International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei plans this week to press Iran to offer more data on its nuclear program (Tengku Bahar/Getty Images). Iran Begins New Nuclear Disclosures Iran has opened a new round of disclosures on past nuclear activities that U.S. officials say were aimed at nuclear weapons development, diplomats told the Associated Press yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 7). International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei plans to travel to Iran at the end of this week.  He makes the trip “with a view of resolving all remaining outstanding issues and enabling the agency to provide assurance about Iran’s past and present activities,” said spokeswoman Melissa Fleming. Fleming gave no further details on plans for the visit, but a diplomat said ElBaradei planned to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei...Full Story

Poland not Rushing Missile Defense Decision, PM Says Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk indicated yesterday that he was in no hurry to decide whether his country would become home to 10 U.S. missile interceptors, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 7)...Full Story

U.S. Pushes for Full North Korean Nuclear List The United States still wants to see a full accounting of North Korea’s nuclear programs, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said today (see GSN, Jan. 7)...Full Story

	Tuesday, January 8, 2008

WMD Must Be Kept From Terrorists, Pope Says The international community must cooperate to prevent terrorists from acquiring weapons of mass destruction and resolve tensions with Iran over its nuclear activities, Pope Benedict XVI told Vatican diplomats yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 14, 2005). “I wish to urge the international community to make a global commitment on security,” Benedict said in his annual speech detailing the Vatican’s positions on foreign policy issues.  “A joint effort on the part of states to implement all the obligations undertaken and to prevent terrorists from gaining access to weapons of mass destruction would undoubtedly strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime and make it more effective.” The pope also supported ongoing diplomacy to address international tensions with Iran over its disputed nuclear program, the Associated Press reported.  Iran has rejected U.N. Security Council demands that it halt uranium enrichment activities, maintaining that its program is intended solely for civilian energy production. “I should also like to express my support for continued and uninterrupted pursuit of the path of diplomacy in order to resolve the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, by negotiating in good faith, adopting measures designed to increase transparency and mutual trust,” Benedict said (Ariel David, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Jan. 7). Back to top

Iran Begins New Nuclear Disclosures Iran has opened a new round of disclosures on past nuclear activities that U.S. officials say were aimed at nuclear weapons development, diplomats told the Associated Press yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 7). International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei plans to travel to Iran at the end of this week.  He makes the trip “with a view of resolving all remaining outstanding issues and enabling the agency to provide assurance about Iran’s past and present activities,” said spokeswoman Melissa Fleming. Fleming gave no further details on plans for the visit, but a diplomat said ElBaradei planned to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. ElBaradei has long pushed for the full transparency of Iran’s nuclear program.  Last year, Iran agreed to a “work plan” requiring it to answer all outstanding U.N. questions about its nuclear program on a step-by-step basis.  The remaining U.N. concerns include questions that Iran has avoided since 2003, when 20 years of the country’s secret nuclear work were revealed. As part of the disclosure agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency has held talks with Iran on the installation and advancement of its uranium-enriching centrifuge technology as well as the origins of trace amounts of highly enriched uranium discovered at a Tehran university facility with links to the Iranian military. IAEA officials continue to seek information on Iran’s “Green Salt” project, which the United States contends is a plan connecting various aspects of nuclear weapons production such as uranium enrichment, explosives testing and missile re-entry. Agency inspectors have also sought out information on the history of activities at Iran’s Lavizan-Shian research center, which U.S. officials contend was a storage center for nuclear weapons development equipment acquired by the Iranian military.  Iran shuttered and razed the facility before allowing agency officials access to the site. Iran has denied operating a military nuclear program.  However, diplomats said yesterday that Iranian nuclear officials have recently entered into significant talks with IAEA experts on “weaponization” issues as part of the ongoing agency investigation into Iran’s nuclear program. A recently released U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran concluded that Iran abandoned a covert nuclear weapons development program in 2003.  That could slow the momentum of a U.S.-led campaign to impose a third round of U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran for its refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment program. ElBaradei said he hoped the agency’s probe would be finished by December, but an IAEA-accredited diplomat said Iranian officials hoped to complete the inquiry by March. While the United States and other Western powers might not approve of such delays in the move toward new Security Council sanctions they could be forced to give Iran time to offer new disclosures on its nuclear program’s history, AP reported (George Jahn, Associated Press/Washington Post, Jan. 7). According to some Western diplomats accredited to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Iran has slowed its cooperation with IAEA officials since the new U.S. intelligence assessment was released, Reuters reported. One purpose of ElBaradei’s visit to Iran this week could be to inform the country’s leaders that the U.S. report does not free it of its transparency commitments, some diplomats suggested. “Our impression is that Iran thinks it is in a very strong position due to the NIE,” said one European diplomat. “It may mean that the Iranians are not being as forthcoming for the IAEA investigation, doing the contrary of accelerating cooperation (and widening access for inspectors) as ElBaradei has called for,” the official told Reuters. “He may want to tell Iran, ‘This is your last chance, don’t make me look like an idiot,’ to light a fire under their feet,” a second Western diplomat said.  “But it doesn’t look as if he'll be able to proclaim the completion of (the transparency plan)” (Mark Heinrich, Reuters/Washington Post, Jan. 7). In an interview with the Arabic publication al-Hayat, ElBaradei said Iran’s uranium enrichment program was not a major source of concern for U.N. nuclear watchdog officials. “The IAEA didn't see any active plan to manufacture nuclear weapons in Iran … we saw no evidence of an underground uranium enrichment facility, nor do we have any intelligence suggesting such activity. “Iran still has some questions to answer," he added, “but I can't say it poses a clear and immediate danger … all this talk about World War III just aggravates me” (Roee Nahmias, Ynetnews, Jan. 7). Back to top       U.S. Pushes for Full North Korean Nuclear List The United States still wants to see a full accounting of North Korea’s nuclear programs, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said today (see GSN, Jan. 7). Pyongyang “is not quite ready to be giving us a complete listing of all their programs, all their facilities and all their nuclear materials.  So that is the key issue,” Hill, top U.S. envoy to the six-party talks, said in Seoul. Hill is traveling this week to Japan, South Korea, China and Russia, the other nations involved in the negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear program.  He plans to discuss scheduling the next round of talks with officials in Beijing, Agence France-Presse reported. Pyongyang agreed in October to fully declare its nuclear programs by the end of 2007.  The Stalinist state said last week it provided a list to Washington in November, but U.S. officials say they have yet to receive a sufficient accounting. “I’m not too concerned about being a little late.  The main concern is when they do give a declaration, we want it to be complete,” Hill said. “They have not wanted to list programs we know about,” he added without elaborating. The Bush administration has demanded that North Korea address its suspected uranium enrichment efforts in the declaration.  Pyongyang has never publicly acknowledged operating such a program and said it provided an explanation of the matter in November. North Korea was also due to complete disablement of three key nuclear facilities by Dec. 31.  That did not occur and Pyongyang has slowed work, accusing the other nations of failing to follow through on their promises of assistance in return for denuclearization. The participating countries have provided North Korea with roughly 150,000 tons of heavy fuel oil and 5,000 tons of steel for renovations of power plants. “The disablement has gone well.  I know they (North Koreans) talk about slowing down, but frankly a lot of actions have been completed,” Hill said (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Jan. 8). China suggested today that it takes the U.S. stand that North Korea has yet to provide the full nuclear declaration, Kyodo News reported. Pyongyang “has agreed to provide a complete and correct declaration,” said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu.  “We hope that all parties will carry out the agreed items in an overall and balanced manner” (Kyodo News, Jan. 8). Back to top       Chinese Missile Submarines Remained Quiet in 2007 Twenty-five years after launching its first nuclear missile submarine, China has never deployed one on deterrent patrol, a U.S. nuclear weapons expert reported yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 1, 2006). China has about 55 general-purpose submarines and only three designed to launch nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, according to a blog report by Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists (see GSN, March 2, 2007). Last year, China conducted a total of six submarine patrols with its larger fleet, compared to the U.S. Navy deploying more than 100 patrols, Kristensen said. The lack of patrols means that Chinese crews are receiving little real-world training, he said. “The operational experience from the 55 patrols conducted by the entire submarine force between 1981 and the end of 2007 suggests that China's submarine force — at least for now — remains a coastal defense force,” Kristensen said (Federation of American Scientists release, Jan. 7). Back to top       India, U.S. Hold Secret Nuclear Talks, Report Says U.S. and Indian diplomats met secretly last year to discuss a pending nuclear trade agreement while India’s leadership was promising to keep the deal’s domestic critics fully informed of any negotiations, the Calcutta Telegraph reported today (see GSN, Jan. 7). Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon met in Madrid with U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns in late November on the sidelines of an annual meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, according to the Telegraph. The two officials discussed the U.S. unwillingness to modify the bilateral “123 agreement” that specifies the terms of the trade deal which would enable India to purchase U.S. nuclear technology and materials.  Indian critics have expressed worries that the agreement text places too many restrictions on their nation’s nuclear policy. Some of those critics have threatened to undermine Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government, and he in turn promised to pursue the deal slowly and openly while discussing the critics’ concerns, the Telegraph reported (K.P. Nayar, Calcutta Telegraph, Jan. 8). Back to top       NNSA Removes More Plutonium From Livermore The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration said yesterday that it had shipped more weapon-grade plutonium from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California to the Savannah River Site in South Carolina (see GSN, Sept. 6, 2007). The agency, a semiautonomous arm of the Energy Department, conducted the shipment as part of its project to consolidate plutonium now contained at sites around the nation.  It first relocated material from Lawrence Livermore late last year and plans to finish removal by 2012, two years earlier than originally planned. “There is too much nuclear weapons material stored at too many different sites around the country,” NNSA chief Thomas D’Agostino said in a press release.  “Our consolidation efforts will reduce security costs and are an integral part of transforming the U.S. nuclear weapons complex to one that is smaller, safer, more secure and more efficient.” The nuclear complex transformation plan calls for consolidating nuclear materials at five sites by 2012 (see GSN, Dec. 19, 2007).  The square footage of the facilities is set to be “significantly reduced” by 2017, according to the press release. The National Nuclear Security Administration plans to convert excess plutonium stored at Savannah River into mixed-oxide fuel for nuclear power plants.  Construction of the conversion facility is one-fourth completed (U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration release, Jan. 7). Back to top       IAEA Hopes to Visit Syrian Site of Israeli Attack The International Atomic Energy Agency hopes to send personnel to the site of a Syrian building destroyed in an Israeli air raid last September, Haaretz reported yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 14, 2007). The attack on the building, which international media reports have suggested was a secret nuclear reactor site, “set a bad precedent,” IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei told the Arabic newspaper al-Hayat. He added that the agency has no indications of Syrian nuclear ambitions (Yoav Stern, Haaretz, Jan. 7). ElBaradei also warned of an increasing possibility that terrorists would attack a facility in hopes of dispersing radioactive material, Ynetnews reported. “Terror groups might try to attack a facility housing radioactive materials in a populated area or even in one (of the world’s) capitals, which could lead to a wide area being infected with radiation and thousands of deaths,” ElBaradei told al-Hayat. “We know the terror organizations would like to carry out such an attack and in fact they are more likely to succeed in that than they are in getting their hands [on] nuclear weapons,” he said (Roee Nahmias, Ynetnews, Jan. 7). Back to top

India to Test Midrange Agni Missile in 2009 India plans to test a modified, intermediate-range version of its nuclear-capable Agni 3 ballistic missile by early 2009, the Times of India reported today (see GSN, Dec. 12, 2007). The “Agni 3 plus” missile is expected to have a range of 3,100 miles, according to V.K. Saraswat, head of the missile program at India’s Defense Research and Development Organization.  The weapon’s planned range falls 400 miles short of the distance required for a missile to be considered an ICBM. The missile is now in the design stage.  “We are looking for trial in early 2009,” Saraswat said. Indian technicians are attempting into miniaturize some components on the Agni 3 missile to make room for a third stage that could increase its range to 3,100 miles, enabling it to carry a 1.5-ton payload to a target deep inside China. Although the Agni 3’s first test in July 2006 was a failure, scientists hope to add the missile to India’s arsenal by the end of the decade after repeated testing. The new planned test comes as India pursues the “Sagarika” project, which aims to place nuclear-armed cruise missiles on submarines (see GSN, Dec. 4, 2007).  The addition of a submarine-launched cruise missile to India’s stockpile would complete a “triad” of strategic options for India to carry out a retaliatory nuclear strike, a goal New Delhi has long pursued. Along with land-based missiles, India already possesses fighter jets capable of delivering nuclear weapons (Times of India, Jan. 8). Back to top

Poland not Rushing Missile Defense Decision, PM Says Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk indicated yesterday that he was in no hurry to decide whether his country would become home to 10 U.S. missile interceptors, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 7). Poland “definitely shouldn’t hurry on the missile defense issue. … Remember, the shield is supposed to defend America, not Poland,” he told the Polish edition of Newsweek. The Bush administration says it wants to place missile interceptors in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic to counter potential missile threats, particularly those emanating from Iran.  Washington intends to continue negotiations “to address all of the government of Poland’s concerns,” said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. “This is in both of our interests,” he said.  “It’s in the interests of Poland.  It’s in the interest of the United States.  It’s in the interests of other European countries. Tusk and other members of his government have repeatedly expressed ambivalence about the U.S. plan since his October election victory.  Officials have said Poland’s security must be increased by participation in the missile shield and that all costs and dangers must be considered. With the Bush administration leaving office in one year, leaders in Warsaw and Prague might be reluctant to sign off on a plan that would increase tensions with Russia, AP said. “The new Polish administration believes there’s no point in pushing ahead with this now, there’s only things to lose,” said Robin Shepherd, a trans-Atlantic relations specialist at the Chatham House in the United Kingdom.  “Far better to wait and see what happens when there’s a new American president.” Poland’s hardening stance on missile defense “does not affect” the Czech Republic, which hopes to finish negotiations on the radar base this spring, said Czech Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zuzana Opletalova.  However, experts said Prague’s position is not likely to remain static if Warsaw withdraws. “The two projects in Poland and the Czech Republic are parts of the same system,” said Jiri Pehe, director of the Prague program at New York University. “I think it’s reasonable to expect that the Czechs also will reassess their options,” Shepherd said.  “I suspect that the Bush administration is going to find it very hard to get an agreement from the Poles or the Czechs” (Ryan Lucas, Associated Press/Washington Post, Jan. 7). Back to top       Indian Missile Defenses to Handle Long-Range Threats Indian missile defenses scheduled for deployment by 2010 would be capable of intercepting intermediate-range ballistic missiles and ICBMs, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Dec. 14, 2007). India is now developing the system indigenously and expects to begin testing it next year, said V.K. Saraswat, head of the missile program at the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization. “We are developing a robust antimissile defense system that will have high-speed interceptions for engaging ballistic missiles in the 5,000-kilometer (3,000-mile) class and above,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Google News, Jan. 8).   Back to top

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