U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has plans to visit Asia this month to discuss the North Korean nuclear crisis (Tim Sloan/Getty Images). North Korean Nuclear Declaration Could Arrive Next Week, Diplomats Say North Korea is prepared to issue the long-awaited declaration of its nuclear activities next week, potentially giving a spark to denuclearization efforts that have faltered this year in the document’s absence, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 19). Diplomatic sources told the Yonhap News Agency that the declaration would arrive around June 26.  It would probably be delivered to China, which has hosted the six-nation talks aimed at shuttering North Korea’s nuclear operations. The declaration is a key component of the second phase of a process that began last year after Pyongyang agreed to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure in return for economic, diplomatic and security concessions from China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States...Full Story

Pakistan Resists Renewed Study of Khan Network Pakistan sought yesterday to quash any efforts to revive an investigation into the black market network once led by the nation’s top nuclear scientist, and U.S. officials appeared to back that strategy, according to news reports (see GSN, June 18)...Full Story

Israeli Military Exercise Appears Aimed at Iran U.S. officials believe that a large-scale Israeli military exercise this month was intended as preparation for launching long-range strikes against Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, June 20)...Full Story

	Friday, June 20, 2008

EU Cargo Rule Might Miss 2009 Deadline, Group Says An EU cargo security effort is in danger of missing a key deadline, a European shipping group said yesterday.  The program aims to have shippers declare all cargo at least 24 hours before loading it onto freighters, and the shippers have been asked to implement these measures by July 1, 2009, Lloyd’s List reported (see GSN, Feb. 20). The European Community Shipowners’ Associations blamed possible delays in enacting the rule — intended to help prevent weapons of mass destruction from being smuggled in shipping containers — on the slow development of electronic systems for managing cargo declarations. “It appears increasingly doubtful whether these systems will be ready,” the organization said. European Union member nations have made differing amounts of progress in implementing the plan. “The problem exists in more than one country,” said ECSA director Alfons Guinier.  “The pressure at the moment is for everyone to be ready on time, but there might have to be a delay” (Justin Stares, Lloyd’s List, June 20). Back to top

North Korean Nuclear Declaration Could Arrive Next Week, Diplomats Say North Korea is prepared to issue the long-awaited declaration of its nuclear activities next week, potentially giving a spark to denuclearization efforts that have faltered this year in the document’s absence, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 19). Diplomatic sources told the Yonhap News Agency that the declaration would arrive around June 26.  It would probably be delivered to China, which has hosted the six-nation talks aimed at shuttering North Korea’s nuclear operations. The declaration is a key component of the second phase of a process that began last year after Pyongyang agreed to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure in return for economic, diplomatic and security concessions from China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. Pyongyang was scheduled to submit the declaration on Dec. 31 of last year.  It did not, and forward progress stumbled for months amid a dispute over the scope of nuclear information to be addressed in the report.  Pyongyang and Washington appeared to reach a compromise in April, after which the regime released more than 18,000 pages of documents regarding its plutonium operations. The declaration is primarily expected to address production and stockpiling of weapon-usable plutonium at North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex, AFP reported.  The compromise reportedly requires Pyongyang only to “acknowledge” U.S. suspicions regarding uranium enrichment and nuclear proliferation activities. Once it has the declaration in hand, the Bush administration appears prepared to remove North Korea from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism and issue a waiver for the Trading with the Enemy Act. North Korea has also offered to blow up the cooling tower at Yongbyon as a symbol of its good intentions, a South Korean Foreign Ministry official told Yonhap.  However, it wants to be paid for the demolition. “North Korea is demanding money from the U.S. and other related nations for destroying the cooling tower,” the official said. Negotiators from Japan, South Korea and the United States — who met this week in Tokyo — hope the next full round of negotiations will occur during the first week of July, sources told Yonhap.  Envoys hope to move the process toward the third and final stage of denuclearization — actual dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear infrastructure (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, June 20). Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura suggested today his government would accept the declaration even if it does not provide a comprehensive view of North Korea’s nuclear operations, AFP reported. “The Japanese government believes that a complete declaration is necessary for complete abolition” of North Korea’s nuclear weapons,” he said.  “But there’s a view that it’s better to ease the stalemate and move forward, even by lowering (the hurdle) for the sake of reaching our goal of denuclearization” (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, June 10). Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to travel to China and South Korea at the end of this month for talks on the North Korea issue and other matters, AFP reported.  The visits would follow Rice’s participation at the Group of Eight foreign ministers’ summit in Japan (Lachlan Carmichael, Agence France-Presse III/Yahoo!News, June 19). Back to top       Pakistan Resists Renewed Study of Khan Network Pakistan sought yesterday to quash any efforts to revive an investigation into the black market network once led by the nation’s top nuclear scientist, and U.S. officials appeared to back that strategy, according to news reports (see GSN, June 18). A report released Monday by the Institute for Science and International Security has triggered renewed interest in the smuggling ring that Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan confessed to leading.  In recent weeks, Khan has recanted his 2004 confession, saying that Iran, Libya and North Korea acquired uranium enrichment technology from Western suppliers (see GSN, June 4). The ISIS report indicated that warhead designs had been found on computers seized from a number of Khan associates outside Pakistan.  The designs were reportedly for a weapon small enough to deploy on a ballistic missile. Pakistan indicated yesterday that it would not conduct any further investigations into Khan and it denied any knowledge of the warhead designs. “As far as Pakistan is concerned, the A.Q. Khan episode is closed.  There will be no repeat of it,” said Nadeem Kiani, spokesman for the Pakistani Embassy in Washington, in a USA Today commentary. “Pakistan carried out a thorough debriefing of all involved and shared details with the International Atomic Energy Agency and friends such as the United States.  The network, as much as it was in Pakistan's jurisdiction, was shut down.  The international community, including the United States, has taken steps to shut down other parts of that illegal nuclear proliferation network,” he said.  “Since then, Pakistan has implemented a series of measures, many in consultation with countries such as the United States, to ensure airtight proliferation controls. “Pakistan has no knowledge of the design of a compact nuclear weapon, reportedly found in some computers,” Kiani added (Nadeem Kiani, USA Today, June 19). In Islamabad, the Foreign Ministry denied that any Pakistani nuclear-weapon designs had been allowed out of the country. “No foreigner has any access to Pakistan’s nuclear designs.  It is not understood how anyone could reach such a conclusion,” said a ministry statement released today (Pakistani Foreign Ministry release, June 20). U.S. officials have cautiously backed the Pakistani position while leaving open the possibility of accepting new information about Khan’s smuggling efforts. “The A.Q. Khan network, about which we’re continuing to learn more, is at least out of the business,” U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday (U.S. State Department release, June 19). “At least [she was] recognizing that they didn’t have all the answers on the Khan network,” David Albright, author of the ISIS report, told Agence France-Presse. Nevertheless, he remained skeptical that the Bush administration would vigorously pursue the question of who might have acquired the warhead designs. “I'm not very optimistic," Albright said yesterday.  “I haven't talked to U.S. government people about this. ... My main motivation was just to let people know about this and that a public discussion could put pressure on the U.S. government. “But I don't know if it has (raised pressure).  So far they're reacting as if they don't want to hear the information," he added. Albright expressed concern that the recent loosening of restrictions over Khan’s house arrest in Islamabad could eventually lead to his freedom. “That sends a pretty terrible signal if you're trying to deter people from being little Khans or duplicate what Khan did," he said.  “The signal that the U.S. unfortunately helps send is that there isn't a lot of punishment if you do these things” (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, June 19). One U.S. official, however, said Washington would urge Pakistan to keep Khan in custody. “We have always expressed our belief that anyone associated with this network should not be free to be able to walk the streets and engage in either continued proliferation activities, or to try and restart anything that might be there,” State Department spokesman Tom Casey said yesterday (Hindustan Times, June 19). Back to top       Israeli Military Exercise Appears Aimed at Iran U.S. officials believe that a large-scale Israeli military exercise this month was intended as preparation for launching long-range strikes against Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, June 20). The exercise over Greece and the eastern Mediterranean Sea involved more than 100 Israeli F-15 and F-16 fighter jets as well as refueling tankers and rescue helicopters, according to several U.S. officials.  The officials noted that the distance covered by the tankers and helicopters is similar to the distance separating Israel from the Natanz uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. In addition to practicing military maneuvers, one U.S. Defense Department official said, the drill was intended to inform the United States and other nations that Israel could take military action should Iran continue to engage in nuclear activities that could support nuclear weapons development. “They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know and they wanted the Iranians to know,” the official said.  “There’s a lot of signaling going on at different levels.” However, several U.S. officials believe the drill is not a sign of Israeli resolve to attack Iran or of an imminent strike. An Israeli military spokesman said only that the nation’s air force “regularly trains for various missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel.” Seemingly preparing to defend itself against a possible attack from Israel, Iran has boosted its number of air patrols and in one case dispatched F-4 jets to intercept an Iraqi passenger aircraft traveling from Baghdad to Tehran.  Tehran has also recently received two advanced Russian radar systems that could help its military to track low-altitude aircraft, and U.S. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell said in February that Iran could soon acquire SA-20 air-defense interceptors from Moscow. “They are clearly nervous about this and have their air defense on guard,” one Bush administration insider said of Iranian officials.  U.S. military officials added that the SA-20 systems would increase pressure on Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities before Tehran finishes installing the air defenses. U.S. experts have cautioned that air strikes are unlikely to eviscerate Iran’s nuclear work because the country maintains underground nuclear facilities as well as possible clandestine sites.  An attack would delay Iran’s nuclear progress, they said, but causing the greatest possible damage to the program would require repeated waves of attacks that experts do not consider Israel capable of conducting (Gordon/Schmitt, New York Times, June 20). Martin Van Creveld, a military analyst at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, agreed that Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iran, the Associated Press reported. "Israel has been talking about this possibility for a long time, that it would not take an Iranian nuclear weapon lying down.  And it has been practicing the operation or operations for a long time.” Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in an interview published Wednesday that the current international financial penalties against Iran alone are unlikely to pressure the state to halt its disputed nuclear work. “Many things … can be done economically, politically, diplomatically and militarily” to address the Iranian nuclear threat, Der Spiegel quoted Olmert as saying. When questioned about Israel’s ability to attack Iran, he said:  "Israel always has to be in a position to defend itself against any adversary and against any threat of any kind" (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, June 20). In Tehran, a high-level Iranian cleric today said that Iran would retaliate against any Israeli attack, Agence France-Presse reported. "If enemies, especially Israelis and their supporters in the United States, would want to use a language of force, they should rest assured that they will receive a strong blow in the mouth," Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, June 20). Retaliation to a strike involving the United States could involve attacks on U.S. troops and interests by Tehran’s allies such as Hezbollah as well as Iranian networks in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Christian Science Monitor reported today. Iran could even order attacks around the world in response to a sufficiently large strike, according to Magnus Ranstorp of the Swedish National Defense College’s Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies. "One very important issue from a U.S. intelligence perspective, (the Iranian reaction) is probably more unpredictable than the al-Qaeda threat," Ranstorp said. "I doubt very much our ability to manage some of the consequences," he said (Scott Petersen, Christian Science Monitor, June 20). In Belgium, pressure by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown to impose new economic penalties against Iran was negated yesterday by widespread concern about rising oil and food prices, AP reported. Brown had pledged this week that the European Union would begin moving toward a “new phase of sanctions on oil and gas.” However, representatives at an EU summit yesterday did not formally discuss the Iranian nuclear impasse, according to the spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana.  Diplomats said it could take months for the European Union to place new sanctions on Iran despite high levels of support for stiff new penalties in many individual EU countries (Paul Ames, Associated Press II/International Herald Tribune, June 19). EU officials are concerned that moving to isolate Iran’s energy sector could drive up fuel prices across the continent. "There are no good options with regard to sanctions on oil and gas in Iran," said Mark Thomas at the Royal United Services Institute in Qatar.  "With oil prices as they are it's not even an option” (Angela Charlton, Associated Press III/International Herald Tribune, June 20). Meanwhile, the United States yesterday said it would release frozen financial assets of the China Great Wall Industry Corp. and G.W. Aerospace, the company’s U.S. branch, AFP reported (see GSN, June 14, 2006). The Treasury Department blacklisted the firms two years ago for supplying components for Iranian missile development (Agence France-Presse II/Google News, June 19). Back to top       U.S. House Passes Nuclear Forensics Bill The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday approved a bill that would attempt to bolster the country’s ability to trace sources of nuclear material used in attacks or seized from nuclear smugglers, U.S. Representative Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said (see GSN, March 25). Nuclear materials bear elemental signatures related to their sites of origin, but attribution capabilities are restricted by the lack of information regarding nuclear stockpiles and reactors in other nations and the unfinished development of necessary technology, Schiff said. If signed into law, the Nuclear Forensics and Attribution Act would boost the Homeland Security Department’s current work to collect nuclear forensics data and to develop related technology.   The bill would designate the department’s National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center as the coordinating agency for government forensics efforts and the recruitment of scientists and technicians as forensics specialists (see GSN, Feb. 20).  It would also charge the president with promoting international nuclear forensics-related cooperation. “If we can determine the source of the nuclear material, we can better attack smuggling networks and plug the security holes that allow deadly material to be obtained in the first place,” Schiff, the legislation’s sponsor, said in a statement.  “Nuclear states like North Korea may be deterred from transferring nuclear material if they know it can be traced back to them” (U.S. Representative Adam Schiff release, June 18). Back to top       IAEA Received Nuclear Intel on Syria, Report Says Various nations have supplied the International Atomic Energy Agency with intelligence supporting the U.S. contention that Syria was building a nuclear reactor at a secluded site bombed by Israel last September, Le Monde reported yesterday (see GSN, June 19) The supporting evidence includes satellite imagery and information from an IAEA probe of nuclear operations in North Korea, the Stalinist nation suspected of aiding construction of the Syrian facility, Agence France-Presse quoted the French news daily as saying. Gregory Schulte, U.S. envoy to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, said Syria struggled to hide evidence of the reactor as it cleaned up the remains of the bombed building at al-Kibar.  "Much of the work took place at night or under the cover of tarpaulins," he told the IAEA governing board earlier this month. Damascus maintains that the facility in question was not nuclear in nature. "Syria's obfuscation and concealment efforts raise many troubling questions,” Schulte said.  If the reactor was intended to help produce nuclear energy, "why go to such lengths to cover up its clandestine activities?  What does Syria have to hide?" Other members of the governing board also expressed concern about Syria’s alleged nuclear work.  Agency investigators are scheduled to visit Syria for three days beginning Sunday; their report is expected to be considered at the board’s next regular meeting in September. "We expect the Syrians to provide the IAEA with all the access it requests," one EU diplomat told AFP (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, June 20). Back to top

Hospitals Face Cuts in U.S. Biodefense Budget Funding to prepare hospitals for an act of biological terrorism or a natural disease outbreak faces a steep reduction in the next fiscal year, a leading U.S. scientific organization said yesterday (see GSN, April 16). The proposed biological defense budget for fiscal 2009 cuts $60 million from hospital preparedness programs, a drop of 15 percent from this fiscal year, said Alan Pearson, head of the Biological and Chemical Weapons Control Program at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation in Washington. The proposed cut comes amid continuing reductions in hospital beds and emergency departments, notably in cities and at academic health sites, according to the American Association for the Advancement of Science.  “Many hospitals remain unprepared for either deliberate terrorist attacks or major disease outbreaks,” the organization said in a press release. “Unless we address the critical issue of hospital overcrowding, our ability to respond to any sort of biological attack is going to be severely limited,” Eric Toner, a senior associate at the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Biosecurity, said during a June 12 event on Capitol Hill.  He noted, however, improvements in planning, drills and communications at medical facilities in the wake of the 2001 anthrax attacks. Pearson characterized stated and local preparedness programs as the other “big loser” in the biodefense budget.  Those initiatives face a $140 million, or 18 percent, reduction. “Funding for these activities has been slowly but steadily declining since fiscal 2003,” Pearson said at the June 12 briefing.  “It remains to be seen whether annual funding in fiscal 2010 will return to the fiscal 2008 level, or continue at the lower fiscal 2009 level.” Fiscal 2009 begins Oct. 1. The total biological defense budget is proposed at $8.97 billion, an increase of $2.5 billion from the amount allocated this year.  Much of that increase comes from the release of $2.18 billion for Project Bioshield, the U.S. program to develop and acquire countermeasures for biological and other WMD agents. The “winners” in the budget, according to Pearson, would be research and development, which would see a $330 million, or 10 percent, boost; surveillance and detection, set to receive an additional $114 million; and prevention, which would see a 15-percent budget hike of $32 million. Funding is being directed more toward “biosecurity” programs — addressing terrorism and well as natural outbreaks, food contamination and other unintentional incidents — as opposed to “biodefense,” which emphasizes terrorist acts, Pearson said (American Association for the Advancement of Science release, June 19). Back to top       U.K. Reopens 1978 Ricin Murder Investigation The United Kingdom has launched a new investigation into a Cold War-era murder in which a modified umbrella was used to implant a toxic ricin pellet into the leg of a Bulgarian exile living in London, the London Independent reported (see GSN, Jan. 8, 2003). Officers from Scotland Yard last month traveled to Sofia, Bulgaria, where they requested archived information on the 1978 killing of Georgi Markov and sought interviews with 40 people connected to the case, according to the Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik,.  Among those is former Bulgarian secret police chief Vladimir Todorov, who was imprisoned for 10 months in 1992 for destroying case documents. Last month’s trip by British investigators followed earlier visits to Bulgaria in March and April 2007. "This inquiry remains open and has been a particularly complex investigation,” said a Scotland Yard spokesman.  “We continue to work with the appropriate international authorities to investigate any new information that is passed or made available to police.” Andrey Tsvetanov, Bulgarian police investigator for the case, told Dnevnik:  “We are fully cooperating with our colleagues and are having a 100 percent exchange of information on both sides — something we lacked in the past.  We can now talk about a real investigation and analysis of the case.  I hope that our collaboration will help exhaust all case scenarios.” Former KGB officials have said that the agency produced the material used to kill Markov and that Bulgarian agents carried out the assassination. Bulgaria’s 30-year statute of limitations arrives in September (Jonathan Brown, London Independent, June 20). Back to top

Pentagon Ordered to Speed CW Disposal in Colorado The Colorado Health Department has issued a mandatory directive Wednesday requiring the U.S. Defense Department to move quickly on disposal of chemical weapons stored in the state, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 24). Roughly 2,600 tons of mustard agent is stored at the Pueblo Chemical Depot.  Preliminary construction is under way on a weapons destruction facility, which might not finish operations until 2021.  Congress has ordered that all U.S. chemical weapons be eliminated by 2017. Limited funding is a primary obstacle to meet earlier schedules, according to the Pentagon. “The reason Defense doesn’t have enough money to destroy the gas that remains at … depots around the nation is that it is spending the money elsewhere,” said Health Department spokeswoman Jeannine Natterman.  “They absolutely must obey” the state order. The Pentagon has yet to receive the order, according to spokeswoman Kathy DeWeese.  “Legal staff will address the question of the legality once they get a copy,” she said. However, the Defense Department said in a prepared statement that it intends by the end of this month to provide lawmakers with a report on strategies for finishing off the U.S. chemical arsenal between 2012 and 2017, AP reported. The Pentagon and the Pueblo Chemical Depot “share with all Colorado citizens the desire to have the Pueblo stockpile destroyed as safely and expeditiously as possible,” according to the statement (Robert Weller, Associated Press I/Examiner, June 18). Meanwhile, the Oregon Environmental Quality Commission yesterday approved resumed use of incineration to destroy secondary waste from chemical weapons disposal at the Umatilla Chemical Depot, AP reported.  Waste disposal stopped following a successful court challenge from an environmental watchdog group.  However, a state risk assessment report found there was little threat to human health or the environment in using existing incinerators to destroy protective suits, rags and other material. Other options for waste elimination would have been construction of a new incinerator, using a different system or transporting the items to another location for disposal. The commission is set in August to decide how to deal with mercury found in 430 bulk containers of mustard agent set for incineration.  Options being considered include placing filters on the existing incinerators, using a chemical and biological neutralization system or detonating the material within a closed containment device (Jeff Barnard, Associated Press II/KGW.com, June 20). Back to top

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