International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei (left) meets Saturday with Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran agreed during ElBaradei’s visit to answer remaining questions regarding its nuclear history (Agence France-Presse/Getty Images). Iran to Provide Final Nuclear Details, IAEA Says Iran intends in the next month to resolve any remaining questions regarding its nuclear history, the International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 11). IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran over the weekend to discuss the “work plan” on Iranian nuclear transparency, the Associated Press reported. Along with the four-week pledge, ElBaradei received additional details regarding Iran’s “new generation of centrifuges,” a spokeswoman said...Full Story

GAO Lashes U.S. Nonproliferation Program By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A U.S. program intended to keep Russian weapons scientists employed and prevent them from selling information or assistance to other nations has directed significant amounts of money to scientists not claiming to have weapons-related experience, the Government Accountability Office reported Friday (see GSN, Nov. 6, 2006)...Full Story

Syria Rebuilds Attack Site Construction is under way at a Syrian site Israel bombed last year, starting with a roof that could obscure building details below, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Jan. 8)...Full Story

	Monday, January 14, 2008

FBI Picks Antiterror Chief as Agent Assails Agency The FBI announced Friday the appointment of a seasoned terrorism expert to the agency’s highest-level national security slot (see GSN, Sept. 27, 2007). The appointment, however, came as one agent told the Washington Post that the agency’s counterterrorism staff are still largely in the dark when it comes to Middle Eastern culture, the Arabic language or the psychology of would-be terrorists. Agent Bassem Youssef claims he was passed over for advancement following the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and in comments published in the Post said lack of necessary knowledge has led FBI investigators astray in terrorism investigations. There where instances in which agents focused on the wrong people in investigations while overlooking others who should have been under watch, he said. “We are … really misreading the investigations and the motives and the threats.  We’re looking at this case as something that is an emergency and exigent when it really isn’t,” said Youssef, who manages an agency office involved in gathering phone records relevant in counterterrorism cases. Assistant Director John Miller told the Post that the FBI’s work has been effective, thwarting “a dozen plots” against this country in conjunction with U.S. intelligence agencies and international partners. Still, he acknowledged the agency has had a hard time hiring Arabs due to the competing draw from other intelligence agencies and the private sector. Beginning to develop counterterrorism expertise only in the late 1990s, the FBI needed time to place experienced hands into top jobs, Miller said. The most recent appointment places Arthur Cummings II, a former Navy SEAL, 20-year agency veteran and current counterterrorism division head in the position of executive assistant director for national security.  The post carries the responsibility for all FBI counterterrorism efforts as well as intelligence gathering and counterespionage work (John Solomon, Washington Post, Jan. 12). Back to top

GAO Lashes U.S. Nonproliferation Program By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A U.S. program intended to keep Russian weapons scientists employed and prevent them from selling information or assistance to other nations has directed significant amounts of money to scientists not claiming to have weapons-related experience, the Government Accountability Office reported Friday (see GSN, Nov. 6, 2006). Also, about 15 percent of the scientists involved in the cases GAO auditors looked at were born in 1970 or later, making them too young to have had a hand in Soviet-era WMD efforts.  “This is contrary to the original intent of the program, which was to reduce the proliferation risk posed by Soviet-era weapons scientist,” government auditors wrote. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, there was a growing concern that indigent but experienced former Soviet scientists could spread the knowledge necessary for nuclear, chemical or biological weapons programs. To mitigate potential proliferation risks, the Energy Department in 1994 established the Initiatives for Proliferation Prevention to engage former Soviet scientists in nonmilitary work in the short term and in the longer term create sustainable private sector employment. More than a decade later, however, the GAO report calls for the Energy Department to seriously re-evaluate the program and come up with a strategy to discontinue the efforts. “DOE has not developed an exit strategy for the IPP program, even though officials from the Russian government, Russian and Ukrainian institutes, and U.S. companies raised questions about the continuing need for the program,” government auditors write. One senior Russian atomic official told GAO investigators that his nation’s reinvigorated economy has pushed the program into irrelevance and that scientists there no longer pose a proliferation risk. In fiscal 2007, Congress appropriated $28 million for the program.  “Due to the serious nature of these finding, we recommend that DOE perform a comprehensive reassessment of the IPP program to help Congress determine whether to continue to fund the program,” auditors wrote. While agreeing with a number of the GAO recommendations, such as the call for more rigorous documentation to establish scientists’ WMD background and better ways to measure the number of private sector jobs created, the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration disagreed with the report’s overall conclusion. The administration, which oversees the programs, disputes the final GAO recommendation that the necessity of the program be reassessed, its associate administrator wrote in a letter drafted in response to the report. As of April 2007, the Energy Department claimed to have engaged nearly 17,000 scientists in Russia and other countries, but the Government Accountability Office report points out that this includes both those with and without weapons-related experience. In its analysis of 97 IPP projects involving roughly 6,500 scientists, auditors concluded that more than half did not claim to have any specific weapons-related background.  Those scientists received 40 percent, or about $10 million, of funding for those projects. Officials from 10 Russian and Ukrainian scientific institutes said the U.S. funding helps them attract and retain younger scientists who would have otherwise emigrated to the United States or western European nations, the Government Accountability Office reported. Representative John Dingell (D-Mich.), chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, told the Associated Press that the “GAO has raised troubling questions about whether a nonproliferation program has perversely funded a younger generation of (Russian) weapons scientists.” The Energy Department claims to have created more than 2,700 long-term private sector jobs, but those accomplishments also have been overstated, government auditors concluded.  The figure is uncertain because the agency relies on “good-faith reporting form U.S. industry partners and foreign institutes” and does not independently verify the numbers, the report says. GAO officials also found that 97 percent of the funds being spent on nonproliferation projects in Libya through May 2007 were actually being spent in domestic DOE laboratories to pay for project management and oversight.  Statutory restrictions on the program limit the percentage of such spending to no more than 35 percent. Back to top       South Korea Could Join PSI, Report Says The government of South Korean President-elect Lee Myung-bak might be more willing than its predecessor to join a U.S.-led program to interdict weapons of mass destruction on the high seas, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Nov. 14, 2006). The current liberal government in Seoul declined to join the Proliferation Security Initiative for fear of angering North Korea.  Pyongyang has threatened “catastrophic consequences” should South Korea sign on to the effort. To date, South Korean officials have only observed ship-boarding drills conducted by nations participating in the initiative, which is intended to prevent trade in unconventional weapons and WMD technology. “It’s difficult to make an immediate conclusion because it’s a sensitive issue that can affect relations with North Korea.  But we will continue to consider it over time,” a transition team member for Lee’s administration told the Chosun Ilbo newspaper. The conservative Lee administration is expected to take a harder line against its Stalinist neighbor after it takes office Feb. 25.  Lee also hopes to boost trust between Seoul and Washington, AP reported (Associated Press I, Jan. 12). The South Korean Foreign Ministry recommended to Lee’s team during a Jan. 4 briefing that the government should look at joining the initiative, AP reported.  However, there has been no further consideration of the matter. “It’s something we can think about over the long term, but it’s not an issue that needs immediate discussion,” transition team spokesman Lee Dong-kwan told reporters (Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, Jan. 13). Back to top       Army Renames WMD Training School The U.S. Army Chemical School has received a new name to reflect its expanded mission of combating other weapons of mass destruction, the Army announced Friday (see GSN, May 20, 2002). The new name, the Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear School, better describes the facility’s purpose, said Brig. Gen Thomas Spoehr, head of the Army Chemical Corps.  The school is based at Fort Leonard Wood, Mo. “The name is a mouthful,” Spoehr conceded, but “the chief of staff of the Army, Gen. George Casey, recently stated that the threat from WMD is perhaps the most troublesome issue facing our Army.” “In response to changing threats, we have deliberately sought and achieved a balance among the areas of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear training in our courses,” he added. To boost its capability, the Army recently authorized an order of 95 Stryker vehicles designed to detect WMD agents from greater distances than older Fox vehicles, the Associated Press reported The successful use of 10 prototypes in Iraq led to the larger purchase order, according to AP (see GSN, Jan. 12, 2007; Marcus Kabel, Associated Press/Belleville (Ill.) News Democrat, Jan. 11). Back to top

Iran to Provide Final Nuclear Details, IAEA Says Iran intends in the next month to resolve any remaining questions regarding its nuclear history, the International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 11). IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran over the weekend to discuss the “work plan” on Iranian nuclear transparency, the Associated Press reported. Along with the four-week pledge, ElBaradei received additional details regarding Iran’s “new generation of centrifuges,” a spokeswoman said. The P-2 equipment could enable Iran to increase the pace of its uranium enrichment activities, which could produce material for nuclear weapons.  Tehran says its atomic program is intended solely for energy production. The agency is now focusing its review of Iranian nuclear programs on components that U.S. officials have linked to weaponization, a diplomat told AP.  Among those are the “Green Salt” project, the status of enrichment technology, and highly enriched uranium traces found at a site connected to Iran’s military.  Iran is apparently now releasing information regarding those issues, the diplomat said. ElBaradei urged President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other top leaders to suspend uranium enrichment efforts, as demanded by the U.N. Security Council, the diplomat said.  Another diplomat said, though, that Tehran was not likely to be persuaded and that Western nations were likely to continue pushing for a third round of Security Council sanctions (George Jahn, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Jan. 13). “Answering questions about their past nuclear activities is a step, but they still need to suspend their enrichment and reprocessing activity,” said White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe. “Another declaration is no substitute for complying with the U.N. sanctions,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Jan. 13). Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told ElBaradei on Saturday that the nuclear issue should be moved from the Security Council back to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, AP reported. “There is no justification for Iran’s nuclear dossier to remain at the U.N. Security Council,” Khamenei said. Top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili reaffirmed Iran’s refusal to halt uranium enrichment, state television reported. “Iran, while insisting on its obvious rights in attaining and using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, is committed to its obligations under the” Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, he said (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press II/Charleston Daily Mail, Jan. 12). Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said today that “all options” remained under consideration to ensure Iran does become a nuclear weapon power, AP reported. “Israel clearly will not reconcile itself to a nuclear Iran,” Olmert told a parliamentary committee, according to a source at the session.  “All options to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capabilities are legitimate within the context of how to grapple with this matter” (Associated Press III/New York Times, Jan. 14). Back to top       Syria Rebuilds Attack Site Construction is under way at a Syrian site Israel bombed last year, starting with a roof that could obscure building details below, the Washington Post reported Saturday (see GSN, Jan. 8). The September bombing raised speculation that Syria had begun to build a small nuclear reactor with North Korean assistance.  Satellite imagery suggested that the structure’s dimensions were similar to a North Korean plutonium production reactor (see GSN, Oct. 24, 2007).  Israel has not officially commented on the air strike. The new building, however, is probably not going to be a nuclear facility, according to one expert. “It would be very unlikely for this to be a reactor, and we would be very surprised if they tried to put a reactor inside this building,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.  The dimensions of the new building appear to be different than the previous structure, he added (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, Jan. 12). After the Israeli attack, Syrian workers quickly razed the damaged structure, raising even more suspicions that Damascus was trying to conceal the site’s nuclear nature.  The new construction could also make it more difficult to investigate the previous building, the New York Times reported. “The new building,” Albright said, “covers whatever remained of the destroyed one.” The International Atomic Energy Agency has unsuccessfully asked to visit the site. “The Syrian brothers did not allow us to visit and inspect the location,” said agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei (William Broad, New York Times, Jan. 12). Back to top       Major Step Taken on Siberian Fossil Fuel Plant Key components of a fossil fuel power plant that the United States is helping refurbish in the Siberian city of Seversk have begun operating, the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration announced today (see GSN, Feb. 25, 2005). Officials describe the newly operational boiler and turbine as a crucial step toward closing down two weapon-grade plutonium production reactors in Russia.  The revamped facility is expected to help provide heat and electricity to Seversk, effectively replacing the energy produced by the two reactors built in the 1960s, according to the U.S. government statement. “This is an important milestone in a key international nonproliferation project,” said William Tobey, the agency’s deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation, in the press release.  “With boiler and turbine components operational, we have turned the corner from construction to operation.” Tobey called the development “a significant step toward shutting down the reactors,” which he said have produced 800 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium per year. Last March, the official told Congress the construction should be complete by December 2008, a deadline repeated in this week’s announcement (see GSN, Jan. 11). The agency is also building another fossil fuel facility to replace reactor power in Zheleznogorsk, allowing the last Russian weapon-grade plutonium production reactor to be closed by December 2010, according to the announcement.  Both projects are run by the agency’s Nuclear Risk Reduction Office, which aims to reduce weapon-grade materials around the globe (U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration release, Jan. 14). Back to top       South Korea Seeks North’s Disarmament by 2010 The South Korean Foreign Ministry wants to see nuclear disarmament of North Korea occur by 2010, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Jan. 11). The agency urged the incoming administration of President-elect Lee Myung-bak to set a disarmament schedule by midyear, the Yonhap News Agency reported.  In a report to the presidential transition team, the Foreign Ministry said it would press to “complete the nuclear dismantlement by 2010 with all nuclear materials, including plutonium, and detonators” removed from North Korea. The Foreign Ministry also wants to see peace talks to officially end the Korean War occur alongside the dismantlement effort, AFP reported. It was not immediately known if other nations involved in the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program were involved in developing the Foreign Ministry’s proposal. The nations are still waiting for Pyongyang to submit a full declaration of its atomic activities and to disable three key facilities as part of the ongoing denuclearization process.  The original deadline set for the work was Dec. 31 but has apparently been extended by Washington to Feb. 25, when the Lee administration takes power. “The disabling would be completed by March, given the time needed for removing nuclear spent fuel rods,” a diplomatic source told Yonhap.  “The declaration issue should also be settled by then.” In return for shuttering its nuclear programs, North Korea stands to receive energy aid and diplomatic and security benefits, including removal from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Jan. 13). The U.S. State Department on Friday denied resetting the nuclear declaration deadline, Kyodo News reported. “We are continuing to work toward the end of getting a declaration in, but there has been no new deadline set by the United States, by the North Koreans or by any other party in the six-party talks,” said spokesman Tom Casey (Kyodo News/Japan Today, Jan. 12). The South Korean president-elect said he would be open to meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in order to promote the denuclearization effort, AFP reported. “The leaders of the two Koreas can meet any time they believe it will help North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons and will also help both Koreas,” Lee said during a press conference. “If they sincerely fulfill the agreements reached at the six-party talks, we can advance the era of full-scale inter-Korean cooperation,” he added (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Jan. 14). Negotiators from the six nations — China, Japan, Russia, the United States and both Koreas — could meet again in coming weeks, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said Friday in Moscow. “I reckon the next six-party meeting could take place in the next few weeks, but everything depends on Beijing,” Hill said, according to ITAR-Tass.  “There is still much to do to conclude the process of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula” (Guy Faulconbridge, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Jan. 11). Back to top       Right, Wrong Calls Found in 1974 U.S. Nuclear Report A 1974 U.S. intelligence report correctly identified some budding nuclear weapons programs but also included some questionable assessments, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Dec. 3, 2007). The CIA last week released a declassified version of the 50-page Special National Intelligence Estimate, “Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.” The report stated that Israel “has produced nuclear weapons.”  The nation is believed to be the only Middle Eastern nuclear power but has never publicly acknowledged that status (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2006). India, according to the document, had performed “peaceful” nuclear weapons testing and was expected to “proceed to fabricate weapons covertly.” “An Indian decision to proceed with an overt weapons program on any scale will be one factor inclining some other countries to follow suit,” the report said.  “The strongest impulses will probably be felt by Pakistan and Iran.” India and Pakistan have both become nuclear weapons states (see GSN, Jan. 2), while Iran denies that its nuclear program contains a military component.  A recent U.S. National Intelligence Estimate reported that Iran’s military nuclear program ended in 2004. The 1974 report also correctly identified Taiwan’s interest in the nuclear weapons “option,” the Post reported.  Taiwan halted its effort in 1986. The U.S. intelligence community was less perceptive regarding South Africa, saying it was “of more concern in the proliferation context as a potential supplier of nuclear materials and technology than as a potential nuclear weapons power.”  The apartheid government by that time had already initiated a weapons program that would produce six weapons before being abandoned years later (see GSN, May 25, 2004). U.S. intelligence agencies were split on the question of a Japanese nuclear weapons program. The CIA and agencies at the State Department, Defense Department and Army said that Tokyo “would not embark on a program of nuclear weapons development in the absence of a major adverse shift in great power relationships which presented Japan with a clear cut to its security.” However, top intelligence officials at the Air Force and Navy argued that there was “a strong chance that Japan’s leaders will conclude that they must have nuclear weapons if they are to achieve their national objectives in the developing Asian power balance.”  They expected a decision could come “in the early 1980s.” Japan has made no moves toward nuclear weapons development, though concerns remain that it might do so in the face of the threat from North Korea. The 1974 document also noted that “terrorists might attempt theft of either weapons or fissionable materials” that could be “useful for terror or blackmail purposes even if they had no intention of going on to fabricate weapons” (see GSN, Jan. 7; Walter Pincus, Washington Post, Jan. 14). Back to top       India, IAEA to Resume Nuclear Talks This Week India and the International Atomic Energy Agency plan to renew talks this week to establish an agreement enabling the agency to monitor the nation’s civilian nuclear activities, the Press Trust of India reported (see GSN, Jan. 10). Such an agreement is a prerequisite for advancing the pending U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal which has been stalled by domestic political opposition in New Delhi.  Still, Indian leaders have sough to overcome other hurdles while they work out the political dispute. For the deal to take effect, India must sign the safeguards agreement with the agency, obtain an exemption from international trade rules that bar sales of key nuclear technology to India and receive the approval of the U.S. Congress. IAEA sources said the inspections agreement was nearing completion. This week’s meetings in Vienna would be “possibly the final round,” said one source.  “The draft has to be discussed by the [ruling] UPA-Left committee in India and should be ready to be placed before the Board of Governors of [the] IAEA in March.” Modifications to the international trade guidelines are also on track, PTI reported.  Members of the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group met last week in Vienna, where they found weakening resistance among opponents to the deal, according to PTI (Press Trust of India/The Hindu, Jan. 13). Back to top       U.K. Drops Investigation Into Khan Network Supplier British officials have ended an investigation without any filing charges against exporter Peter Griffin, who had been suspected of playing a knowing and active role in an international nuclear smuggling network once led by former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, the London Sunday Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 13, 2004). Griffin told the Times that his lawyers learned two weeks ago that the case had been dropped. “There’s no bloody evidence, that’s why. They have sent people to South Africa, to America, to Dubai, all over the world. It’s gone before the [Revenue and Customs] director of prosecutions who said, ‘We don’t have a chance of winning this,’” Griffin said. The four-year investigation examined Griffin’s role in supplying the network with key equipment that was ultimately discovered in Libyan nuclear facilities. Griffin has asserted that he was an unwitting accomplice who was misled about how the machine tools he exported would be used and where they were headed. “I never supplied anything that would have said to me that this was nuclear,” he said.  “I agree, I supplied machine tools.  Now you can make anything on a machine tool.” One of the network’s key planners “told me that Libya were going to make a factory in Dubai to make spare parts for their oil industry. … I had no problem because I’m not breaking any embargoes because it’s not going to Libya.  So I supplied these machine tools,” Griffin added (London Sunday Times, Jan. 13). Back to top

MIT Works on Tiny Chemical Agent Sensor A tiny sensor being developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology could be used for rapid detection of chemical weapons agents, the university said last week (see GSN, May 9, 2007). The gas chromatography and mass spectrometry device is now the size of a computer mouse and could ultimately be shrunk to matchbox size, researchers said. “Everything we’re doing has been done on a macro scale.  We are just scaling it down,” said electrical engineering and computer science professor Akintunde Ibitayo Akinwande in a press release. The sensors could be used for detection of various dangerous gases, including industrial chemicals and warfare materials.  A prototype device has been found to produce results in roughly four seconds. Small devices could be more easily distributed outdoors or within a building and would have greater sensitivity to minimal gas amounts, Akinwande said.  They could also operate on limited amounts of power. Work on the device involves researchers from MIT, the University of Cambridge, the University of Texas at Dallas, Clean Earth Technology and Raytheon.  It is expected to be completed in the next two years (Massachusetts Institute of Technology release, Jan. 10). Back to top

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