China has begun deploying Dongfeng 31 ballistic missiles, shown above, and other additions to its nuclear-capable missile arsenal, according to a U.S. Defense Department report (Federation of American Scientists photo). Chinese Nuke Arsenal Spiked Since 2006, Report Shows New U.S. figures suggest that the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal appears to has increased by about one-third since 2006, the Federation of American Scientists said yesterday (see GSN, March 4). The boost is linked to China’s deployment of a new generation of solid-fuel cruise missiles and ICBMs.  ..Full Story

Bush Requests Less Funding for Threat Reduction The Bush administration in its fiscal 2009 budget is seeking less funding for various threat reduction programs in the former Soviet Union than was provided in appropriations bills for this year, according to the March edition of Arms Control Today (see GSN, Jan. 22)...Full Story

U.S. Seeks North Korean Declaration by March North Korea needs to submit the declaration of its nuclear activities before April 1 in order to avoid additional delays to the process of shutting down its atomic sector, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said yesterday (see GSN, March 6)...Full Story

	Friday, March 7, 2008

Homeland Security Lists Successes at Five Years To observe the five-year anniversary of its creation, the U.S. Homeland Security Department yesterday issued an extensive list of its accomplishments in protecting the country from terrorism (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2007). A five-page fact sheet covers achievements in several areas, including protecting the nation from dangerous individuals and materials, safeguarding critical infrastructure and developing a culture of preparedness.  Among the noted successes are: —Deployment of more than 1,000 radiation detectors at U.S. entry points, ensuring that 97 percent of cargo containers are scanned at seaports and that combined scanning rates at the northern and southern borders is above 90 percent (see GSN, March 5); —Boosting security at ports, waterways and coasts, through Coast Guard escorts of vessels carrying hazardous materials, efforts to reduce the threat posed by small vessels and other measures (see GSN, Sept. 6, 2007); —Expansion of the Biowatch disease agent detection system, by the planned increase of automated sensor deployment in the next fiscal year from two to 12 jurisdictions (see GSN, Feb. 8, 2007); and —Establishment of national security standards for chemical plants (see related GSN story, today). “The department has experienced a number of significant tests in its short history [and] is intensely focused on the next major task:  ensuring a smooth transition from one administration to the next,” the agency said (U.S. Homeland Security Department release, March 6). Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff and President George W. Bush yesterday lauded the administration’s antiterrorism efforts but warned that the threat against the United States persists, the Washington Post reported. “We have significantly reduced the risk of a major attack in the short term,” Chertoff said. “One of the reasons we’re seeing more attacks in Europe is because they think it’s easier,” he added. “We have made our borders more secure,” Bush said, also noting efforts to halt illicit transfers of biological, chemical, nuclear and radiological materials into U.S. cities. However, al-Qaeda remains a threat and similarly minded extremists are “continuing to refine themselves and improve themselves.  If we don’t do more than we’re doing, if we stop, eventually the risk is going to start to increase,” Chertoff said (Hsu/Branigin, Washington Post I, March 7). Homeland Security, a conglomeration of 22 agencies placed under one roof five years ago, still faces a host of problems, the Post reported yesterday. The operation of the department remains unwieldy, particularly when it is forced to develop expensive new programs in the wake of disasters such as Hurricane Katrina or controversies such as the scuttled plan to have a Dubai firm take over operations at six U.S. ports (see GSN, March 6, 2006). “DHS is like a speedboat and it keeps turning … constantly shifting gears,” said Stewart Verdery Jr., former assistant homeland security secretary for border and transportation security. The department has also faced technical problems with costly security programs.  Homeland Security might need $22 billion and another 16 years for deployment of more sophisticated baggage-screening systems at airports and faces questions about its $1.2 billion plan for deployment of next-generation radiation detectors, the Post reported (Spencer Hsu, Washington Post II, March 6). Back to top

Bush Requests Less Funding for Threat Reduction The Bush administration in its fiscal 2009 budget is seeking less funding for various threat reduction programs in the former Soviet Union than was provided in appropriations bills for this year, according to the March edition of Arms Control Today (see GSN, Jan. 22). While U.S. threat reduction programs have seen some expansion to new countries the overall trend has been toward closing up shop in former Soviet states. For the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1, the White House is seeking $414 million for Defense Threat Reduction Agency nonproliferation programs in the former Soviet Union.  The administration had sought $348 million for this year, but Congress bumped funding levels up to $426 million. Funding would also be reduced for other Defense Department programs.  The agency’s Strategic Offensive Arms Elimination effort, which focuses on decommissioning or destruction of Russian missiles, silos and related technology, would receive $80 million under the Bush budget.  Lawmakers provided $91 million for the program in this fiscal year. Following completion of two projects, funding for security of stored Russian nuclear weapons would drop from $45.5 million to $24 million.  However, the budget for security of nuclear weapons during transport would rise from $38 million to $41 million. The Bush administration has allocated no money for construction of the troubled Russian chemical weapons disposal plant at Shchuchye, which last year received $1 million from Congress.  Millions more would be needed before it could begin operations, Arms Control Today reported (see GSN, April 12, 2007). The administration requested an increase in funding for the Biological Threat Reduction Program.  It asked for $184 million, which would be $26 million more than the program received for this fiscal year. At the Energy Department, the semiautonomous National Nuclear Security Administration is seeking $430 million for global nonproliferation programs.  The agency received $624 million for nuclear materials protection and cooperation programs in fiscal 2008. The funding request to boost security at the Russian Atomic Energy Agency Weapons Complex in seven closed cities is $32 million.  The NNSA program received $79 million for this year. However, the Bush administration is seeking a $27 million funding boost to $220 million for the Global Threat Reduction Initiative to destroy or safeguard nuclear and radiological material.  More than half of the money would be used to return such material to Russia and the United States from foreign facilities. The State Department is seeking $499 million for nonproliferation, antiterrorism and related programs in fiscal 2009.  That would be a $16 million funding increase. Funding for the Nonproliferation and Disarmament Fund would increase from $33 million provided in this fiscal year to $40 million, while the Global Threat Reduction program budget would rise from $57 million to $64 million (Daniel Arnaudo, Arms Control Today, March 2008). Back to top       U.S. Northern Command Focused on WMD Defense The commander of the U.S. Northern Command said yesterday that his “No. 1 priority” is to help prepare the nation for an act of terrorism involving a weapon of mass destruction, the White House Bulletin reported (see GSN, Feb. 1). “This potential availability of WMD to terrorist groups is of vital concern, especially as terrorists thrive in the ‘gray area’ where notions of crime and armed conflict overlap,” Gen. Victor Renuart, who has led the command since March 2007, said during a hearing on Capitol Hill. Northern Command was established in 2002 to lead Defense Department homeland security programs and to ensure the military is prepared to work alongside civilian agencies during a crisis (White House Bulletin, March 6). Meanwhile, the U.S.-based International Anticounterfeiting Coalition believes that terrorists might disguise lethal biological agents as medicine, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday. “Chemical and biological threats to the U.S. and their allies will become more widespread as such capabilities are easier to develop, hide and deploy than missiles armed with WMD,” Jeffrey Williams, managing director of the Orion Support Inc. think tank, said during a security forum in the Philippines (Agence France-Presse/Straits Times, March 6). Back to top

Chinese Nuke Arsenal Spiked Since 2006, Report Shows New U.S. figures suggest that the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal appears to has increased by about one-third since 2006, the Federation of American Scientists said yesterday (see GSN, March 4). The boost is linked to China’s deployment of a new generation of solid-fuel cruise missiles and ICBMs.  While decommissioning of older missiles in coming years is expected to cut into the growth, “the trend is toward a slightly larger arsenal in the future,” the Federation of American Scientists said yesterday. In its annual report on China’s military capabilities, the U.S. Defense Department said that Beijing is deploying a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Dongfeng 31, but estimates that fewer than 10 of the missiles are operational on the same number of launchers.  China also appears to have deployed fewer than 10 Dongfeng 31A missiles, a longer-range version of the 31, even though there have been no reports of the weapon undergoing flight testing, according to the federation.  The 31A could reach the continental United States. China has deployed additional Dongfeng 21 short-range missiles since 2006, for a total of between 60 and 80 of the missiles on roughly 60 launchers, the report estimates.  In 2007, the Pentagon estimated that China had upward of 50 missiles fielded on 34 to 38 launchers. China’s submarine-launched JL-1 is apparently not operational, as indicated by its exclusion from the new report.  The newer JL-2 is expected to become operational by 2010, but its estimated range was reduced by about 10 percent, from roughly 4,970 miles to about 4,475 miles.  A submarine in Chinese waters could not use the missile against the continental United States and could hit Hawaii only by entering the Sea of Japan or passing the Japan-Okinawa island chain, according to the federation. The Defense Department said earlier this week that Washington and Beijing had “agreed to move forward on our dialogue on nuclear strategy and policy.”  The Pentagon said that “a discussion between Chinese military officers and Chinese military academics and counterparts here in the U.S.” would be organized within the next few months (Hans Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, March 6). Back to top       U.S. Seeks North Korean Declaration by March North Korea needs to submit the declaration of its nuclear activities before April 1 in order to avoid additional delays to the process of shutting down its atomic sector, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said yesterday (see GSN, March 6). “It’s important that we try to get through this in March because we’re kind of running out of time in calendar year ’08,” Hill, top U.S. envoy to six-nation negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear program, said during a speech at Columbia University. Progress has stalled on a 2007 agreement under which Pyongyang would give up its nuclear programs in exchange for energy, security and diplomatic benefits, Reuters reported.  The United States says North Korea has yet to provide a required full accounting of its nuclear activities, while the regime has slowed the pace of work to disable three key facilities due to discontent with the rate at which it is receiving promised rewards. “Everything we’ve asked them to do, they can certainly do,” Hill said.  “Moreover, everything we’ve asked them to do, they’ve already agreed to do.” Hill said he believes the standoff over the nuclear declaration can be resolved.  However, the denuclearization process needs to be finished by the end of 2008, he said.  The next U.S. president takes office in January 2009. “What I’m worried about is getting enough time to finish the whole process because we don’t want partial denuclearization,” Hill said (Reuters/New York Times, March 6). Back to top       Nuclear Talks Still an Option for Iran, Rice Says Six world powers plan to continue offering economic and political incentives in hopes of persuading Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities that could produce material for a nuclear weapon, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday (see GSN, March 6) “The six … continue to follow a dual-track strategy,” Rice told journalists at NATO headquarters, in reference to sanctions against Iran agreed upon by the U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany that were enacted this week and their continued offer of nuclear discussions with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana.  Solana has spent more than 18 months trying to negotiate the suspension of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for an incentives package.  Tehran said Wednesday that it would refuse future nuclear talks outside the International Atomic Energy Agency (see GSN, March 5). “We are continuing to talk about what the path would look like for Iran, should it choose the path of negotiation,” Rice said. “There’s a lot on the table, the Iranians want to know more about it, or want to know in greater depth what those elements mean,” she said, referring to offers that Iran has repeatedly rejected (Agence France-Presse/Google News, March 6). Back to top       Communists Prepare to Battle U.S.-Indian Deal Indian communist political parties are prepared to make every possible effort to block the implementation of the government’s planned civilian nuclear trade agreement with the United States, The Hindu reported (see GSN, March 6). Indian communists have long opposed the deal — which would make U.S. nuclear fuel and technology available to India for civilian energy production — on grounds that it would undermine India’s sovereignty.  They have threatened to force early elections if the government moves ahead with the agreement. “It will amount to a gross violation of the majority opinion in parliament.  The left parties will take all the necessary steps to stop the government from taking such a harmful step,” the Communist Party of India (Marxist) said in its party publication. “It is for the Congress [party’s] leadership to decide whether it wants to be seen as kowtowing to the pressure of the Bush administration or acting democratically and heeding the voice of parliament and the people.  And this decision has to be a quick and clear one. The future of this government depends on the decision they will take,” the statement said. The party expressed reservations about the Hyde Act, the U.S. law that provides a legal basis for the deal.  The communists said it could make Washington’s obligations contingent on New Delhi taking certain stances on various international nonproliferation concerns. The party also discounted U.S. assurances that Washington would arrange delivery of nuclear fuel to India through the International Atomic Energy Agency if the Hyde Act prevents the United States from offering fuel itself. “Even a layman can understand that the IAEA is an international regulatory authority and not a supplier of fuel or nuclear equipment.  It is the U.S. which is the supplying party in the 123 Agreement.  And as has been repeatedly stated by the U.S. authorities, they are bound by the provisions of the Hyde Act” (Vinay Kumar, The Hindu, March 7). Back to top

U.S. Responds to Concerns on Boston Biodefense Lab The U.S. National Institutes of Health said yesterday it had established two commissions in response to public concerns over a biodefense laboratory being built at Boston University to study the world’s deadliest disease agents (see GSN, Feb. 4). One committee is expected to “guide the agency's efforts to address safety concerns raised by community representatives and other members of the public,” the federal agency said in a press release  Meanwhile, an independent scientific panel would provide technical guidance, with an eye particularly toward risk assessments, the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy reported. “All of the analyses conducted to date indicate that the risks posed by this lab are extremely low," NIH Director Elias Zerhouni said in a statement.  “We recognize that the community has remaining concerns, however, and we will address those concerns rigorously objectively, and comprehensively.” The facility is now scheduled to be finished by April 30, 2009. Critics have questioned the wisdom of operating a disease research laboratory in a heavily populated area.  The National Research Council in November criticized an existing risk assessment of the facility as “not sound and credible,” noting a “lack of transparency” in its methods and faulting agency officials for using pathogens with relatively low transmission rates in the report’s scenarios (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy release, March 6). “We are confident that the lab will be safe, and this third-party examination is an important step in the public process,” Boston Medical Center spokeswoman Ellen Berlin said yesterday in a prepared statement (Gideon Gil, Boston Globe, March 6). Back to top

More Money Sought for U.S. Missile Defense The Bush administration is seeking $12.7 billion for its missile defense programs in fiscal 2009, a $1.9-billion boost from its request for this year, the Arms Control Association reported in this month’s Arms Control Today (see GSN, Feb. 5). The U.S. Missile Defense Agency would receive $8.89 billion under the proposed budget for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1.  Last year, U.S. lawmakers provided $8.7 billion for the agency, $185 million less than the administration had requested. The agency increased its request for deploying 10 strategic ground-based interceptors in Poland and a missile-tracking radar station in the Czech Republic from $310 million this year to $719 million.  For fiscal 2008, Congress denied an $85-million request to begin deploying the system because agreements over the defenses had not been reached with the European nations.  The administration has expressed confidence on reaching deals with both countries this year (see GSN, March 6). The MDA request includes $238 million to begin building the interceptor base, said agency spokesman Rick Lehner, who said a test flight is scheduled for next year of the interceptor that would be deployed in Poland.  The weapon’s design has been modified from those deployed in the United States. The agency to date has deployed 24 Ground-based Midcourse Defense units in California and Alaska, and expects to have 54 units deployed by 2013. Officials plan to deploy 147 Standard Missile 3 interceptors by that time.  So far, they have outfitted 10 U.S. warships to fire SM-3 interceptor missiles and deployed 21 of the weapons onto vessels. The agency plans to deploy the first of four Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense firing units in 2009.  The system would eventually be equipped with 96 interceptors for defense against short- and intermediate-range missiles. Work also continues on the Airborne Laser and Kinetic Energy Interceptor systems, Arms Control Today reported. Observers have often questioned the system’s capabilities to function in realistic situations against missiles employing countermeasures (see GSN, Feb. 28).  The U.S. Defense Department’s Operational Test and Evaluation Office questioned the missile defense effort in a report released in January.  Evaluators called the system’s capabilities against longer-range missiles “very basic” but said it was becoming more effective against short-range missiles.  The report gave more positive reviews of the Aegis and THAAD systems. More than half of the Army’s $986-million fiscal 2009 missile defense budget would fund the purchase of 108 Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missile interceptors.  The system has shown mixed results when used in combat situations against short- and medium-range missiles. The Air Force has requested $2.3 billion in funds for the Space-Based Infrared System, a planned worldwide satellite network designed to monitor for ballistic missile launches.  Of that money, $1.8 billion would fund the acquisition of two satellites expected to be launched in fall 2009.  The system would eventually include four satellites (Wade Boese, Arms Control Today, March 2008). Back to top

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