Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin agreed Saturday to a strategic framework for the United States and Russia to combat terrorism and WMD proliferation (Natalia Kolesnikova/Getty Images) Bush, Putin Agree on Wide-Ranging Strategic Framework The United States and Russia agreed to a “Strategic Framework Declaration” Saturday, outlining the cooperative security goals of the two former Cold War rivals (see GSN, April 2). “We intend to cooperate as partners to promote security, and to jointly counter the threats to peace we face, including international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,” says the declaration, approved by presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin at what was probably their final meeting as national leaders in Sochi, Russia.  Putin’s successor, Dmitri Medvedev, is set to take office May 7, and Bush has roughly 10 months remaining in his term. The agreement reflected the Bush administration’s distaste for the style of arms control that dominated U.S.-Soviet Cold War relations...Full Story

Al-Qaeda Seeks Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Warns A high-level U.S. Homeland Security Department official warned U.S. lawmakers Friday that al-Qaeda continues to seek nuclear weapons to use in an attack and could set off a bomb with a relatively small number of collaborators, Asian News International reported (see GSN, April 2)...Full Story

Uncertainty Remains Over New Iranian Centrifuges A new round of uranium enrichment centrifuges recently placed at Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility do not include a next-generation model developed by Tehran, the Associated Press reported Friday (see GSN, April 4)...Full Story

	Monday, April 7, 2008

Israel Seeks to Ease Concerns Over WMD Drill Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert yesterday attempted to assuage Syrian and Lebanese concerns that Israel could use a nationwide WMD attack exercise it is conducting this week as a cover for a plot against the neighboring states, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, March 17). Israeli leaders, emergency responders and civilians are expected to respond to mock chemical and biological weapon strikes during the five-day-long drill, which began yesterday, according to the Israeli army. Meanwhile, Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora stepped up the readiness of his country’s military last week and asked U.N. peacekeeping troops along its border with Israel to be vigilant against the possible launch of “operations capable of increasing tension.”  Israeli media also reported rising tensions along Israel’s northern border with Syria. "The goal of the exercise is to check the authorities' ability to carry out their duties in times of emergency and for preparing the home front for different scenarios," Olmert told a weekly cabinet meeting. "There is nothing else hidden behind it. All the reports on tension in the north can be moderated and cooled down. We have no secret plans" behind the drill, he said (Ron Bousso, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 6). Back to top

Bush, Putin Agree on Wide-Ranging Strategic Framework The United States and Russia agreed to a “Strategic Framework Declaration” Saturday, outlining the cooperative security goals of the two former Cold War rivals (see GSN, April 2). “We intend to cooperate as partners to promote security, and to jointly counter the threats to peace we face, including international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,” says the declaration, approved by presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin at what was probably their final meeting as national leaders in Sochi, Russia.  Putin’s successor, Dmitri Medvedev, is set to take office May 7, and Bush has roughly 10 months remaining in his term. The agreement reflected the Bush administration’s distaste for the style of arms control that dominated U.S.-Soviet Cold War relations. “We acknowledge that today's security environment is fundamentally different than during the Cold War,” the declaration says.  “We must move beyond past strategic principles, which focused on the prospect of mutual annihilation, and focus on the very real dangers that confront both our nations. These include especially the threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery.” The two leaders agreed to continue strategic nuclear weapon reductions “to the lowest possible level,” but did not reach a specific plan to lock in the cuts made by the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which is set to expire late next year (see GSN, Feb. 4). “We will continue development of a legally binding post-START arrangement,” the declaration says (Greg Webb, GSN, April 7). That goal faces substantial hurdles, however, as the two nations disagree over the scope of any successor agreement, RIA Novosti reported Saturday.  In particular, Russia is seeking to set limits on the number of warheads held in storage, while the Bush administration has focused on capping the number of deployed warheads, according to one Putin aide. “We have never agreed with such an approach,” said Sergei Prikhodko.  “Therefore, for an agreement to be reached, the U.S. side needs to make a real change (in its position).  We have yet to see such a change” (RIA Novosti, April 5). Similar to its START treatment, the statement offers nonspecific assurances to address concerns over the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, from which Russia has threatened to withdraw in response to U.S. plans to deploy missile defense bases in Poland and the Czech Republic (see GSN, Dec. 5, 2007). “We will engage in a high-level dialogue to analyze current and future intermediate-range and shorter-range ballistic and cruise missile threats and inventory options for dealing with them,” says the declaration. The missile defense issue dominated the headlines, and the statement reflects continuing Russian opposition to the U.S. plan, but it does include some conciliatory language in response to Washington’s efforts to assure Russia that the systems would not threaten Russia’s strategic forces. “The Russian side has made clear that it does not agree with the decision to establish sites in Poland and the Czech Republic and reiterated its proposed alternative,” the statement says.  “Yet, it appreciates the measures that the U.S. has proposed and declared that if agreed and implemented such measures will be important and useful in assuaging Russian concerns” (see related GSN story, today). The agreement also stresses both nations’ interest in promoting nuclear energy as a way to produce “clean” electricity while simultaneously enhancing nuclear weapon nonproliferation goals (see GSN, Feb. 26). “We must prevent such weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists and those who support them. To this end, our two countries will provide global leadership on a wide range of cooperative efforts that will advance our common nonproliferation goals,” the declaration says.  “These will include new approaches focused on environmentally-friendly technologies that will support economic growth, promote the expansion of nuclear energy, and create a viable alternative to the spread of sensitive nuclear fuel cycle technologies.” The agreement praises initiatives to create a reliable supply of nuclear fuel to the developing world as way to curb the number of uranium and plutonium facilities that could also be used in weapons programs (see GSN, April 4; Webb, GSN). Back to top       Al-Qaeda Seeks Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Warns A high-level U.S. Homeland Security Department official warned U.S. lawmakers Friday that al-Qaeda continues to seek nuclear weapons to use in an attack and could set off a bomb with a relatively small number of collaborators, Asian News International reported (see GSN, April 2). “Our post-9/11 successes against the Taliban in Afghanistan yielded volumes of information that completely changed our view of al-Qaeda's nuclear program.  We learned that al-Qaeda wants a weapon to use, not a weapon to sustain and build a stockpile,” Homeland Security Undersecretary Charles Allen told the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. “The 9/11 plot was operationally very straightforward. It had a very small footprint, was highly compartmented. Al-Qaeda's nuclear effort would be just as compartmented and probably would not require the involvement of more than a small number of operatives,” he said. Allen said the production of nuclear weapons material is the main “choke point” to prevent al-Qaeda from acquiring a nuclear weapon. “A state has the time and resources to build a large infrastructure required to make nuclear material.  A terrorist group needs only to steal or buy it.  A terrorist group does not need this kind of surety and consistency that a state desires. A terrorist group needs only to produce a nuclear yield once to change history,” he said (Asian News International/Daily India, April 5). At the same hearing, a senior Energy Department intelligence official called for greater focus on the security of Indian nuclear weapons assets, the Press Trust of India reported. “The problem of India in this regard is the intelligence community would … expand this from what could be a very simplistic discussion of a problem in the former Soviet Union and Pakistan to ensure that every country, whether it be India, United States, other country, could be potentially part of this small network of countries where terrorists can obtain material or expertise,” said Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, head of the department’s Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence. “So my comment would be that certainly India is in the sphere of concern, as any country that has nuclear power and nuclear weapons,” he said (Sridhar Krishnaswami, Press Trust of India/Yahoo!News, April 5). Back to top       Uncertainty Remains Over New Iranian Centrifuges A new round of uranium enrichment centrifuges recently placed at Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility do not include a next-generation model developed by Tehran, the Associated Press reported Friday (see GSN, April 4). The United States and other Western nations suspect Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon ingredient through its enrichment program, but Iranian officials have insisted their efforts are aimed only at producing fuel for nuclear power plants. Iran has recently installed some next-generation, higher-speed centrifuges, but the machines do not include the proprietary IR-2 centrifuge, according to a high-level diplomat familiar with an investigation into Iran’s nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency (see GSN, Feb. 25). The official added it remains uncertain whether the advanced centrifuges were placed at the Natanz site’s underground enrichment plant or its above-ground experimental facility.  Another diplomat with knowledge of the program said Iran has begun connecting the centrifuges in a network or “cascade,” but the machines remain in the experimental division and are not functioning. “Something new is definitely going on,” but conflicting information makes it difficult to assess the progress of Iran’s nuclear work, said nuclear expert David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security (George Jahn, Associated Press I/San Diego Union-Tribune, April 4). Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Saturday reaffirmed the Bush administration’s desire to solve the Iranian nuclear standoff peacefully during a meeting with Omani Sultan Qaboos bin Said, Reuters reported. Gates told the leader that “although we keep all options open with regards to Iran, we remain committed to a diplomatic solution," according to a high-level Pentagon official. Oman, a U.S. ally in the Middle East, has opposed the use of economic sanctions to pressure Iran to halt its disputed nuclear activities (Reuters, April 5). Iran plans to announce new nuclear accomplishments tomorrow, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini invited reporters to attend a “National Day of Nuclear Achievement” marking one year since Iran announced obtaining an industrial-level uranium enrichment capacity (see GSN, April 9, 2007; Deutsche Presse-Agentur/Khaleej Times, April 4). Back to top       U.S., North Korea Lower Sights for Nuclear Talks U.S. and North Korean officials have played down prospects for a breakthrough in bilateral talks set for tomorrow that are intended to resolve the latest impasse in the North Korean nuclear crisis, news agencies reported recently (see GSN, April 4). U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill is set to meet his North Korean counterpart Kim Kye Gwan tomorrow in Singapore to discuss the stalled North Korean denuclearization agreement.  The United States has complained that Pyongyang has not declared the full scope of its nuclear activities, as required by the 2006 agreement, and North Korea has argued that Washington has been slow to meet its obligations, including dropping North Korea from a list of nations identified as supporting terrorists. News reports last week hinted that a breakthrough could be near, but officials quickly expressed less optimism. Hill would probably not “be coming home with a declaration in his briefcase,” U.S. State Department spokesman Tom Casey said Friday.  “Certainly we hope to make continued progress on it, but I am not led to believe that there is any reason to suspect that this is a decisive point in these discussions” (Anne Gearan, Associated Press/London Guardian, April 4). Similarly, North Korean envoy Kim today poured cold water on the optimism created by last week’s reports. “I do not necessarily see it that way,” he told reporters in Singapore.  “That is because we do not yet completely understand the U.S. position.” “[The] declaration is not the important problem,” he added.  “There are other, bigger problems” (Kyodo News, April 7). Back to top       Air Force Warned of Nuclear Inventory Risks A U.S. Air Force audit warned of potential mishaps resulting from poor record-keeping at Hill Air Force Base in Utah one year after electronic nuclear missile components stored at the site were mistakenly transferred to Taiwan, the Deseret Morning News reported yesterday (see GSN, March 28). Air Force Audit Agency inspectors examined the entries of 21 items in base storage in the facility’s electronic inventory system, and found that the 20 of the 21 sampled assets were not properly accounted for in the system, the agency said in its May 2007 report. At the time of the audit, the contractor for the site only conducted inventory checks for “high-dollar value end items with frequent movement,” and contracts with the firms had allowed them to exclude obsolete holdings from the checks, the report says. Noting that the sampled items included aging Minuteman and Peacekeeper ICBM parts that remained classified, the auditors called for the base and its contractor to carry out “a current and complete physical inventory of government-owned material and reconcile the inventory,” and then to conduct yearly follow-up checks.  The head of the 526th ICBM Systems Wing accepted the auditors’ suggestions and vowed to order an inventory, the report says, but future checks did not reveal that missile components that had been sent to Taiwan in 2006.  The error was only revealed last month (Davidson/Fidel, Deseret Morning News, April 6). Back to top

Pfirter Urges Treaty Holdouts to Act on CW Ban Several nations must delink their larger security concerns from their reluctance to join the Chemical Weapons Convention, the multilateral treaty that bans the deadly weapons in all but 12 countries, the pact’s top official said Friday (see GSN, April 3). North Korea and some Middle Eastern nations are among the dozen holdouts, some of which of linked their treaty participation to resolving regional security issues. “These weapons will not make a strategic difference in the Middle East,” said Rogelio Pfirter, head to the treaty’s implementing organization.  “These are just weapons of terror for civilians.” Pfirter said Iraq and Lebanon were close to acceding to the treaty, with each having finished some key administrative and constitutional steps.  Egypt, Israel and Syria, however, were farther away, according to the Associated Press. Although the three have cited regional concerns as an obstacle to joining the treaty, they should change those policies, Pfirter said. “Common sense indicates that these issues should be addressed one by one,” he said.  “They are totally separate issues.” As for North Korea, talks with treaty officials have been “nonexistent,” Pfirter said (Arthur Max, Associated Press/PR-Inside.com, April 4). Back to top       Russia to Resume Destroying CW at Maradykovsky Russia’s Maradykovsky facility is expected to resume chemical weapons destruction operations after receiving a formal go-ahead next week, Interfax reported Friday (see GSN, Jan. 25). Russian officials have inspected the site’s incinerators and plan next Monday to sign off on their readiness to continue work, said Mikhail Manin, a regional government official. Personnel at the facility are expected to initially target the site’s sarin and zoman nerve agents, followed by its stores of mustard agent and lewisite. More than 6,900 tons of chemical weapons agents were stored at the Maradykovsky facility before destruction operations began.  To date, more than 21,000 VX-loaded bombs and warheads have been eliminated at the site (Interfax, April 4). Back to top       U.S. Sarin Disposal Effort Slips The U.S. Defense Department has fallen behind in completing a timetable to destroy 157 gallons of sarin nerve agent at the Blue Grass Army Depot in Kentucky, the Lexington Herald-Leader reported Friday (see GSN, March 25). A planned 80-day, $1.7 million disposal effort was set to begin last month, but the Assembled Chemical Weapons Alternatives program has not yet filed a required request to begin the project with the Kentucky Environmental Protection Department.  Kevin Flamm, head of the program, said a short-term request would be submitted this week. "It is taking a little bit longer than I would have liked," Flamm said, adding that he hopes to finish the project next month as scheduled although the plan to begin in March might have been “overly optimistic.” Blue Grass officials expect to receive state approval to drain and neutralize the sarin and then remove it from the site, said Dick Sloan, spokesman for the depot’s chemical weapons disposal program Personnel in Maryland have begun training for the project — dubbed Operation Swift Solution — and officials are preparing guidelines for eliminating the deadly nerve agent, Flamm said (Ashlee Clark/Lexington Herald-Leader I, April 4). Forklifts are expected to transfer the three deteriorating bulk storage containers holding the sarin into airtight boxes, which will be transported to the site of a 20-gallon neutralization reactor (Lexington Herald-Leader II/RealCities, April 4). Back to top

U.S., Czech Republic Agree on Missile Defense Radar Senior U.S. and Czech officials reached agreement Thursday on the terms of a U.S. plan to deploy a missile defense radar in the Czech Republic, the International Herald Tribune reported Friday (see GSN, April 2). U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schewarzenberg sealed the deal Thursday, but have not yet signed it. The agreement is “an important step in our efforts to protect our nations and our NATO allies from the growing threat posed by the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction,” said a joint statement. The U.S. plans calls for installing the radar station in the Czech Republic and a set of missile interceptors in neighboring Poland.  U.S. officials have said the system would defend against a future missile threat from Iran, but Russian leaders have complained bitterly about the plan. “We still do not have a proper explanation of this project,” said Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Russian Duma’s international affairs committee.  “It is not about the number of interceptors.  It is about undermining mutual confidence and trust” (Judy Dempsey, International Herald Tribune, April 3). U.S. and Russian presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin met Saturday in Russia to discuss the issue, but Putin still expressed concern over the project. “We discussed the issue of missile defense. Both sides expressed their interest in creating a system for responding to potential missile threats in which Russia and the United States and Europe will participate as equal partners,” says a joint statement released by the presidents.  “The Russian side has made clear that it does not agree with the decision to establish sites in Poland and the Czech Republic and reiterated its proposed alternative. Yet, it appreciates the measures that the U.S. has proposed and declared that if agreed and implemented such measures will be important and useful in assuaging Russian concerns” (White House release, April 6). While the Czech agreement appears to be complete, a corresponding deal with Poland remains distant, the Tribune reported. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, elected last year, has demanded much more from the United States than did his predecessor or the Czech Republic, according to the Tribune. While Czech leaders asked that Czech firms contribute the radar’s development and installation, Polish officials have demanded security guarantees, including improvements to the nation’s air-defense systems, and a larger U.S. role in defending the interceptor installation, which some Russian officials have vowed to target with nuclear weapons. “We are not close to a final agreement,” said Polish Defense Minister Bogdan Klich.  “It is difficult to predict the conclusion of talks with the Americans” (Dempsey, International Herald Tribune, April 3). Back to top

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