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“If Iraq could acquire [highly-enriched uranium] somehow on the international black market, I think we’d have to assume that Iraq could make a bomb within weeks, months at the most.”
align=left style='text-align:left'>-- Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, testifying to the U.S. House International Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia.
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Speakers at the fourth day of a special five-day U.N. General Assembly debate yesterday expressed solidarity with the United States and called for multilateralism and a comprehensive approach in fighting terrorism after the Sept. 11 attacks.
Fijian Ambassador Amraiya Naidu called for strengthening dialogue. "This is our opportunity to seize the new culture of conflict prevention, driven by the secretary general, as a critical platform for member states to chart our destiny much closer towards international peace and security in the new millennium."
Maltese Ambassador Walter Balzan stressed multilateralism, while Portuguese Ambassador Francisco Seixas da Costa called for reflection and warned against "looking at the trees where a forest exists." Countries must act "simultaneously in all the different areas that may be relevant," Seixas da Costa said.
Swaziland and Ghana called for a high-level U.N. conference on the issue, while Iraqi Ambassador Muhammad Duri rejected reports of rejoicing in his country after the attacks (U.N. Newservice, Oct. 4).
For highlights from the United Nations of yesterday morning's session, click here. For the afternoon session, click here.
British Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock yesterday was named chairman of a new Security Council committee on terrorism, which will monitor implementation of a Sept. 28 council resolution on the financing of terrorism and cooperation in anti-terror efforts (U.N. Newservice II, Oct. 4).
Opposition Figure Blasts Vendrell As Afghans Eye U.N. Role
A key Afghan opposition figure, Hizbe Islami chief and former Prime Minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyr, has accused U.N. Afghanistan envoy Francesc Vendrell of cooperating with the United States, even before last month's attacks, in "actively pursuing a military plan to overthrow Taliban and install [former King] Zahir Khan [Shah] in their place" (News Network International/Karachi Business Recorder, Oct. 5).
Opposition commander Ismail Khan yesterday said the country's ruling Taliban, which harbors alleged terrorism mastermind Osama bin Laden, should be involved in governing Afghanistan even after their potential fall from power. "Americans must be more careful and attentive this time," he added. Eliminating bin Laden will not put an end to terrorism, he said, but "toppling the Taliban and creating a representative government will" (Agence France-Presse/Dawn, Oct. 5). Afghans living in opposition-controlled northern areas, though, told AFP the Taliban should have no role in a future government (Jean-Claude Chapon, AFP, Oct. 5).
Khan added that young men in Badghis and Goor provinces, where heavy fighting is taking place, are defecting in large numbers to the opposition (AFP/Dawn).
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw yesterday said the world will help rebuild Afghanistan if the Taliban falls (Associated Press/Miami Herald, Oct. 5).
U.S. Official Says Pre-emptive Strikes Could Smooth Aid Drops
A senior U.S. defense official said yesterday that pre-emptive strikes against Taliban air defenses could facilitate U.S. aid deliveries to the country. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld declined to comment (Jamie McIntyre, CNN.com, Oct. 4).
NATO countries yesterday agreed to a list of U.S. requests for measures including access to their airspace and ports and use of early warning aircraft. The measures are "not time limited," Secretary General George Robertson said (Suzanne Daley, New York Times, Oct. 5).
French Defense Minister Alain Richard said U.S. strikes are unlikely before several weeks. Important decisions have yet to be made by Washington and its allies, Richard said (Emmanuel Georges-Picot, AP/Nando Times, Oct. 4). Pakistani officials meanwhile said the United States may wait for the end of next week's meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Conference before attacking (Anwar Iqbal, United Press International, Oct. 5).
U.K., Pakistan Accuse Bin Laden As Countries Continue To Eye Roles
The United Kingdom yesterday released a report in which bin Laden is accused of being behind the attacks. According to the document, bin Laden warned of an attack "on or around Sept. 11" and called associates back to Afghanistan before the attack, while one of his most senior collaborators was "responsible for the detailed planning of the attacks" and some of the hijackers were members of bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network (Patrick Tyler, New York Times, Oct. 5). Prime Minister Tony Blair, who read part of the document to Parliament yesterday, is in Pakistan today as part of a diplomatic tour that will also take him to India and Oman (CNN.com, Oct. 5).
For the text of the U.K. document from the New York Times, click here.
U.S. evidence against bin Laden "certainly provides sufficient basis for indictment in a court of law," a Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman said yesterday (John Burns, New York Times, Oct. 5).
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said yesterday that Egypt will not commit troops to international antiterrorism efforts (AP/Nando Times, Oct. 4). Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov said Turkmenistan's military bases will not be used either (Xinhua News Agency, Oct. 5).
Association of Southeast Asian Nations ministers will discuss terrorism in Singapore next Tuesday through Thursday (Sa-nguan Khumrungroj, Bangkok Post, Oct. 5). Thai Senator Kraisak Choonhavan said ASEAN should not back U.S. action unless the U.N. General Assembly provides further authorization (Bangkok Post, Oct. 5).
Indonesia meanwhile has banned its citizens from fighting for the Taliban in a potential war with the United States (Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Oct. 5).
In a special session presided over by President Fidel Castro, Cuban lawmakers yesterday signed nine U.N. terrorism treaties (Anita Snow, AP, Oct. 4).
Mexican President Vicente Fox yesterday toured the ruins of New York's World Trade Center with Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Governor George Pataki. Fox also addressed the United Nations and spoke at a Catholic Mass. Mexico will cooperate with anti-terror efforts, he said, adding that it was too early to commit to providing military assistance (Alan Clendenning, AP, Oct. 5).
Doctors yesterday called for stronger international cooperation against chemical and biological warfare at a three-day Geneva meeting of the World Medical Association's governing council. They warned that casualties from such attacks could be greater than those from nuclear weapons (Clare Nullis, Associated Press, Oct. 4).
"The WMA called on governments to acknowledge and act on the extreme danger of chemical and biological weapons," the organization said in a statement at the opening of the meeting (Richard Waddington, Reuters/Yahoo! News, Oct. 4).
"We are deeply concerned about the possibility of future terrorist attacks making use of chemical or biological weapons, and we need a globally coordinated effort to prepare for such an event," said American Medical Association President Richard Corlin (Nullis, AP). "We have to increase our vigilance and improve coordination between military defense and medical areas. ... The level of readiness is only spotty. I don't think we have in place the systems needed" (Waddington, Reuters/Yahoo! News).
According to an AMA paper presented at the council, "The release of organisms causing smallpox, plague and anthrax could prove catastrophic in terms of the resulting illnesses and deaths compounded by the panic such outbreaks would generate. ... Given the ease of travel and increased globalization, an outbreak anywhere in the world could be a threat to all nations."
In the same paper, the AMA says governments need to educate the public about the risks of bioterrorism and warns that if such an attack were successful, its consequences "could far exceed those of a chemical or even a nuclear event." The potential misuse of advances in the genetic manipulation of organisms and biotechnology are of "special concern," the AMA says.
The U.S. association recommended that the WMA work with the World Health Organization and other health bodies to set up an "international consortium of medical and public health leaders to monitor the threat of biological weapons, to identify actions likely to prevent bioweapons proliferation, and to develop a coordinated plan for monitoring the worldwide emergence of infectious diseases."
The proposed declaration is expected to be formally adopted by the world association next year at its Washington assembly. This year's event, scheduled for New Delhi, was cancelled because of the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States. The organization represents 8 million doctors and medical associations in 70 countries, AP reports.
The organization's warnings come just one day after U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson told the U.S. Congress that the country's doctors are ready to deal with a bioterrorist threat and a month after the WHO issued a bioterrorism warning and urged governments to prepare themselves (Nullis, AP).
French authorities are investigating whether a September chemical plant explosion, previously considered an accident, may in fact have been a terrorist act. “A new piece of information reached us today which shows that there might have been a terrorist origin” to the explosion, Environment Minister Yves Cochet said yesterday. Twenty-nine people were killed in the explosion at the AZF chemical fertilizer plant in Toulouse on Sept. 21.
Police reported that Hassan Jandoubi, who had been hired to work at the plant only five days before the incident, was found dead at the scene wearing clothes “in the manner of kamikaze fundamentalists.” Other reports said that Jandoubi had argued with workers displaying the American flag the same morning as the explosion.
Prior to the latest developments, Toulouse’s prosecutor said he was “99 percent” sure that the explosion was an accident (Associated Press/South China Morning Post, Oct. 5).
New legislation making its way through the U.S. House of Representatives would direct the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to design new security requirements for nuclear power plants (see GSN, Sept. 25), according to the Boston Globe.
The bill, which passed by a voice vote in the House Energy and Commerce Committee yesterday, would give nuclear plant guards broader authority on carrying weapons, making arrest, and even the use of deadly force. The NRC would also have to issue new rules on a wider range of threats power plant operators must prepare for to get a license. These new threats include attacks from different groups at the same time, suicide attacks and attacks from aircraft.
“We cannot afford to sit until the terrorists target one of these facilities before we take action,” said Representative Edward Markey (D-Mass.), one of the bill’s sponsors (Josef Herbert, Associated Press/Boston Globe, Oct. 4).
Two U.S. senators introduced a bill Tuesday that would give federal, state and local governments $1.65 billion to respond to biological or chemical weapon attacks (see GSN, Oct. 4). The funds would help create vaccine stockpiles, improve chemical agent detection and increase training for law enforcement and rescue departments. The bill would also help improve public health agency coordination and increase hospital capacity to deal with outbreaks (Reuters/Yahoo! News, Oct. 3).
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Iraq is working steadily to rebuild its stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, so U.S policy should focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power, either through military force or a long-term solution, according to experts who testified yesterday before the U.S. House International Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia.
Even after the Gulf War, sanctions and inspections, Iraq still places a high value on weapons of mass destruction, said Charles Duelfer, former deputy executive chairman of UNSCOM, the special U.N. commission to dismantle Iraq’s weapon programs. Duelfer said the Iraqi military still values such weapons for two main reasons. First, Iraq believes that its use of chemical weapons the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s saved Iraq from defeat. Second, Duelfer said, Iraqi officials believe Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass destruction kept the United States from advancing all the way to Baghdad during the Gulf War.
Despite relinquishing many of its weapons of mass destruction to UNSCOM after the Gulf War, Iraq retains the capabilities to rebuild its weapons of mass destruction programs, Duelfer said. Remaining in Iraq are the production equipment and intellectual capital needed to resume work, according to Duelfer. “From what we are able to gather from many Iraqis who have left Iraq, these programs are still underway,” said Duelfer. “One can only assume that they continue to harbor ambitions of having a fill array of these weapons, including nuclear,” Duelfer said.
Iraq has a strong start in programs to build nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, according to Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. Iraq is self-sufficient in its biological program, according to Milhollin, meaning it has the strains, equipment and knowledge needed to make a biological weapon. “It is pretty much independent now of imports,” said Milhollin.
There are still supplies of chemical weapons in Iraq, according to Milhollin, including VX, the most lethal nerve agent. The exact quantities are unknown, but Iraq is capable now of producing more VX, said Milhollin, adding, “we don’t know what Iraq might be doing with respect to VX because we don’t have any inspectors in the country.”
Iraq also has a workable nuclear weapon design, which was discovered during inspections. The only missing component is 15 to 16 kilograms of high-enriched uranium, according to Milhollin. “If Iraq could acquire that somehow on the international black market, I think we’d have to assume that Iraq could make a bomb within weeks, months at the most,” said Milhollin.
Iraq has shown remarkable ingenuity in adopting dual-use equipment, such as medical equipment that is allowed under U.N. sanctions, for use in weapons of mass destruction programs, Milhollin testified. He cited the example of the German firm Siemens selling Iraq six medical machines in 1998 that are used to pulverize kidney stones. Inside each machine, according to Milhollin, is a high-precision switch that can also be used to detonate nuclear weapons. Iraq ordered 120 such switches as spare parts for the machines, but Siemens said they only supplied eight. “The State Department seems to think that Iraq got even more than that, and the last time I talked to the United Nations, they seemed to think there was a risk that the number was even higher,” Milhollin said.
The rise in Iraq’s nuclear capabilities may be spurring a similar increase in Iran, according to Geoffrey Kemp, director of regional strategic programs at the Nixon Center. Asked if Iran’s nuclear program was motivated by Iraq’s, Kemp replied, “Absolutely, and their chemical program and their biological program and their missile program. After all, Iran suffered from major chemical attacks from Iraq.” The dismantling of Iraq’s program would slow down Iran’s nuclear weapons development, according to Kemp.
“He Doesn’t Appear to be Suicidal … ”
While Iraq may be working to build weapons of mass destruction, their desires to use them seem to be lower, according to Duelfer. “One good thing about Saddam Hussein is that he doesn’t appear to be suicidal. And therefore, deterrence seems to work,” Duelfer said. The possibility of Iraq using chemical or biological weapons is not out of the question, however. Iraq’s biological warfare program and some research activities Iraqi scientists were involved indicated that Iraq was looking at ways to strike without having it traced back to them, according to Duelfer.
“I’ll just ask you to envision,” Duelfer told the committee, “If you went up to Saddam Hussein and said ‘Hey, boss, I’ve got a way of responding to the economic hardships that have been imposed on us by the United States; we can cause them some damage, and they will never be able to connect that to you,’ what would you do?”
No Option But To Prepare
All three experts agreed the best course for the United States was to actively pursue the overthrow of Hussein. “If there is substantial and persuasive evidence that Iraq was directly involved in the attacks on Sept. 11, the president has no option but to prepare for a major offensive against Iraq, including the use of military force,” Kemp said. “It’s purpose would be the removal of the regime in Baghdad.”
Whether done through direct military intervention, or through a long-range strategy, the committee was warned that any attempt to remove Hussein would be difficult. Bombings, while able to damage and demoralize the Iraqi military, would not be assured to overthrow the regime, Kemp said, and there was also no assurance that any overthrow form within Hussein’s regime would result in someone better.
All-out military action, such as an invasion, would be likely to prompt heavy backlash from other Muslims throughout the Middle East, and, “would reinforce Muslim radical basic tenets that we are intent on waging a war against Islam,” Kemp said. Guerrilla campaigns, as well, would run into difficulties with Iraq’s neighbors being unwilling to provide bases or support from behind their borders, according to Kemp.
Members of the committee voiced their support for removing Hussein from power. “Indeed, under the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998, it is official declared U.S. policy to change Iraq’s regime,” said subcommittee Chairman Benjamin Gilman (R-N.Y. “We do not of course want to unnecessarily complicate the struggle we are currently undertaking against Osama bin Laden and terrorists of his ilk, but our nation should be able to chew gum and walk at the same time” (Federal News Service transcript, Oct. 5).
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U.S. nuclear weapons and production facilities are vulnerable to terrorist infiltration, according to a Project on Government Oversight report to be released today, which found that the country’s 10 nuclear weapons facilities failed to stop mock terrorists in more than half of security drills conducted by U.S. military teams. The report is based on information from whistleblowers and classified Energy Department material.
U.S. Army and Navy teams acting as mock terrorists were able to penetrate facilities’ security and obtain nuclear material in several tests. “The mock terrorists gained control of sensitive nuclear material which, if detonated, would have endangered significant parts of New Mexico, Colorado and downwind areas” in an October 2000 drill at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, the report said.
In an earlier test at Los Alamos, an Army Special Forces team hauled away weapons-grade uranium in a garden cart. Navy SEALs in a test at the Rocky Flats site near Denver escaped with plutonium by cutting a hole in a chain link fence. In both cases, the teams stole enough material to build several nuclear bombs.
The security lapses were particularly worrisome because the facilities were warned that the drills would be taking place, said Danielle Brian, manager of the Project on Government Oversight. “These are tests where the security forces are necessarily dumbed-down so that they know the tests are coming,” Brian said. “They are very restrictive tests [but] they’re still losing half of the time.” (Hedges/Zeleny, Chicago Tribune, Oct. 5).
An explicit threat should be made as to when nuclear weapons will be used (see GSN, Sept. 21), according to conservatives unhappy with the Bush administration’s intentionally ambiguous policy, the Washington Post reported today.
Even some inside the Bush administration are at least sympathetic to the idea, which runs counter to long-standing U.S. policy, according to the Washington Post. “Under certain circumstances, very severe nuclear threats may be needed to deter any … potential adversaries,” said a January report by the National Institute for Public Policy. The report was written, in part, by: Stephen Hadley, now President George W. Bush’s deputy national security advisor, Robert Jospeh, the head of proliferation strategy at the National Security Council, and Stephen Cambone and Willaim Schneider Jr., Bush defense advisors.
Expanding the use of low-yield nuclear weapons is also being considered, according to the Washington Post. Such weapons could be used against chemical and biological weapons stockpiles or to penetrate bunkers buried deep underground. Smaller nuclear weapons should be part of a “fundamental rethinking of the role of nuclear weapons,” said a report last June by Stephen Younger, who has been chosen to head the Defense Department’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Any shift in U.S. nuclear weapons policy will first be apparent in the Nuclear Posture Review, which the Pentagon expects to deliver to Congress by the end of the year. Deterrence against weapons of mass destruction “is a crucial component” of the review, said Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Richard Meyers in his confirmation hearing last month. Meyers also said that the military already has a supply of low-yield nuclear weapons.
Some critics, however, oppose any shift away from the current ambiguity. “We’ve purposefully avoided drawing bright lines in the past about when we might use nuclear weapons,” said a former senior Clinton administration official. “If we change that now, it would upset a lot of our core NATO allies, not to mention others in the coalition against terrorism we’re trying to build” (Dana Milbank, Washington Post, Oct. 5).
North Korea and the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization are expected to hold negotiations by the end of this year on the final stages of the 1994 Agreed Framework, a South Korean official said Wednesday.
Because “the United States [has] recently eased its suspicion of North Korea,” the official said, KEDO should soon be able to complete its proposal on the details of delivering the final core components to the light-water reactors it is building in North Korea. Once the KEDO proposal is ready, negotiations can begin (Yonhap, Oct. 3 in FBIS-EAS, Oct. 3).
LUXOFT, a Russian information technology firm, signed an agreement on Tuesday with the National Nuclear Security Administration to be the first major Russian company to take part in the Initiatives for Proliferation Prevention program (IPP). The program works to train Russian nuclear weapon scientists in commercial software applications for peaceful purposes. “LUXOFT is excited to be working with NNSA in its cooperative nonproliferation efforts,” said Anatoly Karachinsky, founder and chief executive officer of LUXOFT’s parent company IBS Group.
LUXOFT, as well as its U.S. partner CTG, Inc., will train 500 nuclear professionals from the Kurchatov Institute, the largest nuclear research facility in Russia. The program has four stages: trainee selection, external basic training, target conversion training at LUXOFT and provision of employment. After the initial nine-month program, LUXOFT plans to expand the number of trainees at Kurchatov and then train scientists at other nuclear weapon facilities.
“The LUXOFT project with Kurchatov epitomizes the goal of the IPP program by turning former weapons scientists into computer programmers,” said Steven Black, Energy Department acting assistant deputy administrator for Arms Control and Nonproliferation (U.S. Industry Coalition release/U.S. Newswire, Oct. 2)
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A 63-year-old man from Lantana, Florida, is critically ill with inhalation anthrax, the deadliest form of the disease that has been developed for use as a biological weapon. U.S. officials said the man most likely contracted the disease through natural means, not from a terrorist attack (Rick Weiss, Washington Post, Oct. 5).
Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson said yesterday the case is isolated and there is currently no evidence that a terrorist attack caused the man’s illness. He reminded the public that anthrax does not spread from person to person. He said the public should continue about daily life in a normal way and go to a doctor if they have a severe respiratory problem. He said his department has enough antibiotics, which he said could treat anthrax, for 2 million people for 60 days (see GSN, this issue).
Thompson said the speed with which health institutions alerted the authorities to the case showed that “our health reporting system worked in a very timely fashion” (see GSN, Oct. 1). After the patient was diagnosed with anthrax, health officials notified the state health department, which notified the Centers for Disease Control and the FBI. Both agencies are investigating the man’s whereabouts over the last few weeks to determine the source of the disease.
Thompson said anthrax cases occur sporadically in the United States, but added, “they’re very rare.” He said the most recent reported cases were one in Texas within the last year and another in Florida in 1974 (White House briefing, Oct. 4). Only 18 cases of inhaled anthrax have occurred in the United States in the last century. A 1999 Journal of the American Medical Association issue said that the disease is so rare, “that even a single case [is] cause for alarm today” (Washington Post, Oct. 5).
The Washington Times reported that Florida doctors said the man’s case is likely to be fatal (August Gribbin, Washington Times, Oct. 5).
The United States has plans to distribute medicine for some diseases in case of a bioterrorist attack, but several obstacles to a successful response remain, according to current and former U.S. officials.
In the event of a biological attack, the government will immediately ship 50-ton packages of medical supplies able to treat 10,000 to 35,000 people to local hospitals on the first day of response. These supplies are stored at eight sites around the country. After the initial shipment, authorities will ship more supplies from other stockpiles and sources and begin emergency production.
The United States currently has antibiotics to treat 2 million anthrax cases and has plans to stockpile enough for 10 million people, according to government officials (see GSN, this issue). There are also caches of antibiotics, such as streptomycin and gentamicin, to treat other diseases, such as the plague.
Experts are trying to find ways to overcome remaining obstacles. One of the largest problems is quickly identifying an outbreak, as some diseases incubate for days to weeks. The Sept. 11 attacks, however, have raised awareness. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Director Jeffery Koplan said a Florida state lab worker recently trained by the CDC tested the blood of a man in Florida who became ill with anthrax this week and sounded the alarm (see GSN, this issue). Koplan said that might not have happened before the Sept. 11 attacks.
Another obstacle is deciding who distributes drugs to whom and how to mobilize workers in the case of a crisis. New York has set up 300 potential distribution points, and if all 300 locations were needed, 40,000 workers would have to staff them, bioterrorism specialist Jerry Hauer said (Lauran Neergaard, Associated Press/Miami Herald, Oct. 5).
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The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the lead international agency responsible for monitoring chemical weapons destruction, is unable to conduct even half its scheduled inspections this year because of lack of funds (see GSN, Oct. 2). Jose Bustani, director general of the organization, said only 42 of the 98 planned inspections of military chemical weapons facilities have been carried out this year.
The organization also planned 132 inspections of commercial chemical plants but has only inspected 61 facilities and has no money to continue.
Bustani said the 143 states party to the Chemical Weapons Convention have failed to provide sufficient funding. “We requested $70 million for this year, and $60 million was approved, but we received so far only $54 million,” he said.
The organization also lacks funding to provide meaningful response to a chemical weapons attack. A response team would need portable hospitals or buses, specialized medical staff and equipment, decontamination equipment, and access to cargo planes or other modes of transportation. “At the moment, all this is still theoretical, all we have is a list of phone numbers and money that would last less than 48 hours,” Bustani said (Marlise Simons, New York Times, Oct. 5).
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Orbital Sciences Corporation won a $22 million contract from the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command for work on the liquid booster target system yesterday. Orbital will complete the design and development of its liquid propellant booster concept, integrate and test the system and perform a static firing of the booster engine.
The objective of the program is to develop a liquid booster system to serve as a target U.S. missile defense systems under development.
“The benefits of a liquid propulsion-based target vehicle [include] a more accurate representation of today’s potential hostile weapons systems and affordability and safety in production, handling and flight test operations,” said Michael Bender, senior manager of business development for Orbital’s launch systems groups (Orbital release, Oct. 4).
Russia plans to deploy new mobile missile attack warning systems that use less energy and smaller crews, said Colonel General Anatoly Perminov, head of the Russian space forces, on Wednesday. As part of the new systems, higher quality defense satellites will be launched in 2002, Perminov said (Interfax, Oct. 3 in FBIS-SOV, Oct. 3).
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