The Bush administration has increased its study of ways to deter attacks like those organized by terrorist leader Osama bin Laden (Getty Images). U.S. Seeks Ways to Deter Terrorist WMD Attacks Once thought to be virtually impossible, the concept of successfully deterring terrorists has gained a foothold in the Bush administration, where officials have been developing more sophisticated strategies in recent years, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, March 14)...Full Story

Putin Receives Bush Letter on Weapons Issues U.S. President George W. Bush in the last week sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin promoting cooperation in areas such as nonproliferation, missile defense and nuclear arms control, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, March 17)...Full Story

U.N. Powers Preparing Nuclear Incentives for Iran The five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations are planning to renew an offer of incentives to Iran in hopes of persuading the nation’s leaders to forgo uranium enrichment activities, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, March 17)...Full Story

	Tuesday, March 18, 2008

U.S. Seeks Ways to Deter Terrorist WMD Attacks Once thought to be virtually impossible, the concept of successfully deterring terrorists has gained a foothold in the Bush administration, where officials have been developing more sophisticated strategies in recent years, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, March 14). “We’ve now begun to develop more sophisticated thoughts about deterrence looking at each one of those individually,” said Michael Leiter, acting director of the National Counterterrorism Center.  “Terrorists don’t operate in a vacuum.” “What we’ve developed since 9/11, in six or seven years, is a better understanding of the support that is necessary for terrorists, the network which provides that support, whether it’s financial or material or expertise,” he added. “Obviously, hard-core terrorists will be the hardest to deter,” concurred Michael Vickers, the Defense Department’s top special operations policy-maker.  “But if we can deter the support network — recruiters, financial supporters, local security providers and states who provide sanctuary — then we can start achieving a deterrent effect on the whole terrorist network and constrain terrorists’ ability to operate.” “We have not deterred terrorists from their intention to do us great harm,” Vickers added,  “but by constraining their means and taking away various tools, we approach the overall deterrent effect we want.” Key to the new deterrence concept is identifying vulnerable “territory” that terrorists would not want to lose. U.S. officials have been seeking ways to add uncertainty into terrorist decision making, raising the prospects that an attack could fail or backfire by killing too many innocent victims, the Times reported. These strategies have employed cyberspace tactics of phony e-mails and Web site submissions. In addition, U.S. officials have been seeking technologies to identify the source of any WMD materials terrorists might use, thus allowing supplying nations to be held responsible (see GSN, Feb. 20).  The idea is to use “attribution as deterrence,” said Rear Adm. William Loeffler of the U.S. Strategic Command (Schmitt/Shanker, New York Times, March 18). Back to top       Justice Dept. Reports Flaws in Terror Watch List A number of federal law enforcement agencies have not consistently updated information on the U.S. list of known and suspected terrorists or reliably removed individuals cleared of suspicion, according to an audit released yesterday by the U.S. Justice Department’s inspector general (see GSN, Sept. 7, 2007). The report says the FBI’s Terrorist Screening Center generally exercises proper oversight regarding placement of names on the list, but notes that it can take up to four months for names to be added, the New York Times reported.  The report also notes a lack of coordination between efforts by various federal law enforcement agencies to add names to the list. “We remain committed to working with the Department of Justice to increase coordination,” FBI spokesman John Miller said in a statement yesterday that acknowledged some weaknesses in the bureau’s stewardship of the data. The watch list was created following the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 (Philip Shenon, New York Times, March 18). Back to top

Pentagon Boosts Biosensor Deal by $43.1M The U.S. Defense Department yesterday said it has given General Dynamics Corp. a $43.1-million contract increase for a deal to produce biological agent detection equipment for the Navy, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Feb. 6). Under the contract, the company is expected to provide the Navy with 60 units of the Joint Biological Point Detection System, which can detect and identify dangerous disease agents (Associated Press, March 17). The Pentagon has also arranged a $23.8 million contract with Smiths Detection to provide portable sensors for U.S. troops under the Joint Chemical Agent Detector project, United Press International reported yesterday. The department is expected to decide soon whether to purchase as many as 54,000 more of the sensors, which can detect chemical weapons agents and dangerous industrial substances (United Press International, March 17). Meanwhile, researchers in Australia have designed a mobile biological detection system, the Australian Associated Press reported yesterday. The sensor currently identifies biological agents individually, but Australia plans to provide the program with additional funds for developing a detector capable of labeling many materials, Parliamentary Secretary Anthony Byrne said.   (Australian Associated Press, March 17). Back to top

U.N. Powers Preparing Nuclear Incentives for Iran The five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations are planning to renew an offer of incentives to Iran in hopes of persuading the nation’s leaders to forgo uranium enrichment activities, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, March 17). Economic, technological and security offers are among the incentives, along with Boeing aircraft parts and support for peaceful nuclear energy efforts, according to U.S. and European officials.  Iran rejected a similar proposal two years ago, but diplomats said they are aiming to win over incoming Iranian lawmakers following last week’s parliamentary elections. “It’s not clear that the Iranian regime has transmitted to the Iranian people the details of the very generous and substantial offer that we made to them in 2006.  In fact, it seems as though they have deliberately suppressed it,” said one British official.  “So we are very keen on finding ways to ensure that the Iranian people know what is on offer to them, which is what their regime is denying them by their intransigence,” he said. The permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany will also “try to be more precise about the timing and the advantages the Iranians could gain,” according to a high-level French official. In considering the offer, Iran is likely to look for “full and active U.S. participation,” said Jon Wolfsthal, a senior scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Last time, the Europeans pulled the U.S. in, but it was only interested in participating as a way to get the (permanent Security Council members) to agree to sanctions,” he said.  “They should make it as difficult as possible for [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad to argue that the United States doesn’t want a deal” (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, March 18). Meanwhile, the chairman of the U.N. sanctions monitoring committee reported last week that less than half of all U.N. member nations have submitted the required reports on their compliance with economic penalties imposed on Iran over its uranium enrichment program in 2006 and 2007, the Associated Press reported. Out of the 192 member nations, 88 countries have reported on their compliance with the first sanctions resolution passed in December 2006 while 72 countries have reported on the second resolution passed in March 2007, said Johan Verbeke, Belgium’s ambassador to the United Nations.  He added that only one new compliance report has been filed in the last 90 days. Verbeke recommended creating a questionnaire to help U.N. delegations complete the mandatory reports (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/PR-inside, March 17). Elsewhere, the United States yesterday expressed disapproval of an energy deal reached by Switzerland and Iran’s state-run gas company, Agence France-Presse reported. “We have conveyed to the Swiss that major new oil and gas deals with Iran send precisely the wrong message at a time when Iran continues to defy U.N. Security Council resolutions,” the U.S. Embassy in Bern said in a statement (Agence France-Presse/Google News, March 17). Back to top       Indian Factions Reach No Deal on Nuclear Trade Pact An Indian domestic political impasse remained in place yesterday after New Delhi’s leaders briefed critics of a tentative nuclear trade deal with the United States, Reuters reported.  Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has been unable to advance the agreement in the face of opposition from a group of key supporters of his ruling coalition (see GSN, March 14). The trade deal would enable India to purchase U.S. nuclear technology and materials in exchange for placing the nation’s civilian nuclear activities under international supervision. In a meeting with the critics yesterday, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee described an inspections agreement the government has negotiated with the International Atomic Energy Agency.  However, the briefing failed to assuage the four communist parties that have opposed the deal. “We have sought some clarifications and we will meet again next month,” said communist leader Debabrata Biswas (Reuters/Washington Post, March 17). Perhaps adding to the lack of agreement, Mukherjee refused to share the text of the IAEA inspections agreement, raising concerns among the critics that they were only briefed on parts of the text, the Times of India reported. Neither government officials nor the communist critics offered an estimate of when the deal might advance, with both resisting U.S. pressure to complete the pact before the end of the Bush administration (see GSN, Feb. 12). “There is no deadline.  No one can dare talk to us about deadline.  Only American officials talk of deadline,” said a top Left official.  “Till we reach consensus on IAEA, what is the meaning of deadline?” (Times of India, March 18). Meanwhile, newly released documents have indicated that Australian officials refused entry visas to two Indian nuclear officials last year because of concerns their visit would advance India’s nuclear weapons program, the Melbourne Age reported yesterday. The two scientists from the Bhabha Atomic Research Center, Dipankar Mukherjee and Mohd Afzal, had planned to visit an Australian firm to purchase an X-ray machine, the Age reported. Their visas were denied, however, with one official saying the scientists worked at a site that played “a leading role in India’s nuclear weapons research.” “Knowledge the individuals could acquire in Australia could be of assistance to India’s WMD program,” said Foreign Ministry official John Sullivan in a letter to the X-ray firm (Baker/Smiles, Melbourne Age, March 17). Back to top       More U.S., North Korean Nuclear Talks Planned North Korea’s official news agency reported today that the regime plans further talks on its nuclear program with the United States, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, March 17). The top negotiators from the two nations conducted “an in-depth discussion on the differences” last week in Geneva, according to the Korean Central News Agency.  They agreed to “sit face-to-face with each other and continue the discussion” on the deadlock over a 2007 agreement under which Pyongyang would give up its nuclear programs in exchange for energy, diplomatic and security benefits. The deal has been plagued this year by U.S. claims that the Stalinist state has failed to provide a mandatory full accounting of its nuclear programs and North Korean moves to slow disablement of three key facilities due to discontent regarding the pace of rewards.  The talks in Switzerland were “helpful,” said China, which hosts the six-nation negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear program. “We hope (North Korea) and the U.S. can continue to have communication and meet each other halfway so as to properly resolve the relevant issues,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang (Associated Press/Washington Post, March 18). Back to top       Watchdog Urges Faster Removal of Uranium, Plutonium from Livermore Nuclear Weapons Laboratory The U.S. Energy Department should speed its plans to remove nuclear weapon materials from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California by 2012, a watchdog group urged yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 8). The facility houses about 1 ton of weapon-grade plutonium and uranium, creating an unacceptable risk of terrorist attack, according to report issued by the Project on Government Oversight. “If terrorists gained access to this material, they could detonate them, devastating the San Francisco Bay Area and inland regions — the key agricultural areas of California,” said a POGO release. The group further criticized the Energy Department for exempting the facility from stringent security standards that other U.S. nuclear sites must meet (Project on Government Oversight release, March 17). National Nuclear Security Administration spokesman John Broehm, however, said security was “very high” at Livermore and that there is no need to begin upgrading security measures because the weapon materials would be removed by 2012, the Associated Press reported (Associated Press/Washington Examiner, March 17). Back to top       Classified Nuclear Weapon Schematic Posted Online A classified diagram of one of the world’s first nuclear weapons has been posted on the WikiLeaks Web site, DailyTech reported yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 19, 2001). The drawing appears to depict the U.S. “Fat Man” atomic bomb dropped on the Japanese city of Nagasaki at the end of World War II.  It was part of a 1947 report by British physicist William Penney that was made public and then reclassified in 2002. Penney worked at the Manhattan Project that produced the bomb and later led early British nuclear weapon development. “This diagram is not really a secret to foreign intelligence services,” according to the WikiLeaks analysis, “nobody is going to be surprised by this design, just the fact that it’s appeared in public.” WikiLeaks is described as a Web site promoting transparency in government to promote “reduced corruption, better government and stronger democracies.”  There were apparently no qualms about placing the information online, DailyTech reported. “The real problem about building one of these designs is the rarity … of plutonium and polonium, as well as the ability to fabricate sophisticated high explosives to exacting specifications,” according to WikiLeaks, which argued the drawing remains in the public record.  “We’re not talking about IEDs here:  to build a nuclear weapon requires a state” (Tom Corelis, DailyTech, March 17). Back to top

Man Held Ricin for “Self-Defense,” Brother Says A man hospitalized for more than a month with severe respiratory and kidney problems possessed vials of ricin for “self-defense” and did not intend to launch an attack with the deadly toxin, the man’s brother told the Associated Press (see GSN, March 17). Roger Bergendorff, 57, regained consciousness last week at Spring Valley Medical Center in Las Vegas.  The hospital yesterday switched his condition from critical to fair. Bergendorff said the ricin discovered in a Las Vegas hotel room last month was his and was the likely source of his illness, he told his brother Erich Bergendorff by phone Sunday. “He just confirmed that it was not intended for anybody,” Erich Bergendorff told AP.  “It was something that would be used for his own purposes, for self-defense.” Roger Bergendorff cooperated during questioning by investigators Friday, his brother said.  Authorities have declined to say if they would press charges in the case (Allison Hoffman, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, March 18). Back to top

Putin Receives Bush Letter on Weapons Issues U.S. President George W. Bush in the last week sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin promoting cooperation in areas such as nonproliferation, missile defense and nuclear arms control, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, March 17). The letter preceded this week’s trip by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Moscow for meetings expected to focus on controversial U.S. plans to deploy missile defense elements in Europe. The purpose of the letter is to cement cooperation on issues where the two nations are at or near accord and to seek agreement on matters where they remain more at odds, Rice said.  The message appears to be an effort by Bush to smooth out rocky U.S.-Russian relations as the two presidents prepare to leave office, according to the Times. “We believe that in some of these issues we can probably dot the i’s and reach final agreement,” Putin said yesterday as he met with Gates and Rice.  He added that “there are still a lot of outstanding problems that need to be discussed.” Afterward, Rice said “we talked to them about the potential to look at all the different issues that the United States and Russia have — some of them cooperative, some of them in which we have disagreements — and to try to put this on a firm footing going forward.” Gates expressed optimism that the United States and Russia could reach agreement on the U.S. missile shield proposal, which Moscow has so far strenuously opposed. “The environment in our meetings was positive today,” he said.  “Whether that leads to a positive conclusion remains to be seen” Gates said Washington also hopes to reach accord with Moscow on some sort of follow-up to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty when it expires next year (see GSN, Feb. 4).  The Bush administration so far has been seemingly cold to Russia’s calls for a formal pact to succeed the treaty limiting the countries’ long-range nuclear delivery vehicles.  However, Gates indicated the White House could support such a deal as long as it was shorter and required less extensive negotiations than START (Thom Shanker, New York Times I, March 18). Incoming Russian President Dmitry Medvedev indicated yesterday that the two nations remain apart on the missile defense issue but that Moscow was ready for discussions, the Associated Press reported. “We are determined to go ahead,” he said ahead of talks scheduled for today.  “We need to provide for continuity in the Russian-U.S. relationship.  We have all the requisite tools to do this.” Rice said the former Cold War rivals have “a firm foundation for cooperation” on the issue. Russian officials have said the nation’s security could be threatened by the U.S. proposal to place 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic.  They have questioned the Bush administration’s argument that the system is intended to provide defense against a potential Iranian missile threat.  Compromise plans developed in Moscow and Washington have yet to gain traction in the other capital (Robert Burns, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, March 17). Differences remained today, Rice said after meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. “When we have differences, we can talk about them in an atmosphere of mutual respect,” Rice said. Gates said Russian officials are still considering U.S. offers designed to smooth out the dispute, AP reported.  “I would expect and hope that we would hear back reasonably quickly,” he said. Lavrov said the strongest strategy for ending the controversy “is to not set up this preferred positioning site at all” (Gearan/Burns, Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, March 18). While en route to Moscow, Gates had reaffirmed the Bush administration’s offer to keep components of the European missile shield nonoperational until Iran was known to possess missiles capable of reaching the continent, the Times reported. “When we see flight testing that leads us to believe the Iranians are close to developing a capability to hit our allies in Europe, that would be the point at which we would operationalize the sites,” Gates said. Under such a plan, interceptors might not be placed on Polish soil until such a threat had developed, he suggested (Thom Shanker, New York Times II, March 17). Back to top       Report Finds Overspending on U.S. Missile Defense The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has spent at least $1 billion more than anticipated over the last two years as it deployed elements of a shield to protect the United States from enemy missile threats, the Government Accountability Office said yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 13, 2007). The GAO report noted that the agency had exceeded costs for some specific programs, which include deploying missile interceptors on land and at sea and improving defense systems on ships, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, March 7). Five programs faced as much as $1.9 billion in cost overruns due to technical problems, questionable planning and additional troubles, the report said.  The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system for detecting, tracking and eliminating enemy missiles was expected to exceed cost estimates by $22.1 million in the last fiscal year (see GSN, Dec. 3, 2007).  The total cost overrun could reach $1.42 billion, according to the report. The Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system for destroying short- and medium-range missiles was expected to go $91.1 million over budget in fiscal 2007 (see GSN, Feb. 12).  The program could see a full cost overrun of $325.8 million, according to the report (Joelle Tessler, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, March 17). Back to top

U.S. Lawmaker Introduces “Dirty Bomb” Security Bill U.S. House Representative Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) last week introduced legislation intended to increase safeguards against radiological “dirty bomb” attacks in the United States (see GSN, July 12, 2007). House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), a co-sponsor of the Radiological Materials Security Act, has warned that radiological materials that could be used to produce a dirty bomb are often insufficiently secured and vulnerable to theft. The bill, if approved, would call for the Homeland Security Department to assess the potential vulnerabilities and consequences of an event involving a radiological weapon; require the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to implement security measures already in place in New York state; and offer federal grants for sites to implement measures for securing their radiological materials (U.S. Representative Yvette Clarke release, March 17). Back to top

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