Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

    Issue for Thursday, July 10, 2008

    Week in Review

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  nuclear  
North Korea Denuclearization Talks Resume Full Story
Critics Question Indian Nuclear Inspections Text Full Story
Senate Lawmakers Reject New U.S. Warhead Full Story
Co-Leader Named for New Nonproliferation Group Full Story
Recent Stories

  biological  
Irish Woman Convicted in Murder-for-Hire Case Full Story
Recent Stories

  chemical  
New U.S. Weapon Could Face Treaty Problems Full Story
Mustard Agent Used in Assassination of Former Chilean President, Forensics Expert Claims Full Story
Recent Stories

  missile1  
Iran Continues Missile Tests Full Story
U.S. Official Calls Iran Missile Test “Reckless” Full Story
Recent Stories

 

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Iran has a kind of hedgehog strategy — mess with me and you get stung.
—U.S. Deputy National Intelligence Director Thomas Fingar, after Iran launched nine missiles during military exercises this week.


Lead negotiators from six nations posed today at North Korean nuclear talks in Beijing (Greg Baker/Getty Images).
Lead negotiators from six nations posed today at North Korean nuclear talks in Beijing (Greg Baker/Getty Images).
North Korea Denuclearization Talks Resume

Diplomats from six nations came together for the first time in nine months today for talks aimed at permanently shuttering North Korea’s nuclear operations, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 9)...Full Story

Iran Continues Missile Tests

Iran conducted shore-to-sea, sea-to-air and surface-to-surface missile tests in the Persian Gulf today, continuing a wave of launches amid rising speculation of an imminent strike against the nation’s nuclear facilities, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, July 9)...Full Story

U.S. Official Calls Iran Missile Test “Reckless”

By Elaine M. Grossman
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A top U.S. State Department official yesterday branded Iran’s long-range missile tests as “very disturbing, provocative and reckless” (see GSN, July 9)...Full Story

Current Issue Thursday, July 10, 2008
nuclear

North Korea Denuclearization Talks Resume


Diplomats from six nations came together for the first time in nine months today for talks aimed at permanently shuttering North Korea’s nuclear operations, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 9).

Years of negotiations led to Pyongyang’s pledge last year to pursue denuclearization in exchange for economic, diplomatic and security benefits from China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States.  After some progress, including the suspension of operations at the Yongbyon nuclear complex and disablement activities at three key facilities, the process faltered this year after North Korea failed to produce a mandatory declaration of its nuclear activities and holdings.

The regime last month finally submitted the document, which reportedly details its plutonium operations while largely avoiding specifics on suspected uranium enrichment and nuclear proliferation activities.  That move, along with destruction of the reactor cooling tower at Yongbyon, opened the door for at least three days of talks this week in Beijing.

“I want to emphasize that all of us gathered here share the same strategic objectives,” Chinese negotiator Wu Dawei said as the meeting began.  “The ultimate objective is the realization of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.”

Recent progress has “led us to believe that if we work together, stick to the guidelines and concepts, honor our commitments, the strategic goals will undoubtedly be realized,” Wu said.

The talks this week are expected to focus on measures to verify information included in the nuclear declaration.  Verification “will take several weeks or even months,” said Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, lead U.S. envoy to the six-nation negotiations.

North Korea reportedly claimed to hold less than 40 kilograms of weapon-usable plutonium.  That is significantly less than previous U.S. estimates (Kwang-Tae Kim, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 10).

Completion of verification would be a primary step to finishing the second phase of the 2007 denuclearization agreement.  The third phase would theoretically involve full nuclear dismantlement and disarmament by North Korea.

“I think we have an understanding of where we need to be because we are looking to wrap up a lot of steps in phase two,” Hill said today.  “We are looking to wrap that up in the fall” (Jun Kwanwoo, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 10).

During the third phase of denuclearization, North Korea might demand “joint verification of nuclear programs in South Korea as well, to a provision of [a] light-water reactor and further steps to normalize relations with Washington,” Dongguk University professor Koh Yoo-hwan told the Korea Herald (Lee Joo-hee, Korea Herald, July 10).

The Stalinist state might also choose to wait for the next U.S. president in January before making any more significant moves forward, the Los Angeles Times reported.

“Don’t expect smooth sailing,” said Joseph Cheng, a professor at City University in Hong Kong.

Pyongyang is infamous for negotiating tactics that include reversals of previous promises and demands for quick rewards.  The regime, in fact, recently complained about the pace at which it is receiving the aid promised under the denuclearization pact.

The Bush administration is not likely to offer additional concessions, after being lashed by conservatives for recently lifting some trade sanctions from North Korea and moving to take the regime off the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, experts said.

Bush and other leaders in the six-party talks are also in weak political positions.  The U.S. president has just six months left in his term, while the leaders of Japan and South Korea have experienced significant drops in support in their respective homes.

There is reason to doubt that Pyongyang has come clean about its nuclear operations, analysts said.

“There’s nobody in the world who trusts that North Korea will provide information on all its nuclear materials,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor at People’s University in Beijing.

North Korea, though, could give the impression of continued cooperation and extend the talks by offering some details on uranium enrichment or nuclear support for nations such as Syria and Pakistan.

“It shouldn’t be difficult for North Korea to deliver something,” Cheng said (Mark Magnier, Los Angeles Times, July 10).


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Critics Question Indian Nuclear Inspections Text


A draft agreement to allow international supervision of India’s civilian nuclear activities has some ambiguities and omissions that should be corrected, critics of a planned U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal said yesterday (see GSN, July 9).

The draft was circulated yesterday to the 35 nations of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors, which could convene later this month to discuss, and possibly approve, the safeguards agreement.

The 23-page document outlines the rights of the agency to monitor Indian civilian facilities as part of the trade deal that would enable New Delhi to purchase nuclear materials and technologies that have been withheld by foreign suppliers for more than 30 years.  Resumed trade also depends on India receiving an exemption from nuclear trade rules set by the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group.

The draft distributed yesterday contains a key phrase that could allow India to wriggle out of safeguards in the future, Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, told the Associated Press.

The language says India “may take corrective measures to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the even of disruption of foreign supply.”  The issue has been a hot-button topic, as Indian leaders have expressed concern that their plans for a major expansion of nuclear power production could be vulnerable to policy changes in the nations that sell nuclear fuel to India.

“The [IAEA] board should ask what ‘corrective measures’ are supposed to mean,” Kimball said.  “It could mean, ‘We will withdraw from safeguards those facilities that we need to withdraw from and we will use in those facilities other, unsupervised fuel sources.’”

In addition, the draft safeguards agreement includes an empty annex to identify the sites that would be subject to IAEA supervision, an omission Kimball said should be rectified.

“It matters which facilities you are placing under safeguards because some of India’s facilities have greater or lesser relevance to its (military) nuclear program,” he said.  “It is standard practice for the Board of Governors to understand which facilities are covered” (George Jahn, Associated Press/Google News, July 9).

When the board does agree to consider the agreement, the members would probably approve it, another nonproliferation expert told Reuters.

“There is no doubt the board will approve the deal,” said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.  “There will be a range of national statements, some with tongue clucking, but no real debate.”

The United States today praised the document and promised to work for its approval and for implementation of the larger trade deal.

“We welcome India's willingness to move forward with this historic initiative, which is part of the strategic partnership envisioned by President (George W.) Bush and Prime Minister (Manmohan) Singh," said Gregory Schulte, U.S. ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency.  “The initiative will help strengthen the global nonproliferation regime and help India meet its growing energy demands in an environmentally friendly way.”

“There is much that needs to be done.  The next step is IAEA board review,” he added.  “We will work with India, our Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) partners and the U.S. Congress to ensure the initiative is implemented as expeditiously as possible” (Mark Heinrich, Reuters I, July 10).

Meanwhile, Indian political leaders have begun talks to schedule a vote of confidence for the parliamentary coalition headed by Singh, Reuters reported yesterday.  Four parties critical of the nuclear deal have withdrawn their backing for the coalition, but Singh has lined up replacement support.

The new backing would come with a slimmer — and perhaps uncertain — majority, however, leading the newly withdrawn groups to demand the confidence vote.  Should Singh lose the vote, early elections would be called.

Indian President Pratibha Patil said yesterday she would meet with Singh today “to have his views on these developments” (Alistair Scrutton, Reuters II/Washington Post, July 9).


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Senate Lawmakers Reject New U.S. Warhead


A U.S. Senate panel this week rejected a Bush administration effort to develop a new nuclear warhead while supporting more funding for nuclear laboratory activities than House lawmakers approved earlier this year, the Albuquerque Journal reported (see GSN, May 23).

The Senate Appropriations Energy and Water Subcommittee zeroed a $10 million administration request for the Reliable Replacement Warhead, reaffirming last year’s congressional rejection of the program.  Warhead advocates have argued that the new design would enable the United States to decrease its nuclear arsenal more rapidly because the nation would need a smaller reserve stockpile if there were greater confidence in those warheads (see GSN, March 6).

Critics, however, have questioned both the need for new weapons and the effect such a program would have on other nations’ nuclear ambitions (see GSN, Feb. 14).  U.S. House appropriators also zeroed the administration request earlier this year (see GSN, June 26).

The Senate subcommittee did support more funds for the nation’s nuclear laboratories, setting up a conflict with House lawmakers later this year.

The House has eliminated a request for a new plutonium laboratory at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, but the Senate subcommittee provided $125 million.  In addition, the House rejected a request for funds to ramp up a facility to build the plutonium cores of nuclear weapons at Los Alamos, while the Senate subcommittee provided $145 million, the Journal reported.

Overall, the subcommittee approved nearly $600 million for nuclear weapon programs and $300 million for weapon maintenance, according to the Journal.

“I think we’re going to come out all right,” said Senator Pete Domenici (R-N.M.), working on his final Energy Department funding bill before retiring.  “The House obviously has taken a different approach, and that’s their prerogative.  But we’re in great shape coming out of (the Senate).”

Subcommittee Chairman Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) expressed hope that the final congressional bill would keep the higher funding levels for the laboratories.

“They are America’s jewels, they are the seat bed of new science, new inquiry, new discovery and new research,” he said.  “At some point, we’ll need to develop some kind of stabilization plan for funding these national jewels” (Coleman/Fleck, Albuquerque Journal, July 9).


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Co-Leader Named for New Nonproliferation Group


A former Japanese foreign minister has been named to help lead a new commission intended to set the agenda for the upcoming Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty review conference in 2010, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, June 9).

Meeting at the Group of Eight summit this week, the prime ministers of Japan and Australia selected Yoriko Kawaguchi to co-chair the International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament.

Former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans has already been named to help lead the body, which was first proposed by Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd during a June visit to Japan. 

Rudd has said that the two nations could take on considerable nonproliferation responsibilities.  Australia possesses the greatest known quantities of uranium and Japan has an established nuclear energy sector.

The new commission was suggested amid increasing signs that the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty regime has weakened since its entry into force in 1970.  The treaty sought to limit nuclear-weapon possession to China, France, the United Kingdom, the United States and what was then the Soviet Union, but India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan have since acquired their own atomic arsenals (Agence France-Presse/Google News, July 9).


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biological

Irish Woman Convicted in Murder-for-Hire Case


A 45-year-old Irish woman has been found guilty of attempting to have her partner and his two sons killed by use of the lethal toxin ricin in 2006, the Irish Times reported today (see GSN, June 24).

Following an eight-week trial,  the jury deliberated for nearly eight hours before convicting Sharon Collins of plotting the murders of P.J., Robert and Niall Howard.

The jury could not reach a verdict over co-defendant Essam Eid’s alleged role as the contract killer, but the Nevada resident was found guilty of threatening Robert Howard and demanding a payoff of $157,000.  He was exonerated of breaking into Robert Howard’s office but convicted of holding items stolen from the office.

Prosecutors had contended that the two defendants connected through a Web site and that Eid, 52, suggested using a toxin to induce heart attacks in the two sons.  He was said to have demanded $90,000 to carry out the three murders, and Collins mailed nearly $24,000 in August 2006 as part of an alleged down payment. 

Eid was arrested after arriving in Ireland and making contact with Robert Howard.  Authorities found ricin traces inside a contact lens case in Eid’s prison cell in April 2007.

The judge in the case ordered that both defendants be detained until their scheduled sentencing in October (Irish Times, July 10).


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chemical

New U.S. Weapon Could Face Treaty Problems


A secret new U.S. Army weapon intended as a nonlethal incapacitant might violate the Chemical Weapons Convention, depending on what sort of material it releases, the London Guardian reported today (see GSN, June 11, 2007).

The XM1063 is a “nonlethal personal suppression projectile” with a range of more than 17 miles when fired from a 155 mm howitzer.  The artillery shell would release 152 smaller projectiles, each of which would disperse a chemical as it headed toward earth.

The material is intended to “suppress” individuals without causing injury and to bring vehicles to a halt within a 100-meter area.  However, the type of agent involved remains a tightly held secret.

The payload is probably not a known riot-control agent such as CS or pepper spray, as their effects wear off in a matter of minutes.  Such a weapon in military hands could also contravene the Chemical Weapons Convention’s prohibition against use of riot-control agents in warfare, according to the Guardian.

That leaves antitraction material, a malodorant or a previously unknown agent as the most likely choices, the Guardian reported.

Research on an antitraction agent — intended to make areas so slippery that people and equipment cannot move through them — appears to be in the preliminary stages, making it an unlikely component of a weapon that has already been tested.

The U.S. Defense Department has spent years trying to develop malodorants, agents that would incapacitate through an overwhelming stink.  One expert, though, questioned whether the case could be made that such materials should not be considered chemical warfare agents.

“That argument rests on the assumption that there are no other toxic effects of these chemicals, and that one can control the dose so that one never crosses into the dose range for toxic effects,” said arms control and disarmament consultant Ralf Trapp.  “It is also based [on] a concept of toxicity that is centuries out of date — malodorants do have a physiological effect and toxicity is not limited to lethality.”

The Pentagon finished testing the XM1063 in 2007 and could begin production next year, the Guardian reported.  The program manager will determine when and if manufacturing of the weapon would begin, according to the Army Armament Research, Development and Engineering Center (David Hambling, London Guardian, July 10).


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Mustard Agent Used in Assassination of Former Chilean President, Forensics Expert Claims


A cocktail of mustard agent and other toxic chemicals was used to assassinate former Chilean President Eduardo Frei Montalva in 1982, a forensics expert said yesterday  (see GSN, Jan. 23, 2007).

Hospital officials said at the time that complications from a hernia operation had killed Frei Montalva, who served as Chile’s president from 1964 to 1970, the McClatchy-Tribune News Service reported.

Carmen Cerda, who heads a team of forensics specialists investigating the death, did not speculate on a possible killer in a statement to the Chilean Supreme Court.  However, top officials in Frei Montalva’s Christian Democrat party blamed the regime of then-Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet.

According to previous inquiries, officials from administrations that preceded Pinochet’s rule are known to have been killed under order from the dictator.

Frei Montalva’s son, Chilean senator and former president Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle, said he had no doubt that his father had been assassinated and called for an investigation into the “intellectual authors” of the killing. 

"There were organisms like the Chilean army that dedicated themselves to producing chemicals, protochemicals and gases to eliminate people. … Unfortunately, they were also used on President Frei," Frei Ruiz-Tagle told the country’s parliament yesterday.

The judge in the case said he had not yet reached a verdict and called assumptions about the death “premature” (Chang/Hughes, McClatchy-Tribune, July 9).


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missile1

Iran Continues Missile Tests


Iran conducted shore-to-sea, sea-to-air and surface-to-surface missile tests in the Persian Gulf today, continuing a wave of launches amid rising speculation of an imminent strike against the nation’s nuclear facilities, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, July 9).

Iranian state media reported that the weapons fired today included a high-speed Hoot torpedo as well as additional “longer and medium-range missiles.”  The state broadcast did not specify the exact site or time of the launches.

Yesterday, Iran launched eight medium-range missiles and a Shahab 3 ballistic missile said to be capable of hitting Israel and U.S. military targets in the Middle East, AFP reported.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the United States is prepared to respond to an attack.

"We will defend American interests and the interests of our allies.  We take very strongly our obligation to defend our allies and we intend to do that," Rice told journalists.

However, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that an actual attack is unlikely.

"The reality is there is a lot of signaling going on, but everybody recognizes what the consequences of any kind of a conflict would be,” Gates said (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, July 10).

He said Iran’s Shahab 3 test demonstrated advances in the country’s missile capabilities.

"This certainly addresses the doubts raised by the Russians that the Iranians won't have a longer-range ballistic missile for 10 years to 20 years,” he said.  "The fact is they've just tested a missile that has pretty extended range” (Associated Press/CBS News, July 10).

Gates added that the tests demonstrate the need for missile defenses that the United States is pushing to deploy in Europe, CNN reported.

"We've been saying as we talk about missile defense in Europe that there is a real threat, and the test this morning underscores it," he said.

The tests were intended to send a defensive message, said Deputy National Intelligence Director Thomas Fingar.  "Iran has a kind of hedgehog strategy — mess with me and you get stung," he said, adding that the exercises were meant to show Iran’s “capacity to inflict pain." (CNN, July 9).

The United States yesterday denounced Iran’s Shahab 3 missile launch, as did France, Germany and the United Kingdom, AFP reported .

“What we have just seen underlines the need for Iran to comply with its international obligations on the nuclear issue,” said the British Foreign Office (Agence France-Presse II/Google News, July 9).

Doug Richardson, the editor of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets, said the Shahab 3 missile tested yesterday was probably a version of the weapon modified to have an extra long range, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.

“The Shahab 3 exists — to the best of our knowledge — in three versions,” he said.  “The basic missile had a range of about [800 miles]; then they did a longer range version, which we call the Shahab 3A.  And that has a range of about [930 to 1,100 miles].”

“And we have also had reports of a Shahab 3B.  There's not much hard information about it. But we understand the range of that to be [1,250 to 1,550 miles].  So it sounds as if the recent test was a Shahab 3B.”

At the same time, Richardson noted the missile’s relative inaccuracy.

Iran “might hope to hit central Tel Aviv.  It would not be practical to say:  ‘We're going to hit the Israeli Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv.’  They don't have that kind of accuracy,” Richardson said.

A Shahab 3 missile armed with a conventional warhead would possess the approximate destructive power of a World War II-era German V-2 rocket, Richardson said.  However, he noted that Nazi Germany’s V-2 arsenal dwarfed the 30 to 50 Shahab 3 missiles Iran was thought to have in early 2006.

Richardson also addressed rumors that Iran is developing a next-generation missile.

“They were working on a bigger missile called the Shahab 4 and at one time they were insisting it wasn't a missile but a satellite launch vehicle,” he said.  “Then they announced it had been canceled.  But all we got out of there were shadowy rumors about what it allegedly was going to be.  We really don't have any hard information” (Jeremy Bransten, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 9).

Meanwhile, U.S. presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) yesterday said that the Iranian missile tests demonstrate the importance of engaging Tehran in bilateral dialogue, Reuters reported. 

"As these tests have reaffirmed, the threat from Iran's nuclear program is real and it is grave.  As president, I will do everything in my power to eliminate that threat, and that must begin with direct, aggressive and sustained diplomacy," he said in a statement.

Obama’s opponent, Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.), said that Washington already has strategies for communicating with Tehran and called for the United States to impose new sanctions on Iran and finish deploying the planned European missile defenses.

"We have lines of communications with the Iranians and they are many," McCain said. "Their behavior … has obviously not changed" (Steve Holland, Reuters, July 9).

Elsewhere, Agence France-Presse retracted a photograph of the tests released yesterday on grounds that it had been “apparently digitally altered” by its Iranian media source, the New York Times reported today.

The widely syndicated image released by the Revolutionary Guards’ publicity division shows four missiles being launched simultaneously.  Identical patterns in the smoke plumes left by separate missiles indicate that one of the missiles had been inserted digitally, according to the Times.

The Revolutionary Guards today released a second image identical to the first except for the absence of the missile in question.  Iran provided no explanation for the images (Nizza/Witty, New York Times, July 10).


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U.S. Official Calls Iran Missile Test “Reckless”

By Elaine M. Grossman
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A top U.S. State Department official yesterday branded Iran’s long-range missile tests as “very disturbing, provocative and reckless” (see GSN, July 9).

Tehran’s official news agency said the Wednesday test of a Shahab 3 missile with a roughly 1,200-mile range was “to demonstrate Iran’s capability in hitting its enemies accurately at the early stages of their probable attacks against the Islamic Republic.”  The weapon could “reach targets in the occupied lands,” said the news agency, referring to Israel.

The Shahab 3 was just one of a reported nine missiles Iran launched yesterday.  Tehran today followed with a second round of missile tests, which Iranian state-run media said included more long-range weapons capable of hitting Israel.  Some were said to have “special capabilities,” though the term was left undefined.

In testimony yesterday before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns depicted the first set of launches as Iran’s not-too-subtle bid to flex its military muscle, even as the Persian Gulf nation appears to be preparing to return to the negotiating table over its nuclear program.

The United States and its international partners are pushing Tehran to negotiate an agreement to suspend uranium enrichment activities that could be used to produce a nuclear weapon (see GSN, July 7).  Iran has maintained that its enrichment program is intended solely to produce nuclear energy.

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said this week he plans to meet with top Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili later this month to discuss interim “freeze” steps that could ultimately lead to enrichment suspension.  In exchange, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany — the so-called P-5+1 — would first freeze and then potentially suspend sanctions against Tehran.

“Sometimes [Iranian leaders] act in conflicting ways,” Burns testified.  “On the one hand, we see some positive noises about the proposals that Mr. Solana made.  And on the other hand, in recent days, we’ve seen not only the missile launch but some extremely reckless and pugnacious statements.”

Asked by committee member Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) if there were any significance to Tehran’s decision to use nine missiles during the Wednesday test sequence, Burns responded:  “Subtlety has never been a hallmark of Iranian behavior.  And it’s a way, it seems to me, of reinforcing a point they’re trying to make.”

That point, the diplomat said in written testimony, is Iran’s apparent desire to portray itself as a rising regional power.

Tehran seems to relish heightening concerns by promoting the illusion that Iran is on the ascendance,” said the State Department’s No. 3 official.  “However, Iran is not 10 feet tall, nor is it even the dominant regional actor. … Iran has no real friends anywhere that could offer strategic reassurance, vital investment, or a secure future in a globalized world.”

At the same time, “while Iran seeks to create the perception of advancement in its nuclear program, real progress has been more modest,” Burns testified.  “It is apparent that Iran has not yet perfected enrichment, and as a direct result of U.N. sanctions, Iran’s ability to procure technology or items of significance to its missile programs, even dual-use items, is being impaired.”

A U.S. intelligence estimate released last year found that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons research in 2003.  That has not allayed worries at the White House and on Capitol Hill regarding Tehran’s intentions.

“No one knows precisely when Iran will produce a nuclear bomb,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman (D-Calif.) said during yesterday during a hearing of his panel.   “But it will be soon.”

In his Senate testimony, Burns noted that sanctions legislation pending before that chamber could prove unhelpful at a critical juncture in talks with Iran.

The bill would require the United States to investigate and potentially penalize companies that invest more than $20 million in Iran’s energy sector.  U.S. companies or those in allied nations could be among those subject to sanctions under the proposed measures.

“It sounds good — it sounds like it’s a thing that would diminish the ability of the Iranians to be able to develop a nuclear weapons capacity,” said committee Chairman Joseph Biden (D-Del.).  “But how would passage of such legislation here affect, in your view, the administration’s efforts to keep the P-5+1 coalition together?”

As currently drafted, the measure “would complicate that effort,” Burns said, “precisely at the moment when we’re beginning to see a greater willingness — especially on the part of the European Union now under the French presidency — to take more assertive steps on economic sanctions.”  As an example of Europe’s readiness to move on its own to curb investment in Iran, he cited the recent EU move to freeze assets and prohibit business with Iran’s largest bank, Bank Melli.

Taken together with three U.N. Security Council resolutions condemning Iran’s nuclear program, the EU financial sanctions “undermine Iran’s ability to portray this problem as a bilateral one, and also weaken Iran’s argument that the U.S. and the West are isolated in this cause,” Burns testified.

U.S. exports to Iran have grown during President George W. Bush’s term, from roughly $8 million in 2001 to nearly $150 million in 2007, the Associated Press reported Tuesday.  Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (Ill.), the Democratic candidate for president, yesterday cited the figures in decrying “that kind of mixed signal that has led to the kind of situation that we’re in right now.”

Burns defended the administration record, testifying that the goods represent a tiny portion of Iran’s imports and reflect a U.S. policy aimed at sanctioning the government in Tehran, rather than the Iranian people.


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