OPCW chief Rogelio Pfirter announced this week that a nation believed to be South Korea has destroyed its entire chemical weapon arsenal (Mannie Garcia/Getty Images). South Korea Completes Chemical Weapons Disposal By Chris Schneidmiller Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A chemical-armed nation, widely assumed to be South Korea, has finished destroying its stockpile under a global treaty, U.S. and international disarmament officials said this week (see GSN, April 8)...Full Story

U.S. Limits Anthrax Vaccine Legal Liability By Elaine M. Grossman Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Health and Human Services Department early this month moved to shield government, industry and business officials from lawsuits filed by those who have received the anthrax vaccine (see GSN, Sept. 5, 2007)...Full Story

Iran Within 3 Months of Nuke Milestone, Report Says Iran could produce enough low-enriched uranium by January that if run through centrifuges again could generate fuel for a nuclear bomb in two to three months, the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control reported Wednesday (see GSN, Oct. 16)...Full Story

	Friday, October 17, 2008

Iran Within 3 Months of Nuke Milestone, Report Says Iran could produce enough low-enriched uranium by January that if run through centrifuges again could generate fuel for a nuclear bomb in two to three months, the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control reported Wednesday (see GSN, Oct. 16). Iran maintains it only wants to produce low-enriched uranium to supply its nascent nuclear power program; however, the potential remains for Tehran to recirculate the uranium through its enrichment centrifuges to obtain material suitable for use in a nuclear weapon. The independent report’s enrichment schedule is based on Iran’s estimated stock of low-enriched uranium and the estimated amount of material the country produces each month (Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control release, Oct. 15). Meanwhile, China has blocked discussions of new economic penalties against Iran, possibly because the United States plans to sell $6.5 billion in defensive armaments to Taiwan, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 15). The Bush administration has attempted for days to arrange a telephone conversation between representatives for the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany.  However, Beijing has so far avoided agreeing to a time for the discussion, according to U.S. officials and diplomats. Earlier this month, U.S. officials said they did not expect China’s participation in multilateral initiatives on Iran to be affected by the planned weapons sale to Taiwan, which Beijing considers a rogue province.  China’s moves to delay action on potential new sanctions concerns the United States and its Western allies, which are eager to boost pressure on Tehran (Matthew Lee, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Oct. 16). Elsewhere, Iranian state television said yesterday that a major air force exercise under way in the nation is intended to show that its it has the ability to strike against Israel, United Press International reported.  Tehran has threatened to swiftly retaliate against any Israeli attack on its nuclear sites. The Iranian drill is aimed at addressing rumors that Jerusalem might authorize such a strike between U.S. elections next month and the presidential inauguration in January, according to the Israeli military intelligence Web site DEBKAfile (United Press International, Oct. 16). Back to top       China Plans Major Nuclear Expansion, Expert Says China aspires to field a strategic nuclear deterrent of up to 500 warheads, a major increase, Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center said in a book published this week (see GSN, March 7). The China expert estimated Beijing aims to field 120 missiles with multiple warheads as part of an expansion to its nuclear arsenal, the Washington Times reported. “What the current American leadership, both in the military and intelligence community, is not telling us is that China is on a track to become a global competitor with the U.S. in the 2020s," Fisher told the Times.  “By that time, they will be well on their way to assembling all the elements of global power that we have today, and we need to prepare for this threat now.” Fisher’s book, China's Military Modernization: Building for Regional and Global Reach, also asserts that China has a secret missile defense program that includes antisatellite weapons (see GSN, Jan. 19, 2007). China’s frequent calls for a ban on space-based weapons are merely a “propaganda campaign intended to limit or delay defensive programs of others,” Fisher’s book says (see GSN, Feb. 13; Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Oct. 16). China currently deploys about 176 nuclear warheads, and has several dozen in storage, for a total arsenal of about 240 warheads, according to a recent  assessment by Robert Norris of the Natural Resources Defense Council and Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.  The estimate appears in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ “Nuclear Notebook.” Determining China’s nuclear plans is a difficult task, the two argue, but they do caution that of the five main nuclear-weapon states, “China alone is believed to be increasing its nuclear arsenal.” They cite a U.S. intelligence estimate that projects China deploying 75-100 warheads by 2015, but note that the estimate depends upon Beijing successfully fielding “several dozen” long-range missiles by then. Fisher’s claim that China plans to arm its missiles with multiple warheads would be a change from current practice, according to Norris and Kristensen. “China has the technical capability to develop multiple re-entry vehicles (MRVs) and multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) but has chosen not to deploy such systems on its missiles,” they said (Norris/Kristensen, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2008). Back to top       China Presses for North Korea Nuclear Talks China is testing the waters for possibly resuming six-nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear program as early as next week, Kyodo News reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 16). Beijing has hosted all earlier rounds of the negotiations, which stalled when Pyongyang in August halted and then appeared to reverse moves toward denuclearization required under a 2007 agreement.  The process appears to have resumed after the Bush administration last week removed North Korea from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. China wants to know if the other nations — Japan, Russia, the United States and both Koreas — can send diplomats to Beijing ahead of the Asia-Europe Meeting summit scheduled for Oct. 24-25, sources said.  Another source said the gathering might be more likely to occur after the summit but before the Nov. 4 presidential election in the United States. Top envoys from the six nations are expected to consider the U.S.-drafted protocol for verification of North Korea’s nuclear activities.  Pyongyang signed off on verification as part of the deal that saw it removed from the terrorism list (Kyodo News, Oct. 16). The International Atomic Energy Agency is not happy with its limited part in the verification process, the Yonhap News Agency reported. U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei “expressed regret that his agency will play a consultative and support role, not a leading role, in verifying North Korea’s nuclear program,” a South Korean Foreign Ministry official said following a meeting between ElBaradei and Vice Foreign Minister Kwon Jong-rak. It remains to be seen exactly how the agency is involved in verification, though the verification deal’s text calls for “an important consultative and support role” for the agency, Yonhap reported.  North Korea is apparently reluctant to have the agency involved in the process, which would include sampling of materials and visits to declared and possibly undeclared nuclear facilities (Yonhap News Agency, Oct. 17). Meanwhile, South Korea was trying to reduce tensions with its neighbor, after Pyongyang threatened yesterday to cut off all relations with Seoul, the Associated Press reported. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has taken a harder stance on North Korea than his two predecessors since taking office in February.  Pyongyang in turn cut off all communication at the government level and has rebuffed offers from Seoul on food aid and talks. “We don't in any way want confrontation with North Korea," said South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyeon. "Our position remains unchanged that we want to resolve all problems through dialogue between the South and the North” (Jae-Soon Chang, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 17). Back to top       U.K., Scottish Leaders Spar Over Nuclear Plans British nuclear submarines will continue to be based in Scotland despite opposition from Scottish lawmakers, British Defense Secretary John Hutton said yesterday (see GSN, April 11). London lawmakers approved a plan last year to modernize the nation’s fleet of Trident missile-carrying submarines based at Faslane on the River Clyde in Scotland (see GSN, March 15, 2007).  Scottish officials have complained, but have little direct authority to address the problem because British leaders in London retain power over security and foreign affairs for the entire United Kingdom. Hutton said during a visit to the naval base that the Trident fleet is a “vital part of our country’s defense,” the Scotsman newspaper reported.  Scrapping the sea-based deterrent would be an “incredible folly” and would amount to “national vandalism,” he said. Nuclear weapons have “helped secure the security of the United Kingdom from a very dangerous nuclear threat for a very long time,” Hutton added. The pro-independence Scottish National Party criticized his remarks and the planned submarine upgrade. “At a time of economic downturn and substantial pressure on government spending, it is utterly irresponsible to waste anything up to 100 billion [British pounds] on a new generation of unnecessary and unwanted weapons of mass destruction — dumped in Scotland against the wishes of Scotland’s Parliament,” party minister Bruce Crawford said yesterday (Craig Brown, The Scotsman, Oct. 17). Back to top       Court Sentences German for Nuclear Transfers A German court yesterday sentenced Gotthard Lerch to 5 1/2 years in prison after convicting him of illegally transferring uranium enrichment technology to Libya before that country halted nuclear weapons development, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 10). The 65-year-old engineer “admitted having supported the production of … piping systems for a gas ultra centrifuge facility in South Africa,” the Stuttgart state court said, noting that the International Atomic Energy Agency believes the plant would have supported Libya’s nuclear work. “Libya was a good distance away from the final stages of an atomic weapon” when Lerch provided the enrichment centrifuge components between 1999 and 2003, but the engineer still knew the African nation had a nuclear weapons program, said Judge Juergen Niemeyer. Lerch could have been ordered to serve up to 15 years in prison for violating German export and weapons rules, but prosecutors had only requested a six-year sentence because the defendant acknowledged his involvement in the transfers.  His sentence was also reduced by one year because Lerch had already been jailed for 21 months. In admitting his involvement to the court, Lerch did not discuss prosecutors’ contention that he worked within the nuclear smuggling ring once run by former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan (Oliver Schmale, Associated Press/San Diego Union-Tribune, Oct. 16). Back to top

U.S. Limits Anthrax Vaccine Legal Liability By Elaine M. Grossman Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Health and Human Services Department early this month moved to shield government, industry and business officials from lawsuits filed by those who have received the anthrax vaccine (see GSN, Sept. 5, 2007). Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt established legal immunity for public and private officials who oversee the production or distribution of the anthrax vaccine by declaring a “public health emergency” due to the risk of a bioterrorism attack.  He said the emergency began on Oct. 1 and would run through Dec. 31, 2015. U.S. law provides protection from lawsuits to individuals responsible for selected countermeasures, including antibiotics, during a declared emergency.  Under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act, which President George W. Bush signed into law in December 2005, a health and human services secretary’s emergency declaration can limit financial risk for government program planners and the manufacturers or distributors of pharmaceutical countermeasures.  One exception to this immunity would be willful misconduct on the part of covered individuals. The ramifications, in this instance, could be to prevent individuals who have received one or more anthrax inoculations from taking grievances to court, based on claims that the vaccine caused severe adverse reactions or did not work. The anthrax vaccine has proven particularly controversial following reports of serious adverse events, including some deaths, among U.S. recipients (see GSN, Nov. 21, 2005).  In addition, there are some doubts about the vaccine’s efficacy in protecting people from developing anthrax after breathing in spores during a biological attack. A 2003 lawsuit — based on lapses in the Food and Drug Administration’s drug-approval process for the vaccine — temporarily shut down the Defense Department’s compulsory anthrax shots program.  Mandatory inoculations resumed in 2006 for personnel whose assignments are judged to put them at heightened risk of exposure to anthrax (see GSN, Dec. 16, 2005). Leavitt’s declaration was published in the Federal Register and quietly heralded at the end of a two-page news release devoted largely to another anthrax-related initiative (see GSN, Oct. 2). Among the activities now afforded liability protection are those “related to developing, manufacturing, distributing, prescribing, dispensing, administering and using anthrax countermeasures in preparation for, and in response to, a potential anthrax attack,” the HHS news release states.  “This includes entities, such as large ‘big-box’ retail stores, retail pharmacies, and other private sector businesses, that help to deliver and distribute medicines.” Health and Human Services argued the legal shield is essential to guarantee that countermeasures are there if U.S. citizens need them. “Providing liability protection to all involved in such efforts will help ensure their full participation and bolster response efforts,” according to the news release. “Preparedness is a shared responsibility that must involve all sectors of society, including the private sector, community groups, families and individuals,” Leavitt stated in the release.  “We are using the authorities available to us to do all we can to support preparedness at all levels.” The move comes as a pivotal advisory group convened by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention prepares to decide whether state and local health officials should consider giving anthrax vaccines to as many as 3 million civilian first responders nationwide (see GSN, Oct. 16). Millions of U.S. military personnel have already received the vaccines since the Pentagon’s shots program began in 1997, but the law prohibits service members or their families from holding the government liable for injury or death.  Now that the population of vaccine recipients could expand to include millions of civilians — who normally do have a right to take medical injury claims to court — federal response planners and government contractors might be growing nervous about their potential legal vulnerability, according to vaccine critics. “There are people still getting ill from side effects and from the vaccine,” John Michels, an attorney in litigation targeting the Pentagon’s inoculation program, told Global Security Newswire this week.  “When they expand this vaccine from the military population to a civilian population, they’re going to have people who sue.” Emergent BioSolutions of Rockville, Md. — the nation’s only manufacturer of an FDA-approved anthrax vaccine — recently announced that Health and Human Services had ordered 14.5 million doses of its BioThrax vaccine, worth as much as $404 million.  The company is already under a $448 million contract to produce 18.8 million doses of the vaccine. The vaccine regimen calls for six shots over an 18 month period, plus annual boosters. Michels said commercial interests appear to be playing a role in the legal immunity issue.  He questioned whether there had been any bona fide escalation in the anthrax threat sufficient to justify the declaration of an emergency. “We have no indications [now] … that we’re much more likely to be attacked by anthrax,” Michels said.  “But [government officials] see the writing on the wall.  They see … an erosion of [lawsuit] immunity for vaccine manufacturers as a result of widespread civilian use.” Meryl Nass, a bioterrorism expert who has been highly critical of federal handling of anthrax vaccine issues, accused Leavitt of taking more interest in protecting bureaucrats from legal action than in protecting the public from health threats. “How do you decide there is an emergency when there is no evidence of one?” she asked in e-mailed comments last week.  Noting the HHS secretary’s designation of “governmental program planners” as among those afforded legal immunity by the declaration, Nass asserted that the agency “designates an emergency as a means to protect itself.” Leavitt’s declaration, though, states that “targeted liability protections for anthrax countermeasures” are “based on a credible risk that the threat of exposure to [anthrax] and the resulting disease constitutes a public health emergency.”  The document does not offer additional details on the nature or level of threat. A request that Health and Human Services elaborate on the basis for the public health emergency declaration went unanswered at press time. Back to top       Lab Security Report Alarms Lawmakers, Activists Activists and U.S. lawmakers are again questioning moves to build new high-security biodefense research sites following revelations of significant vulnerabilities at two laboratories already handling lethal biological agents, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 16). House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell (D-Mich.), this week reaffirmed his belief that the United States should stop building new laboratories to work with potential biological-weapon agents until existing sites address security problems like those noted in a Government Accountability Office report released yesterday. He made that argument in August in a letter to President George W. Bush that was co-written by Representative Bart Stupak (D-Mich.). The United States now has five Biosafety Level 4 laboratories authorized to work with the world’s deadliest biological agents, but sites now being designed and built could eventually boost the number substantially. "We understand we're not going to make the labs go away but we have a lot of concerns about safety,” said Beth Willis, a member of a citizen group located near the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md. “Biomedical research is very important,” she said.  “We're not saying it all should stop.  We are saying the size and scale of the ramp-up with pathogens, considered by the government to be biowarfare pathogens, is a dangerous thing. … It's an opportunity to say 'time out' and address this" (Larry Margasak, Associated Press/Google News, Oct. 16). Back to top

South Korea Completes Chemical Weapons Disposal By Chris Schneidmiller Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A chemical-armed nation, widely assumed to be South Korea, has finished destroying its stockpile under a global treaty, U.S. and international disarmament officials said this week (see GSN, April 8). “In 2008 another milestone was marked in the history of chemical disarmament when, on 10 July, a state party completed the destruction of its entire chemical weapons stockpile,” Rogelio Pfirter, head of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, said during an address Wednesday at the United Nations. Albania last year became the first nation to meet its disarmament obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention (see GSN, July 12, 2007).  The other known possessor states of weapons banned by the treaty are India, Libya, Russia and the United States. “I have wholeheartedly congratulated this second OPCW member for its achievement and for the unwavering commitment it has shown in reaching this important goal,” Pfirter said.  “The achievement of this state party takes us a step closer to the goal of complete disarmament and reinforces the validity of the CWC.” Statements this week by Pfirter and Eric Javits, U.S. ambassador to the Hague-based organization that monitors compliance with the treaty, appeared to be the first official acknowledgment of completion of the highly secretive program in South Korea.  As per the norm, they never identified the country in question by name, but references to “a state party” are understood to mean Seoul. The remarks were first noticed by Daniel Feakes of the University of Sussex. Pfirter’s organization today said it could provide no information except to confirm that on July 10 it verified full chemical weapons disposal by a state party.  The South Korean Embassy in Washington had not responded to requests for information by deadline today, while the U.S. State Department said it would respect the request for confidentiality of the state party. Seoul invoked a confidentiality clause in the convention that allows any member nation to withhold information about its stockpile of banned weapons or the destruction program, said Paul Walker, security and sustainability chief at Global Green USA.  Seoul went so far as to keep from being named as one of the world’s chemical weapons holders. Walker said that discussions with informed sources and his own research indicate that South Korea probably held between 3,000 and 3,500 metric tons of chemical warfare material.  That is likely to have included 400 to 1,000 metric tons of sarin nerve agent contained in artillery shells, while the rest could have been binary agents that would have become dangerous when mixed together. There are several possible reasons for South Korea’s refusal to address its possession or elimination of chemical weapons, Walker said.  Seoul might have wanted to avoid causing further complications in its always-tense relations with North Korea, which could have used public acknowledgment of the chemical stockpile as a justification for keeping its nuclear weapons, he said.  The strategy could also have been aimed at avoiding community outcry about how and where the destruction was carried out or to cover up any possible support South Korea received from the United States in building up its arsenal, according to Walker. Walker argued that South Korea misused the confidentiality clause, which he characterized as a security measure intended to protect vulnerable stockpiles from theft of weapons or other troubles. “It was never intended to hide the fact that the country had a stockpile, or it was never intended to hide what [destruction] technology they were using,” he said. The precedent set by South Korea could allow suspected chemical weapons possessors such as Egypt, Israel, North Korea and Syria to operate under similar levels of secrecy should they join the treaty and begin to eliminate their arsenals, according to Walker. Conversely, Seoul coming clean could increase pressure on Pyongyang to acknowledge its own alleged chemical weapons operations, Walker said.  That would, in turn, serve as a confidence-building measure in the six-nation negotiations aimed at elimination of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, he said (see related GSN story, today). “It’s worth their while really to come forth now with the whole story of how they did it and why they did it, you know, really turn it into a positive confidence-building measure on the Korean Peninsula,” Walker said. South Korea was the first nation to meet its treaty deadline for completion of all chemical agents, Walker noted.  The nation in 2006 received an extension to the end of this year. Albania went two months beyond its deadline to incinerate more than 16 metric tons of mustard agent.  India has until April 2009 and appears to have finished off more than 95 percent of a stockpile believed to consist of mustard agent.  Libya has not begun significant preparations for elimination of more than 23 metric tons of mustard agent and roughly 1,300 metric tons of nerve-agent precursors;  it could request an extension past its current deadline of Dec. 31, 2010, Walker said. The United States and Russia — both with arsenals of tens of thousands of tons of chemical warfare materials — have already received the full one-time, five-year deadline extension to April 2012.  Washington has acknowledged that work will not be complete by that time, while Walker said he doubts Moscow’s claims that it can meet the schedule. Back to top

North Korea Seeks Missile Improvements, U.S. Says The United States and South Korea have agreed to step up their joint defense efforts to address concerns that North Korea is seeking to refine its short-range missile capabilities, the Korea Times reported today (see GSN, March 9). “Seoul and Washington agreed to push for the transfer of wartime operational control as scheduled and strengthen cooperation in dealing with North Korea's military ambitions,” a South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman said.  “The U.S. warned the North is engaging in efforts to improve its short-range missiles.  Both countries agreed the North's missile development could be a serious security threat to Northeast Asia.” High-level U.S. and South Korean military personnel considered North Korea’s missile and nuclear activities during talks yesterday at the Pentagon, the Defense Ministry said.  U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates was set to meet today with Lee Sang-hee, his South Korean counterpart (Na Jeong-ju, Korea Times, Oct. 17). Back to top       Canadian Allegedly Aided Iranian Missile Work German authorities have arrested a 61-year-old Canadian entrepreneur for allegedly supplying equipment to an Iranian firm engaged in ballistic missile work, the CanWest News Service reported yesterday (see GSN, July 18). The Iranian-Canadian citizen had collected intelligence for Germany from inside Iran for more than 10 years, Der Spiegel reported.  However, he did not inform Germany’s foreign intelligence service that a company he operated was dealing with the Iranian firm in violation of German sanctions, the magazine said. The intelligence agency opposed the arrest, noting the man’s value as a spy, but Germany only pardons such trade breaches if their prosecution would violate national security law, CanWest reported. The German federal prosecutor’s office believes the man routed two equipment deliveries to Iran in the past year to aid its production of Shahab rockets, weapons considered capable of delivering conventional and possibly nuclear warheads to Israel or other targets within 800 to 1,000 miles (see related GSN story, today). German authorities said the shipments contained dual-use components, but they did not specify the exact nature of the equipment.  The man had allegedly planned two additional deliveries, seemingly using a firm based in Germany (Ian MacLeod, CanWest News Service/Edmonton Journal, Oct. 16) Back to top

Congress Backs Space-Based Missile Defense Study U.S. lawmakers have approved $5 million for the first review of a possible space-based missile defense system since the 1990s, the Washington Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 13). Senator Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), a strong missile defense proponent, said the study’s passage within a larger funding bill signals the demand for robust protection against enemy ballistic missiles as well as measures to help guard key satellites. “We have the potential to expand our space-based capabilities from mere space situational awareness to space protection," Kyl said Sept. 29 on the floor of the Senate.  "In the past 15 years, the ballistic missile threat has substantially increased and is now undeniable." He added that the Defense Department has expressed concern about the ramifications of China’s 2007 antisatellite test (see GSN, Jan. 19, 2007) and about the potential for the Asian nation to fire long-range missiles either accidentally or without authorization. President George W. Bush has concentrated on deploying sea-based missile defenses and the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system in Alaska and California, but a defense official said a space-based system would be the only means of guarding against missile threats worldwide. "It's really the only way to defend the U.S. and its allies from anywhere on the planet," the official said (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Oct. 16). Back to top       Germany Tests Missile Interceptor German air force crews conducted a successful missile defense test of a Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptor yesterday at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico, contractor Lockheed Martin announced (see GSN, June 5). “Today's successful flight test marks another significant milestone” for the German program to upgrade its missile defenses, said U.S. Army Lt. Col. Anthony Brown.  “We continue to build on the legacy of this superb weapon system as a key element for the free world's defense” (Lockheed Martin release, Oct. 16). In late 2006, Germany announced its intention to purchase up to 72 PAC-3 interceptors and related equipment in a deal that could total up to $300 million (Defense Update, Sept. 7, 2006).  The European nation has sold older, less-capable PAC-2 interceptors to South Korea (see GSN, Sept. 16).   Back to top

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