Led by negotiator Sung Kim, U.S. officials left North Korea last month with boxes of nuclear reactor operating records (Chung Sung-jun/Getty Images). North Korea Details Size of Plutonium Stockpile In documents recently delivered to the United States, North Korea indicated that it has produced 37 kilograms of plutonium, the New York Times reported Saturday (see GSN, May 31). Pyongyang had previously said it had produced 30 kilograms while U.S. intelligence agencies put the amount between 40 and 50 kilograms.  Varying estimates have found that North Korea could produce between six and 10 nuclear weapons with its plutonium; it tested one weapon in October 2006...Full Story

Terrorist Conventional Attack More Worrisome Than WMD Threat, Homeland Security Chief Says The Bush administration worries more about another large-scale act of terrorism using conventional means rather than an incident involving a weapon of mass destruction, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said Friday (see GSN, May 28)...Full Story

Bhutto Took Nuclear Data to North Korea, Book Says Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto personally smuggled nuclear information to North Korea in 1993, according to a new book by an author respected by proliferation experts, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, May 28)...Full Story

	Monday, June 2, 2008

Terrorist Conventional Attack More Worrisome Than WMD Threat, Homeland Security Chief Says The Bush administration worries more about another large-scale act of terrorism using conventional means rather than an incident involving a weapon of mass destruction, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said Friday (see GSN, May 28). “In our immediate or near term, the focus is on conventional weapons which can still be quite damaging.  Something on the scale of 9/11 or the attacks on your transportation system,” Chertoff said during a speech in London, referring to the deaths of 52 commuters killed by suicide bombers in July 2005 in that city.  “We have to look at the whole spectrum.” A recently released video, “Nuclear Jihad:  The Ultimate Terror,” called for the use of biological or chemical weapons against the United States, the Associated Press reported.  Possession of such weapons could prevent the United States from using a nuclear bomb against an Islamic nation, the video implied. The video is “just an indication of the strong desire that jihadists have for the use of such a weapon, but I don't see a reason to worry about a WMD attack in the U.S. based on this chatter," said Rita Katz, head of the SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks militant communications on the Internet. Chertoff concurred. “The intent is there.  Its probability, particularly in the short term, is lower than conventional weapons.  The video does not suggest that there has been an immediate threat or change,” he said. Another intelligence analyst said the video had most probably come from a sympathizer to the militant cause rather than al-Qaeda itself. “They take clips from everywhere — the BBC, old [Osama] bin Laden clips and edit them together.  The mention of weapons of mass destruction is just wishful thinking,” said Ben Venzke, chief executive officer of the IntelCenter intelligence group (Associated Press/USA Today, May 30). Back to top       Political Goals Behind List of Terrorist Sponsors Nations appearing on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism have been designated for political reasons as well as their actual backing of terrorist activities, the Associated Press reported Saturday.  The list is used by U.S. officials as a tool to try to persuade countries to modify their policies, including some WMD proliferation activities (see GSN, May 27). Just five nations are on the list — Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Sudan and Syria — even though considerable evidence exists for others, such as Venezuela.  The designation triggers a set of sanctions, including restrictions on foreign and defense aid, and is also intended to discourage U.S. allies from engaging with the listed nations. Removal from the list has emerged as a key North Korean goal in its denuclearization process.  Pyongyang has slowed the disablement of a key nuclear facility while pressing U.S. negotiators to drop the regime from the list.  North Korea is not suspected of any direct terrorist involvement in more than 20 years, AP reported. “Clearly, the state sponsors of terrorism list looms very large in the North Koreans' thinking,” said Sharon Squassoni, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  “It is a black mark.  You don't want to be in the kind of company on that list:  Iran, Cuba, Syria.  It would be quite a step forward politically and symbolically" if North Korea could be removed from the list, she said. Cuba is another listed nation that has not been accused of recent terrorist activities but remains on the list because of U.S. domestic political pressures, according to AP. “Of course the list is political,” said Georgetown University terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman.  “This is exactly the purpose:  to offer carrots and sticks to engage states and then to use this as a means to persuade them to desist from activities that we think are harmful to America” (Foster Klug, Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, May 31). Back to top

North Korea Details Size of Plutonium Stockpile In documents recently delivered to the United States, North Korea indicated that it has produced 37 kilograms of plutonium, the New York Times reported Saturday (see GSN, May 31). Pyongyang had previously said it had produced 30 kilograms while U.S. intelligence agencies put the amount between 40 and 50 kilograms.  Varying estimates have found that North Korea could produce between six and 10 nuclear weapons with its plutonium; it tested one weapon in October 2006. U.S. officials are not yet accepting the latest figures, contained in more than 18,000 pages of documents submitted as a prelude to the regime’s declaration of its atomic activities and holdings.  State Department officials said they would need several weeks to examine all the documents. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, top U.S. envoy to the six-nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, said Pyongyang is striving to complete the declaration.  The accounting is required under the second phase of a 2007 agreement under which the Stalinist state would give up its nuclear programs in exchange for economic, diplomatic and security benefits from China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. “We’re coming to an important juncture in this process,” Hill said Friday after meeting with his Russian counterpart in Moscow. The documents released to date do not address suspected North Korean uranium enrichment and nuclear proliferation activities.  Pyongyang’s unwillingness to address those issues has held up the denuclearization process for months.  An April compromise plan reportedly only calls for an acknowledgment of U.S. suspicions in these sectors. Meanwhile, the State Department on Friday refuted comments from a former agency official, the Times reported.  Charles Pritchard, head of the Korea Economic Institute, said North Korean officials told him in April that they did not intend to relinquish the nation’s full stockpile of nuclear weapons and material. “With all due respect to Mr. Pritchard, he’s a former government official,” said State Department spokesman Tom Casey.  “I’m not sure who he’s talking to.  But I think [Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice], [President George W. Bush] and Chris Hill have all made clear that we expect the North Koreans to provide us a declaration that meets the requirements of the six parties” (Helene Cooper, New York Times, May 31). “There are way too many people that make a living professing to know what’s really going on inside these and other negotiations,” Casey said, “and it’s kind of amazing how usually they are wrong. “If I had a dime for every time some former official with an axe to grind had put forward their own version of what our negotiations were, I would be a very wealthy man,” he added (Yonhap News Agency I, May 31). South Korea’s lead nuclear negotiator also said he expects Pyongyang to soon issue its nuclear declaration, Agence France-Presse reported. “North Korea was preparing to submit a nuclear declaration, and I could confirm it was almost completed,” Kim Sook said yesterday following his first meeting with top North Korean envoy Kim Kye Gwan (Agence France-Presse/Channel NewsAsia, June 1). However, the official from Seoul said the United States might need additional time to take North Korea off the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, Yonhap reported.  Pyongyang has demanded the move in exchange for releasing the declaration. “In my view, the U.S. needs more time, while North Korea's preparations are almost done," he told reporters (Yonhap News Agency II, June 1). Along with the declaration, the second phase of the denuclearization process calls on North Korea to disable its plutonium-producing nuclear reactor and two other key facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex.  Slightly more than one-third of spent fuel rods have been removed from the five-megawatt reactor, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei said today. “These fuel rods, as well as the two-thirds remaining in the reactor core, are under agency containment and surveillance,” ElBaradei said in a statement to the IAEA Board of Governors.  “The nuclear material produced during the disabling facilities at the nuclear fuel fabrication plant also remains under agency containment and surveillance.  The agency has not been requested to participate in the disablement of these facilities” (International Atomic Energy Agency release, June 2). North Korea said Saturday that a recent U.S. report that addressed human rights and freedom under the regime left it “skeptical about whether [Washington] has true willingness” to end the nuclear standoff, the Associated Press reported [Kelly Olsen, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, May 31). Back to top       Bhutto Took Nuclear Data to North Korea, Book Says Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto personally smuggled nuclear information to North Korea in 1993, according to a new book by an author respected by proliferation experts, the Washington Post reported yesterday (see GSN, May 28). The transfer of detailed information about uranium enrichment came as part of a trade for ballistic missile technology, badly wanted by Pakistani military leaders to balance Indian missile advantages, according to the book Goodbye, Shahzadi by Shyam Bhatia. “Before leaving Islamabad she shopped for an overcoat with the 'deepest possible pockets' into which she transferred CDs containing the scientific data about uranium enrichment that the North Koreans wanted,” Bhatia says in the book.  “She implied with a glint in her eye that she had acted as a two-way courier, bringing North Korea's missile information on CDs back with her on the return journey.” Bhatia said Bhutto told him the story under promise that he not report it while she was alive.  She was assassinated in Pakistan last December (see GSN, Jan. 2). The story, she said, was “so significant that I had to promise never to reveal it, at least not during her lifetime,” Bhatia says in the book. The Pakistani Embassy in Washington said there was “no iota of truth” in the “absurd and baseless claim.” However, the story “makes sense,” said nuclear expert David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security.  Albright said the timing of the data transfer would correspond to other information suggesting North Korean interest in acquiring uranium enrichment technology. Bhatia, the author of four earlier books including one on India’s nuclear history, received praise from two other nuclear experts. “He is very smart, a serious guy, and the work he did on the Indian nuclear program has held up really well,” said George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The author is “credible on Bhutto,” added Selig Harrison of the Center for International Policy.  “He knew her very well and is a reputable Indian journalist” (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, June 1). Meanwhile, U.S. officials dismissed statements by former Pakistani top nuclear official Abdul Qadeer Khan recanting his 2004 public confession to leading an international nuclear smuggling network.  Khan has recently given interviews saying he delivered the confession under pressure from Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf (see GSN, May 30). U.S. officials, however, did not accept the turnabout. “We have not changed our assessment that A.Q. Khan was a very major and dangerous proliferator.  He sold sensitive nuclear equipment and know-how to some genuinely bad actors,” said one U.S. official (Press Trust of India/Howrah.org, May 31). Back to top       IAEA Cleared to Visit Syria Syria has agreed to allow U.N. nuclear inspectors to investigate U.S. claims that Damascus had nearly completed construction of a nuclear reactor before Israel destroyed the facility last year, chief inspector Mohamed ElBaradei announced today (see GSN, May 29). Syrian officials have denied that the site was nuclear-related, but had refused to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency into the country to investigate. “It has now been agreed that an agency team will visit Syria during the period June 22-24,” Elbaradei told a meeting of the agency’s governing board that began today in Vienna.  “I look forward to Syria’s full cooperation.” The suspect facility was destroyed by Israeli air forces in September after intelligence services concluded that it was a plutonium production facility that had only military applications.  Evidence released by U.S. intelligence officials purported to show photographs from inside the facility that suggested its design was similar to a North Korean reactor. ElBaradei and other analysts have criticized Israel for destroying the site before more data could be collected.  Since then, Syria has further razed the area and erected another structure on top of the suspected reactor site. “It is deeply regrettable that information concerning this installation was not provided to the agency in a timely manner and that force was resorted to unilaterally before the agency was given an opportunity to establish the facts,” he told the board today in his opening statement. He also criticized Damascus for its potential failure to disclose its nuclear construction activities. “Syria, like all states with comprehensive safeguards agreements, has an obligation to report the planning and construction of any nuclear facility to the agency,” he said (Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire, June 2). Back to top       IAEA Chief Presses Iran for Nuclear Cooperation Decrying a “regrettable” lack of cooperation, the world’s top nuclear official today pressed Iran to help him allay Western suspicions that the nation has military ambitions for its nuclear activities (see GSN, May 30). “Iran has not provided the [International Atomic Energy] Agency with all the access to documents and to individuals requested by the secretariat, nor has Iran provided the substantive explanations required to support its statements” that all nuclear research has been peaceful in nature, said agency leader Mohamed ElBaradei in an opening statement to a regular session of the agency’ governing board in Vienna. Tehran has clarified many aspects of its past nuclear activities, he said, but nuclear officials have stumbled in clearing up allegations that the nation has conducted research into nuclear-weapon designs. “It is regrettable that we have not made the progress we had hoped for with respect to the one remaining major issue, namely clarification of the cluster of allegations and secretariat questions relevant to possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program,” ElBaradei said.  “The so-called alleged studies remain a matter of serious concern” (International Atomic Energy Agency release, June 2). ElBaradei took an unusually hard stand, said one senior Western diplomat, suggesting that the agency leader is growing more frustrated with his efforts to understand Iran’s nuclear program, five years after Tehran acknowledged its existence (Reuters/New York Times, June 2). ElBaradei released a report last week describing the agency’s understanding of Iran’s past nuclear activities, and agency safeguards chief Olli Heinonen briefed diplomats Thursday on the report’s details. The story he told was a “deeply troubling one,” said one diplomat in attendance.  Of particular concern was Iran’s possession of a document on crafting uranium metal into hemispheres, a shape that has strong nuclear-weapon implications. Heinonen described his “alarm” that Iran had the information, the diplomat said. Iran has said it acquired the document in a batch of uranium enrichment technology data it received from an illicit nuclear network in the late 1980s (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, June 1). Despite the continuing agency concerns, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin expressed confidence recently that Iran was not seeking nuclear weapons.  “I don’t believe so.  Nothing indicates it,” he said in a Le Monde interview published Saturday. “The Iranians are a proud people," he said.  "They want to enjoy their independence and exercise their legitimate right to civil nuclear power. "I am serious.  On a legal level, Iran has infringed nothing at the moment.  They have the same right to enrichment (of uranium.).  The paperwork says so.  Iran is accused of not displaying all its programs to the IAEA.  This point remains to be resolved,” Putin said. Still, he urged Iran to cooperate with the nuclear agency and to avoid provoking other nations in the region.  Iran should remain without nuclear weapons, he said. "That is our principled position," he said.  "Using nuclear weapons in a region as small as the Middle East would be synonymous with suicide.  Whose interests would it serve?  The Palestinians?  Hardly, the Palestinians would cease to exist.” “We ask them to take that into account, and not irritate their neighbors or the international community, and prove they have no ulterior motives,” he added (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, May 31). For its part, Iran has criticized ElBaradei’s recent report. “We were expecting more than this from the agency," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said yesterday.  “If it was not for the pressure from one or two countries, the agency could have made a better report which would not have given any opportunity for some countries who are seeking pretexts to put pressure on us” (Agence France-Presse III/Spacewar.com, June 1). McCain Calls for “Real-World Pressures” on Iran Meanwhile, U.S. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.), the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, today warned that Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.  He said such a development would create direct dangers from Tehran and would spur nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. “Tehran's continued pursuit of nuclear weapons poses an unacceptable risk, a danger we cannot allow,” said in prepared remarks to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.  “Emboldened by nuclear weapons, Iran would feel free to sponsor terrorist attacks against any perceived enemy.  Its flouting of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty would render that agreement obsolete and could induce Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and others to join a nuclear arms race.  The world would have to live, indefinitely, with the possibility that Tehran might pass nuclear materials or weapons to one of its allied terrorist networks.  Armed as well with its ballistic missile arsenal, an Iranian nuclear bomb would pose an existential threat to the people of Israel.” McCain also dismissed a proposal to negotiate directly with Iran, offered by his likely Democratic rival Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.). “The Iranians have spent years working toward a nuclear program.  And the idea that they now seek nuclear weapons because we refuse to engage in presidential-level talks is a serious misreading of history,” McCain said. “It's hard to see what such a summit with [Iranian] President [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad  would actually gain, except an earful of anti-Semitic rants, and a worldwide audience for a man who denies one Holocaust and talks before frenzied crowds about starting another.  Such a spectacle would harm Iranian moderates and dissidents, as the radicals and hard-liners strengthen their position and suddenly acquire the appearance of respectability,” he said. A better strategy would be to “create real-world pressures that will peacefully but decisively change the path they are on,” McCain said, calling for more stringent U.N. Security Council sanctions, tougher U.S. economic penalties on Iranian businesses and banks, and “a worldwide divestment campaign” analogous to the 1980s effort to pressure the South African apartheid government (U.S. Senator John McCain release, June 2). Back to top       Nuke Documents Likely on Black Market, Experts Say Nuclear analysts fear that nations or individuals looking to develop a nuclear weapon could find blueprints and other informational material on the black market, the London Guardian reported Saturday (see GSN, May 21). The Swiss government acknowledged last month that it had destroyed up to 30,000 documents related to its investigation of three engineers — a Swiss man and his two sons — linked to the proliferation ring once operated by top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan (see GSN, May 30). President Pascal Couchepin said the papers were shredded to prevent them from “getting into the hands of a terrorist organization or an unauthorized state.”  Reports indicated that the documents’ destruction occurred under pressure from the United States.  One of the brothers, Urs Tinner, is believed to have conducted work for the CIA, according to the Guardian. “The Americans were involved in the destruction.  They were calling the shots,” one international official said. One former high-level official with the International Atomic Energy Agency said he was “quite astonished.  It’s very unusual to see people destroying documents like this.  They should be put somewhere safe.” That is not likely to be the end of the story, one expert said. “We know that copies were made,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, of the International Institute of Strategic Studies.  “Both U.S. intelligence and the IAEA had been pursuing this with great urgency and diligence.  But what happened to the other copies that [Urs Tinner] made?  It is worrisome that there are other plans floating around somewhere out there.” The material in question was reportedly collected from Tinner’s home and computers.  Tinner reportedly told authorities that he kept nuclear weapon designs in his office, according to testimony from the 2006 trial in Germany of another suspect in the Khan ring.  The information also made its way to Khan network computers in Dubai. “It’s amazing these people had so much information, incredibly sensitive stuff on nuclear weaponization and gas centrifuges,” said David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security.  “I’m sure the U.S. got a copy.  But who else got a document?  Can you believe these two, the brothers were the only ones who got the stuff?” (Ian Traynor, London Guardian, May 31). Back to top

Problems Reported With Israeli Anthrax Vaccine Work An Israel biological defense facility appears to be having trouble with its anthrax vaccine work, Haaretz reported yesterday (see GSN, May 16, 2007). The Biological Research Institute was reported as early as 2001 to have developed a vaccine.  Mass production was expected to begin in a matter of months, sources said. A senior management official at the facility recently said there were problems with management of the anthrax vaccine.  Yaakov Hadar took his concerns to facility chief Avigdor Shafferman, only to be reprimanded and persuaded to take back the letter in which he made his claims. Hadar has since been demoted, Haaretz reported. The newspaper report indicated that other high-level institute personnel have expressed concerns about the vaccine; it did not include details of the reported problems.  An Israeli Defense Ministry spokesman denied any troubles. “During the development of the anthrax vaccination that was carried out on behalf of the defense establishment, there were no problems in the conduct of any party,” the official said. The institute operates with minimal outside oversight and is known for its secrecy.  It develops countermeasures for biological and chemical warfare agents that might be used against Israel and has also been linked in foreign publications to offensive research (Yossi Melman, Haaretz, June 1). Back to top

Russia Moves Closer to CW Disposal Pact With Italy The upper house of the Russian parliament has signed off on a pact allowing the nation to accept funding from Italy for chemical weapons disposal, Interfax reported Friday (see GSN, May 22). “The deal was signed in Rome in November 2003 and is aimed at the implementation by Russia and Italy of the G-8 Global Partnership political agreements against proliferation of weapons and materials of mass destruction,” according to the foreign affairs committee of the Federation Council. The agreement calls for Italy to provide more than $560 million for preparation of a chemical weapons elimination plant at Pochep in the Bryansk region.  Funding would cover design, construction, equipment and services. The deal establishes a framework covering organizational and legal matters for the project.  Russia has the world’s largest stockpile of chemical weapons (Interfax, May 30). Back to top

Gates Questions Purpose of Chinese Missile Arsenal U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates expressed skepticism yesterday about China’s stated purpose for its arsenal of ICBMs, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, May 19). Lt. Gen. Ma Xiaotian, deputy head of the General Staff for the People’s Liberation Army, said the missiles are a component of his nation’s effort to defend itself against potential threats. “I don’t know what you use them for if it’s not for offensive capabilities,” Gates said in Bangkok.  The Chinese system is “clearly for use in an offensive way.” While not singling out the United States Ma had also expressed concern about the potential for expansion of missile defense capabilities to undermine stability in the region (see GSN, May 27).  The United States is working with Japan on missile shield systems and hopes to deploy elements to Europe. “I think that it’s more of a political statement than it is one about military strategy,” Gates said of Ma’s statement (Lolita Baldor, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 2). Ma made his comments Saturday during a speech in Singapore, the Los Angeles Times reported.  His presentation was largely focused on comments made earlier by Gates at the same defense conference. “China is a peace-loving country and its people are a peace-loving people,” Ma said.  “Notwithstanding the vicissitudes of the international situation, China will always adopt a defensive military policy.” The two men met for about 15 minutes Saturday but did not discuss U.S. concerns about China’s growing military budget, one Pentagon official said (Peter Spiegel, Los Angeles Times, June 1). Japan also Saturday questioned China’s explanation for its arsenal and military buildup, Reuters reported. “I wonder if that was aimed at only protecting itself,” said Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the conference in Singapore.  “I sometimes wonder maybe that is not the only intention when you look at the ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. “We would like to urge China to further enhance the transparency of its military capabilities and their purposes,” Ishiba added (Qing/Loo, Reuters/Herald Sun, May 31). Back to top

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