The United States, European Union and five other world powers failed to break a years-old nuclear stalemate with Iran Saturday as the Islamic state continued its refusal to halt a key nuclear activity that could support nuclear weapons development, the New York Times reported (see GSN, July 18). EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany urged Iran to accept a “freeze-for-freeze” proposal. Under the arrangement, Tehran would not expand its uranium enrichment program, the world powers would suspend efforts to impose new economic penalties on the Middle Eastern state and the sides would arrange to negotiate a permanent halt to Iran’s uranium enrichment program in exchange for political and diplomatic incentives. However, Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili persistently avoided addressing the proposed freeze, according to the Times. “We still didn’t get the answer we were looking for,” Solana said after the talks in Geneva, adding that the freeze offer would expire in two weeks if Iran does not accept it. Still, Jalili praised the talks as a “very beautiful endeavor” and said they could lead to an outcome “beautiful to behold.” Despite the world powers’ shared backing of the freeze proposal, the side remained divided on other issues; China, Germany and Russia want to commit more time to the negotiating process while the United States wants to push for more sanctions after a two-week period. In addition, France and the United Kingdom called for a more specific definition of what nuclear activities Iran would freeze under their proposal (Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, July 20). U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who was briefed on the talks by U.S. nuclear negotiator William Burns, today excoriated the “meandering” nature of Jalili’s input and threatened to push for new sanctions if Iran continues its “stalling tactics,” the Associated Press reported. “We expected to hear an answer from the Iranians but, as has been the case so many times with the Iranians, what came through was not serious," Rice told journalists. "It's time for the Iranians to give a serious answer." "They can't go and stall and make small talk about culture, they have to make a decision," Rice said. "People are tired of the Iranians and their stalling tactics." "We will see what Iran does in two weeks, but I think the diplomatic process now has a new kind of energy to it," she said. "If they do not decide to suspend then we will be in a situation where we have to return to the Security Council." She added: "From time to time, it is important to invigorate the diplomacy. … The fact that we went may have been a bit surprising to the Iranians, and they didn't react in a way that gave anyone any confidence. "I think we've done enough to demonstrate that the United States is serious and to assure our partners that we're serious," she said (Matthew Lee, Associated Press/Google News, July 21). Rice noted that “imminent action” on new sanctions is unlikely because August is a slow month for the U.N. body, but the Security Council members could begin formulating new penalties soon, Agence France-Presse reported (Agence France-Presse/Google News, July 21). According to Ray Takeyh, an Iran analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, Iran might see in advantage in further holding off a compromise if Tehran believes Washington will offer new compromises, the Los Angeles Times reported. "They got Burns there this week, but in another three weeks, they may have Rice, and after that [U.S. Vice President Dick] Cheney," he said, adding that U.S. “red lines” are “purple, they're mauve, they're anything but red.” However, he suggested that Iran could eventually accept the “freeze-for-freeze” deal if Tehran decides the Bush administration would offer more compromises than the next U.S. president. Iranian political expert Saeed Leylaz said Tehran is most interested in staving off military strikes. "The main, main issue for Tehran is the security guarantee, and that is lacking," he said. "Iranian and American problems are security problems, not diplomatic ones" (Richter/Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, July 20). In Jerusalem, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown , AFP reported. Iran now has a clear choice to make: suspend its nuclear program and accept our offer of negotiations or face growing isolation and the collective response not of just one nation but of all nations round the world," Brown said. "Just as we have led the work on three mandatory sanctions resolutions of the U.N., the U.K. will continue to lead — with the United States and our European Union partners — in our determination to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapons program." Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that Israel “highly appreciates” the British leader’s "determination” … (on the) issue of terrorism and Iranian nuclear armament, adding that “the most serious threat for stability in the Middle East and the global peace is rooted in … Tehran.” According to a Brown spokesman, the United Kingdom could endorse “extended sanctions in some form on [Iran’s] oil and gas sector." Other sources suggested the penalties could attempt to cut off replacement parts for Iran’s indigenous oil refining capability. "Our focus at the moment is on strengthening the sanctions regime to keep up the pressure on Iran," the spokesman said (Agence France-Presse II/Google News, July 21). Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called on Iran Friday to provide full transparency to the International Atomic Energy Agency, RIA Novosti reported. He urged Tehran to “fully cooperate with the IAEA to clarify all the remaining issues concerning the Iranian nuclear program,” according to a Kremlin statement (RIA Novosti/Nerve, July 18).
By Chris Schneidmiller Global Security Newswire
BARCELONA, Spain — The United States has kept hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe long after the need for the bombs evaporated, observers argued Saturday (see GSN, June 19). “These are proliferation-prone relics of a bygone era of great power confrontation,” European Parliament member Ana Maria Gomes of Portugal said during a panel discussion on European nuclear weapons policy at the Euroscience Open Forum 2008 conference. Until last month, the Defense Department was believed to have roughly 350 gravity bombs at U.S. or national bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey and the United Kingdom. The Federation of American Scientists reported in June that all weapons had been removed from the British Royal Air Force base at Lakenheath, leaving 150-240 on the continent (see GSN, June 26). Those are the remnants of an arsenal of thousands of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe during the Cold War to stave off a potential invasion by the Soviet Union, said nuclear arms control expert Steve Fetter. The first Bush administration in 1991 agreed to withdraw the large majority of the artillery shells, warheads and land mines; Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in turn pulled his side’s tactical nuclear weapons from Eastern Europe. President Bill Clinton in 1993, two years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, chose not to complete the withdrawal of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons from Europe, said Fetter, who was working for the administration at that time. “When we asked whether this might not be wise, others argued that our European allies were against it and that it would undermine NATO and weaken our security relationships,” according to Fetter, dean of the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. “No plausible scenario was offered in which U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe might be useful for the defense of Europe, much less necessary for the defense of Europe. The only [argument] offered was the vague need to guard against an uncertain future. And, of course, there was also the symbolism attached to these nuclear weapons.” There was no hard look at what security gains might be achieved through pulling the U.S. weapons out of Europe, Fetter said. The major obstacle now to complete removal of those bombs is Turkey, said physicist James Acton, a lecturer at the War Studies Department at King’s College London. “As a matter of principle the idea of withdrawing nuclear weapons from Europe is something that an awful lot of people agree with,” he said. “The question is to what extent does the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Turkey make Turkey more likely to want to acquire nuclear weapons itself” as a hedge against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. There would have to be extensive discussions to assure leaders in Ankara that NATO’s defense commitment would persist once the nuclear weapons had been pulled, he said. “It’s really a very insecure time for the U.S.-Turk alliance. Anything that gives the Turks the impression that this alliance is eroding would not be a good idea,” said panelist Bruno Tertrais, a researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. Present and Future Nuclear ArsenalsThe bombs left in Europe are one example of the way in which the U.S. nuclear posture has remained static since the Cold War, Fetter argued. While the total arsenal itself is smaller, now estimated at about 5,400 warheads, thousands of missiles remain on “hair-trigger alert” for quick use against Russia, he said. “There’s no discernible logic or strategic analysis underlying this strategic posture beyond simple inertia,” Fetter said. Gomes, a Socialist lawmaker, lamented what she characterized as the failure by the official nuclear powers to meet their obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to move toward disarmament. The European Parliament is limited to asking questions or making statements on nuclear weapons issues, she said, acknowledging that France and the United Kingdom would quickly shut down any attempt to assert more authority regarding their arsenals. “No one pretends that Tehran or Pyongyang would have given up their decades-old plans to acquire nuclear weapons if the authorized nuclear weapons states had done more these last eight years to give up their nukes,” Gomes said. “But one truth remains: It is extremely difficult to stop the nuclear proliferators as long as the P-5, including [France and the United Kingdom], continue to avidly renew and improve their own arsenals, therefore reneging on the promises made in the 2000 NPT review conference and undermining the grand bargain underpinning the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.” Other panelists said, more positively, that recent pro-disarmament commentaries by former high-level U.S. and British officials have put the issue, at least as a topic of discussion, back on the table (see GSN, Feb. 26 and June 30). They offered different levels of optimism on whether the next U.S. president would undertake significant reductions to the nation’s nuclear arsenal that might include withdrawal of the Europe-based weapons. “Both of the candidates have made very promising statements regarding nuclear weapons policies. They both endorsed deep reductions in the number of U.S. nuclear weapons,” Fetter said. “So I’m very optimistic.” Either man is likely to make moves that would reflect well on the United States ahead of the next review conference for the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, he said. Fetter argued, though, that Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) might be more likely — or at least more able — to implement such a reduction than Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.). A president seen as strong on national security has a better chance of being able to take decisive action; Democrats are perceived as being weaker on defense or concerned by that reputation, he said. Tertrais questioned whether the United States has the industrial capability to carry out a large-scale dismantlement of nuclear weapons. “There will be dismantlement bottlenecks,” he said. “If the next administration wants to make a difference in terms of numbers it will have to increase very significantly its dismantlement capabilities. By what margin I don’t know.” Europeans should be asking themselves how they can help the United States ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty — moving it a step closer to entry into force — and press forward with a pact to prohibit production of fissile material for weapons purposes, according to Tertrais. The price for congressional ratification of either treaty might be too high for whoever takes over the White House in January, Fetter said. Two-thirds of the Senate must approve U.S. entry into any treaty. Instead, Fetter argued, the president should focus on matters he has more authority to control, such as the size of the nuclear arsenal and procedures for its operations. More work also needs to be done globally to phase out weapon-usable highly enriched uranium from use in civilian nuclear facilities, to ensure that a technologically sophisticated organization does not acquire and use the material in a weapon, he added. “Highly enriched uranium is just one of those materials that give me the willies,” he said. Independent AnalysisIndependent analysis has proven at times to be key in changing U.S. nuclear policy, Fetter said. He used the former proposal for the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator as one example. The Bush administration wanted a weapon that could destroy hardened, underground facilities that might contain weapons of mass destruction. Some lawmakers were left with the impression that such a weapon would burrow deep into the earth, causing little damage on the surface upon exploding; others believed the weapon would have a low yield that would prevent significant numbers of deaths. Congress in 2003 requested a study from the National Academy of Sciences, which reported that the warhead would not reach beyond a few meters into the earth. The academy committee, of which Fetter was a member, found that the weapon could kill anywhere from 100,000 to more than 1 million if detonated near a city. The nuclear bunker buster proposal ultimately died in the face of opposition on Capitol Hill (see GSN, May 9, 2005) Acton discussed a case that he said would have benefited from a higher degree of outside scrutiny. The British government in December 2006 issued a white paper on a replacement for the nation’s four nuclear-armed Vanguard-class submarines, which were due to begin going out of service no later than 2022. Given that it would take 17 years to design, build and begin operations of a new vessel, the government said, a decision was needed in 2007 to ensure that there was no break in the policy of keeping one submarine deployed at all times. Parliament in early 2007 approved plans to begin designing the next class of British nuclear-armed submarines. The government rejected claims by four prominent physicists that the service lives of the submarines could be stretched past the accepted five-year extensions. However, as important technical details were withheld from any external study, it is impossible to know who is correct or whether other issues — such as sustaining employment or the submarine-production skills base — influenced the decision, Acton said. “I think in an open democratic society that attempts to make big decisions about big issues like nuclear weapons, that is deeply unsatisfying,” he said. “Having some sort of peer review brought to bear on these decisions involving classification would help us untangle this debate and treat these issues more openly and honestly.” Acton and Tertrais both said they did not see any problem with forming in the United Kingdom or France an independent analysis organization similar to the U.S. National Academy or the JASON group. They said, though, that there have been no calls for such a group in either of their nations.
Indian officials briefed international diplomats Friday in Vienna in an effort to re-open nuclear supply lines to New Delhi that have been closed since the nation developed nuclear weapons over 30 years, Reuters reported Saturday (see GSN, July 17). The briefing by Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon sought to describe a draft agreement the nation has reached with the International Atomic Energy Agency to allow inspectors to monitor India’s civilian nuclear activities. Menon spoke to members of the agency’s 35-nation governing board as well as representatives of the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, which sets international nuclear trade rules. “Technical questions were posed by a number of countries and Menon addressed them all,” said a diplomat who attended the briefing. “He stressed that this was a standard safeguards agreement under the IAEA statute.” The meeting was held on the third anniversary of the announcement a U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal that has triggered New Delhi’s effort to receive an exemption from U.S. and international rules barring key nuclear sales to nations outside the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty regime. The United States exempted India from U.S. laws in late 2006 and the NSG nations have been waiting for a completed IAEA inspections agreement before they consider altering their rules. The IAEA board is scheduled to convene Aug. 1 to discuss approving the agency inspections agreement (Mark Heinrich, Reuters, July 18). As the international process advanced, Indian officials have been working hard to gain domestic approval as well, the Associated Press reported. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh faces a parliamentary vote of confidence tomorrow, and news agencies have predicted a very close decision. Singh needs to win 272 votes in the nation’s lower house to keep his government intact. The Hindustan Times has estimated that Singh currently has 270 votes in support with seven undecided or abstaining. The Times of India has polled 268 votes in support of Singh with just four undecided. Should Singh lose the vote, a new government would take power, one which would probably not pursue the nuclear deal, AP reported (Gavin Rabinowitz, Associated Press/Google News, July 21). Seeking to persuade lawmakers to oppose the deal, three Indian nuclear scientists criticized the nuclear deal in a letter Friday, Agence France-Presse reported. “Once the deal is in place, it is clear that India’s commercial interactions with the U.S., as well as with any other countries, will be firmly controlled from Washington,” says the letter by former Atomic Energy Commission Chairman P.K. Iyengar, former Atomic Energy Regulation Board head A. Gopalakrishnan, and former Bhabha Atomic Research Board chief A.N. Prasad. “The deal could have other serious repercussions, including a potential weakening of India’s nuclear deterrent and an ability to protect and promote indigenous research and development efforts in nuclear technology,” the letter adds (Agence France-Presse/Google News, July 18).
A Pakistani court today upheld the four-year-old confinement of former top Pakistani nuclear scientist and proliferator Abdul Qadeer Khan, limiting his contacts to close friends and relatives and prohibiting him from discussing the government’s role in dispersing nuclear knowledge, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 16). Sardar Mohammed Aslam, the presiding judge of the Islamabad High Court, ruled that Khan "will not convey, transmit, relay any comment or give interview to any channel, news reporter, print or electronic media, in any manner whatsoever in respect of issue of proliferation." Khan was placed under house arrest in 2004, after he had confessed to spreading nuclear technology and expertise to Libya, Iran and North Korea. The judge ruled that the all of Khan’s contacts must receive a security clearance and cannot discuss his role in the proliferation activities (Sadaqat Jan, Associated Press I/Google News, July 21). However, the court permitted Khan to travel within the country to meet with relatives and to receive medical care from a physician that he chooses (Associated Press/Google News, July 21). Lawyers for the government said the gag order is necessary to prevent the international community from imposing economic penalties on Pakistan. It remained uncertain whether Khan would appeal the verdict (Jan, AP I).
The United States sent a “hardline” official to a meeting earlier this month to discuss terms for verifying North Korea’s denuclearization, raising the likelihood that the Stalinist state’s disarmament might be stalled, the Yonhap News Agency reported today (see GSN, July 18). The appearance by Patricia McNerney, principal deputy assistant secretary of state, signaled that Washington is determined to conduct snap inspections of North Korean nuclear sites, a concession that Pyongyang has not made, diplomatic sources in Seoul said. Because no talks have been arranged to address the verification terms, Washington might delay North Korea’s removal from the U.S. terror watchdog list and Pyongyang could slow the disablement of its Yongbyon plutonium processing facility (Yonhap News Agency, July 21). U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said she would stress the importance of verification during informal talks with her North Korean counterpart planned for Wednesday, Reuters reported. "I believe there will be a very strong message that the obligations need to be met and that the verification protocol really needs to be completed and that it has to be a verification protocol that can give us confidence that we are able to verify the accuracy of the North Korean declaration," she said (Jon Herskovitz, Reuters, July 21). "I wouldn't put too much weight on this meeting," she added, according to the Associated Press. "I would not call it either historic, or monumental, or even consequential. … It's just in the consultation category" (Matthew Lee, Associated Press/Google News, July 20). According to Kim Sung-han, an international relations expert at Korea University, the Bush administration is unlikely to target possible undeclared North Korean nuclear activities during the remainder of its term “[It] is just aiming at disabling the plutonium program completely,” he said (Herskovitz, Reuters).
A U.S. B-52 strategic bomber crashed in the Pacific Ocean off the island of Guam today, prompting a major aerial and surface-level rescue effort that recovered two of the flight’s six passengers as of this morning, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 15). The plane from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, intended as part of an ongoing bomber presence in the region, was destroyed on its way to a parade marking the anniversary of Guam’s U.S. military seizure in World War II. Navy, Coast Guard and local fire personnel were summoned to respond to the accident, which took place at 9:45 a.m. about 30 miles from the island’s Apra Harbor. A board of military officers will examine the incident, Air Force officials said. The crash followed the Feb. 26 crash of a B-2 strategic bomber at the same base. Both crew members safely ejected from that aircraft (Jaymes Song, Associated Press/Google News, July 21).
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