U.S. Representative Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) has urged the Nuclear Suppliers Group to adopt conditions on resuming nuclear trade with India (Hassan Ammar/Getty Images). NSG Discusses Indian Nuclear Trade Exemption Nuclear exporting nations began talks in Vienna today to consider allowing nuclear sales to India, more than 30 years after New Delhi was cut off from commercial markets because of its 1974 nuclear test, the Press Trust of India reported (see GSN, Aug. 20). Indian officials briefed the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group on the nation’s plans to purchase nuclear technology while opening its civilian nuclear sector to international monitoring.  ..Full Story

Scientific Sleuthing Untangled Anthrax Mailing Case Federal investigators counted on scientific techniques that were inventive and often improvised to unravel the genetic “fingerprint” of anthrax from a series of 2001 mailings and eventually narrow their pool of possible culprits down to a single U.S. Army researcher, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 19)...Full Story

No End in Sight for Latest Korea Nuclear Standoff A high-level South Korean official said yesterday there did not appear to be reason for optimism about an imminent solution to the latest obstacle to the denuclearization of North Korean, the Korea Times reported (see GSN, Aug. 20)...Full Story

	Thursday, August 21, 2008

Asia Could See Growing WMD Threat, Expert Warns An Australian defense analyst has warned that China’s growing influence could spark a arms race in Asia involving weapons of mass destruction, the Australian Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, July 10). "When our American friends tell us it's the Middle East which is the most likely area of proliferation and nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, [it’s]  not,” Paul Dibb, a professor at Australian National University’s Strategic and Defense Studies Center, said during a regional security conference.  “It’s Asia that has the most potent latent capabilities to develop nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.” The United States places high priority on addressing North Korea’s nuclear-weapon capabilities and Iran’s suspected pursuit of a nuclear deterrent, while the proliferation risk in Asia could depend more on whether Washington cuts back its commitments in the Pacific in the face of Beijing’s growing clout, Dibb said. "Japan (goes nuclear) only if it loses confidence in the American alliance," he said.   "If Japan develops a nuclear weapon, China would immediately proliferate a number of ballistic missiles and warheads … and what's the betting South Korea would develop a nuclear weapon." Nations such as Indonesia and Taiwan could also produce new weapons threats in such a situation, Dibb said. He added that groups such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum have failed to establish effective nonproliferation arrangements. "You've got no arms control or disarmament agreements worth talking about," Dibb said (Australian Associated Press/News.com.au, Aug. 20). Meanwhile, an Australian think tank warned in a report this week that the nation’s crops are unusually susceptible to biological-weapon attacks because their relative lack of disease to date has left them with limited immune defenses, the Canberra Times reported today. The report by Carl Ungerer of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute states that the Australia has taken little action to defend against biological attacks on its agriculture, an industry producing 4 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. “A lack of previous exposure to these organisms, and therefore a widespread lack of immunity, only increases the vulnerability of Australian agricultural commodities to accidental introduction or a deliberate attack,” Ungerer said in the report. “The threat of agroterrorism … continues to receive higher attention in comparable countries such as the United States,” the report states (David McLennan, Canberra Times, Aug. 21). Back to top

NSG Discusses Indian Nuclear Trade Exemption Nuclear exporting nations began talks in Vienna today to consider allowing nuclear sales to India, more than 30 years after New Delhi was cut off from commercial markets because of its 1974 nuclear test, the Press Trust of India reported (see GSN, Aug. 20). Indian officials briefed the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group on the nation’s plans to purchase nuclear technology while opening its civilian nuclear sector to international monitoring.  The session was scheduled to continue tomorrow and could require additional meetings next month. The formal review of India’s trade status was spurred by a tentative U.S.-Indian nuclear trade deal reached in 2005.  Since then, the United States has exempted New Delhi from nuclear nonproliferation laws that mirrored the current NSG prohibitions.  Those guidelines bar key nuclear sales to nations that have not joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and do not permit international oversight of all their nuclear activities. Indian and U.S. officials have argued, however, that India has been a responsible nation that has not proliferated nuclear technology and therefore deserves different treatment than other nuclear-armed nations outside the NPT regime. The suppliers group makes it decisions by consensus, and a small number of members expressed reservations today about waiving the rules for India, PTI reported (Lalitha Vaidyanathan, Press Trust of India, Aug. 21). Potential deal blockers include Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and Switzerland, Agence France-Presse reported today.  U.S. officials, however, expressed hope that their concerns could be resolved and the trade deal advanced in time for lawmakers in Washington to grant final approval this year (Agence France-Presse I/Google News, Aug. 21). A group critical of the planned Indian nuclear deal sent a letter to NSG chair Germany last week urging the group to at least add some key conditions if it chose to exempt India from the guidelines. The letter, crafted by the Arms Control Association and signed by 150 nonproliferation experts, urges the group to agree to cut off nuclear trade if India resumes nuclear testing and to never sell any nuclear fuel production equipment, technology that could also be used to produce nuclear-weapon materials. Those and other suggestions would ease the sting of what is still a bad deal, the letter says. “India’s commitments under the current terms of the proposed arrangement do not justify making far-reaching exceptions to international nonproliferation rules and norms,” the letter says (Arms Control Association release, Aug. 15). Two U.S. lawmakers also urged NSG members to adopt similar conditions while reminding the group of its origins. “Paradoxically, the Nuclear Suppliers Group was formed in direct response to India’s illegal 1974 nuclear test.  Its central purpose is to ensure that no other country exploits foreign nuclear energy assistance to make a bomb, as India did,” said Representatives Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) in a New York Times commentary yesterday. The two recommended that NSG nations require India to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and to end the production of nuclear-weapon materials before allowing New Delhi to purchase any nuclear technology (Markey/Tauscher, New York Times, Aug. 20). Back to top       No End in Sight for Latest Korea Nuclear Standoff A high-level South Korean official said yesterday there did not appear to be reason for optimism about an imminent solution to the latest obstacle to the denuclearization of North Korean, the Korea Times reported (see GSN, Aug. 20). Pyongyang agreed last year to dismantle its nuclear sector in exchange for economic, security and diplomatic benefits from China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States.  It has taken several steps in that direction, but has reportedly balked at a U.S. proposal for verification of its nuclear activities and holdings. “The U.S. and North Korea are consulting on the verification protocol, but it seems difficult for the two sides to reach a compromise soon,” the official said. “But I don’t want to describe this situation as pessimistic since these kinds of difficulties are kind of ritual when it comes to negotiations with North Korea,” the official added. Seoul hopes to see Pyongyang begin actual dismantlement of its nuclear plants — the third phase of the 2007 agreement —by the end of 2007, according to the official (Jung Sung-ki, Korea Times, Aug. 20). South Korea intends to reduce the pace at which it is providing energy assistance to its neighbor until North Korea agrees to a verification plan, Dow Jones Newswires reported yesterday. South Korean and U.S. nuclear negotiators agreed to the plan while meeting last week, diplomatic sources told the Yonhap News Agency. North Korea has reportedly accepted some terms of the verification proposal, including interviews with relevant personnel, inspections of nuclear sites and sampling of some material.  However, there is not yet agreement on what equipment can be used during the verification process and the scope of sampling, according to Yonhap (Dow Jones Newswires/NASDAQ.com, Aug. 21). South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Chinese President Hu Jintao are scheduled to meet Monday to “mainly discuss North Korea-related issues,” an aide to Lee told Agence France-Presse today. “We will ask China to play an active role as host of six-party talks for the thorough verification of North Korea's declaration and entry to the third phase of denuclearization,” the official said (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Aug. 21). Back to top       Iran, IAEA to Continue Talks Iran today said it would continue discussing its nuclear program with the International Atomic Energy Agency following the nation’s second round of talks this month with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Aug. 19). IAEA safeguards chief Olli Heinonen began another round of talks Monday in Tehran with Iranian officials.  He planned to depart yesterday, Iranian state media reported. "The negotiations held over the past three days were positive and will continue," said Iranian Atomic Energy Organization deputy chief Mohammad Saeedi.  “The two sides have agreed to continue these discussions.” Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's envoy to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, added that "negotiations … on technical cooperation between Iran and the IAEA will continue." Neither side has disclosed details on the focus of the recent discussions, but Heinonen has visited Tehran in recent months in an attempt to clarify Iran’s nuclear intentions.  Iran insists the program is strictly aimed at producing civilian energy, but Western nations have expressed concern it could support nuclear-weapon development (Agence France-Presse/Google News, Aug. 20). Back to top       U.S. Uranium Storage Site Nearly Complete A new U.S. uranium storage facility has nearly been completed at the Y-12 site in Tennessee, the Knoxville News Sentinel reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 26). “We’re close — very close,” said spokesman Steven Wyatt. The $549 million site, designed to store highly enriched uranium from U.S. nuclear weapons, could begin “cold” operations in November and actual storage in early fiscal 2010 (Frank Munger, Knoxville News Sentinel, Aug. 20). Back to top

Scientific Sleuthing Untangled Anthrax Mailing Case Federal investigators counted on scientific techniques that were inventive and often improvised to unravel the genetic “fingerprint” of anthrax from a series of 2001 mailings and eventually narrow their pool of possible culprits down to a single U.S. Army researcher, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 19). Late last year, the search led the FBI to a flask of anthrax held by Bruce Ivins, a microbiologist with the U.S. Army Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md.  Ivins died last month in an apparent suicide as federal prosecutors were reportedly preparing charges against him. After American Media Inc. photo editor Bob Stevens became the first victim of the mailings, the FBI consulted biologist Paul Keim of Northern Arizona University and learned the anthrax used was from the Ames strain, the bacteria’s most potent known form.  However, Keim could not determine what specific sample of the strain was used. The Institute for Genomic Research, or TIGR, was tapped and by early 2002 had recorded the sample’s entire genetic sequence.  The team then learned of small differences between the genome and genetic material from another Ames strain sample. “The finding was very good news for the investigation by giving hope that molecular forensics might bear fruit but, if so, large numbers of samples would need to be analyzed,” said Claire Fraser-Liggett, who at the time headed the institute. The team’s initial optimism that it could genetically distinguish various samples was curtailed after it found the mailing sample’s genome perfectly matched to that of the Ames strain’s common ancestor, drawn in 1981 from a cow’s corpse.  However, a Fort Detrick researcher soon spotted small differences in separate cultures of anthrax taken from the mailings. “Had that task been assigned to someone less experienced, these [culture differences] might never have been seen or their significance never realized,” Fraser-Liggett said. The team cultivated mutated anthrax comprising roughly 1 percent of spores used in the attacks and then decoded seven mutated genomes over a period of two years. The FBI eventually determined that the mutated anthrax had been drawn from 35 cultures produced at the Fort Detrick facility and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah and later combined in an anthrax supply dubbed RMR-1029, the sample controlled by Ivins. The very large amount of anthrax that was cultured, concentrated and combined to create the supply “guarantees you will see these mutants, and when you mix them together you will have a characteristic signature,” said Keim, of Northern Arizona University. “That’s when the genetics caught up with the investigators,” a U.S. Justice Department prosecutor said (Nicholas Wade, New York Times, Aug. 21). Meanwhile, Senator Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) yesterday said the FBI has not responded to an Aug. 7 letter in which he demanded details on key concerns about the case that investigators have not addressed publicly, Salon reported. “I assume one of the reasons I haven't [received a reply] is because in the meantime, the FBI has consented to a hearing that Senator [Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) is] having, and a hearing is one instrument of doing it. “At the time I wrote the letter, I didn't know whether there'd be a hearing or not, and I wanted to make sure, as one individual senator who's not chairman of the Judiciary Committee, that I would do my own oversight and get answers to questions,” he said. Grassley called for the Judiciary Committee to open the upcoming hearing to the public.  Still, he said, “it would be my intent to get all that information out, either through the hearing, or through answers to my letters” (Glenn Greenwald, Salon, Aug. 20). Back to top       Indiana Post Office Conducts Anthrax Drill Local emergency crews responded to a simulated anthrax incident Tuesday at a U.S. Postal Service site in Indiana, the Kokomo Tribune reported (see GSN, May 9). In the drill’s scenario, the Biohazard Detection System at the Kokomo post office identified the possible presence of anthrax in mail passing through the machine.  Alarms sounded, mail processing ceased and emergency responders in protective suits escorted personnel to a decontamination area outside. Workers rinsed off and underwent scrubbing in the decontamination tent and then proceeded to receive medical examinations.  Two people who volunteered to present additional medical situations — a heart attack and childbirth, respectively — were taken to a hospital. “It’s a good learning opportunity, especially for employees,” postal worker Kim Yates said. “This allows us to work with other agencies,” said Brad Myers, Kokomo assistant fire chief.  “We don’t always get to do a drill at the federal level like this.” The Kokomo exercise was part of a nationwide Postal Service program of emergency preparedness drills (Mike Fletcher, Kokomo Tribune, Aug. 20). Back to top

Cyanide Death Declared a Suicide A Canadian man found dead from cyanide ingestion in a Denver hotel last week committed suicide, the city coroner announced yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 18). Saleman Abdirahman Dirie, 29, was found with 1 pound of the lethal substance, raising the specter of possible terror threats to the approaching Democratic presidential convention in the city, the Ottawa Citizen reported. Denver police were quick to rule out a terrorism connection to Dirie’s death and have now closed the case. "We're done with the investigation now that we've got the coroner's results," Detective Sharon Hahn said (Brendan Kennedy, Ottawa Citizen, Aug. 20). Back to top       U.S. Seeks Comment on Plans to Burn CW Agent The U.S. Army announced yesterday that it has offered a two-day period for community members to comment on a permit request for chemical weapon destruction operations in Anniston, Ala. (see GSN, Aug. 4). The Army is seeking permission to conduct trial burns of mustard agent in its incinerator at the Anniston Army Depot.  Test burns using simulated agents have already been completed, according to a news release.  The facility is expected to conduct full mustard disposal operations after it completes its VX nerve agent elimination campaign in about one year. Members of the community can submit their comments by the close of business tomorrow.  A public hearing is also scheduled for today (U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency release, Aug. 20). Back to top

Russia Renews Threats to Poland, Czech Republic Russia yesterday threatened again that it would go beyond diplomatic means to respond to the U.S. missile defense program in Europe, the Xinhua News Agency reported (see GSN, Aug. 20). The warning arrived shortly after the top foreign officials from Warsaw and Washington signed a deal to place 10 U.S. missile interceptors in Poland.  The Czech Republic has already agreed to host an early warning radar (see GSN, July 8). “The radar station in the Czech Republic can ‘screen’ virtually the entire European part of our country, while the long-range antimissiles to be deployed in Poland do not have, and won't have in the foreseeable future, any other targets than the Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles,” according to a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry. “It is obvious to us, and the American leadership does not deny this, that the so-called third launch area of the U.S. missile defense system in Europe will be expanded and modernized. Russia in this case will have to respond and will not limit itself to diplomatic demarches,” the statement added. Russia has repeatedly said it would take military measures to address the perceived threat; a senior general last week said Poland could become a target of Russian missiles should it join the U.S. initiative. Bush administration officials have consistently argued that the European missile shield elements are intended to counter threats from nations such as Iran rather than Russia.  They said the small number of interceptors would provide no real defense against the vast Russian arsenal (Xinhua News Agency, Aug. 20). The timing of the agreement should not be seen as accidental, some analysts said.  It came as the Bush administration and NATO pressed for a complete pullout of the Russian military from Georgia (see GSN, Aug. 19). “The timing of the conclusion of the missile defense deal is anything but accidental,” Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Charles Kupchan told the Chicago Tribune.  “Now that the missile system is going forward, the deal takes on much sharper overtones from the Russian perspective.” The Georgia conflict could help overcome resistance in Congress to the Bush administration’s plan, the Tribune reported. “I think it helps the administration's case by creating a backdrop where geopolitical competition from all sorts has returned,” Kupchan said.  “On its merit, the war in Georgia is irrelevant to the debate over a missile defense system that is supposed to protect us from an Iranian strike.  But when a war is going on, the hard-line voices have an upper hand” (Aamer Madhani, Chicago Tribune, Aug. 21). The deal between Washington and Warsaw calls for the United States to support modernization of the Polish military and to install a Patriot air and missile defense battery in the European nation, Agence France-Presse reported. “The United States intends to begin this deployment in 2009 with the aim of establishing a garrison to support the U.S. Army Patriot battery by 2012,” according to a State Department statement.   “The government of Poland intends to provide an appropriate site, infrastructure, and facilities for this garrison acceptable to both countries.” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said last week that his nation would “start with a battery of Patriots under U.S. command, but made available to the Polish army. “Then there would be a second phase, involving equipping the Polish army with missiles," he added.  “In five, seven or 10 years we want to be sufficiently well-equipped and well-trained to be ready, with our allies but also by ourselves, to defend ourselves at a critical moment” (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Aug. 20). Back to top

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