Zalmay Khalilzad, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said Iran has yet to acknowledge operating a nuclear weapons program in the past (Joel Saget/Getty Images). Advanced Centrifuges Operating, Iranian Official Confirms Iran confirmed yesterday that it has begun using a next-generation centrifuge model capable of enriching uranium more than twice as fast as its predecessor, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 22). Diplomats close to the International Atomic Energy Agency investigation of Iran’s nuclear activities said earlier this month that Tehran was enriching small amounts of uranium hexafluoride gas using 10 of its new IR-2 centrifuges...Full Story

U.S. Satellite Strike Sets Back Space Weapons Ban The U.S. Navy’s successful use last week of a modified missile interceptor to destroy a failing spy satellite is likely to undermine efforts to ban weapons from space, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 22)...Full Story

Rice to Focus on North Korea in Asia Trip U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to focus on the North Korean nuclear standoff during her trip through Asia this week, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Feb. 22)...Full Story

	Monday, February 25, 2008

Homeland Security Needs More Money, Senator Says U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) on Friday urged the top members of the Senate Budget Committee to boost the proposed fiscal 2009 budget for the Homeland Security Department (see GSN, Feb. 5). “The president’s FY 2009 budget request for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) includes some useful increases for targeted programs,” Lieberman stated in a letter to committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-S.D.) and ranking Republican Judd Gregg (N.H.).  “Nevertheless, the proposed budget again shortchanges too many urgent homeland security needs.  I am particularly troubled by the aggressive cuts to core federal grant programs that states, municipalities and tribes rely on to keep their citizens safe.” The draft $50.5 billion budget for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 represents a 6.8 percent increase from the current year, not including emergency supplemental funds allocated this year.  “If that funding is included, the proposed budget in fact represents a 4.5 percent decrease in overall DHS funding,” Lieberman wrote. Lieberman identified a host of DHS programs and offices he believes require additional funding.  These include: —The State Homeland Security Grant Program, which would see funding drop from $950 million this year to $200 million to support states’ basic preparedness efforts.  The program should instead receive the $950 million authorized by the 2007 9/11 Commission Recommendations Act, as should the Urban Area Security Initiative that provides security funds for major U.S. cities, Lieberman said. —The Metropolitan Medical Response System, which maintains stockpiles of biological and chemical agent countermeasures in 124 jurisdictions and ensures that medical personnel and facilities are integrated into emergency planning.  Lieberman said the White House has tried to kill the program over the last four years but said it instead should receive $63 million. —Port, transit, rail, bus and truck security, which would receive $405 million in grants under the Bush administration proposal.  That is a steep drop from funding provided by Congress for this year, Lieberman said.  He called for the port and transit sectors — the latter including rail security — to each receive $400 million in the coming fiscal year. Lieberman said he supported the $563 million requested for the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office but added that $68 million should not be spent on acquisition of 87 next-generation portal radiation monitors until they can be proven significantly more effective than those now in use (see GSN, Jan. 9). Lieberman also backed plans to boost funding for chemical site security efforts by $13 million to $63 million (U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman release, Feb. 22). Back to top

Advanced Centrifuges Operating, Iranian Official Confirms Iran confirmed yesterday that it has begun using a next-generation centrifuge model capable of enriching uranium more than twice as fast as its predecessor, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 22). Diplomats close to the International Atomic Energy Agency investigation of Iran’s nuclear activities said earlier this month that Tehran was enriching small amounts of uranium hexafluoride gas using 10 of its new IR-2 centrifuges. Iran has been suspected of pursuing its enrichment program to develop nuclear weapons, but officials in Tehran insist the nation’s nuclear program is intended solely for civilian energy production.  A recent U.S. intelligence estimate indicated that Iran halted nuclear weapon development in 2003 but maintains uranium enrichment activities that could aid a military program. “We are (now) running a new generation of centrifuges,” Iranian state media quoted Javad Vaidi, deputy head of Iran’s supreme national security council, as saying yesterday. Iran must install additional centrifuges to enrich uranium at the rate needed for a nuclear energy or weapons program, AP said (Nasser Karimi, Associated Press I/Denver Post, Feb. 24). IAEA officials said Friday that they had shown Iran intelligence from the United States and other countries suggesting that Tehran had worked with technology to develop a nuclear weapon, the New York Times reported. On Feb. 15, Washington agreed to supply the U.N. nuclear watchdog with evidence suggesting Tehran’s nuclear weapons ambitions.  Since 2005, the United States and other nations had refused to surrender the evidence, obtained from a laptop computer purportedly acquired from an Iranian nuclear technician. Among the most significant documents in the collection was the schematic layout of the internal components of what appears to be a warhead.  “This layout has been assessed by the agency as quite likely to be able to accommodate a nuclear device,” the agency says in its report on the Iran nuclear probe.  It added that the proof is not absolute explosives and Iran insists its missile program uses “conventional warheads only.” The agency has not concluded whether the documents signify that Iran had once operated a nuclear weapons program, a top IAEA official told reporters Friday. (David Sanger, New York Times, Feb. 22). Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s envoy to the U.N. nuclear watchdog in Vienna, said the U.S. information was largely fake and was provided to the agency too late to be vetted properly.  U.S. officials rebuffed the Iranian statement, saying that Tehran could have disclosed the information from its nuclear file years ago (Karimi, AP, Feb. 24). The Bush administration continued its push for a new round of sanctions against Iran following the release Friday of the IAEA report, the Washington Post reported. The report contained a “number of things that were quite disturbing,” said U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Zalmay Khalilzad, referring to Iran's refusal to confirm U.S. claims that it had operated a nuclear weapons program in the past.  “They did not own up to it.” “Yes, they have answered some questions and made some progress on some issues," he said.  “But those are not the most central issues, and on the most central issues of the past, there is no progress.  In fact, things are getting worse.” Iran “is clearly making all kinds of statements that suggest that it's not going to deal with the will of the international community," said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.  “It hasn't answered questions about past activities in covert programs that they say they didn't have.” State Department officials urged U.N. Security Council members to pass a third sanctions resolution against Iran.  The agency expects to lead talks today between the council’s five permanent members and Germany (Warrick/Wright, Washington Post, Feb. 23). Khalilzad said in an interview published by a French newspaper today that the United States has little time stop Iran’s suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons, Reuters reported. “From a certain point of view, time is not working in our favor — the Iranians are now planning to develop a new, more efficient generation of centrifuges and if they master that technology to produce fissile material they will have access to better enriched uranium,” he told Le Figaro. “Given that Iran had a nuclear weapons program in violation of its obligations under the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty, given the regime's policy, its rhetoric, its association with certain groups … it would be too risky to let it acquire the capacity to obtain nuclear weapons,” he said (Reuters, Feb. 25). Vaidi warned yesterday that imposing new sanctions on Iran would carry international consequences, Agence France-Presse reported. “Some Western countries want to follow the wrong path and we suggest they take heed from their past experiences,” the Islamic Republic News Agency quoted him as saying.  “Choosing the wrong path and adopting a new resolution will have a cost for those countries.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said that new sanctions would only create “slight problems” for Iran (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Feb. 23). In Washington, the U.S. Treasury Department is building a case that Iran’s Central Bank is providing assistance to other Iranian financial institutions in avoiding U.S. sanctions, the Wall Street Journal reported. The bank is the lynchpin of Iran’s financial system and the country’s primary remaining connection to international financial networks, the Journal said. The United States would have to present a strong case to its allies to convince them to participate in penalties.  The effect of possible U.S. sanctions against the bank would rely largely on how many other nations participate in efforts to isolate the institution. If a coalition of countries agrees to take action against the bank, it could encourage the Security Council to step up its own punitive measures against Iran over its disputed nuclear activities (Glenn Simpson, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 25). Back to top       Rice to Focus on North Korea in Asia Trip U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to focus on the North Korean nuclear standoff during her trip through Asia this week, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Feb. 22). Rice was in Seoul today for the inauguration of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.  She is expected to conduct talks with officials there and then move on to China and Japan. Rice indicated she would not hold talks with North Korean officials, saying any such meeting would not be “useful at this time,” United Press International reported (United Press International, Feb. 23). North Korea agreed last year to give up its nuclear programs in exchange for energy, security and diplomatic benefits.  The regime to date has halted operations at its Yongbyon nuclear complex and begun disabling three key facilities. However, progress on the deal faltered this year after Pyongyang failed to submit a full declaration of its nuclear activities that met U.S. expectations. “We need a complete declaration from the North Koreans about both their proliferation activities, their current plutonium program — which they are in the process of disabling — but also the HEU (highly enriched uranium) program, that they need to make clear what has happened there,” Rice said Friday, according to AFP. Washington also wants North Korea to provide information on its reported support for a suspected Syrian nuclear program (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Feb. 24). Washington is looking at whether North Korea might offer information on proliferation and uranium enrichment activities in a document that would remain secret, a senior U.S. official told Reuters. Pyongyang must provide a full declaration all at once if it wants to be removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism and be freed from penalties under the Trading with the Enemy Act, the official said. “The difficulty with that is that the North is quite clear that … their expectation is that they would be removed from the terrorism list and TWEA.  And those things are really impossible to consider without this issue settled,” he said (Arshad Mohammed, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Feb. 22). North Korean officials denied any involvement in construction of a purported Syrian nuclear reactor that was the target of an Israeli air strike in September, a U.S. expert said last week following his return from Pyongyang (see GSN, Feb. 22). “Their comment was, we don’t have anything to do with Syria in the nuclear arena,” said Siegfried Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The regime also said it had not received any nuclear technology from the black market operation once led by top Pakistani atomic scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan,  the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 11). “When I bring up the Pakistan connection, they say, ‘That’s your story, we haven’t dealt with the Pakistanis on uranium enrichment,’” said Hecker, who made his annual trip to North Korea from Feb. 12-16 (Scott Lindlaw, Associated Press I/Fresno Bee, Feb. 22). A foreign media operation for the first time last week was allowed into North Korea’s sole operating nuclear reactor, AP reported. In footage from broadcaster APTN, workers are seen removing spent nuclear fuel from the 5-megawatt reactor as part of the ongoing disabling process.  The chief engineer at the Yongbyon complex acknowledged that the pace of work has slowed. “It has been slowed down.  Especially the discharge of fuel rods from the core has been slowed down,” said Yu Sun Chol.  “We think the main reason for that is that the United States and other six-party countries, they have not fulfilled their commitments for the agreement of the six-party talks” (Associated Press II/Detroit News, Feb. 22). Back to top       China Expanding Submarine Fleet The Chinese submarine fleet by the end of this decade could be larger than its U.S. counterpart, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Jan. 8). China has more than 30 advanced submarines as well as dozens of outdated models, according to analysts from the United States and other Western nations.  While Beijing could have more submarines than the United States by 2010, the U.S. fleet would still possess a technological advantage, they said. “I would say that the U.S. feels a strong threat from Chinese submarines,” said Andrei Chang, a Chinese and Taiwanese armaments expert who edits the Kanwa Defense Review.  “China now has more submarines than Russia, and the speed they are building them is amazing.” Beijing’s primary goal in expanding its submarine fleet could be to hinder Washington’s ability to respond to Chinese military action against Taiwan, experts say (see GSN, Jan. 2).  China considers the island to be part of its territory and has threatened to forcefully block any moves toward Taiwanese independence. The U.S. Defense Department is keeping close watch over Chinese moves, officials have said.  “Chinese submarines have very impressive capabilities, and their numbers are increasing,” Adm. Timothy Keating, the top U.S. military commander for Asia, said in Beijing recently. China in July 2007 exhibited models and photographs of its new Shang-class nuclear attack submarine in Beijing.  The People’s Daily reported then that two Shang-class submarines were already in operation. Three months later, nuclear weapons expert Hans Kristensen discovered a commercial satellite image showing two suspected Chinese Jin-class ballistic missile submarines (see GSN, Oct. 5, 2007).  The finding surprised some military experts who had not expected China to build a second Jin-class submarine so soon after introducing its first vessel in 2004 (David Lague, New York Times, Feb. 25). Back to top       India Heads Toward Nuclear Deal Showdown The Singh administration in India appears headed for a showdown by April with political allies who have opposed a proposed civilian nuclear trade deal with the United States, the Indo-Asian News Service reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 21). “This has nothing to do with any deadline set by the U.S.  If the Left issue is not resolved by April, then the deal is as good as gone,” a senior government source said. U.S. officials in recent weeks have pressed New Delhi to move forward with the agreement in hopes of seeing it enacted before the Bush administration leaves office in January 2009. Indian communist parties, though, have threatened to force early elections if Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s ruling party moves ahead with the nuclear deal.  If Indian communists refuse to compromise on the deal, Singh’s administration could either continue to delay the agreement or propose a parliamentary confidence vote that might produce new elections if defeated, IANS said. Meanwhile, Indian nuclear negotiators expect to hold their fifth meeting with International Atomic Energy Agency officials before the end of February in a bid to complete a required safeguards agreement. Under the pending agreement, New Delhi would open its civilian nuclear sites to international supervision in return for access to nuclear material and technology.  The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s standard safeguards pact cannot be applied to India because New Delhi possesses nuclear weapons and has not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. “The safeguards pact itself may take some more time, may be another couple of rounds, but it will eventually be done well in time by mid-March.  The real point is when the government decides to take a political call on when to force the issue with the Left,” the source said (Indo-Asian News Service/India eNews, Feb. 24). Back to top       Estonia to Receive New Radiation Detectors New radiation detectors and communications equipment is set to be installed at Estonian border sites, airports and seaports, the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration announced today (see GSN, Feb. 22). The U.S. technology is being provided through the agency’s Second Line of Defense program.  Estonian personnel are also set to receive training on operating the equipment. The two nations for several years have collaborated on maintenance of radiation detectors previously deployed in Estonia, according to a press release. “By signing this document, the United States and Estonia are agreeing to a commitment to keep dangerous nuclear and radiological material out of the hands of terrorists and criminals, for the greater good of European and U.S. citizens alike,” U.S. Ambassador Dave Phillips said in the release. The Second Line of Defense program has deployed radiation and nuclear detection equipment at more than 160 locations worldwide (U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration release, Feb. 25). Back to top       Nukes Unlikely to be Abolished, Nobel Winner Says The world’s nuclear powers are unlikely to eliminate their arsenals, Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling said last week (see GSN, Oct. 11, 2005). “I don’t trust any country, even my own country,” Schelling, a 2005 recipient of the Nobel Prize for economics, said Thursday during a speech in Colorado Springs, Colo.  “You’re never more than a few days or a few weeks away from rebuilding them and it’s impossible to forget how to make the damn things.  I don’t like the idea of pretending we can be a world without nuclear weapons.” Schelling has applied game theory to issues such as nuclear deterrence and arms control.  He expressed hope that nuclear weapons would remain a deterrent force as they were during the Cold War, the Pueblo Chieftain reported. Iranian officials might look to nuclear weapons so “they don’t have to worry that the United States, Israel or Russia will invade them,” he said (see related GSN story, today). Responding to a question, Schelling said the Bush administration’s policy of preventive war is “the stupidest idea I’ve ever heard.  If I was an Iranian, I would want nuclear weapons.  I think we’d be wise to shut up about preventive war as a strategy” (see GSN, March 17, 2006). While there have been no fewer than six conflicts that involved at least one nuclear power — including the Korean, Vietnam and Falklands wars — the taboo against actually using one of the weapons has persisted for decades, he said. “Nobody [in the 1950s] could have imagined that we could have finished the 20th century without exploding a nuclear bomb in anger,” Schelling said (John Norton, Pueblo Chieftain, Feb. 23). Back to top

U.S. Satellite Strike Sets Back Space Weapons Ban The U.S. Navy’s successful use last week of a modified missile interceptor to destroy a failing spy satellite is likely to undermine efforts to ban weapons from space, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 22). By targeting the satellite, the Navy demonstrated the ability of its Aegis missile defense technology to hit objects in space other than enemy ballistic missiles.  The event illustrated the technological similarities between “space weaponry” and “missile shields,” AP said. The United States has opposed moves to ban weapons from space due to concerns that such a prohibition could compromise Washington’s existing missile defenses, AP said.  Orbital missile killer systems are included in some U.S. designs. China, India, Israel and Japan have also sought “hit-to-kill” missile defense technologies, said Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control analyst at the New America Foundation. “It seems to me we may never have had the opportunity to constrain the technology,” Lewis said.  “It's pretty hard for me to see that happening now.” A draft space weapons ban recently proposed by China and Russia does not directly address ground-based antisatellite systems (see GSN, Feb. 13).  “People will beat up on the United States” at the current U.N. Conference on Disarmament because of the Wednesday satellite shot, said Michael Krepon, an arms control expert at the Stimson Center in Washington. “The Russians and Chinese will point to their treaty and try to drum up support.  But it isn't really going anywhere, for familiar reasons,” he said.  “Nobody can define a space weapon and nobody can verify a space weapon.” Stalled efforts to agree on a full space weapons ban could give way to a new push to develop a more informal code of conduct over weapons in space, experts said. “There’s a growing consensus among nations, including space-faring and missile-possessing nations, that there should be some rules of the road, some standard for responsible behavior in space,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.  “A key is going to be what the next U.S. administration decides to do.” Responding to a survey of U.S. presidential hopefuls conducted by the Council for a Livable World, Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) supported establishing a space weapons code while Senator Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) said she would confine space weapons “as much as possible.”  No Republican candidate responded. However, one longtime observer of arms talks expressed skepticism about an informal code governing space weapons.  “Very often, such codes simply don’t work.  People ignore them,” said Jozef Goldblat, a Geneva scholar (Charles Hanley, Associated Press I/International Herald Tribune, Feb. 25). After analyzing debris left by the satellite strike, the U.S. Defense Department today said it has a “high degree of confidence” that the missile destroyed the satellite’s fuel tank, “reducing, if not eliminating, the risk to people on Earth from the hazardous chemical.” The tank contained 1,000 pounds of toxic hydrazine that U.S. officials believed could endanger humans if the fuel tank had fallen to earth. “By all accounts this was a successful mission,” Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a statement at the Pentagon today.  “From the debris analysis, we have a high degree of confidence the satellite's fuel tank was destroyed and the hydrazine has been dissipated” (Robert Burns, Associated Press II/Google News, Feb. 25). Independent defense analysts said they expect few or no pieces of satellite debris to fall to the surface, AP reported. “I wouldn't want to get hit by one, but the chances are pretty small,” said analyst John Pike. Within hours of the successful strike being reported, China said it was watching for dangerous debris and asked the United States to release operational data. “We provided a lot of information … before it took place,” U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters, adding that he wants details from the strike to be transparent. “We are prepared to share whatever appropriately we can,” he said (Pauline Jelinek, Associated Press III/International Herald Tribune, Feb. 22). Back to top       Czech Leader Expects Missile Defense Deal This Week The Czech Republic appears set this week to sign off on a deal to host a U.S. missile defense radar base, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 12). “We have reached a stage that we are able to complete the talks during my visit to America,” said Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, who is scheduled to meet Wednesday with President George W. Bush. There are no “serious problems that would prevent us from completing the treaties” this week,” Topolanek said.  However, a final deal would be contingent upon Poland accepting its part of the U.S. missile shield plan for Europe — hosting 10 missile interceptors (Karel Janicek, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, Feb. 25). Polish officials last week canceled negotiations on the proposal, seemingly killing any chance of finalizing a deal before Prime Minister Donald Tusk visits Washington in early March (see GSN, Feb. 22). Leaders in Warsaw over the weekend again linked acceptance of the U.S. plan to support from Washington for modernizing the Polish military, AP reported. “As long as we cannot sign an agreement about a satisfactory contribution by the Americans to the modernization of our armed forces, we can’t talk about our agreeing to an American installation on our territory,” Polish Defense Minister Bogdan Klich told the Polska daily. Poland has requested U.S. short- and medium-range air defenses as part of a deal for housing the interceptors.  The Polish military also needs upgrades in 17 areas, Klich said. While Poland could face new threats by joining the U.S. missile shield, such a move could also produce benefits, Klich said. “You don’t generally mess with the strong, but the weak you can give a kick to,” he said.  “If you stand by the strong, it pays off.  And that would be the positive result of the American presence in Poland.” Russia has cited the U.S. proposal as a threat to its security and has said it might take retaliatory measures (Ryan Lucas, Associated Press II/Google News, Feb. 24). Back to top       Australia Could Join U.S. Missile Defense System Australia might consider entering into limited missile defense cooperation with the United States, Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said yesterday (see GSN, June 5, 2007). Smith made the announcement after he and Australian Defense Minister Joel Fitzgibbon met Saturday with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, Bloomberg reported. “We are yet to be persuaded, we're not rushing to embrace it,” he said.  “We are just giving very careful consideration to it and we'll do that in conjunction with our United States ally.” U.S. missile shield technology is advancing and could provide protection to deployed Australian military personnel, Smith said. “We don't want to deprive ourselves sensibly of any capacity which might be of benefit to our troops if they're in the field, either in a U.N. peacekeeping force or an international force,” he said (Jesse Riseborough, Bloomberg, Feb. 23). Back to top

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