Western nuclear experts have been assessing Iranian centrifuges seen in photographs of Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility (Getty Images). IAEA Official Holds New Nuclear Talks With Iran The International Atomic Energy Agency’s safeguards chief met with Iranian officials yesterday for the second round of discussions in a week over allegations of Iranian nuclear weapon design research, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 28)...Full Story

NPT Meeting Opens; Nuclear Powers Defend Reductions The United States and Russia yesterday defended their progress toward nuclear disarmament on the opening day of a two-week international meeting in Geneva to discuss the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (see GSN, April 25)...Full Story

U.S.-Czech Missile Defense Agreement Delayed The United States and the Czech Republic are now looking to sign a missile defense radar deal in June rather than May as previously anticipated, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 25)...Full Story

	Tuesday, April 29, 2008

U.S., Canada Plan WMD Response Drill U.S. Northern Command and the North American Aerospace Defense Command plan to respond to a simulated WMD terrorist attack next month as part of a larger emergency exercise (see GSN, May 16, 2006). National Exercise 2-08 is scheduled from May 1 to 8.  It is expected to simulate a number of terrorist strikes in Washington state, the unintentional release of a chemical agent in Oregon, a large East Coast hurricane that hits the Washington, D.C. region, and “aerospace events throughout North America,” Northern Command announced yesterday in a press release. Along with NORAD and Northern Command, participants are set to include the U.S. Homeland Security Department, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Transportation Command and the National Guard.  The exercise will provide training in hurricane preparedness and in military coordination with civilian agencies following a WMD incident, the release states. Canada, which partners with the United States to operate NORAD, is scheduled to conduct its Staunch Maple exercise concurrently with National Exercise 2-08 (U.S. Northern Command release, April 28). Back to top

IAEA Official Holds New Nuclear Talks With Iran The International Atomic Energy Agency’s safeguards chief met with Iranian officials yesterday for the second round of discussions in a week over allegations of Iranian nuclear weapon design research, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 28). The United States and other Western nations have expressed concern that Iran is developing nuclear capabilities that could be used for military purposes, but Tehran insists its nuclear program is exclusively civilian in nature. Olli Heinonen arrived in Tehran early yesterday and was expected to travel back to Vienna last night.  However, two IAEA staffers were scheduled to stay in Iran to continue the nuclear talks, one source said.  The meetings were expected to conclude after three days, Iranian state media quoted Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Tehran’s envoy to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, as saying (Agence France-Presse/Google News, April 28). Meanwhile, nuclear analysts are collecting new information about Iran’s uranium enrichment program from 48 photos taken during Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s April 8 tour of the Natanz enrichment site, the New York Times reported today, triggered by an extensive discussion on ArmsControlWork.com. Images of Iran’s new IR-2 centrifuges had not previously been made public.  Experts are using the pictures in an effort to assess the efficiency and technical readiness of the centrifuge, an experimental next-generation machine designed to enrich uranium faster than the Pakistani P-1 model now in use at Natanz.  The faster speed could enable Iran to generate a key nuclear weapon ingredient more quickly than current centrifuges if it can deploy the machine in large numbers. “I don't see anything to suggest this is propaganda,” said Houston Wood III, a University of Virginia centrifuge expert.  “They seem to be working on an advanced machine.” Tehran established its uranium enrichment program in 1985, after receiving a blueprint for the P-1 centrifuge from then-top Pakistani nuclear scientist and proliferator Abdul Qadeer Khan, according to IAEA officials.  Tehran has placed 3,000 P-1 machines at Natanz and plans to deploy 6,000 more of the older machines (see GSN, April 8). The IR-2 centrifuge is a modified version of Pakistan’s advanced PR-2 machine.  Standing at about 3 feet tall, it is less than half the height of the P-1 centrifuge, but it can enrich uranium twice as fast in experimental settings, according to analysts. “That's a lot,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.  “It would produce about four times the enrichment.” Considering other aspects of the photographs, analysts noted the seemingly incongruous presence of Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar at the Natanz tour, given that Iran’s military is not officially involved in its nuclear work (William Broad, New York Times, April 29). Back to top       NPT Meeting Opens; Nuclear Powers Defend Reductions The United States and Russia yesterday defended their progress toward nuclear disarmament on the opening day of a two-week international meeting in Geneva to discuss the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (see GSN, April 25). Many non-nuclear nations have criticized the two Cold War rivals for acting too slowly in meeting their treaty commitments to completely disband their nuclear arsenals.  The treaty, signed 40 years ago, calls on the five nuclear powers of that era to “pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.” U.S. delegation leader Christopher Ford yesterday addressed the notion that the United States was dawdling. Some countries have said that nuclear-armed nations have “backtracked on their commitment to the ultimate goal of nuclear disarmament, and that they were in violation of their obligations,” Ford said in his statement to the meeting.  “With respect to United States nuclear posture and policy, any such beliefs are patently false.” The United States today has fewer than 3,000 operationally deployed strategic warheads, Ford said, and the rate of dismantling retired warheads has accelerated. In addition, “We continue to:  reduce the number of delivery systems (see GSN, Sept. 20, 2005); eliminate entire classes of weapons such as intermediate-range missiles and nuclear artillery shells; remove many hundreds of tons of fissile material from our weapons programs (see GSN, Sept. 19, 2007); maintain our moratorium on underground nuclear testing; help peacefully dispose of hundreds of tons of fissile material from former Soviet nuclear weapons (see GSN, Feb. 20); fulfill our promises to slash nonstrategic nuclear forces; build a new plant to convert large quantities of plutonium from former U.S. nuclear weapons into nuclear reactor fuel (see GSN, April 4); refrain from producing new uranium or plutonium for nuclear weapons; and work to bring about the complete, global prohibition of fissile material production for use in nuclear weapons,” he said  (see GSN, Feb. 12).  Russian delegate Anatoly Antonov also emphasized his nation’s nuclear reductions — reporting that Russia had 4,200 nuclear warheads deployed on fewer than 900 strategic delivery vehicles — but said more time was needed to “break the stalemate in this field.” “It should be clear to everyone that complete elimination of nuclear arms can only be achieved through a gradual, phased movement,” he said in his statement. Antonov reaffirmed Russia’s desire to negotiate “a legally binding arrangement” to succeed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which is set to expire late next year. Both countries expressed concern about Iran’s nuclear ambitions.  Antonov argued that an internationally controlled nuclear fuel supply could allay Tehran’s desire to produce its own nuclear fuel, a technology that U.S. officials have said would be used to produce nuclear weapon materials.  Ford took a more aggressive stance on Iran, saying “the world has become appropriately alarmed about Iran’s rush to produce fissile materials for reactors it does not have in order to prevent an ‘energy crisis’ it does not face.” He called on treaty members to develop “swift and effective responses to [NPT] violations. … It is clear that we need to develop more effective approaches so that the delay between detection and reaction is minimized, the cost to the violator is increased, and the anticipated benefits of noncompliance to the violator are reduced” (Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire, April 29). Back to top       Syrian Reactor Could Have Fueled 2 Bombs, U.S. Says An alleged Syrian nuclear reactor destroyed by Israel in September would have needed only one year of operations to produce enough plutonium for one to two nuclear weapons, CIA chief Michael Hayden said yesterday (see GSN, April 28). U.S. administration and intelligence officials last week presented lawmakers with evidence that Syria had enlisted North Korean assistance to construct a nuclear reactor, the Associated Press reported.  The facility could have gone operational in a matter of weeks or months had it not been the target of the Israeli air strike, officials said. “In the course of a year after they got full up they would have produced enough plutonium for one or two weapons,” Hayden said following a speech at Georgetown University in Washington. The Bush administration has faced criticism for the timing of the intelligence release, which occurred as U.S. officials sought to push forward the faltering North Korean denuclearization process (see related GSN story, today). However, Hayden said that revealing U.S. knowledge of the facility to the International Atomic Energy Agency at an earlier date would have compromised sources providing the intelligence. “We've made it clear we did not have complete control over the totality of the information because obviously it was the result of a team effort,” Hayden said.  “One has to respect the origin of the information in terms of how it is used.” According to a high-level U.S. official who spoke last week, Washington suppressed information on the Syrian facility after it was attacked due to concerns that revealing the intelligence might have provoked Damascus to retaliate against Israel (Pamela Hess, Associated Press/Google News, April 28). Back to top       U.S., South Korea Discuss Nuclear Talks The top negotiators from South Korea and the United States met yesterday in Washington to consider the “next steps” in the nuclear disarmament of North Korea, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 28). U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill described his meeting with South Korean envoy Kim Sook as “good.” The session followed a trip to North Korea last week by a team of U.S. experts and the Bush administration’s release of intelligence tying Pyongyang to Syria’s alleged attempts to build a nuclear reactor (see related GSN story, today). “We began to discuss the … trip and we talked about the next steps in the process, we talked about various aspects of the declaration and what we would expect to see as we continue this process,” Hill said. North Korea agreed to provide a full accounting of its nuclear programs as part of a 2007 deal under which it would be rewarded for giving up its nuclear sector.  However, the agreement has faltered this year amid U.S. allegations that Pyongyang has been unwilling to come clean about its atomic programs.  A recent compromise plan would reportedly require North Korea to provide details of its plutonium work — which is believed to have provided enough material for several nuclear weapons — but only to “acknowledge” U.S. suspicions regarding uranium enrichment activities and nuclear support for Syria. “We are putting together a lot of elements and for this declaration phase, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and we are working very hard to assemble all the elements, and that is why we are having these consultations that are key for us,” Hill said (Agence France-Presse/ChannelNewsAsia.com, April 29). North Korea has demanded to be removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism as part of the denuclearization process. “I reiterated the position that [U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza] Rice has taken on many occasions, that as the North Koreans complete all of their requirements, all of their obligations, we will certainly complete all of ours,” Hill said following his meeting with Kim. The declaration is part of the second phase of denuclearization, which would be followed by the third phase involving dismantlement of North Korea’s atomic infrastructure (Kyodo News, April 28). Meanwhile, a senior Republican lawmaker on Sunday continued to question the timing of the release of the Syria intelligence, the Los Angeles Times reported. “The administration has handled this very badly,” Representative Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.) said on CNN’s “Late Edition.” “I think the administration believes it will help them to get a deal with North Korea,” he said. However, “the timing of it, what information they released, what information they did not release and who they released it to, is going to make in more difficult for them to reach an agreement that will be supported by Congress and supported by the American people,” Hoekstra added (Nicole Gaouette, Los Angeles Times, April 28). Back to top

“Chemical Ali” on Trial Again The man known as “Chemical Ali” was scheduled to go on trial today in Iraq with six other former Hussein regime officials for their alleged role in the 1992 executions of 42 Baghdad merchants, USA Today reported (see GSN, April 23). Ali Hassan al-Majid has already been sentenced to death for the mass killing of Iraqi Kurds in the 1980s, which included chemical weapons attacks that earned al-Majid his nickname.  No date has been announced for his execution.  The defendants in this case, including former deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz, are charged with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. Al-Majid is also being tried with 14 co-defendants for the tens of thousands of deaths that occurred when the Hussein regime crushed a 1991 revolt by Shiite Muslims (Andrea Stone, USA Today, April 29). An Iraqi official said that diabetes and high blood pressure would prevent al-Majid from attending the latest trial, the Associated Press reported today.  Al-Majid’s defense attorneys have argued that his health is too poor for him to stand trial (Sameer Yacoub, Associated Press/Google News, April 29). Iraq is likely to conduct at least three additional trials involving roughly 100 former regime officials over the next three years, according to Michael Scharf, a Case Western Reserve University law professor who provided training for tribunal prosecutors and judges. Former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was executed in December 2006 (Stone, USA Today). Back to top       Progress Reported in CW Disposal Across U.S. The Anniston Army Depot in Alabama has destroyed 43 percent of its stockpile of chemical warfare agents and 46 percent of the munitions that held the lethal materials, the U.S. Army announced yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 25). Between April 21 and yesterday, the Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility eliminated 4,671 155 mm artillery shells that had contained VX nerve agent.  It also incinerated 2,784 gallons of VX. The facility since the current project began June 2007 has destroyed 128,959 of the projectiles and 79,613 gallons of VX. The depot has to date eliminated its full stockpile of weapons carrying the nerve agent sarin, along with 75 percent of VX weapons and 64.5 percent of VX.  Disposal of mustard agent has not begun (Anniston Army Depot release, April 28). The Umatilla Chemical Depot in Oregon reported Thursday that it had destroyed nearly 33 percent of its stockpile of chemical warfare agents since beginning operations in 2004.  More than 1,224 tons of materials have been burned, along with 181,000 weapons and bulk containers (Umatilla Chemical Depot release, April 24). As of April 13, the Deseret Chemical Depot in Utah had destroyed nearly 36 percent of its mustard agent stockpile.  The site had incinerated 2,271 tons of the material and 34,243 155 mm projectiles (Deseret Chemical Depot release, April 17). The Newport Chemical Depot in Indiana by April 22 had chemically neutralized 88 percent — 264,588 gallons — of its holdings of mustard agent stored in bulk containers.  The facility stores no munitions (Newport Chemical Depot release, April 22). The Pine Bluff Arsenal in Arkansas had finished off 15 percent of its chemical agents by April 21, including more than 110,000 rockets that had carried VX and sarin (Pine Bluff Arsenal release, April 21). Disposal operations are completed at former chemical weapons storage sites in Maryland and on the Johnston Atoll (see GSN, June 26, 2007).  Destruction facilities are not yet built at the final two U.S. storage sites in Colorado and Kentucky (see GSN, Feb. 20). The Chemical Weapons Convention gives the United States until April 2012 to eliminate its stockpile of banned warfare materials (see GSN, April 25).  U.S. officials have indicated that disposal operations could continue into 2023. Back to top

U.S.-Czech Missile Defense Agreement Delayed The United States and the Czech Republic are now looking to sign a missile defense radar deal in June rather than May as previously anticipated, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 25). “We have tried for May 5, but we did not succeed,” Czech Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zuzana Opletalova said yesterday.  She did not elaborate. Prague and Washington have come to a tentative agreement on deploying a U.S. early warning radar in the Czech Republic as part of the Bush administration’s missile defense program for Europe.  The two nations are still negotiating a related treaty addressing taxes and the legal standing of U.S. military personnel at the installation.  Czech lawmakers must sign off on both pacts. The system would also incorporate missile interceptors in Poland (see GSN, March 26).  It has faced strong opposition from Russia (see GSN, April 21). U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice did not have time to travel to the Czech Republic for a signing next month, said spokesman Sean McCormack.  “She will be signing an agreement, there’s no substantive disagreement, it’s just about working out the timing,” he said. Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek indicated that both treaties could be signed in June, AP reported. Meanwhile, activists with the environmental organization Greenpeace yesterday occupied the military area expected to house the radar (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, April 28). “We don’t want to be targets,” they declared in a banner. Roughly two-thirds of Czech residents oppose deployment of the U.S. radar in their nation, according to opinion polls. “Our protesters have established a base camp and they have also climbed trees and installed platforms,” said Greenpeace spokeswoman Lenka Borakova.  “We intend to say here as long as possible, until they can dislodge us” (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 28). Back to top       Turkey Considers First Missile Defense System Turkey is considering systems from China, Israel, Russia and the United States as it looks to procure its first ballistic missile defenses, the Turkish Daily News reported today (see GSN, April 26, 2007). Turkey could pay more than $1 billion for no less than four missile interceptor firing units, radar systems and associated technology.  While Ankara generally has strong diplomatic relations with nearby nations that possess ground-to-ground missiles, there are worries about Iran’s capabilities (see GSN, Jan. 17). The United States has encouraged Turkey to purchase the Patriot Advanced Capability 3 system.  To date, the United States has sold Patriot variants to nine countries and the system is a front-runner for the Turkish deal. Its main competitors are Russia’s S-300 system, which has been sold to six nations, and its new S-400 system (see GSN, April 14).  However, there are questions about the S-400’s interoperability with NATO weapons technology. The seeming also-rans are Israel’s Arrow 2 missile defense system, which it developed in cooperation with the United States (see GSN, April 21), and an unidentified Chinese model. After completing the purchase, Turkey plans to buy additional missile defenses that would be produced with significant support from local contractors (Umit Enginsoy, Turkish Daily News, April 29). Back to top

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