Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has faced strong political opposition to a planned nuclear trade deal with Washington (Prakash Singh/Getty Images). Indian Party Not Ready to Sacrifice Power for Nuclear Deal By Elaine M. Grossman Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The Indian prime minister and his party would opt to stay in power rather than fracture their ruling coalition over a controversial nuclear energy agreement with the United States, a key party official said this week (see GSN, April 1). “There cannot be a deal without a government,” Abhishek Manu Singhvi, a member of the Indian Parliament and the Congress party’s chief spokesman, said during a Washington appearance. Singhvi was discussing a trade pact announced by U.S. President George W. Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2005.  ..Full Story

Additional Scrutiny Sought on North Korea The United States said yesterday a system is being developed to ensure that North Korea provides an honest accounting of its nuclear programs in an overdue declaration, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 16)...Full Story

FBI Arrests Ricin Suspect The FBI arrested a down-on-his-luck man yesterday in Las Vegas, charging him with possession of a biological toxin.  Roger Bergendorff was taken into custody shortly after being released from the hospital where he had spent the last two months recovering from possible exposure to the lethal toxin ricin, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, March 18)...Full Story

	Thursday, April 17, 2008

Indian Party Not Ready to Sacrifice Power for Nuclear Deal By Elaine M. Grossman Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The Indian prime minister and his party would opt to stay in power rather than fracture their ruling coalition over a controversial nuclear energy agreement with the United States, a key party official said this week (see GSN, April 1). “There cannot be a deal without a government,” Abhishek Manu Singhvi, a member of the Indian Parliament and the Congress party’s chief spokesman, said during a Washington appearance. Singhvi was discussing a trade pact announced by U.S. President George W. Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2005.  The deal would allow New Delhi to buy nuclear materials and technology from the United States in exchange for placing its civilian nuclear activities under international supervision.  However, implementation has been stalled by leftist supporters of Singh’s government who have threatened to force new elections if the prime minister moves forward.  Communist lawmakers have asserted that the terms of the deal would infringe on the South Asian nation’s sovereignty. “We are prepared to stake a lot of things for the deal and then, to put it bluntly, maybe we would even stake the continuance or the survival of the government on a matter of principle,” Singhvi said Tuesday at the Heritage Foundation. However, “when the sacrifice of a government doesn’t get you the deal, then you are in fact inviting death without martyrdom,” he said.  “So why have death if you don’t even have martyrdom?” Singh’s government has reached a tentative agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency on provisions for monitoring its civil nuclear facilities.  If the trade agreement is to go forward, the IAEA arrangement must be followed by action at the international Nuclear Suppliers Group to lift a ban on the sale of atomic material to New Delhi.  Approval by the U.S. Congress would be a final hurdle. It does not appear, though, that India’s ruling party would continue to push for the agreement if it meant being forced from power. Singhvi spent most of his presentation this week touting the agreement.  He argued that the pact would bolster his nation’s growing demand for electricity as its economy expands. Yet, it is “important in a democracy with a coalition to carry all our constituent partners with us,” Singhvi said.  “We want the deal but ultimately it has to come out of consensus.” Even if the Indian prime minister could resolve domestic political resistance to the accord, obstacles would remain on the international level, according to one critic. “Thankfully, the deal may be doomed by internal strife within the coalition,” Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said last week.  However, he said, “the deal is still going to face, I think, principled and stiff opposition from key states in the Nuclear Suppliers Group.” Kimball spoke at an April 8 panel discussion sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute.  Singhvi has not concluded, though, that the deal is dead. “We have not given up,” he said.  “We do not accept this as the end of the road.” The lawmaker estimated that his party has roughly 10 to 12 months to win the acceptance of its partners in the Indian parliament.  That timing might not allow final approval of the deal in the U.S. Congress before Bush leaves office in January, Singhvi acknowledged.  There is some doubt in Washington that a Democratic administration would continue work on the pact (see GSN, April 4). Even if the nuclear agreement fails, the United States and India will continue to have a strong and multifaceted relationship, Singhvi said. “The intersections are really manifold” between the two nations — to include cooperation in developing business, exploring space and fighting terrorism — and will persist no matter what happens with the deal, he said. For its part, the White House yesterday reaffirmed its commitment to the nuclear trade accord, the Indo-Asian News Service reported (see GSN, April 11). “We're still working on it and are very committed to it,” White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said. Back to top       Additional Scrutiny Sought on North Korea The United States said yesterday a system is being developed to ensure that North Korea provides an honest accounting of its nuclear programs in an overdue declaration, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 16). The declaration is a key component of a 2007 agreement under which Pyongyang would give up its nuclear program in exchange for economic, diplomatic and security benefits.  However, progress on denuclearization has faltered this year amid a dispute over North Korea’s apparent unwillingness to fully address its atomic activities in the declaration, which was due Dec. 31. The new plan calls for North Korea to describe in detail its plutonium program, which is believed to have provided enough material for several nuclear weapons, and to “acknowledge” U.S. suspicions regarding uranium enrichment efforts and nuclear support for Syria. One of the working groups established last year under the six-party talks would organize the mechanism to verify the contents of the declaration. “It’s a new effort.  It’s something that has been integrated into the talks, and I guess as a bureaucratic grouping then organized within the context of those talks,” said U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. Observers continued to knock the plan yesterday, AFP reported. “After months of demanding that the North live up to its promise to provide a ‘complete declaration of its nuclear programs,’ the U.S. is now backtracking,” the Wall Street Journal said in an editorial. The agreement “rests on trust and not verification,” said former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, who has become a leading critic of Bush administration policies on North Korea and Iran.  The Stalinist state’s “escape from accountability could break down international counterproliferation efforts,” he added. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has said the North Korean declaration must be “verified and it has to be verifiable” (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, April 16). Washington plans to soon send a delegation to Pyongyang to finalize the details on the agreement, the Associated Press reported yesterday.  North Korea might then release the document before the end of the month. “We’re not done yet and they’re not done yet,” a high-level U.S. official said.  “We’ll see whether what they come up with really satisfies us and the others that they have accounted for their activities. “Verification is the key here,” said one official (Anne Gearan, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, April 16). The six-party process involving China, Japan, Russia, the United States and both Koreas is at a “critical” stage, new top South Korean nuclear negotiator Kim Sook said today. “We are pushing to resume the six-party talks as soon as the declaration is submitted.  All participatory countries agree to this idea,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, April 17). Back to top       EU Calls on Iran to Boost Nuclear Transparency The European Union this week urged Iran to sign the Convention on Nuclear Safety, a move that would enable other countries to question Tehran on safety measures in place at its Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 16). During a closed, two-week meeting of EU nations, Slovenian delegate Tomaz Nemec noted that Iran is “the only country building a nuclear power plant without being a contracting party to the Convention on Nuclear Safety.” Slovenia, which currently holds the group’s rotating presidency, called on “Iran to accede to the convention.” If it signs the treaty, Iran could not be forced to disclose details on disputed nuclear work that the United States and other Western powers suspect is aimed at nuclear weapons development.  Still, the convention could provide a means for the international community to keep tabs on the Bushehr facility, which is nearing completion and could begin operating this year. Iran has not signaled an intention to sign the treaty, according to one diplomat who attended the conference.  Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iranian envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, declined to comment on the speech because he had not reviewed its contents (Associated Press I/Google News, April 16). Meanwhile, U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said that China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union had a “good meeting” yesterday, although they failed to agree on what incentives to offer Iran for halting its controversial nuclear work. “They had some good discussions but the bottom line is they are going to have to continue discussions on it,” McCormack said of the daylong talks in Shanghai.  He noted that in order to receive the incentives, Iran must halt its uranium enrichment program, which could produce material for a nuclear bomb.  Iran says the program is intended to generate nuclear power plant fuel (Associated Press II/International Herald Tribune, April 17). Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert today expressed confidence that Iran would  not acquire nuclear weapons, Agence France-Presse reported. “I can say … that, to my knowledge, and on the basis of what I know and read, I believe the efforts of the international community will succeed, and that Iran will not become a nuclear power,” he told the Maariv daily.  “There is an enormous effort on the part of the international community to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear country.  Israel plays an important part in those efforts, without leading them” (Agence France-Presse/Google News, April 17). Elsewhere, the Democratic contenders for the U.S. presidency addressed the Iran issue during a debate yesterday in Philadelphia, Reuters reported. Senator Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) said the United States should offer security assurances to Middle Eastern states that vow not to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs. “I think that we should be looking to create an umbrella of deterrence that goes much further than just Israel,” she said.  “We will let the Iranians know that, yes, an attack on Israel would trigger massive retaliation, but so would an attack on those countries that are willing to go under the security umbrella and forswear their own nuclear ambitions.” Both Clinton and Senator Barack Obama (Ill.) said they were dedicated to preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power. “I will take no options off the table when it comes to preventing [Iran] from using nuclear weapons or obtaining nuclear weapons,” Obama said.  “And that would include any threats directed at Israel, or any of our allies.” The candidates have called for U.S.-Iranian dialogue over Tehran’s nuclear program, but Clinton has ruled out meeting personally with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. "We've got to begin diplomatic engagement with Iran, and we want the region and the world to understand how serious we are about it," she said (Jeff Mason, Reuters, April 16). Back to top       U.S. Nuclear Research Needs Funding, Lab Chiefs Say U.S. nuclear stockpile reliability research is being hurt by federal budget cuts at three national laboratories, the heads of the facilities said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 6). “Science is being squeezed out” at the laboratories by a budget gap of several hundred million dollars, George Miller, director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, told the Washington Post. Miller also traveled to Capitol Hill to address the issue alongside Sandia National Laboratories Director Thomas Hunter and Los Alamos National Laboratory Director Michael Anastastio. Miller urged lawmakers to allow the Reliable Replacement Warhead program to proceed or possibly face “confidence eroding in the current [nuclear] stockpile” within several years (see GSN, March 11).  The Livermore and Los Alamos laboratories have each lost about 2,000 workers — including valued scientific personnel — over the last two years, the directors added (see GSN, April 16; Walter Pincus, Washington Post, April 17). Back to top

FBI Arrests Ricin Suspect The FBI arrested a down-on-his-luck man yesterday in Las Vegas, charging him with possession of a biological toxin.  Roger Bergendorff was taken into custody shortly after being released from the hospital where he had spent the last two months recovering from possible exposure to the lethal toxin ricin, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, March 18). Bergendorff, 57, faces up to 30 years in prison for the toxin accusation and two firearm counts.  A federal judge ordered him to remain in custody until a hearing early next month. Bergendorff drew attention in February when he was hospitalized after complaining of respiratory distress, a condition that deteriorated to a four-week coma.  His cousin subsequently visited Bergendorff’s hotel room and found some suspicious vials which were later determined to hold ricin.  A search by law enforcement authorities also yielded ricin-making materials and literature, AP reported. After awakening from the coma, Bergendorff discussed the situation with the FBI and admitted to having experimented with ricin since the late 1990s, according to a six-page prosecutor’s complaint released yesterday. “Bergendorff characterized the production of ricin as an ‘exotic idea,’” the complaint says. “Bergendorff admitted that there have been people who have made him mad over the years and he had thoughts about causing them harm to the point of making some plans,” says the complaint.  “However, he maintained that he never acted on those thoughts or plans” (Ken Ritter, Associated Press/ABCNews.com, April 17). Appearing in a wheelchair before a judge yesterday, Bergendorff denied any criminal intent. “I’m not a criminal.  I’m not a robber.  I’m not a thief.  I’m not a rapist.  I’m not a child molester. … It’s not in my blood,” he said. He has been “basically indigent,” said Bergendorff’s cousin Thomas Tholen, who housed Bergendorff in his suburban Salt Lake City home in 2005 (see GSN, April 3; Ashley Powers, Los Angeles Times, April 17). The ricin found in the hotel room was “crude” and consisted of 2.9 percent “active ricin,” according to the prosecutor’s complaint. “That’s not pure,” said Andrew Ternay, of the University of Denver’s Rocky Mountain Center for Homeland Defense.  “But it is deadly no matter. … It’s just that it would take more to kill someone” (Ritter, Associated Press). The FBI has concluded that Bergendorff was not part of a larger conspiracy, the New York Times reported. “Based on the results of our investigation, we don’t believe that the public was ever in danger,” said Las Vegas-based FBI agent Joseph Dickey.  “Nor do we believe that this was any terrorist plot” (Steve Friess, New York Times, April 17). Back to top       Terrorists Could Tap Pharmaceutical Toxins U.S. and international health officials are not adequately addressing the threat of terrorists obtaining or cultivating pharmaceutical agents and toxins for use in an attack, a nonproliferation think tank said last week (see GSN, Jan. 10, 2005). There are growing uses of pharmaceuticals that employ small amounts of bacteria or other agents that could be used in biological weapons, according to Brian Finlay of the Henry L. Stimson Center. “These products, their precursor materials, and the expertise to fabricate them are as interesting to potential bioterrorists as they are to health care providers,” the analysis says.  However, government regulations have not kept up with the market, “creating a greater susceptibility for misuse.” “Unaccustomed to the lens of national security, health regulatory agencies in the United States and around the globe have systematically failed to recognize the serious potential for the diversion and misuse of conotoxins, tetrodoxins, ricin and other agents of proliferation concern,” according to the analysis (see related GSN story, today). In one case, a British pharmaceutical firm is has applied for approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to market a product containing botulinum toxin, the report says.  The product is already available in Iran, where the approval process would have involved sharing data that the Iranian government could use in biological weapons development (Brian Finlay, Henry L. Stimson Center, April 10). Back to top

Scientists Question U.S. Missile Defense System Scientists yesterday expressed doubts about the capabilities of the U.S. missile defense system to provide protection against enemy threats, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, March 7). “The program offers no prospect of defending the United States from a real-world attack and undermines efforts to eliminate the real nuclear threats to the United States,” program critic Lisbeth Gronlund, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said in prepared testimony for a subcommittee of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. The system ultimately is intended to include land-, air- and sea-based assets around the United States and to involve cooperation with nations such as Israel and Japan.  The Bush administration has also been pressing to expand defenses into Europe (see GSN, April 15). The program is estimated to cost between $213 billion and $277 billion between this year and 2025, said National Security and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee Chairman John Tierney (D-Mass.).  Tierney has sought to increase scrutiny of the system under the Democrat-led House. “We need to all ask ourselves, whether you’re a conservative Republican or a liberal Democrat, are we wisely spending the taxpayer’s money here?” he said. The system already has some ability to bring down missiles fired by an enemy nation and progress continues, said Jeff Kueter, president of the George C. Marshall Institute. “Even in their current form, the elements of the U.S. missile defense system offer options heretofore unavailable,” he told lawmakers.  “With further research, development and testing, the accuracies and capabilities of these systems will only improve.” Other experts argued that there has not been realistic testing of the system’s capabilities against long-range missiles and that decoys or other missile countermeasures would likely prove effective against the U.S. technology (Desmond Butler, Associated Press/USA Today, April 16). “Missile defense is the most difficult development the Pentagon has ever attempted,” Philip Coyle, former weapons testing chief at the Defense Department, said at the hearing. Coyle said the missile threat against the United States has been exaggerated, “and if it were real the proposed missile defense systems couldn’t deal with it anyway,” Reuters reported. The developing Airborne Laser system, a weapon that would be deployed on a Boeing 747 jet, could be overcome easily, Coyle argued. “If the enemy paints their missiles with an ordinary white paint, a white paint that is 90 percent reflective to the laser, then 90 percent of the laser energy bounces off,” he said, citing information from NASA and other sources.  “To compensate for this, the Airborne Laser would need to be 10 times more powerful and would need an aircraft bigger than a Boeing 747.” The Missile Defense Agency refuted Coyle’s claim. “That the U.S. would spend more than [$]4 billion on a weapon system that could be defeated by a coat of paint might make a good sitcom but has no basis in fact,” spokesman Richard Lehner stated by e-mail. The agency has conducted five successful target intercepts “against the type of decoys we would expect from a country like North Korea or Iran,” Lehner said.  It believes it could deal with existing decoys and is continuing research on defeating countermeasures that might be developed in the future, he added (Jim Wolf, Reuters/Yahoo!News, April 16). Back to top       Japan Says Missile Defenses Not Aimed at Russia Japan said Monday that its missile defense collaboration with the United States is intended as a measure against North Korea rather than Russia, RIA Novosti reported (see GSN, Jan. 29). Moscow has expressed concern about the worldwide expansion of the U.S. missile defense system. "When Japan makes decisions, it always takes other countries' concerns and interests into account," Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura said during a meeting in Moscow with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.  "As to U.S. plans to deploy missile defense elements (in Japan), this is a measure that has been forced by Japan's close location to North Korea, which has conducted a nuclear weapon test." Lavrov said that Moscow accepts “Japan's explanation regarding the absence of any intention to use Japan's participation in missile defense deployment in the region together with the U.S. to the detriment of Russia's interests." "We believe the best way to monitor and, if necessary, neutralize missiles is to create a true security system uniting the U.S., European countries and all interested sides, including Japan," Lavrov said (RIA Novosti, April 14). Back to top

NRC Seeks Stricter Radioactive Source Reporting The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission announced last week that it has proposed expanding a national database of radioactive sources that could be used to manufacture radiological weapons (see GSN, July 12, 2007). If adopted, the measure would require a variety of industries to report on their production, use and disposal of all Category 3 and some Category 4 sources, materials which are not as dangerous as others but could nevertheless prove attractive to terrorists seeking to steal “dirty bomb” materials. The commission has estimated that 3,500 holders of the radioactive materials would be required to report on about 17,000 sources not currently covered by the National Source Tracking System. “The NRC considers Category 1 and 2 sources to be the most significant from a security perspective,” the commission said in an April 9 release.  “Expanding the NSTS will guard against the possibility that a small number of Category 3 [or] 4 radioactive sources could be collected to form a Category 2 amount of radioactive material.” The sources covered would “include fixed industrial gauges (level gauges, conveyor gauges, thickness gauges, blast furnace gauges, dredger gauges, and pipe gauges); well-logging devices; medium- and low-dose-range brachytherapy; and certain radiography devices,” the release says. A 75-day public comment period will begin once the proposed rule is published in the Federal Register (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission release, April 9). Back to top       Radioactive Material Recovered in Spain Authorities in Spain today recovered a suitcase containing radioactive material used for geological analysis, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 16). The suitcase marked “radioactive” was apparently stolen Tuesday from a vehicle near Madrid.  An area resident found it this morning in front of a secondary school and alerted police. A Madrid police spokesman said the suitcase was intact when recovered (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, April 17). Back to top

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