The U.S. Navy is exploring the possibility of designing a new missile for converted Trident submarines, such as the USS Ohio, shown earlier this year (Choi Jae-ho/Getty Images). Navy Eyes New Weapon for Global Strike, Missile Defense By Elaine M. Grossman Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Navy is floating the idea of developing a new ballistic missile for global attack operations that could also be used as an interceptor in the nation’s evolving strategic missile defense system (see GSN, March 20)...Full Story

Rice Sought U.S. Shift on Joining Iranian Talks U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice led a drive within the Bush administration to send a high-level U.S. diplomat to attend multilateral nuclear talks with Iran scheduled for Saturday, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, July 16)...Full Story

Hill to Attend Informal North Korea Talks Next Week U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill yesterday said he plans to discuss terms for verifying North Korean denuclearization at an informal meeting in Singapore next week, the Yonhap news agency reported (see GSN, July 14)..Full Story

	Thursday, July 17, 2008

Medvedev Unveils Russian Foreign Policy Concept, Gives Prime Minister New Role in Foreign Affairs Russian President Dmitry Medvedev released a new foreign policy strategy this week that reaffirms many international security priorities of his predecessor — the current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin — and for the first time gives the prime minister the power to engage in foreign policy decisions, Moscow Times reported yesterday (see GSN, July 15). Medvedev signed the new document Saturday and promoted it Tuesday in a speech to Russian ambassadors (Simon Saradzhyan, Moscow Times, July 16). The policy aims to see Russia have a higher profile in international affairs as it rebounds from post-Cold War economic doldrums. “Having survived the Cold War, the world is still searching for a new equilibrium,” Medvedev said in his Tuesday speech advocating greater cooperation between Russia and the United States. “Only by working together and without double standards can we confront international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, drug trafficking, crime, global poverty, climate change and the spread of infectious diseases,” he said. Medvedev repeated earlier complaints about U.S. plans to deploy missile defenses in the Czech Republic and Poland as well as Washington’s assurances that the systems would not affect Russia’s military capability. “We strongly affirm that the deployment of elements of the global U.S. missile defense in Eastern Europe only exacerbates the situation. And I have already talked about this: we will be forced to respond to it in kind,” he said.  “Our American and European partners have also been warned about this. We are convinced that national security cannot simply be maintained on the basis of good faith.” The new Russian president, who took office in May, also expressed interest in reaching new arms control agreements to maintain limits on strategic nuclear weapons (see GSN, April 7), to universalize the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (see GSN, Oct. 12, 2007), and to ban weapons in space (see GSN, Feb. 14, 2007; Medvedev release, July 15). Back to top

Navy Eyes New Weapon for Global Strike, Missile Defense By Elaine M. Grossman Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Navy is floating the idea of developing a new ballistic missile for global attack operations that could also be used as an interceptor in the nation’s evolving strategic missile defense system (see GSN, March 20). While one variant of the proposed 40-inch ballistic missile could be deployed aboard four Ohio-class submarines the Navy recently converted for conventional missions (see GSN, Oct. 30, 2007), another variant might ride aboard Aegis cruiser ships to augment ground-based missile defenses, according to one senior service official. Speaking yesterday at a Capitol Hill breakfast on condition of not being named, the Navy official described a “Submarine-Launched Global Strike Missile” that could be built for the Defense Department’s emerging “prompt global strike” mission (see GSN, Sept. 18, 2007).  Under the broad concept, the United States could attack targets anywhere around the world within one hour of a launch order.  Currently, the United States does not field any conventional weapons with sufficient range and speed for the mission.  However, top defense officials say a growing number of high-priority, fleeting targets — such as terrorist leaders or rogue-nation WMD sites — make the development of prompt global strike weapons a pressing need. With an estimated 4,500-mile range, the Navy’s conceptual missile might offer nearly as much reach as the nuclear-tipped Trident D-5 missile deployed today on 14 Ohio-class submarines, noted the senior official.  Congress last year shelved the Pentagon’s proposal for arming some D-5s with conventional warheads, citing concerns that Russia or China might mistake a launch of the weapon for a nuclear attack and respond in kind. The Navy official yesterday took pains to emphasize that his service was not formally proposing to build the new design as a prompt global strike weapon, but rather was simply describing what the service could offer.  He referred to the concept as offering an “opportunity” to develop an intermediate-range missile. Still, in describing the idea, the official’s slide presentation responded to lawmaker concerns about the potential for nuclear vs. conventional missile launch “ambiguity.” If the Navy were to shoot the 40-inch missile from a converted submarine, there would be “immediately observable differences at launch,” distinguishable from a Trident D-5 weapon when viewed through infrared imaging, he said.  Moreover, just two rocket stages would propel the new conventional missile, whereas the nuclear-armed Trident D-5 uses three stages.  And the conventional weapon would deliver a single re-entry body, while a Trident D-5 typically launches multiple, independently targeted warheads, he said. Not everyone in the audience was convinced.  It could be that launching any type of ballistic missile from a stealthy Ohio-class submarine would run a substantial risk of international misinterpretation and might trigger a nuclear war, according to Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. “Although an intermediate-range missile is different from the D-5, it is still a ballistic missile, and we cannot be certain that adversaries will always be certain that it’s not nuclear,” he told GSN. For the missile defense mission, the senior Navy official said he could imagine the same 40-inch weapon deployed on cruisers, and perhaps even as a potential replacement for the interceptor deployed today as part of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system (see GSN, July 16). “We are in a position where we could shape missile defense — because it operates around this 40-inch size — and at the same time, we shape a prompt global strike [weapon],” he said.  “We may not choose to do that but we should look carefully at the engineering, because the industrial base advantages — and therefore the cost advantages and the training and the similarity — are certainly significant.” The official said he had not discussed the idea at length with the Missile Defense Agency nor was the service prepared to formally propose it at this time.  However, the Navy has begun contemplating possible options for both the offensive and defensive missions, and some officials are intrigued by the potential for procurement efficiencies, he said. Back to top       Rice Sought U.S. Shift on Joining Iranian Talks U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice led a drive within the Bush administration to send a high-level U.S. diplomat to attend multilateral nuclear talks with Iran scheduled for Saturday, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, July 16). The participation by U.S. Undersecretary of State William Burns marks a major shift from U.S. President George W. Bush’s long-standing refusal to negotiate with Iran unless Tehran first halts its uranium enrichment program, an effort that concerns Washington and other Western powers because it can produce a key nuclear weapon ingredient. At a Monday meeting with Bush, Burns and top White House officials, Rice made the case for engaging Iran at a time when the economic penalties appear to be taking a greater toll on the country and its Islamic government is expressing greater willingness to negotiate, the Post reported (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, July 17). According to one official, Rice had “decided it was a chance to press the advantage,” the New York Times reported today (Sciolino/Myers, New York Times, July 17). Bush administration officials were also uncomfortable with the option of allowing China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the European Union to negotiate with Iran over an offer of political and financial incentives without U.S. input, according to the Post.  The powers had offered Iran the incentives last month in exchange for the suspension of uranium enrichment, and the United States aims to continue pressing the demand. "The substance remains the same, but this is a new tactic. … What this does show is how serious we are when we say that we want to try to solve this diplomatically," said White House spokeswoman Dana Perino (Kessler, Washington Post). "Nothing has changed," she added.  "If [the Iranians] don't accept this offer, one, there will not be negotiations and two, there will be additional sanctions" (Dahl/Kalantari, Reuters/Washington Post, July 16). John Bolton, former U.S. envoy to the United Nations, questioned the decision.  "This is a complete capitulation on the whole idea of suspending enrichment," he said.  "Just when the administration has no more U-turns to pull, it does another." However, State Department adviser Philip Zelikow described the move as a logical step.  "For some time, we and our allies have been reflecting on ways to reinforce that basic approach while taking away some of the more superficial complaints about it.  This move does that. But the substantive position remains unchanged" (Kessler, Washington Post). EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who represents the European Union in Iranian nuclear negotiations, welcomed news that the United States plans to participate. “We are very pleased by the administration’s decision,” said Solana spokeswoman Cristina Gallach.  “It is a clear signal to the Iranians of the engagement of the United States and its commitment to a negotiated solution.  At the same time, it is a clear message to the Iranians of the seriousness of this exercise.” (Sciolino/Myers, New York Times). "I hope very much we will get constructive, positive answers to the documents that we sent to them," Solana said yesterday referring to the incentives proposal.  "I hope this will allow us to get engaged in meaningful negotiations" (Agence France-Presse I/Space War, July 16). However, France expressed skepticism that the talks would yield significant progress. "I'm hoping a lot will come from the meeting, but I have no concrete expectations," French Foreign Minster Benard Kouchner told journalists yesterday.  "It's too early to say whether there will be any progress," he said, adding that the planned U.S. presence at the talks is “good news” (Agence France-Presse II/Space War, July 17). Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei yesterday welcomed the nuclear talks while cautioning against coercion tactics. "Iran has decided to take part in negotiations but it will not accept any threat," Iranian state media quoted him as saying.  "Our red lines are clear and if the other parties respect the Iranian people, the dignity of the Islamic republic and these red lines, our officials will negotiate as long as no one makes any threats against Iran." Khamenei, who has the final word on all Iranian political decisions, also backed the nuclear rhetoric of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  One of Khamenei’s advisers recently implied criticism of the president’s remarks on the country’s nuclear work (see GSN, July 2). "The supreme national security council, headed by the president, is responsible on the nuclear question," Khamenei said.  “What the president and the officials say on the nuclear issue is the fruit of a consensus of all the country's officials” (Siavosh Ghazi, Agence France-Presse III/Google News, July 16). Meanwhile, the United States is planning to set up a diplomatic interests section in Tehran, the London Guardian reported. The section would be staffed by U.S. diplomats and carry out the functions of an embassy, but it would exist within Switzerland’s embassy in Iran. Iran already has an interests section based in Washington (Ewen MacAskill, London Guardian, July 17). Elsewhere, Secretary of State Rice on Tuesday discussed Iranian nuclear activities in a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, AFP reported. "On July 15, at the request of the American side, a telephone conversation took place between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a release (Agence France-Presse IV/Google News, July 16). Back to top       Hill to Attend Informal North Korea Talks Next Week U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill yesterday said he plans to discuss terms for verifying North Korean denuclearization at an informal meeting in Singapore next week, the Yonhap news agency reported (see GSN, July 14) Hill represented the United States on Saturday at a six-nation meeting that finalized general plans for shutting down North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex this year. "There will be some kind of six-party event in Singapore," he said, referring to the ASEAN regional conference set to begin in the country.  "We look forward to the verification discussion, but we haven’t worked out on when and how." U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, North Korean Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun and top foreign officials from the four other nations handling North Korean nuclear diplomacy plan to attend the ASEAN forum, but Hill said he was uncertain whether they would discuss North Korean denuclearization on the meeting’s sidelines. "I don’t know.  We are waiting for what the Chinese are saying," he said (Yonhap I/Daum, July 17). Elsewhere, former South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun yesterday said he would return classified government information taken to his private estate on computer hard drives before his term in office had ended. Current South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has sought in recent weeks to recover the electronic document collection, which is believed to contain closely guarded details about South Korea’s policy on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. “I’ll return all copies of (classified) documents to the government.  Regarding the method of return, I’ll accept the government’s choice,” Roh wrote in a letter to Lee.  “(The government) has already asked (the prosecution to open a probe on seven or eight of my aides.  Under such circumstances, I cannot resist any longer” (Yonhap News Agency II, July 17). Back to top       India Limits Planned IAEA Nuclear Briefing India has rolled back plans to hold a high-profile presentation at the International Atomic Energy Agency on a proposed inspection regime for Indian nuclear facilities, instead opting to brief only high-level IAEA officials and governing board representatives away from the agency’s headquarters in Vienna, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, July 16). The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s 35-nation governing board must endorse the inspections arrangement before New Delhi can seek to import nuclear fuel.  The board is set to consider the safeguards deal on Aug. 1 (Veronika Oleksyn, Associated Press/Google News, July 16). Meanwhile, a former Indian nuclear official has called on the country to embrace a pending civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States, the Press Trust of India reported. The deal would make U.S. nuclear fuel and technology available to New Delhi in exchange for allowing international inspections of India’s civilian nuclear sites. “If this deal goes through we can buy a lot of things which were denied to us due to dual-use capability,” former Indian nuclear researcher L.K. Krishnan said. Krishnan also chided India’s government for failing to adequately separate its civilian and military nuclear reactors before pursuing the IAEA monitoring agreement. “If you are not going to use a particular facility for weapons purpose, what is the problem in someone coming and taking a look?  Today if we want to buy anything for a reactor, they won’t sell it to you due to dual-use problem.  But if the deal goes through, we can declare reactors for energy use. … They may even sell us new reactors,” he said. Noting India’s 1998 nuclear-weapon test, Krishnan brushed off concerns that the United States would cut off nuclear trade with New Delhi for conducting another test. “Every time sanctions were imposed, the U.S. and other countries lifted them subsequently.  Even if they impose it again, it would be only for a while.  They will come back to [us] like in 1998 because we are economically strong,” he said, adding it is unclear why New Delhi would need to conduct another nuclear test (Press Trust of India/Deccan Herald, July 16). Back to top

British Hospital Conducts Sarin Drill British emergency personnel on Tuesday responded to the simulated release of sarin nerve agent along a highway in the southeastern United Kingdom, the Oxford Mail reported (see GSN, Nov. 21, 2007). The scenario of the drill, dubbed Exercise Orpheus II, involved a simulated vial of sarin spilling inside a vehicle traveling on the road.  The deadly agent incapacitated the driver and passengers, sending the vehicle careening into a gas station where it caused further harm. Paramedics wearing chemical-proof gear took about 50 mock victims to John Radcliffe hospital at Oxford, where medical staffers provided diagnoses and moved injured people through decontamination showers.  The “victims” — played by medical students, hospital workers and others — were then dressed in special clothing and admitted for treatment. "We are the first trust in the country to look at how staff would respond to a nerve agent attack,” said Rosemary Dooley, the hospital’s deputy operations director.  "It's the biggest exercise of this kind in a working hospital and we tried to ensure normal patients could come and go without their day being interrupted.” "We can refine our plans as part of the debriefing and learn much more than in a paper exercise, she added. The British Health Protection Agency supervised the exercise. "Sarin was a useful substance to use in this scenario because it throws up symptoms we don't often see in clinical practice," said John Simpson, the agency’s deputy emergency response director (Andrew Ffrench, Oxford Mail, July 16). Back to top

Poland Exasperated by Russian Missile Shield Stance A top Polish official yesterday expressed exasperation over Russia’s continued opposition to a U.S. plan to deploy missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic, Interfax reported (see GSN, Jul 3) Moscow has threatened to deploy military and other countermeasures if plans for the missile shield move forward. “We are frustrated with Russia’s stance on the missile system — it is after all a defense system, which poses no risk (to Russia),” said Polish Foreign Minister  Radoslaw Sikorski (Interfax, July 16). Russian President Dmitry Medvedev this week reaffirmed earlier statements threatening a military response to the U.S. plan. “We will be forced to respond to it in kind,” he said in a Tuesday speech announcing his foreign policy goals (see related GSN story, today; Medvedev release, July 15). Back to top

China Purchases Radiation Sensors for Olympics China has completed a $2.5 million purchase of portable radiation sensor devices to safeguard against radiological “dirty bomb” attacks at next month’s Summer Olympic Games in Beijing, the U.S. contractor ICx Technologies announced Tuesday (see GSN, July 11). The firm has provided its handheld identiFINDER radioisotope detection gear to support security efforts at the Olympics, which is set to begin Aug. 8. "We are proud to have our market-leading spectroscopic radiation detectors again being used at such a critical event," Juergen Stein, ICx Radiation president and chief executive officer, said in a statement.  "ICx also supported the 2004 Olympics through the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Pacific Northwest National Lab, and we provided security at the 2006 FIFA World Cup," Stein added (ICx release, July 15).   Back to top

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