U.N. nuclear chief Mohamed ElBaradei has pressed the United States to deal more flexibly with Iran (Behrouz Mehri/Getty Images). IAEA Chief Urges More U.S. Flexibility on Iran International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei yesterday called on the United States to be more flexible as it tries to persuade Iran to halt nuclear activities that could contribute to nuclear weapons development, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 6)...Full Story

U.S. Official Seeks Records During North Korea Trip A senior U.S. State Department official hopes to collect documents on North Korea’s plutonium program and other records during his trip to Pyongyang this week, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 6)...Full Story

Russian-U.S. Deal Faces Resistance in Congress Two U.S. senators are calling on the Bush administration not to submit to Congress a U.S.-Russian civilian nuclear trade agreement because the deal might be seen as forgiving Moscow for providing nuclear assistance to Iran, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 6)...Full Story

	Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Chinese Military Prepares Olympic Security China’s army, navy and air force are gearing up to guard the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing against WMD attacks and other acts of terrorism, China Daily reported yesterday (see GSN, March 11). Among the tasks faced by Chinese security forces, “antiterrorism is our priority and preventing potential nuclear, biological or chemical attacks are the most difficult,” said Tian Yixiang, director of the Olympic security detachment of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.  Interpol and China’s Public Security Ministry have issued recent warnings that terrorism is a “real threat” to the games. “Helicopters, combat aircraft, ships, surface-to-air missiles and antichemical weapons will be used” in security efforts, Tian said. Chinese leaders have also called on the military to boost border security, support intelligence efforts, handle emergency response operations, secure coastal facilities and landmarks, and provide air security for Beijing and other cities. In addition, the military must handle other tasks assigned by China’s Olympic Security Work Coordination Group (Zhu Zhe, China Daily, May 6). Back to top       Feds Practice Evacuation From D.C. A national disaster exercise that began last week involves the evacuation of thousands of federal personnel from Washington, D.C., the Washington Post reported (see GSN, April 29). In National Exercise 2-08, which continues through Saturday, terrorists release a poisonous gas from a tanker in Washington state while Oregon authorities must handle the unintentional escape of nerve agent from the Umatilla Chemical Depot. Meanwhile, the capital region is faced with a terrorist threat and a major hurricane making its way up the East Coast.  Over three days this week, the federal government is using cars and helicopters to move large numbers of employees to temporary sites in Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia.  The drill is intended to test the ability to maintain “continuity of government” in the face of a crisis (see GSN, April 7, 2004). This is among the largest such drills since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, officials said. President George W. Bush was not expected to be among the evacuees, but some White House personnel would be sent out of town, said spokesman Scott Stanzel. “I’m not going to be able to detail who those officials are,” he said. The D.C. exercise is largely a “tabletop” event, meaning there would be more talking than actual deployment of emergency personnel, the Post reported.  Officials from the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia are participating on a limited basis. “At least they’re doing exercises,” said New York University government professor Paul Light.  “It’s not enough to design plans; you have to practice” (Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post, May 7). Back to top

IAEA Chief Urges More U.S. Flexibility on Iran International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei yesterday called on the United States to be more flexible as it tries to persuade Iran to halt nuclear activities that could contribute to nuclear weapons development, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 6). ElBaradei made the remarks while meeting with U.S. Undersecretary of State John Rood, one diplomat said.  Rood declined to elaborate on the discussions except to say that they addressed Iran and Syria. ElBaradei said the United States should take Iranian economic and security concerns into account as it pushes for concessions from Tehran, one diplomat said.  Rood said he would speak with higher-level officials on the matter. The five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany plan to formally present Iran with an updated package of incentives it would receive for halting its disputed nuclear activities, according to diplomats. Iran rejected the package earlier this week because it would reportedly ask the nation to halt its uranium enrichment program.  Iran maintains its uranium program is intended solely for civilian purposes. Following years of negotiations with European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, Tehran hopes to conduct direct talks with officials from at least some of the six powers, diplomats told AP (Associated Press I/Google News, May 6). “French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner yesterday that the offer put forward by China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States was “very precise and very generous,” AP reported. “Each word was weighed, believe me,” he told reporters, noting his optimism that the package might “change a bit the nature of the game and above all the state of mind.” Kouchner would not provide details on the proposal before it is presented to Iran in coming days.  However, he said the offer would be released on the Internet for the Iranian public to view if Tehran does not release it first.  He added it was uncertain who would deliver the offer to Iran (Associated Press II/International Herald Tribune, May 6). ElBaradei said today that a U.N. probe of Iran’s nuclear intentions is moving forward, Agence France-Presse reported. “To verify Iran's past and present activities, we have made good progress,” ElBaradei told journalists in Brussels. “We still have the issue of the so-called alleged studies of weaponization,” he said, referring to allegations that Iran has conducted nuclear weapon design research.  “Right now we have a team in Iran which is working with the Iranian authorities to clarify this issue.” “I very much hope that Iran will continue to work closely with us to demonstrate full transparency because the more transparency we get the more assurance we can provide,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, May 7). Back to top       U.S. Official Seeks Records During North Korea Trip A senior U.S. State Department official hopes to collect documents on North Korea’s plutonium program and other records during his trip to Pyongyang this week, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 6). Korean affairs chief Sung Kim is scheduled to meet tomorrow with North Korean officials for further talks on the nuclear declaration required under the agreement to shutter the Stalinist state’s atomic program. The document was due Dec. 31.  Its absence has proved a major obstacle to progress in the denuclearization process.  A reported compromise plan would require North Korea to details its plutonium activities while only acknowledging U.S. suspicions regarding uranium enrichment and nuclear proliferation. The Bush administration hopes Pyongyang will “produce a declaration in a short span of time.  We’re way past what was expected,” said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. “We are serious about trying to exert every diplomatic effort we can to help the six-party talks move forward; we’re ready to meet our responsibilities, but this is a process that is by no means inevitable.  North Korea has obligations that it needs to meet” (Foster Klug, Associated Press/StarTribune.com, May 6). Meanwhile, Australia is backing the harder line on North Korea taken by new South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, Agence France-Presse reported today. Lee has tied his nation’s economic support for its neighbor to Pyongyang’s willingness to promote denuclearization and human rights.  North Korea has reacted angrily to the demands from Seoul, labeling Lee a “traitor.” Australia has also cut off development assistance to North Korea while awaiting “substantial progress” on the nuclear issue, Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said today during a trip to Seoul. “The nuclear weapons of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea pose a serious threat to regional stability,” Smith said (Agence France-Presse/NASDAQ.com, May 7). Back to top       Russian-U.S. Deal Faces Resistance in Congress Two U.S. senators are calling on the Bush administration not to submit to Congress a U.S.-Russian civilian nuclear trade agreement because the deal might be seen as forgiving Moscow for providing nuclear assistance to Iran, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 6). The 123 agreement signed in Moscow yesterday would enable private firms in Russia and the United States to conduct direct trade involving nuclear materials and allow the countries to collaborate on an international nuclear fuel enrichment station in Siberia. However, the deal’s opponents contend that Russia might be assisting secret Iranian efforts to develop a nuclear bomb by building a nuclear power plant in Iran and supplying it with fuel (see related GSN story, today). In a letter provided to AP, Senators Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) and Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) said the agreement “would pave the way for the increased commercialization of Russia’s nuclear energy sector and could be construed as U.S. approval of its proliferation activities in Iran.” “I am very disappointed by the administration’s insistence on moving forward to sign a nuclear cooperation arrangement with the Russians,” Coleman said.  “Particularly at a time when Russia’s actively undermining our foreign policy on various fronts, most importantly with respect to Iran.” One State Department official said the Bush administration does not consider Russia’s nuclear assistance to Iran a sufficient reason to block the agreement. “The president has made clear his support for Russia’s supply of nuclear fuel to Bushehr because it demonstrates that Iran does not need to possess the complete nuclear fuel cycle with its proliferation risks to take advantage of the peaceful uses of nuclear energy,” the official said (Frederic Frommer, Associated Press/Google News, May 6). U.S. and Russian delegates praised the deal at its signing yesterday, the Washington Post reported. “The U.S. and Russia were once nuclear rivals,” said U.S. Ambassador to Russia William Burns.  “Today, we are nuclear partners with unique capabilities and unique responsibilities for global nuclear leadership.” Sergei Kiriyenko, head of the state-owned nuclear energy agency Rosatom, called the agreement a move “to eliminate the legacy of the Cold War” (Peter Finn, Washington Post, May 7). A bill sponsored by Senator Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) would make the cessation of Russian-Iranian nuclear cooperation a precondition to the U.S.-Russian nuclear deal’s implementation, AP reported.  The proposal has 70 co-sponsors, but Coleman said it is uncertain whether the bill could be approved within the 90 days that Congress has to act once the deal is formally submitted. “Even if you have the votes, it doesn’t mean you’ll have time to take it up and debate it. … There’s no guarantee that leadership will schedule a vote,” Coleman said, adding that the legislation’s passage was “a high bar” (Frommer, AP). Back to top       U.S., India Urged to Finish Nuclear Deal An Indian official yesterday said the fate of a proposed nuclear trade deal with the United States would become much less clear if it is not approved before U.S. President George W. Bush leaves office in January, United Press International reported (see GSN, May 6). “Obviously, the sooner we have the deal, the better,” said Shyam Saran, New Delhi’s top envoy on the agreement.  “As the process continues, the world is not standing still.  The level of political uncertainty will increase.  Therefore, it is in our interest to get it through sooner than later.” The deal has faced crippling opposition from Indian communist parties, which have threatened to withdraw support from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government and force early elections if the Singh moves to implement the pact. “This government has a commitment to the agreement and every effort possible will be made to see the deal through,” Saran said, according to the Press Trust of India (United Press International, May 6). Indian administration officials made little progress yesterday in talks aimed at resolving the stalemate over the deal, under which New Delhi would allow international monitoring of its civilian nuclear sites in exchange for access to U.S. nuclear technology and material. “The issue is with Indian politics and the Indian government working on their end to try to resolve any issues they may have,” U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said yesterday when asked whether the agreement is “just dead” or “moving forward.” McCormack said he was uncertain to what degree former U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns is involved in continued talks on the deal.  Burns served as the top U.S. negotiator on the pact before leaving his position in February, but said he would continue to work on bilateral issues (Indo-Asian News Service I/Times of India, May 7). Saran also dismissed opposition from Nonaligned Movement states for any move by the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group to exempt India from its ban on exporting nuclear material to countries that have not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. At a preparatory meeting for the 2010 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference, NAM members urged a “complete prohibition” of nuclear exports to countries that remain outside the treaty.  The plea might have implicitly referred to India and Israel. “They have certain viewpoints.  We respect that,” Saran said.  “India is not seeking any special privilege.  It's not an embarrassment to us.  It's the standard position of the [Nonaligned Movement]” (Indo-Asian News Service II/Yahoo!News, May 6). Back to top

India Tests Nuclear-Capable Agni 3 Missile India today conducted a successful test launch of its long-range Agni 3 missile, Reuters reported (see GSN, March 24). The nuclear-capable missile was fired from an island near India’s eastern coast, traveled about 1,900 miles in 13 minutes and landed in waters south of the equator, the Indian government said in a statement. “It was a textbook launch,” the statement said. The indigenously built Agni 3 missile has a 1,900-mile range, enabling it to deliver a nuclear warhead into the interior of China.  The exercise was India’s third test of the missile and the second successful launch.  India is now developing the Agni 4 missile, which would have a range of 3,000 miles.  New Delhi also hopes to complete a proprietary ballistic missile defense system within several years. India maintains shorter-range missiles for striking targets inside neighboring Pakistan, which has its own nuclear arsenal (Jatindra Dash, Reuters/Yahoo!News, May 7). Back to top

Polish Leader Reaffirms Demands on Missile Defense Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said yesterday that the United States must meet demands for support if it wants to place 10 missile interceptors in the country, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, May 5). “The position of the Polish government is firm,” he said.  “We are waiting for practical proposals.  If there aren’t any, then there won’t be a decision” on the interceptors. Tusk was speaking before negotiations today between Washington and Warsaw. The Bush administration wants to install the interceptors in Poland and an early warning radar in the Czech Republic.  It has reached agreement with Prague and a formal agreement is set to be signed in June or July. Tusk’s government has proved a tougher sell.  It has demanded U.S. support for military modernization and access to air-defense technology, along with security assurances from Washington (Agence France-Presse I, May 6). Polish and U.S. negotiators today met with experts in Warsaw to discuss the military upgrade issue, the Associated Press reported.  The Bush administration for fiscal 2009 is seeking $20 million to support the Polish effort (Associated Press/Charleston Daily Mail, May 7). “I remain optimistic that we’re going to successfully conclude our negotiations with the Poles to place a site for missile defense interceptors in that country,” Undersecretary of State for Arms Control John Rood said yesterday in Vienna. “I had the opportunity to see my Polish counterpart yesterday in Prague.  There are some important issues that still need to be resolved in our bilateral negotiations,” he added.  “But, as I say, I remain optimistic” (Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, May 6). Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev said that the U.S. missile defense plan for Europe could ignite another Cold War, AFP reported today.  The missile defense installations would be part of an effort to rein in Russia, Gorbachev said, dismissing the U.S. argument that the system is intended to counter Iran or other rogue nations. “The United States cannot tolerate anyone acting independently,” Gorbachev told the Daily Telegraph newspaper.  “Every U.S. president has to have a war. “Erecting elements of missile defense is taking the arms race to the next level,” he added.  “It is a very dangerous step” (Agence France-Presse III/Yahoo!News, May 7). Meanwhile, Arms Control Today reported that the NATO statement last month on European missile defense was not quite as much a win for the Bush administration as claimed. At the end of the three-day summit in Romania, the 26 NATO states said they “recognize the substantial contribution” of the proposed U.S. shield against long-range missiles.  However, U.S. officials had wanted the statement to use a stronger word than “recognize,” possible “welcomes” or “supports,” according to officials from some NATO members. NATO also made no pledge to deploy its own missile defense systems, stating only that it would “develop options” to safeguard areas not covered by the U.S. installations.  The alliance plans to assess the options next year (Wade Boese, Arms Control Today, May 2008). Back to top

Israel Should Shutter Dimona, Security Expert Says Israel should consider shutting down its plutonium production reactor at Dimona to prevent the facility from being targeted as a static radiological weapon and to receive broader political gains, a former U.S. official argued in an Arms Control Today article released yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 3). Bennett Ramberg, a State Department official during the George H.W. Bush administration, said “a successful strike on an operating Dimona reactor that breached containment and generated an explosion and fire involving the core would present effects similar to a substantial radiological weapon or dirty bomb.” The risk of such an attack increased recently when Israel bombed a Syrian facility in September after concluding that the site was an unfinished plutonium production reactor, Ramberg said (see GSN, April 25). The Dimona reactor, fueled with natural uranium and moderated with heavy water, has produced the plutonium for Israel’s suspected nuclear arsenal of up to 200 warheads.  The facility also produces tritium, a relatively short-lived hydrogen isotope that can be used to boost the power of nuclear weapons, Ramberg said. Closing the reactor would not affect Israel’s nuclear deterrent and would reduce a potential danger to downwind populations, Ramberg said. “Dimona has produced all the plutonium Israel’s armed forces could possibly utilize.  The numbers of nuclear weapons in the arsenal, even if the weapons were not tritium boosted, suffice to destroy any collection of adversaries multiple times over and are therefore sufficient for deterrence,” he said.  “Closure would eliminate a radiological hostage and a reactor, which is among the world’s oldest and which has already suffered minor mishaps, that Israel should shut because it is nearing the end of its life expectancy of safe operation.” If Israeli leaders were reluctant to permanently shutter the reactor, simply placing the facility into a standby mode would yield similar benefits if the nuclear and radioactive materials were removed and stored elsewhere, Ramberg added. “On balance, shutting down or mothballing the Dimona reactor would reap both important security and political benefits,” he said (Bennett Ramberg, Arms Control Today, May 2008). Back to top

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