Congressional investigators have criticized methods used to evaluate a next-generation radiation detector, shown scanning a truck (U.S. Sandia National Laboratories photo). DHS Exaggerated Nuclear Detector Ability, GAO Says The U.S. Government Accountability Office has found that the Homeland Security Department exaggerated the ability of a new generation of radiation sensors to detect materials that could be used in a radiological or nuclear weapon, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 7)...Full Story

North Korea Nuclear Talks Coming, China Says Host country China said today that another round of six-nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear program is expected in the near future, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Oct. 29)...Full Story

FBI Busts Anthrax Mail Hoaxer The FBI arrested a California man yesterday for allegedly mailing packages with sugar packets labeled as anthrax, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 14)...Full Story

	Thursday, October 30, 2008

Iran Has Potential WMD Capabilities, Reports Say Iran’s growing industrial and medical capabilities could enable the country to produce chemical or biological weapons if it chose to do so, security expert Anthony Cordesman said in two draft reports released this month (see GSN, Feb. 26). “Iran‘s technology base is advanced enough … so that Iran retains some capability to make chemical weapons, and it may have inactive or mothballed facilities.  While there have been no public reports of active production, this is possible and such efforts can occur at low levels and be easy to conceal,” Cordesman, an analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in a draft report on Iran’s potential chemical-weapon capabilities. Iran was subjected to chemical weapons strikes during its war with Iraq in the 1980s and rejects claims that it today possesses such a capability itself. U.S. intelligence officials and other sources continue to assert the existence of an active Iranian chemical weapons program, but “Iran‘s current status as a chemical weapons power is simply impossible to determine,” the report states. Difficulties of deploying chemical weapons make the potential lethality of an Iranian arsenal uncertain, but the “psychological, terror, and political impacts” of such weaponry could have considerable value in deterring attacks on the nation’s nuclear sites, Cordesman suggested. “An Iranian missile force known to be armed with chemical warheads — even less effective unitary warheads — would give Iran a rapid way of deploying a form of weapon of mass destruction that would almost certainly have a major impact on how its neighbors view the risk of supporting U.S. military action and might have a deterrent impact on Israel,” the report states. Similar uncertainties surround Iran’s possible current work on a biological weapons program, which the nation also denies, Cordesman said in a separate draft report (see GSN, Sept. 7, 2005). “The world market in biotechnology, food processing, pharmaceutical, and other related equipment has grown so large, has so many dual-use items, and has such weak controls, that it is impossible to know what Iran has purchased and is purchasing, and from whom they are purchasing such items from,” the report states, noting that Iran has purchased such equipment from countries across Europe and Asia. “What is clear is that Iran has become a country with a relatively advanced base in biotechnology, which has extensive laboratory and research capability, and steadily improving industrial facilities with dual-use production capabilities with all of the equipment necessary to produce wet and dry storable biological weapons.” While the spread of biological weapon agents is often unpredictable, Iran “should be able to deploy weapons with at least the lethality that militarized anthrax had reached during the Cold War,” Cordesman said (Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire, Oct. 29). Back to top       Canada Preparing for WMD Strikes at 2010 Olympics A team of Canadian security specialists yesterday said it is preparing strategies to defend against potential attacks involving weapons of mass destruction at the 2010 Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver, the Vancouver Sun reported today (see GSN, Oct. 29). The threat of WMD attacks has long been a focus of the Vancouver 2010 Integrated Security Unit, a group overseen by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.  The team would not reveal any of its specific preparations for such incidents, threats that it said have taken high priority since Vancouver was awarded the 2010 Olympics four years ago. "If they are not thinking about this, then they're not doing their jobs," said security analyst David Harris, former strategic operations director for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. "We are involved in a technological war with actual adversaries and we have seen ample evidence of medieval minds that are consumed with finding the means of intimidating and destroying civilization,” he said. "If you get a lousy little radiological weapon made from material cast off by a hospital, and set off with dynamite, you have the possibility of an entire city being contaminated," Harris added, describing a potential radiological “dirty bomb” attack.  "I am deeply concerned that we might not be in a position to anticipate and deal realistically with these kinds of threats." More than 100 Canadian emergency responders and military personnel this week were briefed on potential attacks at the Olympics that could involve deadly materials such as ricin, mustard blister agent, sarin nerve agent or radiological and nuclear substances.  They were also provided information on “multithreat detection systems” capable of scanning for WMD ingredients across large areas. "It is becoming good practice that when you have events that are high-profile, that attract a lot of media attention and a lot of people, that law enforcement agencies need to err on the side of caution," said Mark Deasey, a spokesman for security equipment supplier MSA (Jeff Lee, Vancouver Sun, Oct. 30). Back to top

North Korea Nuclear Talks Coming, China Says Host country China said today that another round of six-nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear program is expected in the near future, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Oct. 29). “The relevant parties have agreed to hold the next round of six-party talks at the earliest convenient time," said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu.  “At present China is keeping communication and coordination with other parties about the specific date for the next round of meetings.” Jiang did not offer a specific date for the meeting between diplomats from China, Japan, Russia, the United States and both Koreas. The talks would follow the latest threat to the denuclearization process that was formalized last year when Pyongyang agreed to give up its nuclear program in exchange for economic, diplomatic and security assistance from the other nations.  North Korea in August halted and then began to reverse disablement of key plants at its plutonium-producing Yongbyon nuclear complex.  It reversed the reversal, and agreed to allow verification of its atomic activities, after the Bush administration removed the regime from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Oct. 30). Advisers to Senators Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), the major party candidates for president, have said the men would not abandon the six-party process if elected, AFP reported. “The first thing that has to happen is we need to have a six-party meeting to formalize the verification protocol and get verification under way," said Obama foreign policy adviser Frank Jannuzi  “So that is a procedural step that may happen before the next president takes office, hopefully.  If it doesn't, it will be one of the first ... business for the new president." “I would not advocate halting the six-party process completely but I think that there is going to have to be some top-down strategic rethinking beginning with our allies and obviously talking to China," said Michael Green, who is advising McCain on Asia.  “Our allies will have a special place, they are more shaken than anyone else by some of the recent developments.” Green was referring to Japan’s displeasure over the delisting of North Korea, AFP reported.  Tokyo had urged Washington to delay the move until Pyongyang had fully addressed the status of all Japanese citizens abducted in the 1970s and 1980s for use as instructors for North Korean spies. The United States retains “lots of leverage” on North Korea, Jannuzi said. Delisting had "zero impact on frozen North Korea financial assets, zero impact on North Korea's access to international lending and zero impact on North Korea's economic circumstances," he said. Green, though, argued that the Bush administration action sent “a signal to North Korea that we don’t care about” reports that the regime had supported construction of a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor destroyed last year by Israel (see related GSN story, today). Attention is needed to suspected North Korean proliferation activities, both advisers said. “The U.S. is going to expect North Korea to provide clarity and if we get it, we will be able to move forward and if we don't, we are going to have to reassess and sort with our allies in the six-party process on what to do with that," according to Jannuzi (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Oct. 30). Back to top       Syria Could Allow IAEA to Revisit Alleged Nuke Site Syria might allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to return to a suspected former nuclear site, potentially stepping back from an earlier statement that Damascus would reject further visits, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 29). The U.N. nuclear watchdog could not reach a final conclusion from a June evaluation of the site, where a 2007 Israeli air strike destroyed a building that allegedly housed an incomplete plutonium production reactor.  Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Fayssal Mekdad said his government was still awaiting details from the agency’s analysis, which indicated a need for further investigation, diplomats said Tuesday. "They should make a request and we will study it," Mekdad said. However, Mekdad added that Syria would not allow U.N. inspectors to visit three other areas reportedly connected to the bombed facility on grounds that they are in controlled military zones. "There isn't a country in the world which allows inspections of its military sites," he said (Albert Aji, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Oct. 29). Back to top       Nuclear Experts Discuss Terror-Prevention Strategies Controlling the production of fissile material is the key step toward preventing nuclear terrorism and proliferation, two experts agreed last week while diverging on the merits of U.S. port security programs and nuclear weapons plans, the American Association for the Advancement of Science said yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 8). “Fissile material is the key,” said Robert Gallucci, a former State Department official who now leads Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.  The goal of stopping fissile material production for weapons is particularly strong for addressing the North Korean nuclear crisis, he said in an Oct. 20 AAAS discussion. “We do not want them producing fissile material.  That's it,” he said, adding that he was less concerned about North Korea having nuclear weapons than the prospects of Pyongyang selling fissile material to terrorists. U.S. programs to detect and deter such transfers by scanning U.S.-bound cargo ships for radiation could be useful, he said, but ultimately miss the point. “It is great to have port monitors," but they are "largely a CYA exercise,” Gallucci said.  If technicians detect bomb material at a U.S. entry point, “you're already in a bad place.” A former U.S. nuclear-weapon designer disagreed somewhat, arguing that port scanners create a barrier to smugglers that complement other antiterrorism efforts. “It will always be possible for someone to smuggle through” some fissile material, said Richard Wagner, a senior scientist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, but intelligence-gathering and other surveillance programs can support the port detection programs. Gallucci cautioned that a global expansion of nuclear power would create new interest in building uranium enrichment and plutonium separation facilities, both of which could be modified to manufacture nuclear-weapon materials.  He recommended that future nuclear power fuel be used once and then placed in long-term storage instead of reprocessed for extraction of plutonium. The two experts also discussed Bush administration ambitions to design a new nuclear warhead that proponents have argued could be deployed without explosive testing and would be designed to have a long-term shelf life. U.S. lawmakers over the past two years rejected efforts to fund the Reliable Replacement Warhead, but administration officials have continued to promote the concept (see GSN, Oct. 29). Gallucci said it was “counterintuitive” to replace an arsenal of fully tested warheads with a new, untested version.  “I am very skittish about this,” he said. Wagner, however, said he believed the new design would work. The design is "easily traceable to tested designs ... I'm pretty convinced that the RRW will be more reliable without testing than the old weapons as they degrade,” he said (American Association for the Advancement of Science release, Oct. 29). Back to top

FBI Busts Anthrax Mail Hoaxer The FBI arrested a California man yesterday for allegedly mailing packages with sugar packets labeled as anthrax, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 14). The packages contained a compact disc with the label “Anthrax:  Shock and Awe Terror” and included a sugar packet labeled “Anthrax sample” and displaying a biohazard symbol. Authorities charged 66-year-old Marc Keyser of Sacramento with three federal counts of sending a hoax letter, AP reported.  FBI Special Agent Steve Dupre said Keyser had mailed more than 120 of the packages, some of which still might not have been delivered or opened.  None of the packages examined to date have contained hazardous materials, according to the FBI. Dupre said the Keyser mailings did not appear to be related to a spate of recent suspicious powder mailings to financial institutions (see GSN, Oct. 23). Recipients of the reported Keyser packages included the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Seattle Times and the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.  Also receiving the mailing were the Modesto office of U.S. Representative George Radanovich (R-Calif.) and a Sacramento McDonald’s restaurant, according to AP. The FBI initiated its investigation Monday after one of the packages arrived at The Atlantic magazine in Washington, AP reported (Sudhin Thanawala, Associated Press/Monterey County Herald, Oct. 30). After an Atlantic intern opened the package — marked with Keyser’s return mailing address, a Web site address and a phone number — supervisors assessed that the letter appeared to be a poorly crafted publicity effort for a documentary film.  Nevertheless, they called authorities and soon a Joint Terrorism Task Force was on the scene, including representatives from the FBI, the Homeland Security Department, the U.S. Postal Inspection Service, and local fire and police officials. Asked if the federal response was perhaps excessive, one FBI agent at the scene quipped, “If you think this is disproportionate, you should see when we really overreact.” Two personnel in hazardous material protection suits removed the package and its contents.  No Atlantic staffers were tested for exposure to chemical or biological materials, nor was anyone asked to leave the offices in the Watergate office complex. “Upon examining the letter and the application of field tests, it was determined that there were no direct threats made and no harmful contents to the letter, in addition to no nexus to terrorism,” FBI spokeswoman Debbie Weierman told Global Security Newswire.  Nevertheless, “any mailing that even threatens to have a biohazard or some sort of chemical, that's a federal offense,” she added. As a precautionary move, the office building temporarily shut down its air-conditioning and ventilation system, a maintenance worker said. A History of Mailings Keyser conducted a similar mailing to a local weekly paper in Sacramento in January 2007. In that case, he mailed what appeared to be a CD book and an aerosol can labeled “anthrax” with a biohazard symbol.  An accompanying letter said, “Don’t think terrorism’s dead just because Osama bin Laden is cornered somewhere in Afghanistan,” according to a report on the incident by the recipient, the Sacramento News & Review. Keyser later said he was trying only to raise awareness of bioterror threats. “Sorry about the misunderstanding.  I sent you the dummy spray of anthrax to alert you to the danger of an anthrax terror attack in Los Angeles at McDonald’s and Wal-Marts in shopping centers that triggers mass hysteria in a population of 10,000 unvaccinated commuters in rush hour traffic turning L.A. into a death trap which triggers mass panic in every city in America (including Sacramento) sending 290,000 million unvaccinated inhabitants in rush hour traffic to the nearest hospital and turns cities into death traps, crashing the stock market, collapsing the economy — not to trigger mass hysteria in your office,” he wrote in an e-mail to the News & Review. “The FBI showed up at my door and said it caused a bit of a scare.  We had a nice chat.  They and their families are not vaccinated.  But they carry guns,” he added. The News & Review had written a 2002 story about Keyser when he was raising concerns about the safety of the Sacramento-area public water supplies.  Two years later, a Sacramento television station reported that Keyser canvassed Sacramento streets seeking funds to promote antiterrorist training for police and fire departments. In 1998, the San Francisco Examiner reported that Keyser had mailed 4,000 bogus “billing” statements to Californians as part of a confusing program to promote AIDS awareness (Webb/Grossman, Global Security Newswire, Oct. 30). Back to top

World Destroys 41 Percent of Chemical Warfare Agents The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has announced that more than 41 percent of all chemical warfare material declared under an international treaty has been eliminated, Interfax reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 29). The figure accounts for 28,600 metric tons removed from declared chemical warfare stockpiles in India, Russia, the United States and other countries, said Krzysztof Paturej, head of the OPCW special projects office. Paturej said that Albania and one additional Chemical Weapons Convention signatory — a nation widely assumed to be South Korea — have completely destroyed their chemical arsenals (see GSN, Oct. 17). India has eliminated 97 percent of its chemical weapons and is on track to destroy its remaining stockpile by next April, he said. The United States has provided significant assistance in destroying the chemical weapons of other nations, and has eliminated 15,400 metric tons, or 55 percent, of its own chemical stockpile, Paturej added (Interfax, Oct. 29). Back to top       Pueblo CW Disposal Buildings Being Built Construction is under way of the two primary facilities that will conduct disposal operations for the stockpile of chemical warfare materials stored at the Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado, the Pueblo Chieftain reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 22). The Assembled Chemical Weapons Alternatives program for this fiscal year received $62 million for construction at Pueblo and $75 million for related research, design, testing and evaluation activities. Steel girders are being raised at the Agent Processing Building and 750 yards of concrete flooring is scheduled to be poured today.  Work is also ongoing at the Enhanced Reconfiguration Building, which would be used to remove explosives from munitions. A state permits allow for completion of construction and for installation and testing of equipment, but actual operations would require further approval. Contractor Bechtel expected to complete construction in spring 2013 and to begin chemical neutralization of 2,611 tons of mustard blister agent by January 2015.  Operations, under the current schedule, would continue through 2020. Congress has demanded that the complete U.S. stockpile of chemical warfare materials be eliminated by the end of 2017.  The Pentagon is considering its options for meeting the deadline, said Gary Anderson, ACWA manager at Pueblo. “Our best opportunities to accelerate are during construction,” he said.  Increased funding could increase the pace of construction.  However, once operations begin, the speed of disposal would be limited by the plant’s capacity. Disposal will involve removal of fuses and blasters from 780,000 artillery shells and mortar rounds, which would then move along an automated carrier so they could be drained of mustard agent.  The agent would be neutralized through use of hot water and other materials.  Wastewater produced by the process would be stored for later treatment (John Norton, Pueblo Chieftain, Oct. 29). Back to top

Next U.S. President to Continue European Missile Defense Project, Agency Chief Says The head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency believes the next president is likely to maintain the Bush administration’s effort to deploy missile defenses in Europe, United Press International reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 29). Senator John McCain (Ariz.), the Republican candidate, has expressed his support for deployment of an early warning radar system in the Czech Republic and 10 missile interceptors in Poland, according to the EU Observer.  His opponent, Democratic Senator Barack Obama (Ill.), however, has pledged to “shift federal resources away from an unproven missile defense system to proven technology.” Persuading either candidate to support the initiative is a "matter of better education and better information,” Lt. Gen. Henry Obering told the Observer. “If you don't have national security it won't matter what your economy is doing because you won't be able to protect your citizens and their jobs," he said (United Press International, Oct. 29). The Czech government has signed two treaties to enable the United States to erect a radar on Czech soil, but the nation’s parliament has final say in the matter.  Lawmakers in the lower house of parliament began debating ratification yesterday. However, Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek said lawmakers should not decide the matter until the next U.S. president is in office, Agence France-Presse reported. “We want a delay to make sure about the attitude of the new American administration,” Topolanek said yesterday. While there has been significant opposition from lawmakers and the Czech public to hosting a U.S. military base, Topolanek said that “the threat of ballistic missiles is potentially possible.  I want to state clearly to the citizens of the Czech Republic, the installation of this base is in our interest” (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Oct. 29). Russia has objected vociferously to the U.S. plan, characterizing it as a security threat and threatening a military response.  Washington says the European system is intended to provide defenses against a potential Iranian missile threat (see GSN, Oct. 29). U.S. officials have tried to allay Moscow’s concerns with concessions that would include allowing Russian officials to inspect the missile shield installations. “Russia received an offer to participate in the whole system and it decided to reject it,” Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg said yesterday.  “The form of Russia’s possible participation in the project will continue to be negotiated.  Permanent Russian military presence at the base is unacceptable for both the Czech Republic and Poland” (Czech News Agency, Oct. 29). A senior Russian general offered the latest threat of a military response to the missile defense sites, Interfax reported yesterday. “In this situation, Russia will not pretend that nothing has happened.  It is quite natural that the situation is forcing us to take measures to parry the threat in response,” Lt. Gen. Alexander Burutin, first deputy chief of staff of the Russian military, told the Rossiiskaya Gazeta. “In particular, the matter involves the adjustment of the strategic nuclear forces development plans and the program of the development of the Russian armed forces aimed at maintaining the necessary deterrence potential,” he added.  “It makes sense to be more active in concluding international agreements on reducing weapons of mass destruction and nonproliferation of missile weapons and missile technology” (Interfax, Oct. 29). Russian military representatives were in Cuba this week for talks officially aimed at discussing collaboration in the upkeep of air-defense systems.  However, independent experts said the talks are likely to address responses to the U.S. missile shield initiative, according to Gazeta.ru. “Although it will be denied officially, Russia’s actions are clearly a reply to the deployment of U.S. ballistic missile defense systems in the Czech Republic and Poland, and to NATO’s decision to help Georgia restore its air-defense system,” said Alexander Pikayev of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Reports in July indicated that Russia might deploy nuclear-capable strategic bombers to its island ally (see GSN, July 22).  One analyst said he foresaw even more extensive deployments, including aircraft, warships and submarines. “At first the sides may plan joint war games, and will later discuss arms supplies,” said Anatoly Tsyganok of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis (Igor Artemyev, Gazeta.ru, Oct. 29). Back to top

DHS Exaggerated Nuclear Detector Ability, GAO Says The U.S. Government Accountability Office has found that the Homeland Security Department exaggerated the ability of a new generation of radiation sensors to detect materials that could be used in a radiological or nuclear weapon, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 7). The yet-unpublished congressional report states that “Phase 3” tests of the Advanced Spectroscopic Portal monitors were too limited in scope to support the department’s assertion that the machines can detect dangerous radiation sources significantly more effectively than sensors already deployed at U.S. entry points. "Because the limitations of the Phase 3 test results are not appropriately stated in the Phase 3 test report, the report does not accurately depict the results from the tests and could be misleading," the report states. Congressional investigators determined that the new machines would each cost roughly $778,000 to purchase and install.  That is a significantly higher estimate than provided in 2006. "I'm concerned that the testing for the new detectors remains flawed," said House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell (D-Mich.).  “Until there is objective and concrete evidence that the new machines have clear benefits over the existing detectors, I cannot support additional procurements." However, Homeland Security’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office dismissed the GAO findings as “misleading and not substantiated.”   In a written response to the report, the office accused congressional auditors of failing “to acknowledge the depth and breadth” of the detector tests. The department said in a statement that the office "is currently undertaking a comprehensive test and evaluation program on ASP systems and will use previous test data as well.  The department has been following a prudent path leading to certification of ASP systems." Previous GAO reports raising concerns about the detectors led lawmakers to demand that Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff certify the effectiveness of the machines prior to their installation.  Chertoff ordered the DNDO tests partly to support his certification (Robert O’Harrow, Washington Post, Oct. 30). Former U.S. nuclear negotiator Robert Gallucci last week described use of radiation-detection systems at U.S. entry points as a last-resort measure, the American Association for the Advancement of Science reported (see related GSN story, today). "I think it is great to have port monitors," he said, but said the machines were "largely a CYA exercise."  If detectors identified a weapon being smuggled into the country, "you're already in a bad place," he said during an Oct. 20 discussion on nuclear security (American Association for the Advancement of Science release, Oct. 29). Back to top

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