Former U.S. national security adviser Brent Scowcroft. Stop Military Chatter on Iran, Former U.S. Advisers Urge The United States should rule out military action as an option for dealing with Iranian nuclear facilities the Islamic state could use to support nuclear-weapon development, former U.S. national security advisers Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski said yesterday (see GSN, July 21). The United States and other Western powers have expressed concern about Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which could produce a key nuclear-weapon ingredient.  Iran has defended its program as strictly geared toward energy production while rebuffing offers for halting it...Full Story

U.S. Presses North Korea on Verification Terms U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice today pressed North Korea to accept a four-page protocol proposed this month for verifying the dismantlement of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 21)...Full Story

Washington Vows to Press Indian Nuclear Deal The Bush administration yesterday applauded Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for winning a parliamentary vote of confidence and promised to seek rapid U.S. congressional approval of a nuclear trade agreement with India, the Wall Street Journal reported today (see GSN, July 22)...Full Story

	Wednesday, July 23, 2008

British Panel to Assess Terror Threats The United Kingdom is creating an interagency panel of specialists to assess emerging threats posed by terrorism and other sources, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced yesterday (see GSN, April 15). The “security horizon scanning team” is expected to determine the possible consequences of terrorism-related developments as well as foreign policy issues, new technologies and other matters, the Associated Press reported. Brown described the panel in a statement as a new element in the United Kingdom’s counterterrorism strategy. "The aim is to safeguard the nation, its citizens, our prosperity and our way of life against a constantly changing security environment," he said. The United Kingdom also plans to appoint security officials and analysts to a new 12-person board that would prepare annual reports on threats to the country, Brown said, adding that the board is expected to start work within several months (David Stringer, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, July 22). Back to top

Stop Military Chatter on Iran, Former U.S. Advisers Urge The United States should rule out military action as an option for dealing with Iranian nuclear facilities the Islamic state could use to support nuclear-weapon development, former U.S. national security advisers Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski said yesterday (see GSN, July 21). The United States and other Western powers have expressed concern about Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which could produce a key nuclear-weapon ingredient.  Iran has defended its program as strictly geared toward energy production while rebuffing offers for halting it. "Don't talk about, 'Do we bomb them now or later?'" Scowcroft said on a U.S.-Iranian nuclear diplomacy panel sponsored by the independent Center for Strategic and International Studies. By raising the possibility of an attack, "we legitimize the use of force … and may tempt the Israelis" to conduct a strike, said Scowcroft, who advised U.S. presidents Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush.  He added that economic penalties are taking a toll on Iran and urged the international community to continue nuclear talks. Brzezinski, who advised President Jimmy Carter, called military threats “counterproductive.” "I don't want the public to believe a pre-emptive attack can be justified," he said.  Raising the threat "convinces Iran it is being threatened … and maybe it ought to have a (nuclear) weapon." A U.S. strike on Iran would be a “disaster,” Brzezinski added, suggesting it would result in a war “at least two decades” long that would also embroil Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan.  If the nuclear talks fail this year, he said, some administration elements might decide “it justifies doing something.” The advisers said strife within the Bush administration has largely stalled any progress the United States can make with Iran until the next presidential term.  However, they expressed support for the White House’s decision to send Undersecretary of State William Burns to multilateral talks with Iran on Saturday. “It brings the U.S. solidly in with the Europeans and the Russians,” Scowcroft said. Scowcroft also said that China’s more proactive role in North Korean denuclearization (see related GSN story, today) plays a “decisive” role, and China “could affect the Iran negotiations” by working closely with Germany (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, July 23). Top EU diplomats also voiced their opposition yesterday to any military action against Iran, the Associated Press reported. "We are 100-percent focused on a diplomatic resolution to the Iranian issue," said British Foreign Secretary David Miliband.  "The offer that has been made to Iran on the one hand … and the sanctions on the other, if they refuse to engage and reply, is exactly the right approach." EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said diplomacy is the only option for handling the nuclear standoff in the short term. "The position of the European Union is clear.  … We want to find a diplomatic solution to this, in particular to clarify to the fullest the nature of their nuclear program," Solana said, adding he expected "clear and simple answers” from Iran within the next two weeks (Constant Brand, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, July 22). Meanwhile, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a speech today that the appearance by Undersecretary of State Burns was a sign of U.S. respect, Reuters reported "[The U.S] representative in the meeting spoke politely and in a dignified way and he kept respect for the Iranian nation and this was a positive step,” he said in the address, adding that the United States has “taken a positive step towards recognizing the right of the Iranian nation, towards justice, towards repairing (America's) image in the world [and] towards attracting the attention of the Iranian nation.” "I advise you not to spoil this positive step … by using the language of colonial times and by bullying," he said in the speech aired live on state television.  “If you imagine that by some threats, sanctions and pressure you can make the Iranian nation retreat, you are again making a mistake."  (Zahra Hosseinian, Reuters/Washington Post, July 23). While welcoming further talks, Ahmadinejad warned Iran “will not retreat one iota in the face of oppressing powers,” the New York Times reported. “Iranian people consider nuclear energy as their undeniable right,” he said.  “They will stand until the end” (Alan Cowell, New York Times, July 24). Tehran yesterday criticized British threats to impose new sanctions on Iran if it does not halt uranium enrichment, Agence France-Presse reported. "The inaccurate comments of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in his recent trip to [Israel] is in contradiction to the prevailing atmosphere of the (nuclear) negotiations," Iranian state media quoted Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki as saying.  "It depicts London's wrong impression and therefore it is required that London corrects its strategy and take a constructive position,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Khaleej Times, July 22). Elsewhere, a U.S. law expert has called on Iran to sue nations threatening to impose sanctions on the country for refusing to halt uranium enrichment, United Press International reported yesterday. Francis Boyle, an international law professor at the University of Illinois, has offered to represent Iran at the Hague-based International Court of Justice, Iran’s Press TV reported yesterday. “My proposal was that Iran should sue these states immediately, convene an emergency hearing by the World Court, and ask the court to indicate provisional measures of protection on behalf of Iran against the United States, Israel and the EU-3 — basically a temporary restraining order,” he said (United Press International, July 22). Back to top       U.S. Presses North Korea on Verification Terms U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice today pressed North Korea to accept a four-page protocol proposed this month for verifying the dismantlement of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 21). She made the plea in a short conversation with Pak Ui Chun, her North Korean counterpart, following 80 minutes of talks with the top foreign officials of six nations negotiating the denuclearization process. “We didn't get into specific timetables, but the spirit was good because people believe we have made progress,” she told journalists after the informal meeting at the ASEAN conference in Singapore.  “There is also a sense of urgency about moving forward and a sense that we can't afford to have another hiatus.” Rice added that the meeting had “no surprises” and “was actually very good.” “It wasn't a standoff with people just stating their positions … it was interactive,” she said. “This is quite significant,” Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said.  “It shows the six parties have the political will to move forward with the … process,” adding that the six parties had made “major headway” in reaching arrangement terms. South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan added:  “Although it was not an official meeting, I think it was a good opportunity to show that the six-party process is maturing” (Associated Press/New York Times, July 23). Before the talks, however, a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said Pyongyang’s removal from a U.S. terror watchdog list, slated to take effect next month, would not be enough to ensure that denuclearization moves forward, Agence France-Presse reported. The United States “took an action although it is incomplete,” Ri Dong Il said.  “What is most important is to lift the sanctions [on North Korea] fully and in a full-phase way.” He added that North Korea had “submitted a nuclear declaration in a sincere effort and even took the measure of demolishing a cooling tower, which was supposed to be done in the nuclear dismantling phase” (Agence France-Presse II/Space War, July 23). A diplomatic source yesterday said Secretary Rice would meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after today’s six-party talks, Interfax reported. The sides are likely to address North Korea’s denuclearization and possibly missile defense matters, the source said (see related GSN story, today; Interfax, July 22). Back to top       Washington Vows to Press Indian Nuclear Deal The Bush administration yesterday applauded Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for winning a parliamentary vote of confidence and promised to seek rapid U.S. congressional approval of a nuclear trade agreement with India, the Wall Street Journal reported today (see GSN, July 22). Yesterday’s vote in New Delhi cemented Singh’s standing and freed him to seek the deal’s approval before the International Atomic Energy Agency and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group.  Should those groups endorse the deal, the U.S. Congress would need to grant its approval, but the lawmakers’ calendar is short and full in advance of November elections. “We’re going to be communicating to the Hill how important we believe this measure is for the United States (and) how important we believe that this strategic partnership will be for India,” State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said yesterday. Bush officials have been pressing to complete the deal this year, fearing that a new president and Congress might not give the agreement as high a priority.  Recent comments from both major presidential candidates, however, suggest that they support the deal (see GSN, July 11).  And even a Democrat-controlled Congress would probably lean toward backing the agreement which would enable India to buy U.S. nuclear materials and technology, according to the Journal. “Democrats tend to be more antinuclear, but equally, pro-India,” said Representative Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.).  Still, “I don’t think it’s going to be the first priority of the new leadership.” Also adding time pressure to the deal are India’s regularly scheduled elections next May.  Given tough economic conditions at home, Singh’s parliamentary command could falter.  Any Indian leader is politically vulnerable, the Journal reported, because neither of the two largest parties has held an outright majority in parliament since 1996 (Sheth/Beckett, Wall Street Journal, July 23). Back to top       Cuban Bombers Would Cross “Red Line,” General Says The United States would not tolerate a reported Russian proposal to station long-range nuclear bombers in Cuba, the nominee to become Air Force chief of staff said yesterday (see GSN, July 22). If Russia acts on such a plan, “we should stand strong and indicate that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America," Gen. Norton Schwartz said at his confirmation hearing (see GSN, July 22). "I would certainly offer the best military advice that we engage the Russians not to pursue that approach," he added. A White House spokeswoman would not comment on the reported plan, saying there had been no "official response from the Russian government" on the original Russian newspaper report. "That scenario is hypothetical and speculative at this point," U.S. Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman added (Jim Mannion, Agence France-Presse/Google News, July 23). Back to top       Khan Might Appeal Media Ban Former top Pakistani nuclear scientist and proliferator Abdul Qadeer Khan might appeal a Monday court decision prohibiting him from discussing nuclear proliferation issues with the media, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, July 21). Henny Khan, the scientist’s wife, said he might challenge the ruling (Stephen Graham, Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, July 22). “We are not very happy,” she said.  “My first impression of the order is that we are still hand-tied and gagged.” She rebuffed a rumor that Khan had attempted to bargain with Pakistani officials over his confinement, but she said the media ban “just showed how much the government had to hide.  It is too afraid” (Salman Masood, New York Times, July 22). Back to top

U.S. Seeks High-Speed Biosensors The United States hopes by late 2010 to begin deploying biological detection gear able to automatically identify deadly agents in four to six hours, the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy reported yesterday (see GSN, July 16). The 5-year-old Biowatch program has already installed systems in more than 30 major U.S. cities to detect airborne biological agents such as anthrax and smallpox, but it would take between 10 and 34 hours to identify a biological warfare agent by removing filters from the devices for laboratory analysis, the process currently used, U.S. Homeland Security Department officials last week told a U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security subcommittee. Time saved by automated biosensors "will potentially save thousands of lives each day an attack, such as anthrax, is detected ahead of human syndromic surveillance and other public health indicators," Deputy Assistant Homeland Security Secretary Robert Hooks said in written testimony. When asked about the department’s ability to begin a three to six-month testing period for the devices by next April — a date already a year behind the program’s original schedule — Biowatch chief Jeffrey Stiefel said the new deadline is feasible although the machines must be well tested. "We can't afford to put a system out there that's going to make a mistake, because the [response] actions of that mistake are tremendous," Stiefel said. Officials added that the department is pursuing a temporary model of an automated indoor biosensor, dubbed Generation 2.5, for deployment at likely terrorist targets before the next-generation model is ready (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy release, July 22). Back to top

U.S.-Polish Missile Defense Talks Resume U.S. and Polish officials resumed missile defense talks today in Warsaw just days after Russia reportedly threatened to deploy strategic bombers in Cuba if Washington installs missile interceptors in Poland, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 22). The Bush administration has reached an agreement to erect a missile defense radar in the Czech Republic (see GSN, July 8) and is now seeking to finalize a deal to deploy 10 interceptors in Poland. Today’s talks were organized into four working groups:  intelligence, defense modernization, technology and financial issues, U.S. Embassy spokesman Andrew Schilling said.  Poland is seeking U.S. assistance in modernizing its military and U.S. protection from any increased Russian threat triggered by the missile defense plans (Associated Press/Google News, July 23). The two nations are close to agreement, with the United States prepared to supply Patriot missile batteries to defend Polish sites, the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita reported yesterday.  Holding up the agreement’s completion are U.S. funding concerns and Polish worries that the United States could withdraw from the agreement prematurely, according to Rzeczpospolita (Rzeczpospolita/BBC Monitoring, July 22). Meanwhile, Russia has restored oil sales to the Czech Republic after cutting supplies by 40 percent after Prague signed the missile defense deal with the United States, the New York Times reported yesterday (see GSN, July 14; Andrew Kramer, New York Times, July 22). Back to top       North Korea Denounces Planned Japanese PAC-3 Test North Korea today criticized a Japanese plan to test-launch a Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missile interceptor this September (see GSN, July 14). Japan is pushing to deploy U.S. missile defense elements to gain a strategic advantage over its Asian neighbors, the official Minju Joson newspaper said in a commentary. “[If] Japan has access to a perfect missile ‘shield,’ it will mean Japan’s acquisition of full capability to mount pre-emptive attacks,” said the statement, which called on the island nation to rethink its moves to implement the defenses (Korean Central News Agency/BBC Monitoring, July 23). Meanwhile, Orbital Sciences Corp. has received a $15 million U.S. contract to produce a midrange missile to serve as a target in a Japanese missile interceptor test, FinancialWire reported yesterday. The company plans to complete construction of the target missile in Arizona by January.  The contract with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency also includes the option to order a second missile (Orbital Sciences release, July 22).   Back to top

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