U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, shown last month in Seoul, engineered an agreement to permit verification of North Korea's nuclear activities (Kim Jae-hwan/Getty Images). North Korea Agrees to Nuclear Verification, Monitoring North Korea has agreed to a full program to verify the extent of its nuclear operations, and in return on Saturday was removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 10). The Stalinist state has also allowed international inspectors to resume their work, just days after ordering them to suspend all monitoring at the Yongbyon nuclear complex.  Resumption of disablement activities at the site is also anticipated...Full Story

India, U.S. Ink Nuclear Trade Pact The United States and India signed a historic civil nuclear cooperation agreement Friday, formally reversing a decades-old U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy (see GSN, Oct. 9)...Full Story

U.S. Supports Reactor Conversion in Three Nations The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration said Friday that it had helped to end the use of weapon-usable highly enriched uranium fuel at research reactors in three nations (see GSN, Oct. 3)...Full Story

	Tuesday, October 14, 2008

North Korea Agrees to Nuclear Verification, Monitoring North Korea has agreed to a full program to verify the extent of its nuclear operations, and in return on Saturday was removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 10). The Stalinist state has also allowed international inspectors to resume their work, just days after ordering them to suspend all monitoring at the Yongbyon nuclear complex.  Resumption of disablement activities at the site is also anticipated. The entire North Korean denuclearization process, crystallized in a 2007 agreement signed by six nations, had appeared threatened by the dispute between Pyongyang and Washington on verification. The Bush administration had demanded that North Korea accept a U.S.-drafted protocol for confirming details of a declaration of its nuclear activities and holdings before coming off the terrorism list.  Pyongyang in response began to reverse the disablement of facilities at Yongbyon, moving to resume plutonium-production activities and last week barring International Atomic Energy Agency personnel from all plants. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill traveled to Pyongyang in early October in hopes of breaking the deadlock.  That apparently led to last week’s actions. “Every single element of verification that we sought going in is part of this package," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said during a press conference Saturday. Anticipated verification measures include sampling and forensic testing at declared and — following North Korean consent — undeclared nuclear facilities, which might include the site of North Korea’s 2006 nuclear test.  The agreement also covers examination of the regime’s suspected nuclear proliferation and uranium enrichment activities, the State Department said in a statement. “Verifying North Korea's nuclear proliferation will be a serious challenge.  This is the most secret and opaque regime in the entire world," said Patricia McNerney, assistant secretary of state for international security and nonproliferation. The delisting went into effect immediately.  While the action frees North Korea from some U.S. sanctions, there is little immediate change in its standing due to a host of other penalties that have been placed on the regime. The deal quickly came under attack, AP reported. “By rewarding North Korea before the regime has carried out its commitments, we are encouraging this regime to continue its illicit nuclear program and violate its pledge to no longer provide nuclear assistance to extremist regimes," said Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee (Matthew Lee, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Oct. 12). Japan also registered its displeasure, according to Agence France-Presse.  Tokyo has been the most reluctant member of the five nations negotiating with Pyongyang, pressing for the regime to also address its abduction of Japanese citizens during the 1970s and 1980s. While Japan understands that the U.S. move was intended to reignite the faltering denuclearization process, “we have made it clear that we are not content with the delisting,” Prime Minister Taro Aso told lawmakers today. If there is progress on verification, North Korea is likely to “demand energy and economic assistance,” Aso said.  “As long as there is no progress on the abduction issue, however, we will not respond to this kind of demand” (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Oct. 14). Japan last week said it would maintain sanctions preventing imports of material from North Korea and use of Japanese ports by ships registered to the Stalinist state for at least another six months, Kyodo News reported (Kyodo News/Japan Times, Oct. 11). Disablement activities at Yongbyon, which houses North Korea’s only operating reactor and other plants needed for plutonium production, were expected to begin again today, AP reported.  North Korea stopped work at the site in August. Facilities that have undergone full disablement would theoretically be prevented from resuming operations for at least one year. There was no word by this afternoon on the Korean Peninsula whether disablement was actually under way again (Jae-Soon Chang, Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, Oct. 14). U.N. nuclear watchdog inspectors yesterday were allowed to resume monitoring of the nuclear reactor, fuel fabrication plant and the plutonium reprocessing plant at Yongbyon, according to an IAEA release.  North Korea had barred the monitors from the sites on Oct. 9. “The agency inspectors were also informed that as of [today], core discharge activities at the reactor would be resumed, monitored by agency inspectors,” IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said in a prepared statement.  “Agency inspectors will also now be permitted to reapply the containment and surveillance measures at the reprocessing facility” (International Atomic Energy Agency release, Oct. 13). Back to top       India, U.S. Ink Nuclear Trade Pact The United States and India signed a historic civil nuclear cooperation agreement Friday, formally reversing a decades-old U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy (see GSN, Oct. 9). The trade pact will enable India to purchase U.S. nuclear materials and technology which have been denied since 1974 because New Delhi has refused to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty or permit international monitoring of all of its nuclear activities.  Under the new deal, India has agreed to place its civilian nuclear program under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision. “Many thought this day would never come, but doubts have been silenced now,” said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at the signing ceremony in Washington.  “The world’s largest democracy and the world’s oldest democracy, drawn together by our shared values and, increasingly, by our many shared interests, now stand as equals, closer together than ever before.” Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee signed the agreement for his nation. “We look forward to working with U.S. companies on the commercial steps that will follow to implement this landmark agreement,” he said. The three-year process to enable the deal also frees India to pursue nuclear technology from other nations, such as France and Russia.  The 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group agreed earlier this year to exempt New Delhi from its prohibition on trade with non-NPT nations. While signing U.S. legislation enabling the deal last week, U.S. President George W. Bush said the agreement would promote efforts to curb nuclear-weapon proliferation.  Rice echoed that theme yesterday. “Let us use this partnership to tackle the great global challenges of our time:  energy security and climate change, terrorism and violent extremism, transnational crime and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,” she said (Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire, Oct. 14). Back to top       U.S. Supports Reactor Conversion in Three Nations The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration said Friday that it had helped to end the use of weapon-usable highly enriched uranium fuel at research reactors in three nations (see GSN, Oct. 3). A total of three reactors in Argentina, South Africa and Ukraine have been modified to run on low-enriched uranium fuel, which could not be diverted for weapons purposes. The U.S. agency has now supported the conversion or closure of 62 reactors in 32 nations, including seven so far this year, under its Global Threat Reduction Initiative. “We commend the recent efforts of the Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica in Argentina, the Kiev Institute of Nuclear Research in Ukraine, and the South African Nuclear Energy Corp. (NECSA) for their efforts in converting these research reactors,” NNSA Deputy Administrator William Tobey said in a press release.  “These successful conversions demonstrate NNSA’s strong international commitment to minimize the use of highly enriched uranium around the world” (U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration release, Oct. 10). Back to top       Western Nations Consider Independent Iran Sanctions The United States and other Western powers might sidestep the United Nations to place new energy and financial penalties on Iran over its refusal to halt activities that could support nuclear-weapon development, the Financial Times reported Sunday (see GSN, Oct. 10). One Western diplomat said that after the U.N. Security Council passed a recent resolution merely reaffirming three previous sets of sanctions against Iran, Washington and its allies concluded that “if there is another (resolution) it will take a lot of time and there will be very little substance in it.” “The idea would be to get together a coalition of the willing … given the difficulties we would have getting this past Russia and China (in the U.N.),” according to another Western diplomat. More talk about military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites is likely as 2009 progresses, one European diplomat said.  The official argued that Iran could enrich enough nuclear material to power a weapon by the end of next year. Tehran maintains that its nuclear program is intended strictly for peaceful energy production and has promised it would swiftly retaliate against any attacking nation. “Iran has a limited refining capacity, so they rely on petrol imports. ... We are therefore working on targeting investment in the Iranian refinery industry,” the Western diplomat said.  “You would try and stop investment in new projects inside Iran, preventing extraction and transportation. New penalties might also target Iranian financial institutions and could be agreed upon early next month, the source said. The new sanctions could target shipments of refining equipment and refined petroleum to Iran, the Western diplomat said.  The nation imports roughly one-third of its refined oil, an amount expected to cost about $10 billion in 2008. “The Europeans make war more likely if they do not strengthen sanctions against Iran,” according to a September report co-written by a Dennis Ross, a Middle East adviser to Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama (D-Ill.).  The Bipartisan Policy Center report urges “prepositioning additional U.S. and allied forces, deploying additional aircraft carrier battle groups and minesweepers (and) placing other war materiel in the (Gulf) region” (Dombey/Blitz, Financial Times, Oct. 12). Meanwhile, an Iranian nuclear official has said that roughly 700 Iranian engineers have completed fours years of training to operate the country’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Associated Press reported today. The facility is expected to enter operation by the end of March 2009, Iranian state media quoted Ahmad Fayazbakhsh as saying (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Oct. 14). Back to top       Russia Test-Fires Four Ballistic Missiles Russia launched three submarine-launched ballistic missiles and a land-based missile over the weekend during its most recent exercise in an ongoing series of drills, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Sept. 29; Agence France-Presse/Google News, Oct. 12). "We will strengthen our military capability, we will adopt new types of weapons, but we will continue to test the traditional ballistic missiles we have in service," Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said after Sunday’s tests.  "Their effectiveness has stood the test of time, and that is very good.  It shows that our shield is in order" (Steve Gutterman, Associated Press/Google News, Oct. 13). "We will of course be introducing new types of forces and means into the military," Medvedev said, without providing details (see GSN, July 15). This weekend’s activities began with the launch Saturday of a Sineva SLBM northeast of Norway in the Barents Sea; the weapon flew more than 7,145 miles, creating what Medvedev called a new record for distance, AFP reported. Sunday’s sea-based tests occurred almost simultaneously from submarines in the Barents Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk north of Japan, said Russian navy spokesman Igor Dygalo.  The third launch that day involved a Topol ICBM fired from the Russian base at Plesetsk. "The missiles hit right on target," Dygalo said. Experts differed on the intent of the missile launches. “This was a dry run for a war with the United States," military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said of the tests, which fell under the aegis of the “Stability 2008” military exercises.  “These are the biggest strategic war games in more than 20 years.  They are on a parallel with those held in the first half of the 1980s. Nothing of the sort has been seen either in Russia or the United States since then” (AFP). However, others said the tests were intended to shore up political support within Russia and were not aimed at intimidating Western nations, Reuters reported. "The Kremlin staged this showy … PR campaign to distract public attention from the financial crisis and tell the people, ‘Look, we still have achievements in the military sector,’” said analyst Stanislav Belkovsky, head of the National Strategy Institute.  "All we saw is technology that is 20 or 25 years old. …  Military experts know the real state of things, so you can't fool them by this Soviet-era saber-rattling." The Topol ICBM and Sineva SLBM used in the tests were each engineered during the Cold War (Reuters, Oct. 13). Back to top       U.S. Limits Los Alamos Pit Production Plan The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration has at least temporarily halted plans to expand the production of nuclear warhead “pits” at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, Nuclear Watch New Mexico said Friday (see GSN, March 13). In 2003, NNSA officials recommended establishing a “Modern Pit Facility” that could annually produce as many as 450 plutonium cores for nuclear weapons.  The agency later planned to expand the Los Alamos laboratory’s annual pit production capacity from 20 to no more than 80 cores, according to a draft environmental statement on a plan to consolidate the U.S. nuclear weapons complex (see GSN, Oct. 10). However, the final statement says that the maximum production quantity will remain at 20 pits annually until the United States completes a new nuclear posture review next year or afterward. The watchdog group has argued that expanding pit assembly would help enable the production of a next-generation nuclear warhead (see GSN, Sept. 24).  Congress has eliminated spending on the new warhead, removing the need for expanded pit production for the time being, the group said. “The favorable NNSA decision to not expand plutonium pit production at Los Alamos has profound implications for the lab’s future,” organization head Jay Coghlan said in a statement.  “Perhaps now we can have some real hope that it won’t become primarily a bomb factory. … Money speaks, and so far the lab’s budget has been two-thirds dedicated to core nuclear weapons programs.  The time is long past due to radically change funding priorities at Los Alamos” (Nuclear Watch New Mexico release, Oct. 10) Back to top

U.S. Vaccine Export Ban Raises Concerns An obscure U.S. rule prohibits exporting vaccines for avian influenza and other diseases to four nations listed as “state sponsors of terrorism” due to concern that the medicine might be tapped to develop biological weapons, the Associated Press reported Saturday (see GSN, Feb. 26). The regulation, implemented more than 10 years ago, would require Cuba, Iran, Sudan or Syria to request permits to buy U.S. vaccines for dozens of diseases, including bird flu, Ebola and Dengue fever.  Washington would be empowered to delay or deny such clearances. The terrorism list until Saturday also included North Korea (see related GSN story, today). In addition, the United States enforces a separate embargo that would block influenza vaccine exports to Cuba, Iran and Sudan. The export restrictions worry officials at the Health and Human Services Department and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who said they had not known of the measures until notified by AP.  Some analysts also expressed skepticism that biological-weapon agents could be cultivated from vaccines. The rules make “no scientific sense,” said Peter Palese, microbiology department head at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York.  He noted that using a bird flu vaccine to contain animal epidemics lowers the risk that a new strain of the virus could emerge and spread infection widely among humans.  The disease to date has killed more than 240 people, with Indonesia accounting for nearly half of the victims. "The more vaccines out there, the better,” Palese said.  “It's a matter of protecting ourselves, really, so the bird flu virus doesn't take hold in these countries and spread."  While biological-weapon capabilities are unique to various agents, most specialists believe that the inactive virus used in the bird flu vaccine could not be revived for use in a weapon, AP reported. It would be ironic if the avian influenza virus acquired more dangerous characteristics in one of the nations prohibited from receiving the U.S. vaccine, said Kumanan Wilson, a health policy analyst at the University of Toronto. "That would pose a much graver threat to the public than the theoretical risk that the vaccine could be used for biological warfare," Wilson said. Still, U.S. Assistant Commerce Secretary Christopher Wall said there are “valid security concerns” that bird flu vaccines for use in chickens "do not fall into the wrong hands" (Robin McDowell, Associated Press/Google News, Oct. 11). Back to top       Powder Scares, Other Hoaxes Top 30,000 in U.S. U.S. emergency responders have dealt with more than 30,000 false alarms involving strange powders and other substances since the 2001 anthrax mailings that killed five people, USA Today reported Sunday (see GSN, June 6). None of the incidents in that time have involved anthrax or a similarly lethal agent, the newspaper said (see GSN, Oct. 1). During a 20-month period beginning in January 2007, the FBI investigated more than 900 potential biological-weapon cases, “the majority of those being white powder letters,” said spokesman Richard Kolko. "This is no joke and making these threats by mailing even harmless white powder can result in serious jail time for the offender," he said, noting that “several dozen people” have been found guilty of violating federal hoax and domestic terrorism regulations. Billy Hayes, a Washington fire official, added:   "A single incident can warrant a huge response. … It gets very expensive, not to mention the inconvenience." A significant portion of the 2,893 incidents that the U.S. Postal Inspection Service has responded to in the last year have involved white powder, but no official tally of powder scares since 2001 is available, according to spokesman Douglas Bem (Mimi Hall, USA Today, Oct. 12). Back to top

Corruption Case Highlights Wasteful Spending in U.S. Missile Defense Effort, Officials Say Poor oversight of a complex Defense Department procurement system has slowed U.S. efforts to develop effective missile defenses, the New York Times reported Sunday (see GSN, April 17). The problems were illustrated by a corruption case involving two midlevel managers at the Army Space and Missile Defense Command in Hunstville, Ala.  The two men violated a ban on lobbying by working directly with U.S. lawmakers, lobbyists and defense contractors to ensure a steady flow of work, much of it unwanted by Pentagon leaders.  The two men collected kickbacks from contractors, but were eventually caught and are now awaiting sentencing after pleading guilty earlier this year to conspiracy and bribery charges. Engineer Michael Cantrell and his deputy, Doug Ennis, ultimately persuaded Congress to fund $350 million in missile defense activities that Pentagon leaders never supported, diverting those funds from more viable programs, according to the Times. “What they did may have been a scandal,” said Ennis lawyer Walter Braswell.  “But even more grotesque is the way defense procurement has disintegrated into an incestuous relationship between the military, politicians and contractors.” “The system needs to change,” concurred Richard Fisher a former Cantrell supervisor.  “But it is not likely to do that.  There is just too much inertia — and too much self-interest” (Eric Lipton, New York Times, Oct. 12). Back to top

ER Personnel Worry About “Dirty Bomb” Readiness Doctors and nurses who work in U.S. emergency rooms have doubts about the ability of hospitals to deal with the aftermath of an act of radiological terrorism, the American Medical Association announced yesterday (see GSN, March 28). Emergency medicine providers met in 10 focus groups in the southeast, northeast and west to consider the aftermath of the detonation of a “dirty bomb” or a similar incident.  They agreed that there was insufficient readiness among health-care providers, emergency rooms and hospitals to provide the necessary care for victims of such an attack, according to a study in the AMA journal Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness. Participants identified a number of worries, including being faced with a flood of victims, lack of an adequate number of staffers to provide treatment, possible dangers to hospital workers, and the need for more knowledge on radiation safety and treatment. “The study has clear implications for medical preparedness and response,” lead author Steven Becker, vice chairman of the Environmental Health Sciences Department at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, said in a press release.  “There is a need for increased information and training on managing radiological events, protecting staff, and treating affected patients.  Likewise, there is a need for increased access to informational resources, such as specialized professional hot lines, pocket guides, posters and toolkits.  In addition, physicians' and nurses' concerns for loved ones need to be better taken into account in preparedness planning to prevent a potential shortage of health care providers” (American Medical Association release, Oct. 13). Back to top

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