U.S. nuclear negotiator Sung Kim yesterday called North Korean nuclear documents provided to the U.S. “an important first step” in the declaration of the regime’s nuclear program (Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images). Estimate of North Korean Plutonium Stockpile Boosted The United States has boosted its estimate of the amount of weapon-usable plutonium believed to be held by North Korea, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, May 13). Pyongyang has claimed that its Yongbyon nuclear reactor has produced roughly 30 kilograms of plutonium.  U.S. officials have always considered that a low figure; intelligence analysts are now set to put the amount at 35 to 40 or 50 to 60 kilograms...Full Story

Bush Sends U.S.-Russian Nuclear Deal to Congress U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday submitted to Congress a proposed civilian nuclear trade deal with Russia that is already facing considerable opposition from lawmakers, Environment & Energy News reported (see GSN, May 7)...Full Story

Cargo-Scanning Program Unfeasible, Official Says A pilot program to scan U.S.-bound cargo containers for nuclear weapons at foreign ports has encountered budgetary, diplomatic and logistical obstacles that could prevent the United States from scanning all inbound cargo by 2012, the Newark Star-Ledger reported yesterday...Full Story

	Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Bush Says He Was Not Misled on Iraqi WMD U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that he did not believe he had been intentionally misled regarding prewar Iraq’s WMD capabilities, the Los Angeles Times reported. “You know, ‘mislead’ is a strong word; it almost connotes some kind of intentional — I don’t think so. … Intelligence communities all across the world shared the same assessment.  And so I was disappointed to see how flawed our intelligence was,” Bush said during an interview with Politico.com. The Bush administration made Iraq’s suspected possession of weapons of mass destruction a pillar of its case for the March 2003 invasion.  No WMD stockpiles or active programs were found after the war began. “Do I think somebody lied to me?  No, I don’t,” Bush said, adding he believes that “they analyzed the situation and came up with the wrong conclusion.” U.S. lawmakers received the same information, Bush said, leading Congress to support the disarmament of Iraq by force. “And, of course, the political heat gets on, and they start to run and try to hide from their votes,” he said (James Gerstenzang, Los Angeles Times, May 14). The president also expressed concern that a Democratic president might withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq too soon, the Associated Press reported.  The Republican candidate, Senator John McCain (Ariz.) has backed keeping troops in Iraq, while the senators seeking the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), have expressed support for withdrawal. Bush said his “doomsday scenario of course is that extremists throughout the Middle East would be emboldened, which would eventually lead to another attack on the United States” (Associated Press/Google News, May 14). Back to top

Estimate of North Korean Plutonium Stockpile Boosted The United States has boosted its estimate of the amount of weapon-usable plutonium believed to be held by North Korea, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, May 13). Pyongyang has claimed that its Yongbyon nuclear reactor has produced roughly 30 kilograms of plutonium.  U.S. officials have always considered that a low figure; intelligence analysts are now set to put the amount at 35 to 40 or 50 to 60 kilograms. Sources did not say how much of an increase that would be from previous estimates.  The nongovernmental Institute for Science and International Security in 2006 said it believed that North Korea had collected between 20 and 53 kilograms from the reactor. “It will be a little more than past estimates,” said one high-level U.S. official.  “It solidifies it and presents a more solid assessment.” A nuclear weapon requires between four and six kilograms of plutonium, so the difference between Pyongyang and Washington’s figures could be enough for at least one bomb.  North Korea conducted a nuclear test in October 2006. U.S. officials plan to compare the new estimate against documents provided by North Korea on the operations of the reactor at Yongbyon, the Post reported. Sung Kim, Korean affairs chief at the State Department told reporters yesterday that the more than 18,000 pages collected last week “are an important first step in terms of verifying North Korea’s declaration.  Verification of the declaration required by a 2007 denuclearization agreement would involve “access to their facilities, sampling, interviews with personnel involved in their programs.” Twelve or more government experts are expected to spend weeks examining the documents (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, May 14). “It looks like all the production records” going back to 1986, one U.S. official told the Associated Press before Kim’s briefing.  “The initial assessment is that it looks pretty good, that they have pretty much given us what they said they were going to give us” (Matthew Lee, Associated Press I/Yahoo!News, May 13). The nuclear declaration is a key component of the second phase of the deal under which North Korea would reap economic, diplomatic and security benefits from giving up its nuclear program.  It has also proven a major stumbling block to progress this year after Washington said Pyongyang missed the Dec. 31 deadline to provide a full accounting of its atomic activities.  Under an April compromise, North Korea is reportedly expected to provide details of its plutonium operations while only acknowledging U.S. suspicions regarding uranium enrichment and nuclear proliferation efforts. The seeming compromise has faced strong skepticism from Republican lawmakers.  Kim yesterday sought to show that the Bush administration was not going to go easy on the regime in North Korea, AP reported. “We do expect the declaration package to address all of our concerns including any activities they might have had with uranium enrichment and any sort of cooperation with foreign countries,” he said.  North Korea has been tied to Syria’s efforts to build an alleged nuclear reactor that was destroyed by Israel in September. Kim said his team conducted “very detailed, very substantive discussions” on the declaration during the trip last week to Pyongyang (Anne Gearan, Associated Press II/StarTribune.com, May 13). The South Korean Foreign Ministry said today that the North Korean declaration could arrive in the next few days, followed by full six-nation nuclear negotiations in early June, Agence France-Presse reported.  China, Japan, Russia, the United States and both Koreas have spent years seeking a resolution to Pyongyang’s nuclear activities (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, May 14). Once the declaration is submitted, the Bush administration might move to meet the Stalinist state’s demand that it be removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. The U.S. House of Representatives yesterday considered but did not vote on legislation demanding that the administration certify submission of a “complete and correct” declaration before Pyongyang is taken off the terrorism list, AP reported. Lawmakers said verification would be crucial. “Let us not be fooled yet again by North Korea,” said Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) (Foster Klug, Associated Press III, May 13). The State Department’s Kim acknowledged yesterday that disablement of nuclear facilities at Yongbyon has slowed due to North Korean frustration with the rate at which it is receiving energy assistance, AFP reported. Disablement is intended to ensure that facilities would remain off-line for an extended period even if Pyongyang wanted to resume operations.  Work has finished at two plants but continues on the reactor. “I believe they have slowed down the pace a bit,” Kim said.  “They have cited the need to sort of coordinate the timing of energy assistance.” Washington would like to see Pyongyang to increase the rate of removal of fuel rods from the reactor, he said (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, May 13). Meanwhile, the top negotiators on North Korea’s nuclear program from Japan, South Korea and the United States are scheduled to discuss the declaration and verification next week in Washington, AP reported (Associated Press IV/Yahoo!News, May 14). Back to top       Bush Sends U.S.-Russian Nuclear Deal to Congress U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday submitted to Congress a proposed civilian nuclear trade deal with Russia that is already facing considerable opposition from lawmakers, Environment & Energy News reported (see GSN, May 7). The 30-year pact would enable cooperation on an international uranium enrichment station in Siberia and private trade of nuclear research and energy materials between the two countries. “I have considered the views and recommendations of the interested agencies in reviewing the proposed agreement and have determined that its performance will promote, and will not constitute an unreasonable risk to, the common defense and security,” Bush said in a statement to lawmakers. The deal’s opponents in the House and Senate contend it would send a message that the United States has forgiven Moscow for building the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr. “The Bush administration has not received enough support from Russia in dealing with Iran to justify moving forward with this agreement at this time,” said House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman (D-Calif.).  “Administration officials briefed our committee last week, but they were unable to offer convincing answers to our questions.” The agreement would enter into effect 90 days after submission unless Congress approves a resolution rejecting the deal (Katherine Ling, Environment & Energy News, May 13). Berman’s committee would have to sign off on any effort to squash the agreement.  The panel is scheduled to hear testimony on the pact from Bush administration officials next month, the Associated Press reported. Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), the committee’s ranking Republican, said she is also against the agreement. “By deciding to proceed, the administration now faces the possibility of an embarrassing defeat and causing unnecessary damage to our relationship with Russia,” Ros-Lehtinen said in a statement yesterday. Meanwhile, 70 senators have expressed support for legislation that would suspend the U.S.-Russian agreement until Moscow certifies it is no longer providing nuclear assistance to Iran and meets other requirements (Desmond Butler, Associated Press/PR-inside, May 13). Back to top       Cargo-Scanning Program Unfeasible, Official Says A pilot program to scan U.S.-bound cargo containers for nuclear weapons at foreign ports has encountered budgetary, diplomatic and logistical obstacles that could prevent the United States from scanning all inbound cargo by 2012, the Newark Star-Ledger reported yesterday. Speaking to lawmakers in April, U.S. Customs and Border Protection Deputy Commissioner Jayson Ahern said it is “unrealistically feasible” in four years to scan the roughly 11.5 million cargo containers that enter the country on an annual basis. “I’m concerned … that while we continue to increase resources for initiatives like Secure Freight Initiative, we could be neglecting other areas of concern that potentially pose a greater risk and vulnerability to this country,” Ahern said. The United States operates programs such as the Container Security Initiative to detect materials that could be used for a nuclear weapon or radiological “dirty bomb” before they are shipped here.  Nearly all containers undergo radiation scanning after entering U.S. ports, but by that time a potential weapon is already in the country. Congress in 2006 established a pilot program to scan all U.S.-bound cargo at three ports.  Last year, lawmakers adopted the 100-percent cargo scanning mandate in a bill enacting the recommendations of the Sept. 11 commission. Among the various problems with the plan is the absence of systems at foreign ports for scanning cargo being transferred between ships, officials said. Senator Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) called on federal officials to continue pursuing the cargo-scanning mandate. “The administration has shown nothing but sluggishness and pessimism from the time total cargo scanning was first raised, and that is unhelpful,” Menendez said.  “If we require every airline passenger and every piece of luggage to be scanned, we can work to make sure that every piece of cargo that comes to our shores is screened, too.” Randall Larsen, director of the independent Institute for Homeland Security, dismissed the value of the initiative.  A nuclear weapon could be hidden within a vehicle that would not be scanned for radiation on its way to a U.S. auto dealership, he said.  Larsen argued that funds could be better spent securing weapon-grade uranium in former Soviet states and university research reactors in other nations. “Security is about risk management.  But Congress is more interested in feel-good legislation that makes it seem they’re doing something,” Larsen said. Representative Scott Garrett (R-N.J.) added:  “The last thing that I would want to do would be to jeopardize the security of the U.S. by diverting valuable resources into an ineffective program” (Joe Malinconico, Newark Star-Ledger, May 13). Back to top       Iran Presents Nuclear Proposals to U.N., EU Iran today presented U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon with a package of recommendations for handling nuclear issues and other world problems, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, May 13). The proposals include “seven solutions on the (global) nuclear issue,” Iranian state media quoted a spokesman for Iran’s supreme national security council as saying. They address “the points of view of our country toward the great global difficulties on several political, security, economic and energy levels, and on the question of the peaceful use of nuclear energy,” according to Aliasghar Khaji, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations. The United States and other Western powers are concerned that Iran is pursuing nuclear capabilities that could contribute to nuclear weapons development, but Tehran insists its nuclear program is strictly civilian in nature. Iran also provided the proposals to EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Switzerland’s foreign minister, and Tehran plans to give the package to the top Russian and Chinese foreign officials in the near future, said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammed Ali Hosseini (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, May 14). Cristina Gallach, Solana’s spokeswoman, said that Iran’s recommendations “are not focused on the nuclear” stalemate between Iran and the West.  “We’re going to study them,” she said. Gallach added that the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany are considering “the ways of presenting” Iran with their own proposal to address the nuclear impasse.  The proposal would call on Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program in exchange for diplomatic and financial incentives. The Iranian package’s timing has contributed to speculation that it is intended as a distraction from the nuclear compromise being discussed by the six powers (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, May 13). “It is more a statement of position than [a] proposal for ways to go forward.  You cannot be hopeful this will bring the sides closer to dialogue,” a diplomatic source in Europe told Reuters.  “It restates Iran’s known principles — inalienable rights to nuclear energy and so on.  It doesn’t propose anything substantially new” (Parisa Hafezi, Reuters I/Washington Post, May 13). U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack yesterday said the Iranian package is unlikely to help resolve the nuclear impasse, AFP reported. “Given the track record, if they continue on the trend and pathway that they’ve been on, I don’t think anybody’s going to hold their breath,” McCormack told reporters. “But one, again, would hope that they decide to change course in the face of mounting costs to Iran for its behavior that is clearly outside the lines of acceptable behavior in the international system, as defined by three Security Council resolutions,” he said.  “And in terms of the Iranian proposal, they know what the requirements are.  It’s been clearly stated in the Security Council and IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) Board of Governors’ statements and resolutions” (Agence France-Presse III/Google News, May 14). Meanwhile, Russia today called on the other five powers negotiating with Iran to offer security guarantees to the Middle Eastern state to help address the nuclear deadlock. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the six world powers “could put concrete proposals on the table guaranteeing the security of Iran and ensuring Iran a worthy, equal place in talks on resolving all problems in the near and Middle East. “Unfortunately not all members of the ‘six’ are prepared for this, but I am convinced that this is an effective way to remove the tension in the region and resolve the situation around the Iranian nuclear problem,” RIA Novosti quoted Lavrov as saying (Agence France-Presse IV/Yahoo!News, May 14). The Bush administration said that no such security proposal is in the offing, Reuters reported. “Security guarantees are not something we are looking at the moment,” said White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe.  “As we've been saying, details (of the incentive package) are still being worked out and will be presented to the Iranian government soon.  The one who needs to give security guarantees is Iran, because they keep threatening to wipe Israel off the map” (Zakaria/Spetalnick, Reuters II/Yahoo!News, May 14). Back to top       Russia Says Other Nations Conducted More Than 700 Nuclear Tests Over Five Decades Nations outside the former Soviet Union have conducted as many as 730 nuclear tests over the last five decades, a Russian Defense Ministry official said yesterday. Col. Gen. Vladimir Verkhovtsev, who leads the agency’s Special Monitoring Service, identified the testers as China, France, India, Pakistan and the United States, RIA Novosti reported.  He apparently did not mention other known or assumed nuclear weapon states Israel, North Korea and the United Kingdom. Many of the blasts received no media attention, he told the Krasnaya Zvezda daily. “Being a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, Russia has access to data recorded by more than 320 stations belonging to the NTBT international monitoring system,” Verkhovtsev said. The Special Monitoring Service is capable of detecting nuclear detonations with yields as small as 1 kiloton around the globe, he said. The first nuclear blast occurred in New Mexico on July 16, 1945, under the U.S. Manhattan Project (RIA Novosti, May 13). Back to top       Nuclear Reactor Engineer Goes on Trial An Iranian-born engineer went on trial yesterday for using software from an Arizona nuclear power plant while on a trip to his home country, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 23, 2007). Software engineer Mohammad Reza Alavi, 50, was employed at the Palo Verde Nuclear Generation Station from 1989 to August 2006.  He allegedly removed software from the facility in 2006 and subsequently downloaded information allowing him to use it in Iran.  That constituted a violation of the U.S. trade embargo with Tehran. Palo Verde is the largest U.S. nuclear power plant, providing electricity to roughly 4 million customers in four states. There is no indication that Alavi planned to pass information on the facility to terrorists, according to authorities.  His attorney said the naturalized U.S. citizen wanted only to show family members in Iran what his work involved (Jacques Billeaud, Associated Press/Charlotte Observer, May 14). Back to top

Utah Begins Construction of New Health Lab Construction began yesterday on a $31 million replacement for Utah’s public health laboratory, the State Health Department announced. The 81,000-square-foot, three-story Unified State Lab is scheduled to open in fall 2009 in Taylorsville.  Among its features would be negative air pressure space and biosafety facilities allowing for research on potentially lethal diseases and bioterrorism agents such as anthrax, avian influenza and SARS. Among the services to be offered by the facility are detection, identification and management of biological, chemical and radiological threats.  It is also set to offer biological and chemical terrorism preparedness, according to a press release. “From newborn disease screening, to air, water and soil testing, to chemical and bioterrorism preparedness, the lab is an important tool in ensuring the public’s well being,” Health Department chief David Sundwall said in the release. The new facility would replace the laboratory built in 1972 at the University of Utah.  The older site “has become outdated and crowded, and lacks modern safety and engineering features,” the release states (Utah Health Department release, May 13). “This has been a long time coming,” Sundwall said (Lisa Rosetta, Salt Lake Tribune, May 14). Back to top

Scientist Becomes First Woman to Lead Classified Indian Nuclear Missile Project The Indian Defense Research and Development Organization yesterday said it has chosen a female scientist to lead upgrades to the nuclear-capable Agni 2 ballistic missile, United Press International reported (see GSN, May 13). Tessy Thomas, 45, would direct development of the new Agni 2 missile, a nuclear-capable weapon with a 1,243-mile range.  She is the first woman in India to head a classified missile development project. Thomas said that details of the new weapon are classified. The solid fuel specialist previously worked as associate director on the longer-range Agni 3 missile, a weapon capable of hitting most large cities in China.  India is building up its medium-range missile arsenal in response to China’s ballistic missile submarine development. Roughly 200 women currently hold scientific and technical positions at the defense research agency (United Press International, May 13). Back to top

Poland Wants More From Missile Defense Deal The United States has not yet offered sufficient incentives to persuade Poland to host 10 missile interceptors, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said yesterday. “Without a doubt, for the moment the American proposals do not reach the level that would be satisfactory for the Polish side,” he said.  “Our position has not changed.  There will be a missile shield once (our) conditions are satisfied. “The United States, our ally, is completely free to make decisions.  We have the rights and we will exercise the right to formulate our own conditions, our expectations,” Tusk added. The Bush administration is seeking a European component to its missile defense system.  It is expected to soon sign a deal with the Czech Republic on housing an early warning radar. Negotiations continue with Warsaw, which has demanded support for upgrades to the Polish military and U.S. air-defense systems such as the Patriot Advanced Capability 3.  U.S. and Polish negotiators last week established four working groups to address the military modernization matter and other issues related to the missile shield. The Bush administration is seeking $20 million in fiscal 2009 for the Polish military.  Agence France-Presse reported yesterday that Washington to date has offered a total of $47 million (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, May 13). U.S. officials and lawmakers hope to know by mid-July whether Poland is actually interested in becoming home to the interceptors, the Polish News Bulletin reported. Time for talks with the Bush administration is winding down as the United States moves toward election of a new president in November. “While negotiations concerning military and technical matters can be continued after this date, by mid-July Washington needs to know for sure whether Poland wants to host the shield or not,” a source told the Gazeta Wyborcza (Polish News Bulletin, May 13). Top Polish negotiator Witold Waszczykowski has argued, however, that “the time factor is secondary” to ensuring Warsaw’s demands are met, AFP reported (AFP, May 13).     Back to top

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