Pakistani nuclear champion Abdul Qadeer Khan has said he was compelled to confess to leading a nuclear smuggling ring (Aamir Qureshi/Getty Images). Khan Recants Nuclear Confession Former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan has recanted his 4-year-old public admission to running an international nuclear smuggling network without the knowledge of Pakistani leaders, the London Guardian reported today (see GSN, May 29). The discovery of Pakistani-built uranium enrichment equipment in Libya and Iran led to the exposure of the network, and Khan apologized and confessed to his role in early 2004 (see GSN, Feb. 5, 2004).  Since then, he has been confined to house arrest, with those restrictions easing in recent weeks and months...Full Story

Iran Producing Nuclear Fuel Faster, Experts Say Nuclear analysts believe that Iran has significantly increased the efficiency of its uranium enrichment operation, a program the United States and other Western powers fear is intended to generate material for nuclear weapons, the Financial Times reported yesterday (see GSN, May 29)...Full Story

Minot Guards Fail Nuclear Security Test Despite an embarrassing lapse last year when they lost track of six nuclear weapons, U.S. personnel at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., this month failed a nuclear security inspection, Air Force Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 27)...Full Story

	Friday, May 30, 2008

Al-Qaeda in Retreat, CIA Director Says CIA chief Michael Hayden this week touted recent U.S. successes in battling al-Qaeda while warning that the group remains a major threat, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, May 16). “On balance, we are doing pretty well,” he told the Post in an interview, listing numerous victories against the terrorist organization behind the Sept. 11 attacks.  “Near strategic defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq.  Near strategic defeat for al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia.  Significant setbacks for al-Qaeda globally — and here I’m going to use the word ‘ideologically’ — as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam.” He added that the United States has made strides in destabilizing al-Qaeda’s leadership based along the Afghan border and tribal areas of western Pakistan, a trend some experts have attributed to an increased U.S. use of weaponized unmanned aerial vehicles in the region. Hayden said also that al-Qaeda has largely squandered the potential of the U.S. intervention in Iraq to bring Muslims to its side.  Some independent counterterrorism experts shared his view that al-Qaeda is on the defensive, but said the organization might only be experiencing temporary setbacks owing to its own strategic miscalculations as well as declining violence in Iraq. “One of the lessons we can draw from the past two years is that al-Qaeda is its own worst enemy,” said Robert Grenier, a former high-level CIA counterterrorism official.  “Where they have succeeded initially, they very quickly discredit themselves.” Georgetown University terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman warned that al-Qaeda might plan a new large-scale attack to show it remains an effective terrorist organization. “Al-Qaeda’s obituary has been written far too often in the past few years for anyone to declare victory,” Hoffman said.  “I agree that there has been progress.  But we’re indisputably up against a very resilient and implacable enemy” (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, May 30). High-level U.S. officials believe that Iran has been engaging senior al-Qaeda members in secret discussions over the past few months, ABC News reported yesterday. The sources, who have seen closely guarded U.S. intelligence on the matter, said the discussions regard two of Osama bin Laden’s sons.  Iran has kept the two under house arrest since 2003.  The government in Tehran is not likely to free the men and its intention for conducting talks with al-Qaeda remains unclear, the sources said. “The Iranians know there would be hell to pay if these guys were set free,” one U.S. official said. “Iran likely sees these individuals as major bargaining chips,” another official said.  “How and when they’re going to use those chips or whether they are going to keep them in the bank is part of an ongoing strategic discussion they are having internally” (Jonathan Karl, ABC News, May 29). Back to top

U.S. WMD Commission Holds First Meeting A congressionally mandated commission held its first meeting yesterday to establish a framework for studying efforts to protect the United States from a WMD attack (see GSN, May 19). Created to meet a suggestion by the Sept. 11 commission, the new nine-member Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism is chaired by former Senator Bob Graham. “We have a broad mandate,” he said in a release, “but the urgency of these issues requires us to work as quickly as possible so that the next administration and Congress have actionable recommendations at their fingertips.”  The group plans to release a final report this autumn. “The possibility of a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear attack on our homeland is one our nation’s greatest national security threats,” added former Senator Jim Talent, the commission’s vice chairman, in the release.  “I have great confidence in the commitment of our members and our ability to provide the answers necessary to better protect the American people” (Commission release, May 29). Back to top

Khan Recants Nuclear Confession Former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan has recanted his 4-year-old public admission to running an international nuclear smuggling network without the knowledge of Pakistani leaders, the London Guardian reported today (see GSN, May 29). The discovery of Pakistani-built uranium enrichment equipment in Libya and Iran led to the exposure of the network, and Khan apologized and confessed to his role in early 2004 (see GSN, Feb. 5, 2004).  Since then, he has been confined to house arrest, with those restrictions easing in recent weeks and months. The public confession, however, “was not of my own free will,” he told the Guardian recently, while taking a hard line toward cooperating with investigators trying to learn about the smuggling network. “Why should I talk to them?” he said of International Atomic Energy Agency officials.  “I am under no obligation.  We are not a signatory to the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty].  I have not violated international laws." Details of the black market ring were "my internal affair and my country's affair,” he added. Khan dismissed the notion of Pakistani nuclear technology having ever been smuggled as “Western rubbish,” blaming other nations’ acquisition of uranium enrichment technology on Western suppliers. “They were supplying to us, they were supplying to them ... [to] anyone who could pay," he said. Khan said reports that he had an extravagant lifestyle funded by nuclear smuggling were fictions dreamed up by Western media. “It doesn't bother me at all.  They don't like our God, they don't like our prophet, they don't like our holy book, the Koran.  So how could they like me?" he said (Declan Walsh, London Guardian, May 30). Back to top       Iran Producing Nuclear Fuel Faster, Experts Say Nuclear analysts believe that Iran has significantly increased the efficiency of its uranium enrichment operation, a program the United States and other Western powers fear is intended to generate material for nuclear weapons, the Financial Times reported yesterday (see GSN, May 29). A report on Iran’s nuclear program released by the International Atomic Energy Agency this week suggests that Iran is now enriching uranium twice as efficiently as seen previously, several top experts said.  If that is the case, Tehran could accumulate enough enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb as soon as 2009.  Iran maintains it is only enriching uranium for use in its civilian atomic energy program. “Their centrifuges work better (at enriching uranium) and they are working to develop more advanced centrifuges,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.  Albright said Iran is now enriching uranium about half as the speed it wants to, whereas it earlier had been enriching at only about one-fifth of its desired rate.  His institute yesterday released an analysis of the most recent IAEA report. Between December and May, Iran fed more than 5,000 pounds of uranium hexafluoride into its enrichment centrifuges, the IAEA report states.  In the 10 months before that, Iran placed only 3,700 pounds of the material into the machines. According to a diplomat familiar with the agency’s efforts to monitor Iran’s nuclear work, the country from December to May generated roughly 350 pounds of low-enriched uranium that could fuel a nuclear power reactor. “A year ago we were talking about the Iranians making enough low-enriched uranium to be put in a little glass vial and shown to the press,” said Peter Zimmerman, former top scientist for the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  “Now we have almost as much as two people weigh.  That’s a lot of uranium for a plant that a year ago we were snickering at.” Zimmerman and other scientists have estimated that Iran would next year attain an additional 1,300 to 1,500 pounds of low-enriched uranium, giving it a stockpile large enough to generate a bomb’s worth of nuclear-weapon ingredient if it feeds the material through the machines again. Some analysts have suggested that Iran might want to become a “virtual” nuclear-weapon power by reaching a “breakout capacity,” allowing for rapid development of an atomic weapon (Daniel Dombey, Financial Times, May 29). Meanwhile, a high-level IAEA official has expressed worry over Iran’s possession of a 15-page document describing how to shape uranium metal into hemispheres, a key step to producing a nuclear weapon core, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday. At a preparatory conference ahead of the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s governing board meeting planned for next week, IAEA safeguards chief Olli Heinonen said intelligence from 10 countries suggests Iran has conducted nuclear-weapon research in the past.  He also expressed strong concern about Tehran’s possession of the uranium metal paper, a Western diplomat said. “The term he used for this document was 'alarming'.  He essentially said there was no reason why a country would need to possess such a document unless they wanted to produce uranium hemispheres for a nuclear weapon," the diplomat said. Heinonen told AFP only that the discussion was an “informal technical meeting,” but another diplomat confirmed he had used the word “alarming” to describe Iran’s possession of the document. Analysts believe the agency adopted harsher words in the latest report as Iran has withheld details on its major areas of concern. “It's one of the toughest [reports] I've seen," one Western diplomat said yesterday. Referring to Heinonen’s remarks, Gregory Schulte, U.S. envoy to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, stated that “there are strong reasons to suspect that Iran was working covertly and deceitfully, at least until recently, to build a bomb." "Iran has refused to explain or even acknowledge past work on weaponization," he added.  "This is particularly troubling when combined with Iran's determined effort to master the technology to enrich uranium.  Uranium enrichment is not necessary for Iran's civil program but it is necessary to produce the fissile material that could be weaponized into a bomb" (Agence France-Presse/Google News, May 29). Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iranian envoy to the agency, yesterday discounted evidence gathered on his nation’s alleged nuclear weapons work, Reuters reported. "Whatever is shown in the papers, the communications and drawings and the films are all fabricated," he said.  "The CIA has done a lousy job, they should have done a better job to prepare something that at least could fly" (Karin Strohecker, Reuters I/International Herald Tribune, May 30). Another high-level diplomat said that IAEA officials have not assumed that the U.S. intelligence community was correct last year in judging that Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, the Associated Press reported yesterday.  The agency would depend on its own review in determining the timing of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons work, the diplomat said. The agency has obtained one alleged Iranian document dated early 2004 outlining high explosives research that would have bearing on a nuclear weapons program.  Additional documents dated that year outline Iranian efforts to design a missile that could accommodate a nuclear warhead. The diplomat said the documents might review activities that took place before 2004, but Iran must make its nuclear program more transparent for IAEA officials to come to a decisive conclusion (George Jahn, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, May 29). A high-level U.S. official yesterday said the intelligence community does not plan to quickly amend its conclusions about the timeline of Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons work, Reuters reported. "Until we have new data, new facts, we're not going to change the basic [National Intelligence Estimate], the classified version," Principal Deputy National Intelligence Director Donald Kerr said during a dinner sponsored by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.  "We of course are working every day to either find more facts, new facts, or those that might support where we are today," he said. He noted the importance of Iran’s current activities for the country’s nuclear weapon development capability.  "Once you have fissile material in sufficient quantity we're not talking about a great long period of time before an effective weapons capability might exist," he said (Randall Mikkelsen, Reuters II, May 30). Elsewhere, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana would “soon” present Iran with an updated nuclear compromise proposal from the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany, AFP reported.  The proposal would call for Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program in exchange for diplomatic and financial incentives. "Mr. Solana proposed two different dates for his visit to Tehran I am considering," Mottaki told journalists (Agence France-Presse II/Google News, May 29). Back to top       Minot Guards Fail Nuclear Security Test Despite an embarrassing lapse last year when they lost track of six nuclear weapons, U.S. personnel at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., this month failed a nuclear security inspection, Air Force Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 27). The 5th Bomb Wing received an “unsatisfactory” grade Sunday from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, which conducted mock attacks on the base during simulated nuclear operations. The tests were triggered when the unit accidentally loaded six nuclear-armed cruise missiles onto a B-52 aircraft in August 2007.  The strategic bomber flew to Barksdale Air Force Base, La., where the weapons were discovered about 30 hours later.  Minot’s top officer was relieved of command and dozens of other personnel were also punished. The new commander, Col. Joel Westa, did not explain how his team failed to pass the inspection, which had been delayed to provide additional training time after the base failed similar tests in December, according to Air Force Times. “Overall their assessment painted a picture of some things we need to work on in the areas of training and discipline,” he said. The inspectors did approve base practices on nine out 10 issues they examined, but flunked the bomb wing on the “nuclear surety” component. “The most serious failure is the one regarding nuclear security, which is exactly what the Minot incident was all about,” said strategic weapons expert Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. Specific lapses described by the Pentagon inspectors included finding a security guard playing video games while at a “restricted area perimeter” post, assessing that security teams used improper fighting tactics that left them vulnerable to enemy fire and resulted in the simulated death of a some soldiers, and determining that some personnel did not know correct access codes, Air Force Times reported. Ultimately, the auditors concluded that “leaders were unengaged (in) the proper supervision of [security forces] airmen,” their report says. “If the leadership is still unengaged after all that has happened with the warheads, the missing ballistic missile fuses (see GSN, May 29) and problems with the first inspection, then they’re not fit to have this mission,” Kristensen said.  “It’s really frightening.” “It makes you wonder what’s going on elsewhere, like the nuclear weapons stationed at bases overseas, and at Barksdale Air Force Base and Whiteman Air Force Base” in Missouri, he added (Michael Hoffman, Air Force Times, May 30). Back to top       N. Korea Might Keep Nukes, Former U.S. Envoy Says The former lead U.S. negotiator with North Korea said that high-level officials in Pyongyang have recently indicated they do not intend to relinquish their existing nuclear weapons, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, May 29). Charles Pritchard said he asked the question during meetings last month in Pyongyang with top North Korean nuclear negotiator Kim Kye Gwan and other officials.  The answer was:  “The United States should get used to us as a nuclear weapons state,” Pritchard said.  Officials said disarmament would result only from “full and final normalization” of diplomatic relations with Washington. The officials also suggested that North Korea would not provide all the information sought by U.S. officials as part of a 2007 agreement that calls for the Stalinist state to give up its nuclear program. The nuclear declaration was due Dec. 31, 2007, but Pyongyang apparently refused to address key issues related to its nuclear activities.  Under an April compromise plan, it reportedly intends to provide details of its plutonium operations and holdings and to “acknowledge” U.S. suspicions regarding uranium enrichment and nuclear proliferation. Regarding the compromise, Pritchard said Kim and another North Korean official told him they had agreed to be “very cooperative” regarding details of the plutonium program.  However, they said the deal does not require them to address sites for producing and weaponizing plutonium metal or the actual number of weapons in the nation’s stockpile.  A State Department official denied the claim regarding the metal facility and Japan’s foreign minister has said the information must be included in the declaration, the Post reported. U.S. officials should also not anticipate an answer regarding the validity of their concerns on the enrichment or proliferation issues, said Pritchard, a former State Department official and current president of the Korea Economic Institute in Washington.  The North Korean officials maintained the standard line that the regime has no uranium enrichment program and was not involved in Syria’s alleged attempt to build a nuclear reactor (see related GSN story, today). Pyongyang expects it would need three years to dismantle facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex.  While work is progressing, North Korea wants the United States to finish construction of a light-water reactor abandoned following the collapse of a Clinton administration deal on North Korean denuclearization, Pritchard said. He was critical of the overall agreement. “It is a weak handoff that will cause the next administration more problems than it solves,” Pritchard said. North Korea often takes hard-line stands in talks with nongovernmental experts as a negotiating technique, State Department officials said in rejecting Pritchard’s take on the matter (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, May 30). Meanwhile, current top U.S. envoy to the nuclear negotiations Christopher Hill continued his tour of participating nations by meeting today in Moscow with his Russian counterpart, Agence France-Presse reported. Hill was in China earlier this week and recently met in Washington with the lead negotiators from Japan and South Korea. “We do feel we are making progress” in the denuclearization effort, Hill told reporters. Regarding submission of the declaration, Hill said:  “I don't want to predict the day or the week. But I think they are getting ready to do this.” The next full round of six-nation talks would follow release of the declaration (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, May 30). The U.S. State Department also announced yesterday that four congressional staff members were in North Korea this week “on a fact-finding mission,” AFP reported (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, May 29). Elsewhere, North Korean negotiator Kim met today for an hour in Beijing with top South Korean envoy Kim Sook, AFP reported. The official from Pyongyang also met with Hill this week in the Chinese capital (Agence France-Presse III/NASDAQ.com, May 30). Back to top       Official Defends U.S. Role in Syrian Nuclear Issue A high-level U.S. intelligence official yesterday said Washington effectively monitored the construction of a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor site before it was destroyed by an Israeli air strike last September, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 29). Joseph DeTrani, North Korea mission manager for the U.S. national intelligence director, said the United States maintained a close watch over the facility —which was allegedly built with North Korean assistance — for a period of years. "This was not a failure," he said at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  "Action was taken when it was going operational, and they are now out of business." Syria’s envoy to the United States has accused Washington of faking photographs said to have been taken inside the building.  Damascus maintains that it has no nuclear program (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, May 30). Back to top       Russia Dismantles Six Missile Systems Russia announced yesterday that it had eliminated another six Topol nuclear-capable ICBM systems, RIA Novosti reported yesterday (see GSN, May 18, 2007). “We scrapped six outdated Topol mobile systems.  This is the second such procedure conducted this year,” the Russian strategic missile forces said in a statement.  This is the second batch of eastern Ural-based Topol missiles destroyed this year, following the dismantlement of six weapons in March.  The Russian military said it dismantled 36 mobile-launched Topol missiles last year. Work is being carried out under the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty signed in 1991 by the United States and the Soviet Union.  The pact required Moscow and Washington to each reduce their nuclear arsenals to no more than 1,600 delivery vehicles and 6,000 warheads. Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine — former Soviet states covered by the treaty — have eliminated their entire nuclear arsenals by dismantling the weapons or sending them to Russia. The Soviet Union first began deploying Topol missiles in 1985.  It had roughly 290 of the single-warhead missiles in operation when the treaty was signed. Russia extended the planned lifespan for the Topol missiles to 21 years following a series of successful 2007 tests of the weapons, which resemble the U.S. Minuteman ICBM in size and form. Over the next 10 years, Russia plans to gradually phase out the missile and replace it with the newer, mobile-launched Topol-M missile. START is scheduled to expire on Dec. 5, 2009 (RIA Novosti, May 29). Back to top       U.S. Apparently Tests Trident SLBM The United States appears to have recently conducted an unannounced flight test of a submarine-launched Trident missile, the Guam Pacific Daily News reported today (see GSN, Nov. 30, 2007). The front “nose fairing” of a Trident 2 D-5 long-range ballistic missile washed ashore Wednesday on the Island of Yeew in Yap, about 500 miles southwest of Guam, according to the Daily News. The debris came from a routine missile test, said Lt. Donnell Evans, a spokesman for U.S. Naval Forces Marianas (Guam Pacific Daily News, May 30). Back to top

Umatilla Depot Plans Security Drill The Umatilla Chemical Depot in Oregon plans to conduct a four-day security drill beginning Monday, the U.S. Army said (see GSN, May 23; U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, May 29). Back to top

China Moves to Relocate Additional Radiation Sources China today was moving to relocate 99 radiation sources located downstream of a lake formed by May 12 earthquake that devastated the Sichuan province, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, May 27). “Moving these radioactive sources has become a top, urgent priority,” said environmental official Ma Ning, according to the Beijing Times. The Chinese national environmental protection bureau was deploying cranes and sealed vehicles to transport the sources, the Times reported.  The material was expected by this evening to have been moved nearly 200 miles away from Mianyang city. Details were not available regarding the radiation sources.  Earlier press reports had indicated that they could be contained in devices such as X-ray machines or construction-related equipment. Authorities have sought to secure radiation sources in the area hit by the earthquake.  They have offered assurances that nuclear facilities in the earthquake zone remained structurally sound (Agence France-Presse/Channel NewsAsia, May 30).   Back to top

About Newswire  |  Contact National Journal  |  Re-Use Guidelines

© Copyright 2008 by National Journal Group, Inc. The material in this section is produced independently for NTI by National Journal Group, Inc. Any reproduction or retransmission, in whole or in part, is a violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited without the consent of the National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.