State Department Concedes Possibility of Major Delay on Nuclear Trade Deal With India

A U.S. State Department spokesman conceded yesterday that a nuclear trade agreement with India might not be completed by the Bush administration, raising questions about whether the deal would ever be finalized, news agencies reported (see GSN, April 1).

The pact would enable New Delhi to purchase U.S. nuclear materials and technology, but it has been opposed by key supporters of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.  The critics have threatened to force early elections if Singh moves to implement the deal by signing a corresponding oversight agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“We certainly believe it is still possible for this deal to move forward and for our Congress to have an opportunity to consider it” in this final year of President George W. Bush’s term in office, State Department spokesman Tom Casey said yesterday.  “Obviously, though, there would be opportunities in future Congresses and with the future administration to move forward on this.”

“And frankly, regardless of whether this arrangement is passed in the next year or not, one thing that I don't think will change is the continuing strengthening and deepening of the U.S.-Indian relationship that has begun under this administration, and we certainly hope will continue into the future," he added.

Despite the possible delay, “We certainly haven't given up on the idea that it, in fact, could move forward during the course of the coming year.  So let's see where we wind up before we start issuing any kind of final judgments on it,” Casey said (Indo-Asian News Service/Times of India, April 4).

A delay into next year, however, would endanger the agreement, one analyst who has actively promoted it told the Associated Press.

“It just becomes much more burdensome, because the principal players who were involved in the negotiations will have moved on; there will be a loss of collective memory,” said Ashley Tellis of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  “It's entirely possible, for someone who doesn't like the agreement, to simply say, if they were to come into office:  ‘Thank you very much; this is the policy of the last administration; I don't want to have any part of it.'"

Tellis predicated that Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) might support the deal if he wins the presidency in November, but Democratic contenders Senator Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) and Senator Barack Obama (Ill.) might not.

Those two “were very uncomfortable supporters of the agreement” in late 2006 when they endorsed the deal by voting to exempt India from many U.S. nuclear nonproliferation restrictions, Tellis said (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, April 4).

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