By Greg Webb Global Security Newswire
VIENNA — Efforts to investigate alleged Syrian nuclear-weapon activities have been slowed by the recent killing of an intermediary working with international inspectors, the top U.N. nuclear official revealed today (see GSN, Sept. 23). The announcement came in the final seconds of this week’s meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 35-nation governing board, which had just completed a debate over the agency’s investigation into a Syrian facility that U.S. officials alleged to be a nuclear reactor that was destroyed in a Sept. 6, 2007, Israeli air strike. U.S. intelligence officials later offered evidence that the site near al-Kibar was a nearly operational plutonium production reactor intended to fuel a nuclear-weapon program (see GSN, April 25). The U.S. envoy to the agency, Gregory Schulte, today asked ElBaradei to provide “a comprehensive report” on his investigation before the board’s next meeting in November. Schulte criticized Syria for rejecting an agency request to revisit the nation after a June inspection. Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei, however, asked for patience from the board. “So far we have seen good cooperation. The reason that Syria has been late in providing additional information [is] that our interlocutor has been assassinated in Syria,” he told the board. “So that has created some complication.” The Syrian official was Brig. Gen. Mohammad Suleiman, a Western diplomat confirmed today. Suleiman was shot in the head at his seaside villa on Aug. 2 by a sniper positioned on an offshore boat, Reuters reported last month. ElBaradei also criticized the United States and Israel for failing to notify the agency of their suspicions before the Israeli attack. “I am quite concerned that with the gratuitous use of force,” he added. “Once the evidence has been eliminated, it becomes quite difficult for us to establish the facts.” “We are in a very awkward situation,” he continued, “because the corpse is gone. We are now in a state where we have to reconstruct a facility that is not there.” His report, ElBaradei emphasized, would be prepared when it was complete and no earlier. “The system will not be politicized, and I ask all of you not to jump the gun. Give us the time and you will get an assessment as fast as we can and when we are ready,” he told board members. ElBaradei’s comments brought a dramatic end to an otherwise predictable discussion of the investigation into Syria’s alleged reactor. Schulte pressed for more Syrian cooperation. “Syria’s concealment efforts, combined with the limits Damascus has placed on the IAEA’s investigation, beg the question: What does Syria have to hide? Can we be confident there are no other undeclared activities?” Schulte asked the board today. Earlier, the U.S. officials said the reactor appeared to be a North Korean design, suggesting it would be fueled with natural uranium and moderated with graphite. The facility was never declared to IAEA officials, and Syria has denied any nuclear ambitions while remaining generally quiet after the bombing. Testing on samples taken by IAEA officials in June have so far shown no tell-tale signs of uranium or graphite, a Western diplomat confirmed today, suggesting three possibilities: 1) Israel bombed the wrong site; 2) Syria effectively cleaned up the site over the nine months that passed before inspectors visited; or 3) Syria has not tried to build a nuclear reactor. However, the evidence offered by U.S. officials in April was compelling if the photographs are truly from the bombed facility, and Schulte today said Syria appears “to have violated its [IAEA] safeguards agreement.” Syria’s envoy to the agency today denied any covert nuclear activities while rejecting any further IAEA visits until complete test results have been returned from the first inspection, Deutsche Press-Agentur reported. He dismissed the U.S. pressure. “It’s the International Atomic Energy Agency, not the American Atomic Energy Agency,” said Syrian Ambassador Mohammad Badi Khattab. For his part, ElBaradei called for more cooperation from all parties. “Every state… has [a] duty to report, naturally, the construction of a nuclear facility, including Syria of course, but I also assure all those who spoke … that all of you have a duty share information with us … to enable to do our verification responsibly,” he told the board.
North Korea’s activities this week put it ever closer to resuming nuclear weapons operations, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Sept. 24). Pyongyang intends within a week to resume operations at the plant at its Yongbyon nuclear complex that produces weapon-grade plutonium from spent reactor fuel rods, the International Atomic Energy Agency announced yesterday. The regime has also barred IAEA personnel from the facility after they removed all seals and monitoring equipment. These moves could be the undoing of the 2007 agreement in which North Korea agreed to dismantle its nuclear sector in exchange for economic, diplomatic and security benefits from China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. However, some Bush administration officials believe this is another negotiating ploy intended to extract additional concessions. “They don’t have a lot of ways to get leverage, and this is one of them,” one official said. Since signing the denuclearization deal, Pyongyang had halted operations at Yongbyon, moved to disable the processing plant and other key facilities, and destroyed the cooling tower for its five-megawatt nuclear reactor. It expected to be removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, and freed from its accompanying economic sanctions, after issuing a months-late declaration of its nuclear activities and materials. The Bush administration, though, said that North Korea must first accept a protocol to verify the details of the declaration. The standoff on the protocol led Pyongyang last month to halt disablement activities and then to prepare for resumption of operations at Yongbyon. “It is, I think, more serious than just brinkmanship on the part of the North Koreans,” said Jack Pritchard, a former Korea envoy under the Bush administration. “They’re trying to recoup what they’ve given away for nothing, from their point of view.” Depending on the state of the processing facility, production could resume in a short period of time and it might only take weeks to create pure material, arms control experts said. North Korea would need between two and three years to collect new plutonium from the reactor, if it is put back into operations, the Times reported (Myers/Sciolino, New York Times, Sept. 25). The process might be stretched out if North Korea chooses to conduct testing at the processing plant, one expert told the Associated Press. “It’s a plant that handles a lot of liquids. They are reattaching a lot of equipment. They have to make sure they reattached them correctly and did the welds,” said David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security. However, if Pyongyang chooses to forgo testing, “it could happen as soon as next week,” he said. While the U.N. nuclear watchdog has been barred from the processing plant, it continues to monitor other nuclear facilities, one U.N. official told AP. Seals have also not been removed from spent fuel rods taken out of the reactor, though that is expected to change in short order (George Jahn, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 24). The Bush administration urged North Korea to stand down, the Times reported. “Everyone knows what the path ahead is,” said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. “The path ahead is for there to be agreement on a verification protocol so that we can continue along the path of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” The verification protocol is likely to be seen as absolutely necessary at the White House, said former Defense Department official Derek Mitchell. “I’m not sure any action can be taken, or is politically viable, without a demonstration of North Korean good faith,” he said. However, Washington could give more to promote the denuclearization process, he argued. Mitchell and other analysts expressed doubts about the likelihood of re-establishing the nuclear dismantlement process before the Bush administration closes shop in January (Myers/Sciolino, Times). “I don't expect any surprising last-minute breakthrough which would restore the (suspension)," International Crisis Group senior analyst Daniel Pinkston told Agence France-Presse. “The six-party process is in a long deep freeze, if not collapsing” (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, Sept. 25). China today called on all nations involved in the talks to “display flexibility to solve the verification issue,” AFP reported (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, Sept. 25). Meanwhile, a former tutor for North Korean leader Kim Jong Il said today that the Stalinist state “has piled up a considerable amount of enriched uranium,” AFP reported. Former Workers’ Party secretary Park Sun Yong, who defected in 1997, made the statement during a meeting in Seoul organized by a South Korean opposition party. The Bush administration has long claimed that Pyongyang was operating a secret uranium enrichment program, which the regime publicly denied (Agence France-Presse III/Spacewar.com, Sept. 25).
Iran could soon become capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium to power a nuclear weapon, the European Union told the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 35-nation governing board yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 24). EU nations said in a statement that Iran had previously engaged in activities aimed at nuclear weapons development, the Associated Press reported. Iran contends its nuclear program is strictly peaceful and has never involved nuclear-weapon research. Iran’s refusal to halt its uranium enrichment program in compliance with U.N. Security Council demands raises concern "because it brings us closer to the moment where Iran will have fissile materials for a weapon, if it chose to increase their degree of enrichment," said the statement released by France, which holds the alliance’s rotating presidency. While intelligence gathered by a U.N. nuclear watchdog probe into Iran’s nuclear ambitions "remains to be verified, the IAEA's exhaustive and detailed [findings] leads one to think that … Iran has methodically pursued a program aimed at acquiring the nuclear bomb," the statement said. Iran’s uranium enrichment centrifuges, now estimated at nearly 4,000, “appear to be running at approximately 85 percent of their stated target capacity, a significant increase over previous rates," said David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security. Iran is now using its growing enrichment capability to produce low-enriched uranium that can fuel nuclear power plants, but the Middle Eastern state could potentially tap the process to generate highly enriched uranium for use in a bomb. Albright said Iran would need at least 1,500 pounds of low-enriched uranium to produce enough material for one unsophisticated nuclear bomb; the nation now has nearly 1,000 pounds of the material. It “is progressing toward this capability and can be expected to reach it in six months to two years,” Albright said (George Jahn, Associated Press/Google News, Sept. 24). Iran’s envoy to the U.N. nuclear watchdog said yesterday that Tehran would reduce its future cooperation with the agency, Bloomberg reported. “I'm sorry to say that Iran has been too good, too transparent and too cooperative,” Ali Asghar Soltanieh told journalists yesterday, adding that Iran’s main enrichment facility at Natanz would remain open to international scrutiny. The agency has shown Iranian officials evidence that Tehran has pursued nuclear-weapon design research, Soltanieh said. “There were a tremendous amount of inconsistencies” in the evidence, he said, referring to faulty dates and inaccurate titles assigned to officials named in the documents (Jonathan Tirone/Bloomberg, Sept. 24).
The U.S. Defense Department has issued disciplinary messages to eight generals for allowing four nuclear missile fuses to be shipped to Taiwan, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, March 25). Six of the generals serve in the Air Force and two in the Army; they have ranks between one and three stars, serve in logistics positions and played some role in the unintentional export that occurred in 2006, sources said. Five of the Air Force generals received letters of admonishment or counseling, while the last officer received a more-serious letter of reprimand. The Pentagon issued relatively mild “memorandums of concern” to two brigadier generals who serve at the Defense Logistics Agency. Disciplinary letters are administrative in nature and might be removed from the recipient’s service record within two years. However, they can cause a loss in pay and make it harder for officers to move up in rank or responsibility, AP reported. The Pentagon also issued unspecified discipline to nine other Air Force officers below the rank of general. The shipment to Taiwan included no actual nuclear material, but drew a message of “strong displeasure” from China, which considers the island to be part of its territory. The incident came to light less than a year after Air Force personnel in North Dakota accidentally loaded nuclear-tipped cruise missiles on a bomber that then flew to Louisiana (see GSN, Sept. 5, 2007). The nuclear mishaps led to the dismissals in June of Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne and the service’s chief of staff, Gen. Michael Moseley. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has pledged to correct deficiencies in the Air Force’s handling of its nuclear mission. A report issued this month recommended creating a single Air Force command to oversee all nuclear operations (see GSN, Sept. 11; Lolita Baldor, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Sept. 24).
The top foreign officials from roughly 40 nations yesterday called on nine states to take the necessary action to allow the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty to enter into force (see GSN, Sept. 3). The pact that would create a global prohibition against nuclear test blasts cannot enter into force without being ratified by 44 nations that operated nuclear programs at the time they helped to establish the treaty in 1996. The remaining holdouts are China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the United States. The foreign ministers who met yesterday at the United Nations in New York issued a statement urging the nine nations to pursue ratification and, in the meantime, to maintain their voluntary suspension of nuclear testing. They argued that the stay in testing — last broken by North Korea in 2006 — “does not have the same permanent and legally binding effect as the entry into force of the treaty” (Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization release I, Sept. 24). Nations conducted more than 2,000 atomic test blasts between 1945 and 1996, when the United Nations approved the treaty, the Associated Press reported. An active treaty would strengthen nonproliferation and disarmament and act as a check on development of new nuclear weapons, according to the ministers’ statement. A verification system is being developed to ensure the treaty would not be violated. “The worst risk that we face is a nonstate actor with access to nuclear technology … proliferating nuclear technology,” said Costa Rican Foreign Affairs Minister Bruno Stagno Ugarte. Should Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) become the next U.S. president, the United States is likely to sign on to the treaty, said former Defense Secretary William Perry. “If [Obama] is elected I hope and expect that he will provide strong support for the project,” said Perry, an adviser to Obama (Slobodan Lekic, Associated Press/GMA News, Sept. 24). Burundi yesterday became the 145th nation to ratify the treaty (Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization release II, Sept. 25).
By Greg Webb Global Security Newswire
VIENNA — The International Atomic Energy Agency’s governing board yesterday applauded Libya as a model of cooperation with nuclear inspectors, a not-so-subtle nudge to Iran and Syria (see GSN, Sept. 12). Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei circulated a report last week announcing that his investigation of Libya’s nuclear past has been completed and that future agency activities there would be only routine. Libya renounced all WMD activities in 2003 after a shipment of nuclear equipment was seized on its way to Tripoli. The nation surrendered nuclear material, uranium enrichment centrifuges and other nuclear equipment, much of which is now stored in the United States under IAEA seals. Yesterday, the 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution thanking Libya for providing “as a voluntary measure, unrestricted and prompt access, to those locations, information and individuals deemed necessary by the agency.” That language emphasized the exact problems that ElBaradei has complained of regarding Iran. In a report to the board last week, he said Tehran has continued to hamper the agency’s investigation of past nuclear activities by withholding full cooperation (see GSN, Sept. 15). Similarly, Syria has denied agency requests to visit sites that could hold information about an alleged nuclear reactor that was destroyed last year by Israel (see GSN, Sept. 19). Gregory Schulte, U.S. ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, yesterday added to the board’s praise of Libya. “Libya provides an example of how a country can rebuild confidence after serious noncompliance,” he told reporters. “We hope that other countries under IAEA investigation take note.”
Pakistan hopes it can tap Chinese technology to build 10 new nuclear power stations over the next 22 years, the Press Trust of India reported (see GSN, Sept. 22). Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on Friday approved the construction of two nuclear facilities in Pakistan’s Punjab province. Sources said China was likely to assist in the construction of the plants. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari plans to request Chinese fuel technology for the 10 nuclear plants, which are expected to be placed at six sites around Pakistan, The News reported. Pakistan intends to build a nuclear fuel production site that would supply the new power facilities. The nation’s plans to expand its nuclear complex might come in response to a pending civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and India, Pakistan’s regional rival, PTI said (see related GSN story, today). While visiting the United States in July, Gilani called on Washington to offer Islamabad nuclear cooperation terms similar to those reached with New Delhi. "There should be no preferential (treatment), there should be no discrimination. And if they want to give civilian nuclear status to India, we would also expect the same for Pakistan too," Gilani said at the time (Press Trust of India/Rediff, Sept. 24).
The top foreign officials for the United States and Russia yesterday sought to discuss cooperative measures to address the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea without becoming sidetracked by tensions over Russia’s military conflict with Georgia last month, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Aug. 14). U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov remained cordial during the discussion at the U.N. headquarters in New York, said officials from each nation. "I agreed that we have to be pragmatic. We disagree on Caucasus but we decided not to make this situation a rock," Lavrov said. "Russian-U.S. cooperation is key, but after the very emotional reaction of the West and especially of the U.S. coming back to pragmatism would take some time.” "We discussed (North) Korea, Iran. These goals are unchanged. And it would be irresponsible to drop these issues because of disagreements on Caucasus," he said. "There was no shouting, table pounding, histrionics,” Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried said, adding that the meeting was productive. “The two ministers are professionals. … I would call it a polite, thorough exchange of views where the disagreements were quite clear” (Agence France-Presse/Google News, Sept. 25). Lavrov added that Moscow had withdrawn from a planned meeting this week of world powers to discuss Iran’s nuclear program because the United States would not convene a meeting of foreign ministers from the Group of Eight industrialized nations, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Sept. 24).. “You cannot really have it both ways, punishing Russia by canceling the forums that are very important for the entire world [while] at the same time demanding Russia's cooperation on the issues that are of importance to you," Lavrov said in a speech yesterday. The five permanent U.N. Security Council members and Germany have decided to pursue talks between lower-level officials on potential new sanctions against Iran, but a date for a new meeting has not been set (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, Sept. 25). Lavrov said that foreign minister-level talks on Iran would not occur again until “sometime down the road,” and warned that strained U.S.-Russian ties would “take some time” to abate, Bloomberg reported (Bill Varner, Bloomberg, Sept. 24). Germany’s top foreign official said yesterday that Russia might not return to the six-nation talks on Iran for the time being, the Associated Press reported. "That's how it will stay, that in the medium term the Russians will decline to take part in the (six-nation) talks on Iran," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said, adding that the dynamic between the countries was moving in the “wrong direction.” "I hope that we can return to the talks that we need," he said (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, Sept. 24).
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is set to meet with U.S. President George W. Bush today in Washington as U.S. lawmakers consider whether to approve a civilian nuclear cooperation deal between the countries, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Sept. 24). If Congress backs the its ratification, the deal would allow India to purchase U.S. nuclear fuel and technology in exchange for accepting international inspections of its civilian nuclear sites. The deal could be put off for a future U.S. administration to consider if Congress does not approve it before adjourning at the end of this week (Desmond Butler, Associated Press/Google News, Sept. 25).
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