New York Sun, Feb. 6).

At the United Nations, South African U.N. envoy Dumisani Kumalo yesterday expressed dismay at a push by the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations to vote on a new sanctions resolution against Iran, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 31).

The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to report to the Security Council by Feb. 20 about Iran’s progress in disclosing details of its past nuclear activities, Kumalo said.

“Why are we rushing?  Can't we wait for it?” asked the representative for the nonpermanent Security Council member nation.  “We just want to be sure that the council has all the information that it requires before it acts, but the timing is very important.”

Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said delaying a vote on the resolution until the IAEA report’s release “is not the kind of understanding they had among the six foreign ministers” of the permanent Security Council powers and Germany when they agreed to the draft resolution in January.

The draft states that it targets “the proliferation risks presented by the Iranian nuclear program,” and urges Iran to halt its uranium enrichment program and address the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s remaining concerns “without delay.”

The resolution would place a travel ban on all people involved in procurement and other activities for Iran’s nuclear program, and it would prohibit transactions with Iran involving civilian equipment that it could also use in its nuclear work.

The draft resolution asks countries to inspect shipments moving in and out of Iran on ships or aircraft owned either by Iran Air Cargo or the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line “provided there are reasonable grounds to believe” they are delivering banned cargo.

Kumalo said that South Africa is seeking “clarity” on such searches.  “What happens if you search the wrong boat that has nothing, because it may be an Iranian boat, and it may be an innocent one?  They'll sue us.”

The draft resolution asks IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei to report again in 90 days on Iran’s compliance with Security Council demands.  It states that the sanctions would be lifted for as long as Iran halts it uranium enrichment and reprocessing programs, but threatens “further appropriate measures” if Tehran continues to defy the demands (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/Washington Post, Feb. 5).

Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and other U.S. allies in the Middle East have been helping to protect the Iranian financial system from unilateral U.S. sanctions, Iranian central bank head Tahmasb Mazaheri said yesterday.

Mazaheri said the political, economic and cultural ties between oil-producing nations in the Persian Gulf have overridden U.S. efforts to financially isolate Iran, Reuters reported.

“Neither us nor our neighbors will sacrifice our long-term interests because of the unilateral pressures,” he said.  “Particularly in the region, Bahrain and the Emirates and other neighbors all around Iran's borders, we have a lot of partners who are working with us in the long term.”

Mazaheri did not give details on the protection that Iran’s neighbors are providing (Daliah Merzaban, Reuters I/Feb. 5).

Israel’s Mossad intelligence service projects in a report to the Israeli parliament that Iran will have a nuclear weapon completed within three years, disagreeing with the U.S. intelligence consensus that Iran has suspended its nuclear weapons development, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday.

Agency director Meir Dagan presented the report on Monday to the parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee, the Israeli newspaper Maariv said (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, Feb. 5).

The release of the recent U.S. intelligence assessment has eliminated U.S. bargaining power with Iran, enabling Tehran to continue to defy Security Council resolutions on its nuclear activities, a nonproliferation expert said yesterday.

The recent U.S. National Intelligence Estimate “changed the dynamics of efforts to curb Iran's dual-use nuclear program,” said John Chipman, head of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said yesterday.  “It had the effect of taking off the table the near-term prospect of US military action” against Tehran.

Russia has also completed its shipment of 82 metric tons of nuclear power plant fuel to Iran’s Bushehr reactor, removing “another form of leverage over Iran although it also underscored questions about the purpose of the Natanz enrichment plan,” Chipman told journalists.

“Iran shows no sign of abiding by Security Council demands to stop its current enrichment activity and indeed Tehran is moving ahead with a new generation of more efficient centrifuges,” he said (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Feb. 5).

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice delivered a slight rebuke to U.N. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for directly debating Iran’s foreign minister last month without the State Department’s permission, Reuters reported (see GSN, Jan. 30).

“I think everyone agrees that these things should be coordinated and it should have been coordinated,” she told journalists in London.

“The fact is Zal's comments, if you read them, could not have been clearer, not just in support but in communicating U.S. policy very clearly. That is the important point. I know Zal very well and I know that he is right there on U.S. policy,” she said (Reuters II/Washington Post, Feb. 6).

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