U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) yesterday chaired a hearing on nuclear terror (Alex Wong/Getty Images). Experts Warn of Nuclear Terrorism Threat The risk of a terrorist nuclear attack on a U.S. city has grown in the past five years, an expert told a U.S. Senate committee yesterday (see GSN, March 31). “I definitely conclude the threat is greater and is increasing every year with the march of technology,” said Cham Dallas, director of the Institute for Health Management and Mass Destruction Defense at the University of Georgia...Full Story

Korean Nuclear Declaration Could Arrive This Month North Korea appears ready to issue a full declaration of its nuclear holdings and activities this month, Bloomberg reported (see GSN, April 15)...Full Story

U.N. Powers Differ on Iran Nuclear Incentives Six world powers and the European Union failed to resolve differences today over proposed updates to an offer of diplomatic and financial incentives intended to persuade Iran to halt activities that could support nuclear weapons development, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 15; Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, April 16)...Full Story

	Wednesday, April 16, 2008

CTR Program Deactivates Six Warheads The U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction program last month deactivated six nuclear warheads from the former Soviet Union and destroyed six ICBM launchers, Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) announced yesterday (see GSN, April 10). The Nunn-Lugar program also destroyed an ICBM as well as two SS-N-23 ballistic missiles, submarine-launched weapons that could each carry four independently targeted warheads farther than 5,100 miles.  During the Cold War, the Soviet Union maintained seven Delta IV-class submarines — each equipped with 16 SS-N-23 missiles and 48 other SLBMs — that it often used to patrol the Atlantic Ocean off the U.S. coastline. The CTR program this month also completed the destruction of Russia’s SS-24 ICBM fleet and related equipment. Since it was established in 1991 to secure and eliminate weapons of mass destruction in former Soviet states, the Nunn-Lugar program has deactivated 7,266 strategic nuclear warheads and destroyed 683 ICBMs, 496 silos, 125 mobile ICBM launchers, 629 SLBMs, 456 SLBM launchers, 30 ballistic missile-capable submarines, 155 strategic bombers, 906 nuclear air-to-surface missiles and 194 nuclear test tunnels. The initiative has also secured 382 nuclear weapon train shipments, increased security measures at 16 nuclear weapon storage facilities and built 13 biological agent monitoring stations.  Efforts under the program have denuclearized Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, nations that once respectively held the world’s third, fourth and eighth largest nuclear arsenals. By sponsoring the International Science and Technology Centers, the Nunn-Lugar program has helped to provide civilian opportunities for 58,000 former weapons researchers.  The International Proliferation Prevention Program has involved 14,000 former weapons personnel in 750 projects and established 580 technology-sector positions (U.S. Senator Richard Lugar release, April 15). Back to top

Experts Warn of Nuclear Terrorism Threat The risk of a terrorist nuclear attack on a U.S. city has grown in the past five years, an expert told a U.S. Senate committee yesterday (see GSN, March 31). “I definitely conclude the threat is greater and is increasing every year with the march of technology,” said Cham Dallas, director of the Institute for Health Management and Mass Destruction Defense at the University of Georgia. Testifying before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, Dallas offered projections of the damage that would be caused by the detonation of a small nuclear weapon in Washington. He said the death toll from a 1-kiloton device could be about 25,000 people, while fatalities from a 10-kiloton bomb could reach 100,000, the Washington Post reported. More could perish if they succumbed to the desire to flee the city and thus exposed themselves to additional radiation, Dallas and other public health experts testified (Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post, April 16). Indeed, one of the biggest challenges facing the federal government if a low-yield nuclear bomb exploded in a major U.S. city might not be evacuating hundreds of thousands of residents.  It would be convincing them to stay put, the experts said. As counterintuitive as it appears, large swaths of major U.S. cities would not be rendered unlivable by a 10-kiloton nuclear blast, which would be slightly smaller than the bombs the United States used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, during World War II, the officials said. To be sure, the blast would have devastating consequences.  In Washington, for example, a blast near the White House would destroy the area from Constitution Avenue to K Street, according to the Dallas model. The city would face about 100,000 fatalities and about 150,000 serious injuries from the nuclear bomb cited, Dallas said.  According to the study, a cloud of radiation in the shape of a cigar would extend from the blast zone to Capitol Hill and stretch eastward into Maryland.  But the blast would not devastate the entire city and radiation would be confined to the relatively small area, Dallas said. "People upwind would not need to take any action," said Ashton Carter, co-director of the Preventive Defense Project at Harvard University.  "Downwind, but outside the hot cigar, the best move for many people would be not to move at all, but to seek moderate shelter" (see GSN, May 11, 2007). The hearing was the third that committee Chairman Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) and senior Republican Susan Collins (Maine) held to examine the government's ability to prepare for and respond to an act of nuclear terrorism (see GSN, April 2). "A 10-kiloton device — a plausible yield for a bomb constructed by terrorists — could be smuggled into a seaport as cargo, flown over a city in a private plane, or driven into a city in a truck," Collins said.  “We hope that the improvements we've made in port security and in other areas would make that difficult to carry out but we can't exclude the possibility of such a successful enterprise." Carter and Dallas said the possibility of such an attack is higher than ever.  Lieberman said it would be important for residents in outlying areas of a city to know they do not have to rush to the highways.  But despite their conclusions, Dallas and Carter agreed that mass panic would likely ensue after a blast. Dallas predicted that as many as 500,000 residents would try to flee the Washington area in the event of a blast.  Collins believes public understanding of what to do in the event of an attack has "gone backward" in recent years.  "I think the public in many ways is less prepared today than we were at the height of the Cold War," she said (Chris Strohm, CongressDaily, April 16). Back to top       Korean Nuclear Declaration Could Arrive This Month North Korea appears ready to issue a full declaration of its nuclear holdings and activities this month, Bloomberg reported (see GSN, April 15). The list was expected Dec. 31 as part of the second phase of North Korean denuclearization, for which the isolated nation stands to receive economic, diplomatic and security benefits.  However, the process has stumbled amid U.S. assertions that Pyongyang had failed to address key segments of its nuclear program. Envoys from Pyongyang and Washington reportedly reached a tentative deal last week under which North Korea would provide details of its plutonium-based programs while acknowledging U.S. suspicions regarding uranium enrichment efforts and support for a Syrian nuclear program (see GSN, March 31). That agreement opened the door for the release of the declaration, a South Korean official told the Hankook Ilbo newspaper.  Once that occurs, negotiations could begin on removing North Korea from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. It might also allow for another round of nuclear negotiations in mid-May involving China, Japan, Russia, the United States and both Koreas, the official said (Bomi Lim, Bloomberg, April 16). The seeming resolution to the standoff has not yet cleared the way for progress on the 2007 denuclearization deal, Reuters reported today. There are significant differences on details of the full accounting of Pyongyang’s plutonium program, which is believed to have produced material for several nuclear weapons, a Japanese government official said. Leaders in North Korea and the United States must also sign off on the deal.  U.S. President George W. Bush has indicated his support for the plan (Teruaki Ueno, Reuters/Washington Post, April 16). U.S. lawmakers are also likely to take a close look at the recent agreement, the Financial Times reported. The Bush administration has shown “a consistent willingness to lower the bar with the North Koreans,” said Representative Ed Royce (R-Calif.), ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade Subcommittee. A “rush to achieve a quick diplomatic fix with Pyongyang, without addressing the Syrian connection, Pyongyang’s highly enriched uranium program, counterfeiting and the human rights concerns of our allies, is not an agreement that can stand the test of time,” House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking Republican  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Fla.) said yesterday in a letter. However, committee Chairman Howard Berman (D-Calif.) believes the disarmament effort has “returned to the right track” and is “happy with the newly revived efforts to continue talking with North Korea,” a spokeswoman said. Action from Congress is expected to be necessary as the process continues, one congressional aide said.  That would include providing a waiver to the amendment barring assistance to North Korea in the wake of its 2006 nuclear test. “They are going to start needing things from us.  Our acquiescence is not going to suffice,” he said (Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times, April 16). Back to top       U.N. Powers Differ on Iran Nuclear Incentives Six world powers and the European Union failed to resolve differences today over proposed updates to an offer of diplomatic and financial incentives intended to persuade Iran to halt activities that could support nuclear weapons development, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 15; Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, April 16). The daylong meeting in Shanghai followed Iran’s announcement last week that it plans to expand its uranium enrichment program, the Associated Press reported (Cara Anna, Associated Press I/MSNBC, April 16). “We discussed how to conduct dialogue and negotiations with Iran,” said Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister He Yafei.  “We have agreed on most points in the proposal, however there are some outstanding issues that remain to be resolved (see GSN, April 11). “As soon as an agreement is reached on this proposal … it will be referred to the Iranian side and at that time we hope the Iranian side will respond positively to it and make its own contributions to a proper settlement,” he said, adding that the powers should agree on “a comprehensive, durable and proper solution” that would address Iran’s diplomatic, financial and nuclear energy concerns.  He did not specify a timetable for restarting talks with Iran, which says its nuclear program is intended for energy production (AFP I). China has attempted to show initiative in addressing the international stalemate over Iran’s disputed nuclear activities, but Beijing remains concerned that it could upset oil export arrangements with the Middle Eastern country, Reuters reported today. “With this balance of interests, it’s difficult to imagine China being a place for breakthroughs,” said Shen Dingli, a nuclear politics specialist at Fudan University in Shanghai.  “The equation of interests won’t change and China isn’t some magical place to solve problems.  But it’s important to show that China is part of the international mainstream on these issues.” China and Russia are together pressing new incentives to encourage Tehran to suspend its disputed nuclear work (Chris Buckley, Reuters I, April 16). Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that Iran is willing to engage in nuclear talks if the opposing sides do not challenge Tehran’s nuclear rights in the discussions. “The Iranian nation is after talks and negotiations but negotiations in a logical and just framework and in line with the fundamental rights of nations,” Ahmadinejad told an Iranian audience in an address broadcast on state television.  He added that Tehran would not concede “one iota” of its nuclear entitlements, but said he would not immediately comment on Iran’s ongoing nuclear standoff with Western powers (Zahra Hosseinian, Reuters II, April 16). In the United States, Republican presidential contender John McCain said on MSNBC’s “Hardball” yesterday that he would exert significant nonmilitary pressure on Iran to abandon its controversial nuclear work. “I believe we can act with nations with values and principles that we hold dear and exercise enormous pressure — diplomatic, trade, financial,” the Arizona senator said. To take military action against Iranian nuclear sites, McCain said he would have to put forward an “even more convincing argument that it was necessary to do so because of our failure to find weapons of mass destruction” following the 2003 Iraq invasion, an action justified largely by alleged Hussein regime WMD capabilities that later proved nonexistent. “There’s a little credibility gap” because of Bush administration claims on Iraq, McCain said (Andy Sullivan, Reuters III, April 15). Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton yesterday called for direct negotiations with Iran and criticized the Bush administration’s approach of isolating the country. “The approach that the Bush administration has taken toward Iran has been a loser.  It has neither changed behaviors [nor] produced results,” according to the New York senator.  “I’ve advocated both that carrot and that stick, and I think that would be what I (would) take to try to create the beginning of lower levels of diplomatic engagement, some ongoing process” (Andy Sullivan, Reuters IV, April 15). Meanwhile, U.S. national security adviser Stephen Hadley and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni today discussed Iran’s nuclear program during a meeting in Jerusalem, AFP reported. The discussion addressed “the necessity of continued international action to increase sanctions" against Iran, according to a Foreign Ministry statement (Agence France-Presse II/NASDAQ.com, April 16). Gen. Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, Iran’s deputy army chief, said in Tehran yesterday that his nation’s military would retaliate forcefully following any Israeli attack, AP reported. “Should Israel take any action against Iran, we will eliminate Israel from the scene of the universe,” he said. Tensions between the nations have risen since Ahmadinejad said in 2005 that Israel would someday be “wiped off the map.”  Iran possesses nuclear-capable missiles that could reach Israel (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press II/International Herald Tribune, April 15). Back to top       U.S. Nuclear Laboratory to Cut 535 Jobs A key U.S. nuclear weapons laboratory announced plans yesterday to reduce its staff by 535 workers beginning as soon as next month, the Contra Costa Times reported (see GSN, Dec. 20, 2007). The cuts are the first layoffs of full-time staffers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California in 35 years, according to the Times. “Implementing an involuntary separation is not a decision I take lightly,” laboratory director George Miller said in a press release.  “But our laboratory must be agile enough to respond to the challenges facing our nation.” Since new management took over last year (see GSN, Oct. 3, 2007), the laboratory has cut about 500 temporary and support personnel and reduced another 215 permanent jobs through buyouts.  “Through these efforts and normal attrition, we have decreased the lab's work force by nearly 900 people,” Miller told workers in an e-mail yesterday.  “This is a good start, but not enough to meet our goals.” The round of layoffs announced yesterday would cut the total work force to about 6,600.  The cuts were spurred by unexpectedly high costs of operation, the Times reported (Betsy Mason, Contra Costa Times, April 15). One California lawmaker criticized the decision. “These layoffs will have serious consequences for all of us," said Representative Jerry McNerney (D).  “Simply put, the announcement could threaten the lab's ability to continue some of its pioneering research. “Moving forward, I will continue the fight for funding to prevent future job loss, ensure the compensation available to employees is enough to attract and retain top talent, and see that Livermore lab can continue its critically important work” he added (U.S. Representative Jerry McNerney release, April 15). Back to top       Counterterrorism Group Begins Planning Drills Officials from more than 20 nations in a nuclear terrorism prevention group convened for the first time yesterday to begin planning drills for participating countries, the U.S. State Department said (see GSN, March 25). The first meeting of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism exercise planning group included drill designers representing the defense, energy, foreign affairs, law enforcement and intelligence branches of various governments as well as other agencies (U.S. State Department release, April 15). Back to top

Bush Seeks $9 Billion for Biodefenses The Bush administration’s $9 billion biological defense budget request for fiscal 2009 would bring total federal spending in this sector to more than $57 billion since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 5). If approved, the budget would be $2.5 billion higher than the amount appropriated for this fiscal year, according to the nonprofit organization’s analysis. The large majority of the additional funding is due to the release of $2.175 billion for Project Bioshield, the U.S. program to develop and acquire countermeasures for biological and other WMD agents.  However, the funding level for all work outside of Bioshield would be 5.3 percent higher for the next fiscal year than in fiscal 2008. The spending focus remains on “research, development, acquisition and stockpiling of medical countermeasures and protective equipment, with over $23 billion devoted to these functions through FY2009,” the center said in a press release. Through the next fiscal year, more than $10 billion would have been directed toward increasing local, state and hospital preparedness for a biological event.  More than $4.1 billion would have gone to medical surveillance and biological agent detection programs.  Funding for prevention of biological strikes by terrorists or other nonstate entities would have received $1.13 billion over the years.  The percentage of fiscal 2009 biodefense funding for prevention — 3.4 percent — is higher than any year since 2001. “With nearly $50 billion already appropriated since 2001, it’s time to begin asking whether the money is being well spent,” Alan Pearson, director of the center’s Biological and Chemical Weapons Program, said in the release.  “In some cases, such as spending for prevention and for strengthening the public health infrastructure, the answer appears to be yes.  But in others, the answer may be no.  A lot of money is devoted to research and development, and to environmental detection, but it is not clear that the returns have been as great as promised.” Fiscal 2009 begins on Oct. 1 (Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation release, April 15). Back to top

Chemical Agent Cleanser Developed in Canada Researchers at Queen’s University in Ontario have developed a system capable of cleansing surfaces of chemical agents such as soman, tabun and VX, United Press International reported yesterday (see GSN, July 12, 2006). In independent testing, the alcohol-based system proved more than 99 percent effective in eliminating the nerve agents.  When placed in a solution, the lethal materials were destroyed within 30 seconds.  Contaminated surfaces were almost entirely decontaminated in 10 minutes. “Our research results with model compounds demonstrated the method to be extremely effective, but the bigger question to us was, would it work on live agents?” professor Stan Brown, who developed the technology with researcher Alexei Neverov, said in a press release.  “These latest tests corroborate every result seen in our testing of this method over the past five years. The system, which can also be used against pesticides, has no temperature storage requirements and is safe in most conditions (United Press International, April 15). Back to top

Raytheon Wins $400M Missile Defense Radar Contract The U.S. Defense Department announced yesterday it would pay $400 million to defense contractor Raytheon for the design and development of a radar for the planned European missile shield (see GSN, April 15). The system produced by Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems would spot and monitor enemy missiles in their midcourse flight phase, the Associated Press reported (Associated Press/Houston Chronicle, April 15). Back to top

Radioactive Material Disappears in Spain A case holding radioactive material disappeared yesterday from a vehicle outside of Madrid, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 1). The Spanish nuclear watchdog agency said the case, which contained geological analysis equipment including “two sources of low-level radioactivity,” was likely stolen. “The material that was removed presents no radiological risk if it remains closed and intact, since the radioactive sources are inside and protected in capsules,” but the substance could “pose risks if it is opened or the equipment destroyed,” the agency said in a statement (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, April 16). Back to top

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