Former Iraq Survey Group leader David Kay, shown in 2006, has criticized a recent U.S. intelligence assessment of Iran’s nuclear ambitions (Joshua Roberts/Getty Images). Experts Assail Intel Assessment of Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, an assessment that appeared to contradict months of aggressive Bush administration rhetoric on Tehran’s nuclear program, was a “sloppy” document that could have been drafted by a less-than-stellar graduate student, nonproliferation experts said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 29). The report seemingly fails to make the link between the role that preparation of a civilian nuclear program could play in supporting any military nuclear efforts, they said...Full Story

Lugar Questions U.S. Arms Control Policies U.S. and international efforts to combat WMD proliferation have experienced major setbacks over the past several years, Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 11)...Full Story

Iran Sanctions Could be Delayed, South Africa Says A South African official suggested his government might be looking for a month’s delay in the U.N. Security Council decision on new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, Reuters reported (see GSN, Jan. 30)...Full Story

	Thursday, January 31, 2008

Lugar Questions U.S. Arms Control Policies U.S. and international efforts to combat WMD proliferation have experienced major setbacks over the past several years, Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 11). “The United States lacks even minimal confidence about many foreign weapons programs,” Lugar said in an address at a WMD preparedness conference in Chantilly, Va., according to a statement released by his office. “In most cases, there is little or no information regarding the number of weapons or amounts of materials a country may have produced, the storage procedures they employ to safeguard their weapons or plans regarding further production or destruction programs,” he said.  “We must pay much more attention to making certain that all weapons and materials of mass destruction are identified, continuously guarded and systematically destroyed.” “As contradictions in American policy have emerged, confidence in U.S. leadership on nonproliferation and arms control has eroded and U.S. commitment is being questioned in foreign capitals,” he said. The senator addressed several areas that he said have raised concerns among foreign partners. Lugar noted that budgetary constraints could cause a slowdown in the destruction of U.S. munitions required under the Chemical Weapons Convention (see GSN, Jan. 15).  He also said the U.S. response to concerns about nuclear weapons proliferation in Iran and North Korea has been subject to questions (see GSN, Jan. 24). Lugar also referred to delays in negotiating a fissile material cutoff treaty (see GSN, Jan. 24, 2007) — a multilateral pact that would ban nuclear enrichment and reprocessing outside of international safeguards regimes and prohibit nuclear material processing for military use.  Another area of concern is the Bush administration’s failure to push to reform the safeguards and verification regimes of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which he described as “decrepit” (see GSN, April 4, 2005). The senator further noted that the United States has not yet agreed with Russia to extend the verification and compliance measures of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty beyond its 2009 expiration (see GSN, Dec. 12, 2007). “The United States and Russia are the two most critical players in nonproliferation and arms control.  Despite the rhetoric of recent months, the two countries must accept the fact that we need each other,” Lugar said.  “We must not lose patience or miss the possibilities of cooperative threat reduction.” The United States has not ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and the Bush administration has made funding cuts to the pact’s monitoring system that might seem to contradict White House policies, Lugar said (see GSN, Sept. 18, 2007). The Bush administration has not yet ratified the IAEA Additional Protocol more than a year after U.S. lawmakers approved the measure, Lugar said (see GSN, Oct. 24, 2007).  The protocol permits the U.N. nuclear watchdog to conduct short-notice inspections of nuclear sites in signatory nations (Senator Richard Lugar release, Jan. 30). Back to top

Experts Assail Intel Assessment of Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions By Jon Fox Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, an assessment that appeared to contradict months of aggressive Bush administration rhetoric on Tehran’s nuclear program, was a “sloppy” document that could have been drafted by a less-than-stellar graduate student, nonproliferation experts said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 29). The report seemingly fails to make the link between the role that preparation of a civilian nuclear program could play in supporting any military nuclear efforts, they said. The document released to the public, including three pages of key judgments, was a fraction of the entire classified document report by the U.S. intelligence community. Its crucial finding, that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, was reported as a bombshell revelation that seemed to undermine administration claims about the threat posed by Iranian nuclear ambitions (see GSN, Dec. 4, 2007). For experts, though, the way the anonymous authors of the slim unclassified document defined “nuclear weapons program,” tucked away in a footnote at the bottom of the first page, poses problems. “For purposes of this estimate, by ‘nuclear weapons program’ we mean Iran’s nuclear weapons design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work,” the report states.  “We do not mean Iran’s declared civil work related to uranium conversion and enrichment.” Civil and military efforts cannot be so discretely divorced, according to analysts speaking at a U.S. Institute of Peace panel discussion here.  Under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, to which Iran belongs, nations are permitted to pursue and develop civilian nuclear technology.  That technology, however, could provide an avenue to a weapons program.  Once a capacity for uranium enrichment is achieved, the same equipment be used to produce nuclear weapon materials. Tehran has rebuffed repeated international demands that it halt its enrichment activities, which today consist of about 3,000 working enrichment centrifuges.  Iran’s intransigence has resulted in two rounds of U.N. Security Council sanctions; member states are now considering a third sanctions resolution (see related GSN story, today). “There are levels of paradox about this document,” said Avner Cohen, a senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace, adding that it was written “in a sloppy and misleading way.” The definition of what exactly constitutes a “nuclear weapons program” is at best a failure to grasp the phenomenon of nuclear proliferation and at worst deliberately biased, Cohen said.  “They insist on the most narrow definition of a nuclear weapons program.” David Kay, who once led U.S. efforts to uncover WMD activities in Iraq, was just as critical. “It looks like it was written by a really inadequately trained graduate student,” said Kay, now a senior research fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.  The document seems to exhibit a failure to understand that civil and military nuclear programs are “one in the same in terms of the science,” he said. The assessment “may represent what is in the classified version,” but “it really does look like something that was almost an afterthought.” “I suspect that if this represents an accurate view of what’s in the classified version, it will not be many years [before] we judge this NIE to be as wrong as the Iraqi NIE,” Kay said. The assessment might be, in part, a response to mistakes made in U.S. assessments of Iraqi unconventional weapons programs.  “I think in fact the people writing this were in large measure trying to correct a past failure and because it was public that plays into a policy debate in a way I find unseemly and not very useful,” Kay said. Paul Pillar, a 28-year CIA veteran and former intelligence officer for the Middle East and South Asia, argued the media overstated the degree to which the report represents a change in intelligence community opinions. “It’s important to remember, to point out, just what hasn’t changed in the judgment of the U.S. intelligence community,” he said. Iran is continuing uranium enrichment; the time frame within which intelligence officials believe Tehran could produce a weapon is unchanged; and analysts continue to assess that Iranian officials have not been truthful regarding their intentions in pursuing nuclear technology, Pillar said.  Lastly, the document notes that whether Tehran decides to exercise its nuclear weapon option depends on Iranian decisions yet to be taken. “All of that is unchanged,” he said. “It’s what the intelligence community was saying a couple of years ago.” The latest assessment adds information about clandestine weapons design work, but in the last U.S. intelligence assessment on Iran officials advanced no such judgment about clandestine weapons activity, Pillar said. “One will search in vain for the judgment that was supposedly reversed,” he said.  “It just wasn’t there.” He criticized the way in which “the whole thing is structured to emphasize what has changed and not what has continued.” “I think it’s hard for anyone in this field to read the summary and feel that its an artfully done piece of work,” said George Perkovich, director of the nonproliferation program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Back to top       Iran Sanctions Could be Delayed, South Africa Says A South African official suggested his government might be looking for a month’s delay in the U.N. Security Council decision on new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, Reuters reported (see GSN, Jan. 30). Representatives from the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany plan to discuss the proposed sanctions resolution today with officials from South Africa, a nonpermanent council member. “One-month (delay) cannot cause a nuclear disaster, but I don't know what the P5+1 have in their minds,” said George Nene, the South African Foreign Ministry’s multilateral affairs chief (Reuters I, Jan. 31). For its part, Iran has vowed to ignore any Security Council action and to press on with its nuclear ambitions, which officials have steadfastly affirmed are peaceful.  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said yesterday that a nearly completed nuclear power plant at Bushehr could produce electricity by early 2009, and he said the nation would continue its uranium enrichment program. “If you (the West) imagine that the Iranian nation will back down you are making a mistake,” he said. “On the nuclear path we are moving towards the peak,” he said without giving details.  “Next year at this time … nuclear electricity should flow in Iran’s electricity network.” “Test operations will start by Oct. 22 and a little while after that Bushehr will become operational,” said Ahmad Fayazbakhsh, Iran’s nuclear energy production chief (Hosseinian/Hafezi, Reuters II, Jan. 31). The British ambassador to the United Nations said yesterday that two previous Security Council sanctions resolutions against Iran have taken political and economic tolls on the Middle Eastern nation. “The economic effect has been to contribute to a further downturn in Iran’s trade, particularly with Europe, and the readiness of international companies to invest,” John Sawers said. “It’s made companies, banks for example, consider their exposure and whether it's worth the reputational risk of being involved with Iran,” Sawers said, adding that the six powers’ unity in imposing the sanctions has “contributed to a pretty fierce debate within Iran about what price they should be willing to pay for pursuing their nuclear ambitions.” Iran’s unemployment rate is estimated to fall around 10 percent and inflation has risen to 19 percent, largely affecting working-class Iranians that Ahmadinejad had courted during his 2005 presidential bid (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters III, Jan. 30). Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana held out an offer of nuclear assistance to Iran if the government demonstrates that its nuclear intentions are strictly peaceful, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported. “None of us have a problem with an Iranian civil program, indeed we are offering to help.  But none of us will do so unless we are certain that Iran’s intentions are exclusively peaceful,” Solana told European Parliament members. Solana said he remains skeptical of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, noting that Tehran continues to enrich uranium although Russia has already shipped nuclear fuel to run its Bushehr reactor. “When I ask representatives of the Iranian government what they plan to do with the enriched uranium they are producing, I never get an answer,” he said.  “Even the suspicion that Iran is pursing a nuclear weapon can destabilize the Middle East. Our objective is to remove those suspicions” (Deutsche Presse-Agentur/Khaleej Times, Jan. 30). Solana called for establishing an international nuclear fuel repository that would eliminate the need for Iran and other nations to enrich uranium to produce nuclear power plant fuel, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Jan. 9). “I strongly support myself the idea of the creation of an international fuel supply assurance that (would) have the form of a fuel bank,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Jan. 30). Back to top       Kim Pledges Commitment to Korean Denuclearization North Korean leader Kim Jong Il said yesterday that his regime has no intention of turning back on its agreement to dismantle its nuclear programs, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 30). Kim made his pledge during a meeting with Wang Jiarui, liaison office chief for the Chinese Communist Party, according to the Xinhua News Agency.  It comes as the six-party process has faltered over Pyongyang’s seeming unwillingness to provide a full declaration of its nuclear activities. “The present difficulties are temporary and can be conquered,” Kim said.  “There are no changes in the North’s stance to continue pushing forward the six-party talks persistently and implementing all the agreements.” The process has slowed amid North Korean charges that the other six-party nations — China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and, in particular, the United States — have failed to follow through on their promises of rewards for denuclearization.  Pyongyang stands to receive energy, diplomatic and security benefits for fulfilling the terms of the 2007 nuclear deal. “As long as all the parties fulfill promises according to the ‘action-for-action’ principle, the talks will conquer obstacles and continually forge ahead,” Kim said (Associated Press/Washington Post, Jan. 31). Sung Kim, the U.S. State Department’s top Korea expert, arrived today in Pyongyang to press North Korea for the nuclear declaration, Xinhua reported.  His visit is expected to last through Saturday (Xinhua News Agency/China Daily, Jan. 31). A main sticking point has been that a November nuclear list provided by North Korea did not address Washington’s satisfaction suspicions that the regime has operated a uranium enrichment program. Bush administration officials suspect that Pyongyang received uranium enrichment centrifuges from the nuclear black market network once operated by top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.  North Korean officials have denied operating any uranium program alongside its known plutonium weapons efforts. “Why don’t you invite A.Q. Khan to join the negotiations?” Kim Myong Gil, North Korean envoy to the United Nations, told Asia expert Selig Harrison recently.  “Where is the invoice?  Give us the evidence.” In a Washington Post commentary, Harrison said that obtaining access to Khan could help resolve U.S. suspicions on the uranium issue.  Pakistan to date has not allowed outside investigators to meet with the scientist. “The United States should put the Khan issue at the top of its agenda in Islamabad.  At the very least, the [International Atomic Energy Agency] should be able to question him about what he gave not only to North Korea, but also to Iran and Syria,” Harrison wrote (Selig Harrison, Washington Post, Jan. 31). Back to top       Long-Awaited Nuclear Weapon Research Tool Ready for U.S. Scientists, Laboratory Announces U.S. scientists are ready to begin full operation of a long-delayed X-ray tool designed to simulate the exploding cores of nuclear weapons, the Los Alamos National Laboratory announced Tuesday (see GSN, April 2, 2007). The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test facility features two enormous electron beam generators that create X-rays to produce images of extremely fast-moving materials.  One beam generator has been working, but the second was postponed for years and could now be tested at full power as soon as this week, according to a laboratory release.  Scientists expect to conduct the first full test involving both beams in early summer. “The achievement of this capability at DARHT is a major accomplishment in stockpile stewardship,” said Glenn Mara, the New Mexico laboratory’s principal associate director for nuclear weapons programs, in a press release.  “Such tools assure the continued safety, security, and reliability of the nation's nuclear deterrent without the need to return to nuclear testing” (Los Alamos National Laboratory release, Jan. 29). The Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration has pursued the DAHRT facility for years, but has faced numerous technical obstacles.  If the facility achieves full operations this year, it would be two decades after the project’s inception, according to a 2004 report by nuclear weapons expert Christopher Paine of the Natural Resources Defense Council. “It also will be considerably less capable than planned, thereby conveniently bolstering the argument that NNSA needs an even more powerful and capable radiographic facility,” the report says.  “Weapons lab managers have perfected the art of turning costly technical failures into categorical improvements for the next big machine” (Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire, Jan. 31). Meanwhile, laboratory managers have disclosed that an equipment failure allowed a small release of radiation last week in a chemistry laboratory, the Albuquerque Journal reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 25, 2007). As technicians worked with a sample of germanium 68 — a radioactive isotope used for medical imaging — the safety cell holding the material lost power to its negative pressure system.  Such systems are designed to prevent any gaseous leaks from the cell. Some of the germanium did leak and triggered radiation alarms at the site, initiating an evacuation, the Journal reported.  Parts of the building remain closed, but could reopen this week said laboratory spokesman Kevin Roark.  Tests for radiation exposure among some workers came up negative. “All the safety systems worked exactly as designed,” Roark said (Raam Wong, Albuquerque Journal, Jan. 30). Back to top       Kwajalein Hosts B-2 Bomber Training Mission U.S. nuclear-capable bombers conducted training exercises last week at a U.S. Army facility on the Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific, marking the first time the island has been used for bomber drills, the U.S. Air Force announced Tuesday (see GSN, Sept. 29, 2004). Flying from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam (see GSN, Nov. 7, 2002), the B-2 Spirit stealth bombers from the 393rd Expeditionary Squadron dropped six unarmed conventional bombs on the Kwajalein range during a 22-hour exercise. “The mission showcases the B-2’s abilities to strike anywhere, anytime with precision, payload and stealth,” Maj. Rob Makros, an officer deployed with the bomber unit, said in a press release. Kwajalein has historically been used to aid U.S. strategic missile testing (see GSN, June 15, 2006) and missile defense testing (see GSN, Feb. 14, 2005). “From the range perspective, this mission is showing that [the facility] is flexible enough to validate (the) nation’s strategic weapons systems other than (the) intercontinental ballistic missile,” said Kwajalein spokeswoman Bert Jones (U.S. Air Force release, Jan. 29). Back to top

NATO Joins Biological Threat Monitoring Network NATO has joined a worldwide system that monitors the international media for indications of a disease outbreak or act of biological terrorism, United Press International reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 26, 2007). The military alliance is working with the Global Public Health Intelligence Network on a trial basis, said Richard Lemay, a senior surveillance officer for the Canadian-run health system.  He described the network as an “early warning system using media to detect public health events.” Analysts keep tabs on Internet and television news sources around the clock, aggregating and translating information on potential biological outbreaks from Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Persian, Russian and Spanish.  The network plans to adopt new languages as it grows, its Web site says. NATO is “piloting the GPHIN system to see whether it can fulfill some of their public health surveillance needs,” Lemay said.  “If we have a request (to join), we will assess … whether it fits the GPHIN mandate.” If NATO joins the network permanently, it would become the first military organization among GPHIN subscribers that include various European and North American public health agencies, the World Health Organization and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. Lemay said the system has “a broad scope,” monitoring human and animal disease outbreaks, food and water contamination, bioterrorism, natural disasters and accidental chemical, biological and radiological material releases (Shaun Waterman, United Press International, Jan. 30). Back to top

U.S., Poland Resume Missile Defense Talks Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski is scheduled to meet this week with high-level U.S. officials to press his nation’s demands for compensation for hosting part of the Bush administration’s planned European missile shield, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 23). The new Polish government under Prime Minister Donald Tusk is driving a harder bargain than its predecessor on becoming home to 10 U.S. missile interceptors, according to AP.  Warsaw officials have said the missile defense system must not threaten the nation’s security and have requested short- and medium-range air defenses as part of the deal.  Washington has appeared reluctant to provide such technology, AP reported. Sikorski is scheduled to meet in Washington with Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates (Desmond Butler, Associated Press I/China Post, Jan. 31). Washington also wants to place a missile defense radar in the Czech Republic.  The latest round of negotiations between U.S. and Czech officials ended yesterday in Prague, AP reported. During the three-day session, negotiators focused on the legal status of U.S. personnel who would be deployed at the base. Further talks are scheduled to resume Feb. 7.  Experts from the two nations are expected beforehand to consider taxes and penal legislation, according to the Czech Defense Ministry.  An agreement could be reached by midyear, Czech officials have said (Associated Press II/PR-inside, Jan. 30). A Russian general said yesterday that the U.S. plan might lead to changes to his nation’s military presence in the enclave of Kaliningrad, AP reported. The military’s General Staff is looking at strategies for making sure that troops remain “capable of guaranteeing the protection of Russian interests,” said Gen. Vladimir Shamanov.  He did not elaborate on the potential changes at the Baltic enclave, Russian Federation territory that is surrounded by Poland and Lithuania. Russia has repeatedly characterized the U.S. plan as a threat to its security.  President Vladimir Putin has said his government might respond by placing missiles in the Kaliningrad enclave (Associated Press III/Moscow Times, Jan. 31). Back to top       U.S. Could Add Aegis Defenses to Warships The U.S. Navy would outfit its entire cruiser and destroyer fleets with Aegis ballistic missile defense technology under a proposal announced earlier this month by the service’s surface warfare director, Inside Missile Defense reported (see GSN, Nov. 29, 2007). Rear Adm. Victor Guillory praised Aegis defenses as “the next big thing” in naval warfare — analogous to the deployment of nuclear powered submarines and aircraft carriers in the 1950s — and said the Navy plans to equip 15 destroyers and three cruisers with the technology “by the end of next year.”  That would not be the end of the effort, he said. “The DDG modernization program is funded to add BMD capability to the remaining 47 destroyers, and we will be examining options (to add BMD to the) remaining cruisers in POM-10 (program objective memorandum),” he said at a Jan. 15 naval symposium. The upgrades would be one component of a larger modernization effort, Guillory said. “My surface warfare vision includes modernizing the current fleet of Aegis cruisers and destroyers — the bulk of battleships — for the next 25 years,” he said (Dan Taylor, Inside Missile Defense, Jan. 30). Back to top

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